Changelog
Monthly chronological list of recent major writings/
This page is a changelog for Gwern.net: a monthly reverse chronological list of recent major writings/
changes/ additions. Following my writing can be a little difficult because it is often so incremental. So every month, in addition to my regular subreddit submissions, I write up reasonably-
interesting changes and send it out to the mailing list in addition to a compilation of links & reviews (archives). For shortform writings, see the blog index; for a feed of recently-
added links & references, see the “newest links” page.
2025
March 2025
Blog:
Wolfe’s short story “The Fat Magician”: inspired by Marx Brothers’ A Night at the Opera?
Gwern.net: Large-File Support added & began uploading & replacing all filehost links; bidirectional footnotes; 2025 April Fools & randomization feature
February 2025
Gwern.net: new “blog” for off-site writings; similarly, new
/
/ref URLs for searching or linking individual annotations (eg. et al2025); improved 404 page; new outline-or-not PHP script for reducing figure over-outlining; sidenotes easter egg
January 2025
Gwern.net: improved fraction handling;
italicizer.py
: automatically add appropriate italics to plain text strings lacking them, like book titles
2024
December 2024
Ideas: Towards Benchmarking LLM Diversity & Creativity; Hierarchical Embeddings for Text Search
Constrained Writing: Second Life Sentences; Better Trajectoid Words; Un-Biblical Sentences
Gwern.net:
ordinal ‘progress indicator’ clock-like metadata icons (for any 0–100% data)
keybindings & clickable icons: help cheatsheet, search, minimizing, dark-mode cycling, reader-mode cycling, return-to-homepage; popup minimization; access keys; 2 metadata icons
November 2024
October 2024
Gwern.net: new Halloween dropcaps
September 2024
Idea: error-ensuring codes for synthetic media watermarking; hybrid LLMs: conditioning AR LLMs on diffused embeddings
Why do cats bite spontaneously or during petting? Maybe you accidentally look like prey
text2epositive.py
: experimental GPT-4 script for rewriting English statements from negation to affirmativesGwern.net: revised index page & header (screenshot); enabled help page & popup window manager keybindings
August 2024
It’s still a good time to write online, but also Why To Not Write A Book; and how I write
East Asian cat/
earwax survey (“yes”)Gwern.net:
date-guesser.py
: a LLM script to try to extract dates from arbitrary text input;daterange-checker.py
; towards a useful RSS feed
July 2024
Gwern.net: experimental date-range subscripts; archive system default reverted back to local archives now that JS hides rewrites to original URL for copy-paste/
clicking; 404 page now offers guesses based on Levenshtein distance of broken URL to other URLs in the sitemap; image thumbnail optimization for popups/ mobile
June 2024
May 2024
April 2024
Gwern.net: authors are now hyperlinked; Google CSE site-search has been restored (magnifying-glass icon in theme togglebar,
/
keybinding), but later removed; April Fools easter egg
March 2024
InvertOrNot.com, Mattis Megevand: a NN-powered API for whether to invert images in a website dark-mode
Gwern.net: use of InvertOrNot.com in dark-mode; correct date-sorting on “newest links”; links created/
modified in past 2 months now get special black-star symbol to highlight novelty ( = ‘changed’); large tables now have sticky headers & scroll-in-place; adblock PSA
February 2024
Gwern.net: new file-transclusion feature—browse images/
videos/ documents in the annotations & tag-directories (eg. Midjourney, DALL·E 3); +video thumbnails; new ‘GTX’ text format to replace YAML; GPT-4-V demos: image-margin-checker.py
,invertornot.py
January 2024
2023
December 2023
N/
A
November 2023
October 2023
Idea: make an ‘InvertOrNot.com’ (a simple, useful, but missing web API)
Idea: lobby webserial/
comic sites to make more use of ‘prefetch’/‘preload’ for faster reading Gwern.net: dropcaps: extended to support bitmap graphics, and randomized selection (used in Halloween & Christmas-mode, and for the new ‘dropcats’ dropcap set we made for cat-related pages); improved Halloween & Christmas-mode with generated logos; scrolling now disables popups temporarily
September 2023
August 2023
indent/
justification A/ B test finished (usual too-small-to-measure) Gwern.net: widescreen-desktop floating section ToC/
scrollspy
July 2023
June 2023
On The Impossibility of Knowledge of Retrocognitive Knowledge
Gwern.net: ‘sort by magic’ of similar-links & tags using embeddings (with auto-tagging); +interview formatting support; margin note aggregation at beginning of sections;
latex2unicode.py
May 2023
Idea: DRL free-play
Gwern.net: ‘demo mode’: show readers a label or feature n times, and then stop (primary use: animate the theme toggle collapsing, and label collapsed blocks, so they learn what those are, and then hide those); +inline-collapses
April 2023
March 2023
Design: on the popup systems on the link-icons; on the local archives; outbound link-tracking post-mortem
Trying out Japanese tanka poetry with GPT-3 (
davinci-002
feels almost as creative asdavinci
but more tractable, while not being creatively useless like ChatGPT-3)Gwern.net: header-based redesign of desktop theme; within-section backlinks; backlinks can now display original context
February 2023
January 2023
Gwern.net:
moved domains; image/
doc hierarchy merged new Quote/
Site/ Annotation X-of-the-Day feature
2022
December 2022
N/
A
November 2022
Mirror: ISIS propaganda magazine Rumiyah
Gwern.net: print mode CSS: looks much better, pages should print reasonably now (eg. icons aren’t screwed up, transclusions expand so nothing is lost, layout looks like regular pages more)
October 2022
Dynamic programming solutions to “52 Cards Win a Dollar” puzzle
Gwern.net: special occasions mode: Halloween (rubrication)
September 2022
August 2022
Gwern.net:
new dynamic lazy transclusions:
transclude.js
sidenotes/
margin notes: margin notes now appear exclusively in the left column and sidenotes in the right column, to keep visual simplicity and emphasis the left-to-right summary → detail hierarchical reading
July 2022
N/
A
June 2022
Gwern.net: ‘partial’ annotation popups (enhancement of live-links)
May 2022
Gwern.net: popup system rewrite (faster & rendering now independent of page length using shadow DOM)
April 2022
Gwern.net: switched full cross-page live popups back to scraped thumbnail+abstracts+ToCs for performance; unified annotation tags & legacy essay tag system; removed auto-smallcaps, Disqus; experiment with commissioned art for Batman story
March 2022
It Looks Like You’re Trying To Take Over The World (with use of new “reader-mode” eg.)
Questions: Why does microwave tea taste bad?; Indo-Chinese numerical rhetoric
Gwern.net: new reader-mode (hides most of UI until hover/
Alt-key or mode disabled, for text-centric reading; control: )
February 2022
Gwern.net: backlinks & similar-links now recursively pop up; experimental Ar5iv use; wrote GPT-3-using
paragraphizer.py
tool & used to add line-breaks to ~1k annotations; link icon system rewrite (faster, better+test-suite, >220 new link icons); live link popup system rewrite (similarly, >850 domains to popup);
January 2022
2021
December 2021
Gwern.net: GPT-3-powered “similar links” feature added to popups/
indexes
November 2021
October 2021
compiled 40 subject-area tags
September 2021
Gwern.net: link bibliographies re-enabled; new server
August 2021
July 2021
Gwern.net: “link tags” added
June 2021
Refactored 60 pages
LinkAuto.hs: a Pandoc library for automatically turning user-defined regexp-matching strings into links (discussion)
May 2021
April 2021
March 2021
Gwern.net: mobile “popins” are finally enabled! (example); new Wikipedia popups (this 7th implementation enables recursive WP popups)
February 2021
Gwern.net: popups: can now be moved, stickied, and full-screened (another step towards our ambition of Windows-95-in-the-browser!)
January 2021
Danbooru2020: A Large-Scale Crowdsourced & Tagged Anime Illustration Dataset
Gwern.net: +return-to-top floating button; popups: can now be disabled (use the ‘gear’ icon); final reimplementation (dynamic JS now; memoizing the recursive inlining, however clever & elegant, turns out to have painful edge-cases & still not be efficient enough—web browsers really don’t like loading hundreds of kilobytes of extra HTML)
2020
December 2020
November 2020
Gwern.net: dark-mode rewrite complete (fixes page load flash & laggy scrolling) arabesque navigation bar in footer with JS keyboard shortcuts; IBM Plex Mono font & custom ALGOL-like syntax highlighting for code blocks; new sun/
moon icons for horizontal rulers; images in Wikipedia popups; new internal link/ citation convention for multiple citations
October 2020
more Gwern.net fixes of infelicities & outdated infrastructure: major ones: line-breaking on slashes, hyphenation & justified text on Chrome desktop browsers using Edward Kmett’s
hyphenation
at compile-time1; width-full mobile images; rewrote GoodReads conversion for much more readable book review page; browsable directories; popup annotations now render more like body.Dark mode users should have noticed it’s improved considerably; most of the other fixes either are more subtle (consistency, correct formatting, edge-cases, bold rather than italics), or rewriting old hacks to pay off technical debt. In general, it should just look nicer and more pleasant, and be a little easier for me to write.
Minor ones:
compiled all movie & anime reviews
September 2020
Gwern.net: dark mode image handling fixed (images are inverted based on automated heuristic + manual tagging); annotations can now be ‘definitions’ (popup annotations for non-link text); expanded tooltips as fallback for link annotations; bolded abstracts & revised list hierarchy to use bold; changed all dates to YYYY-MM-DD for consistency; added missing link icons for 7 domains, fixed spacing & overlapping, and harmonized opacity of all link icons; Pandoc now uses MathJax directly, enabling colored equations; internal links to a previous or later section now point up or down (respectively) as a navigation aid; experimental use of instant.page prefetching; asterism instead of horizontal ruler; simplified mobile appearance; many miscellaneous bug fixes
August 2020
July 2020
TWDNEv3.5: GPT-3 text-snippets upgrade
June 2020
May 2020
Ganbooru prototype: 256px BigGAN trained on Danbooru2019; Danbooru2019 Figures dataset released
Gwern.net:
The newsletter moved to Substack due to reaching the TinyLetter 5,000-subscriber limit
popups.js
: +support for reverse-footnote popups
April 2020
March 2020
Gwern.net: dark mode theme switcher; relocated from S3 to Nginx, please report any server bugs like inaccessible pages
February 2020
Gwern.net:
added features:
new local link archive feature (uses SingleFile)
“admonitions” & multi-column lists (Markdeep-inspired);
auto-smallcaps plugin
removed features:
<q>
quote syntax highlighting due to maintenance/annotation burden; removed PNG preview popups due to low screenshot quality (the Web is why we can’t have nice things) & many reader complaints
January 2020
Danbooru2019: A Large-Scale Crowdsourced & Tagged Anime Illustration Dataset
This Waifu Does Not Existv3: 100k StyleGAN 2 anime portrait samples
2019
December 2019
On Correlation & Causality in the Social Sciences (see also my Replication Crisis bibliography)
Gwern.net: Tufte-CSS margin notes support (glossing experiment—demonstrations in Folk-Music/
Hydrocephalus/ GoodReads/ Internet Search Tips)
November 2019
Gwern.net: reverse citation links now available in popups via Jose Luis Ricon’s new Semantic Scholar search engine (which prioritizes reviews/
meta-analyses which cite a given paper)
September 2019
On Selective Emigration and Personality Trait Change in Scandinavia
Gwern.net: added Bitcoin support to
Inflation.hs
; CSS optimizations to cut mobile load time by half; width-full image support
August 2019
Gwern.net:
popups.js
: a new JS library which reads link annotations and displays them in a popup (eg. WP displays title/summary, and papers display title/ author/ date/ abstract); works on mobile; generalizes & obsoletes wikipedia-popups.js
:popups.js
reads static annotations, removing the runtime spam, and importantly, annotations are now cached at compile-time, so additional sources can be included. It currently provides link annotations for Arxiv, bioRxiv, Pubmed Central, Crossref, Gwern.net, and hand-written annotations, in-popup YouTube video support, with a fallback to Chrome/Ghostscript-generated screenshot previews for all other URLs added more custom-SVG/
text link icons for link icons (custom: arXiv/ BioRxiv (unofficial), Google Scholar, Pubmed, Internet Archive, Guardian, NYT, New Yorker, Washington Post, DeepMind, OpenAI, MIRI, Erowid)
July 2019
Gwern.net: tooltip popups for Wikipedia article summaries (
wikipedia-popups.js
)
June 2019
May 2019
TWDNEv2: upgraded anime faces to ‘portrait’ samples (bigger crops of faces, showing ears/
hats etc) & some 345M plot summaries; GPT-2 poetry: upgraded to 345M (plus new “nucleus sampling” generation)
April 2019
Gwern.net: deprecated RSS (replaced by the newsletter); added “dark mode” support for Safari/
FF (inverts colors for night reading on browsers supporting new CSS media query)
March 2019
Finetuning the GPT-2-117M Transformer for English Poetry Generation
Glue Robbers: Sequencing Nobelists Using Collectible Letters
rewrote “The Gift of the Amygdali”
Gwern.net CSS changes: Tufte-style sidenotes (for displaying footnotes in margins on wide screens) via Said Achmiz’s new JS library,
sidenotes.js
; static compilation of MathJax’s rendering of MathML math viamathjax-node-page
(enables math for JS-disabled users & eliminates the <5s rendering time on math-heavy pages like the embryo selection page); added support for dropcaps (Goudy Initialen, yinit, Deutsche Zierschrift; Cheshire; Kanzlei; other examples) for thematic emphasis; disabled Disqus ads; second ad A/B test ended, so disabled banner ad; prototype automatic inflation-adjustment of dollar amounts via new Hakyll plugin; outdent headers & left shift H1 headers for scannability; more Tufte-style tables with different styling for small/simple tables vs complex width-full tables; better highlighting on ToC; image-focus.js
now runs in slideshow mode; Wikipedia link annotations; resized & optimized images with advpng/mozjpeg
February 2019
Gwern.net CSS/
HTML/ JS changes: click-to-zoom images (using image-focus.js
); headers are now self-links; Tufte CSS-style epigraph support; Table of Contents: Wikipedia-style section numbering, margin & size tweaks, lightweight subset of Source Sans Pro (for Mac users); nicer diamond list icons; sleeker sidebar (especially nice on mobile); PDF/internal/ section links are now annotated with icons; borders on tables, image figures, and blockquotes; old-style numerals in text & tabular numerals in tables; justified text (but not in Chrome due to decade-old lack of hyphenation); narrowed maximum body-width in characters & made line-height responsive to body-width (hopefully addresses the perennial complaints that pages are always too wide/ too narrow/ lines too close); quote highlighting disabled by default; collapsible code-blocks; inline smallcaps support; optimized SVG logo & favicon; page-specific CSS overrides enabled; list paragraph bugs in Pandoc fixed; compressed JPEGs; changed code syntax-highlighting scheme to match overall esthetics better; miscellaneous responsive design/ mobile improvements image-focus.js
(JS): release of new, correct, lightweight, dependency-free JS library written by Said Achmiz for implementing “click to zoom” on images (useful for large images/graphs)
January 2019
Danbooru2018 released: a dataset of 3.33m anime images (2.5tb) with 92.7m descriptive tags
Gwern.net CSS/
JS changes courtesy of Said Achmiz: implemented collapsible sections for hiding digressions/ especially large sections, for more readable pages; more varied headers to convey the semantic hierarchy; added use of a lightweight subset of Source Serif Pro, as a better Baskerville font with real small caps; improved font selection on Macs; minimized MathJax library use, for faster loading The Tragedy of Grand Admiral Thrawn (why he had to be assassinated at the end of the Thrawn trilogy)
2018
December 2018
Internet Search Tips: effective use of Google/
Google Scholar/ Libgen & other resources for papers/ books/ pages (I’m also offering bounties for papers/ books I haven’t been able to get )
November 2018
Cat Sense, 2013: Are We Good Owners? (on cat psychology, genetics, domestication, & dysgenics)
Embryo selection: FAQ, multi-stage selection, chromosome/
gamete selection , optimal search of batches, & robustness to error in utility weightsUrban Area Cost-of-Living as Big Tech Moats & Employee Golden Handcuffs (speculations on Bay Area real estate & SV’s future)
October 2018
September 2018
June 2018
May 2018
ZMA sleep self-experiment (inconclusive but suggestive of benefits)
Bacopa quasi-experiment (no correlates)
April 2018
March 2018
moved newsletter from MailChimp to TinyLetter due to exorbitant MailChimp fees
February 2018
Danbooru2017: a new dataset of 2.94m anime images (1.9tb) with 77.5m descriptive tags
tweaked Gwern.net SVG logo courtesy of Kezarin Brando
January 2018
2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
Gwern.net updates: Google AdSense banner ads removed (due to initial analysis of A/
B test results); URL scheme changed to replace spaces by hyphens & delete commas/ apostrophes (due to persistent user error); footer moved to sidebar; re-tagging pages; font/ CSS tweaked for faster loads & wider margins; hosted documents reorganized & expanded with personal archives; began buying & scanning all cited books to provide fulltexts; added sitemap generation to expose fulltexts to search engines
July 2017
June 2017
April 2017
March 2017
Gwern.net: HTTPS now mandatory; HTML sections rewritten using HTML5 semantic markup for hopefully better compatibility with screen readers & offline browsers like Pocket/
ReadItLater; “importance” metadata added to all pages to rank them; “belief” metadata renamed more intuitively as “confidence”; finish adding 301 Redirects for all broken links & common typos; renamed & all darknet market pages for current terminology; rewrote Patreon profile
February 2017
January 2017
2016
December 2016
compiled my epigrams
Gwern.net: CSS, logo, and index page redesigns; redirects for broken incoming URLs; scripts & YAML updates for upstream Pandoc/
Hakyll changes
November 2016
switched Gwern.net to HTTPS
October 2016
September 2016
frequency of catnip response in cats: a meta-analysis (and launched a survey to expand the dataset)
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
Wikipedia article on Genome-wide complex trait analysis (GCTA)
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
2015
December 2015
October 2015
September 2015
modafinil user survey (ran 2015-09-26–2015-10-26)
Value of Information for suicide (example cost-benefit analysis of weakly predicting suicide)
July 2015
A/
B tests: finished metadata test; proposal towards recurrent neural network for reinforcement learning of CSS Air conditioner upgrade cost-benefit analysis
Gwern.net:
switched to Patreon for donations
optimized website loading (removed CSE, A/
B testing, non-validating XML, outbound link-tracking; simplified Disqus; minified JS, and fully async/ deferred JS loading)
June 2015
rewrote Gwern.net CSS to be mobile-friendly; should now be readable in an iPhone 6 browser
wrote two summer poems, on earthworms and the rain
May 2015
DNM arrests compilation finished & summaries calculated
analysis of Effective Altruists’ donations as reported in the LW survey
March 2015
LLLT self-experiment finished: no effect (so earlier correlative results were grossly overestimated; I’m starting to expect this from anything non-randomized…)
an ICE subpoena on my Reddit account caused me a good deal of trouble
playing with inferring Bayesian networks for my Zeo & body weight data (powerful generalization of SEMs, but requires a lot of data before networks stabilize)
February 2015
DNM arrests: split out of Silk Road page & began bringing up-to-date with all known incidents across all markets
electric vs stove kettle boiling-time analysis: collected some simple data on my kettles & demonstrated some statistics tools on the dataset like a Bayesian measurement-error model
January 2015
A/
B tests: no positive results from sidebar test; set up in-page metadata format
2014
December 2014
Nothing finished.
November 2014
A/
B indentation test : no real result, defaulted to 2em
October 2014
QS:
Redshift self-experiment: screen-reddening software shifts bedtime forward by 20 minutes
LLLT re-analysis: no change in sleep as hypothesized by another LLLT user
analysis of sceaduwe’s spirulina/
allergies self-experiment (no reduction in allergies)
September 2014
QS:
Noopept experiment (no benefits)
Treadmill spaced repetition experiment: expanded analysis to cover treadmill’s impact on successive reviews with SEM (no additional damage to recall beyond that implied by the original damage)
Stats:
anthology on how everything is correlated
probability/
gerontology problem: can one visit 566 centenarians before any die? No.
Technology:
My window tracker/
time-logger of choice is arbtt which records X window info for later classification and analysis; but one of the challenges is you don’t know how to set up arbtt or improve your environment or write classifications rules. So I wrote a tutorial. Time-lock crypto: wrote a Bash implementation of serial hashing time-lock crypto, link to all known implementations of hash time-lock crypto
August 2014
Nootropics: initial results on LLLT, correlates with large increases; began followup randomized experiment
purchased a North Paw compass belt
July 2014
QS/
lithium orotate experiment finished: no effects positive or negative
magnesium citrate experiment finished: initial benefits but apparent cumulative overdose led to net negative effect and mixed effects on sleep
sleep correlations:
alcohol: no harm
optimal bedtime: a little earlier than usual
optimal wakeup time: a little earlier than usual
Statistics:
do causal networks explain why correlation ≠ causation is so often true?
a little example of estimating scores from censored data
Debunking:
Misc:
humorous little essay on The Matrix
how I gather & organize my information in Evernote & elsewhere
Site:
finished floating footnotes test: no apparent harm, as hoped
began paragraph indentation test (responding to anonymous complaint)
June 2014
finished & analyzed caffeine-pill wakeup pilot trial, began blinded self-experiment
BeeLine Reader A/
B test finished : no version performed statistically-significantly bettercompiled & expanded selection of my poems
May 2014
short interview with Mike Powers on current darknet markets
April 2014
an anonymous user sent in a fanfiction about Satoshi Nakamoto, which was too good to simply delete
I have posted the past issues of the newsletter online:
March 2014
Bitcoin:
Tech:
BeeLine Reader A/
B test
February 2014
Radiance: finished.
Public release of the Mnemosyne spaced repetition dataset (18GB of 121.2m flashcard reviews, collected ~2004–10201411ya)
verse: obituary for my dog; a poem apropos the end of Genshiken Nidaime
A/
B testing: header capitalization finished (result: upcase title & all section headers); began table of contents placement
January 2014
Darknet markets:
I have begun systematically spidering all operational English darknet markets
General:
Haskell Summer of Code: 2013 review
Statistical:
font/
number size & table of contents background AB test finished, with consideration of value of interactions
Radiance:
diff of “Radiance” and part I of Radiance
Site:
2013
December 2013
Darknet markets:
compiled an updated table of all known darknet markets with lifetimes
wrote up an essay on 3 attempts to blackmail/
extort/ scam
Statistical:
analyzed a self-experiment about low level laser therapy improving reaction time
power simulation of the penalty from omitting key covariates in A/
B testing
Radiance:
transcribed novella “Radiance”
transcribed & annotated the autobiographical essay Old Legends by Gregory Benford on his physics career, SF & science, the “Star Wars” program, Edward Teller, etc
tracked down and scanned a copy of The Astounding Investigation: The Manhattan Project’s Confrontation with Science Fiction (1984, Analog)
Personal:
Site:
signed up for MailChimp & started a monthly mailing list for Gwern.net updates
my Gratipay is up to $10.99$7.352013 a week. I thank all donators.
November 2013
Another busy month:
DNB meta-analysis: corrected multiple mistakes based on Redick’s review
Lunar cycle effect on sleep: split out, acquired 2 other Zeo users’ data, expanded into a multi-level model & power analysis (Cajochen still has not responded)
Modafinil: price table update
Silk Road:
estimating DPR’s net fortune based on the FBI numbers
Darknet market survival analysis
publicly betting Sheep & BMR to shut down soon (which was vindicated even quicker than expected)
Mike Power email interview
BBC Radio 5 interview (not yet broadcast)
doxed the owner of Sheep Marketplace (see https://
pastebin.com/ raw.php?i=9spTATw6 & / doc/ darknet-market/ sheep-marketplace/ 2013-11-03-sheepmarketplace-doxxing.maff)
Bitcoin:
short essay on Zerocoin prospects
bets: update on bet with qwertyoruiop ₿<$75$502013—conceded defeat, learned a lesson about panicking, and paid up; altogether admirable
Radiance: finished transcription & added all notations
AB testing: blockquote finished, status quo performed best
Site:
deleted Flattr, trying out Gratipay for donations
October 2013
My focus for October was coping with the fallout from the bust of Silk Road—dealing with the revelations, copying the SR forums, tracking down leads, talking to various people, recording the ensuing arrests, tracking the darknet markets popping up in its wake… I still have much material to work through, but some things I managed to do included:
Drugs 2.0: “Your Crack’s in the Post” (book chapter)
rescuing the vendor public profiles and using some in my page
betting all and sundry that BlackMarket Reloaded & Sheep Marketplace will be busted or shut down within a year (no takers)
researching the digitalink” bust
I decided to post my most extensive self-experiment yet, on LSD microdosing. While there was a lot of criticism, I still regard it as worthwhile and setting a new benchmark for any future research in that area.
My anti-linkrot system benefited from comments on Hacker News telling me how to use archive.today; this may help me out quite a bit in the future.
A/
foreground/
background test : pure black/white was best font size 100–120%: default 100% was best
blockquote formatting testing zebra striping: started but not yet finished
September 2013
compiled a small meta-analysis of creatine’s effect on intelligence
combined previous progress reports all into a single page (this page) & added it to the sidebar. Should help out everyone who keep asking for an RSS feed of major changes rather than every change.
started a new A/
B test on foreground/ background colors expanded the Google Alerts over time analysis with fresh emails from the past half-year, for its Hacker News submission
started a bigger Noopept self-experiment
did some spaced repetition research using the Mnemosyne logs: found weekly & time of day effects on memory performance—with a clear circadian rhythm
August 2013
A/
B testing: the line-height test found no difference, so I did a quick one where I tested an empty test to check the A/ B testing tool I’m using ; I successfully failed to reject the null. The next test is whether underlining hyperlinks annoys people or not.Book reviews: I wrote a Haskell program to parse my GoodReads ratings & reviews into flat Pandoc Markdown; it works somewhat well, it seems to be eating blockquotes & neutering hyperlinks, I’m not sure why. Was also an opportunity to clean up some reviews: inline some of them, spellcheck, expand references & links, which was a lot of work. But it’s nice to have my reviews gathered somewhere with a readable interface. kiba thinks the work may pay for itself in affiliate revenue with Amazon, but I’m skeptical.
Scholz’s Radiance: Added a hundred pages or so. Annotating some of it is quite difficult; Scholz’s familiarity with Wagner’s operas is a challenge, since I’ve only ever read his Ring Cycle.
I’ve started two new self-experiments:
Magnesium citrate on mood/
productivity Treadmill desk usage on spaced repetition scores
Touhou music growth rate: made a little more progress on Touhou music, with an analysis # of releases vs time: seems like we may’ve reached peak Touhou in 200916ya.
Silk Road mirrors: I’ve started hosting public copies of subsets of the darknet markets; these are backups for particular incidents or timeseries
Spaced repetition statistics: I’ve been analyzing my Mnemosyne data and the giant public database for time of day effects. While my results aren’t conclusive, my analysis of 48m flashcard reviews from the public database finds that the best time to study your flashcards seem to be noon. A little surprising, you’d think that late at night, before bedtime, would be the best time.
My forgotten cleaning methods like Sand polls aren’t done because I got a much lower rate of responses to the polls than I was hoping for and only got enough responses in the final poll the other day.
July 2013
Interesting things I wrote during July:
Google Alerts: Statistical analysis of all my emails from Google Alerts to see whether/
when they started to be less useful. 2013 Lewis meditation quasi-experiment: A Quantified Selfer and a few other guys did some meditation while doing an arithmetic game; turned out to be a perfect application for multilevel modeling
Sleep and lunar phases: A recent paper claimed that there’s a phase-of-the-moon effect on circadian rhythms; since I have so much sleep data on myself, I thought I’d see if there’s any effect…
Sand: continues to progress; I closed the LW poll and set up 3 new polls on Gwern.net to test problems with the original poll.
Betting Made a list of things I’ve bet on or at least tried to bet on with people (as opposed to prediction market use). Disappointingly short.
Scholz’s Radiance: I’ve started transcribing and annotating one of my favorite tech/
lit novels. It’s mostly done. Cicadas for dinner: I finally got around to eating the cicadas I caught during the most recent Maryland emergence; so of course I had to write up this outré dining.
Right now, I’m listening through my Reitaisai 10 downloads (more Touhou music work); and working with this coach who is interested in predicting triple-jump performance by college athletes, and has collected a bunch of data about triple-jumpers.
June 2013
Hm, what did I get done this June…
It was a little boring, honestly; jury duty was a mental distraction where I couldn’t plan to do anything but I ultimately wound up going in once and not being picked up for the jury! So I spent a lot of time simply digging up fulltext papers for citations, so at least there’s now something like another 100 papers available online for melatonin/
I was thinking of trying to meta-analyze the correlation of lithium in drinking-water with suicides/
murders/ mental-illness, but after I got copies of all the citations I knew of, I’m not sure the data is homogenous to do that, which is disappointing, and the meta-analysis papers/ textbooks I’ve checked don’t seem to be very encouraging about the utility of doing it with epidemiology stuff. And reorganizing & fixing broken links & updating various pages (I figured out how to make a fun forest plot showing the active/
passive split in dual n-back studies) My long-running font A/
B test finished but with the most boring possible results of close to zero difference between the 4 fonts I researched an old family friend in his 90s who has never been willing to talk about his government work during the Cold War and found some stuff using released Census records, but that’s not really of interest to other people, and I decided to not make it public. Likewise when I added ~40 book reviews from my old notes to my Goodreads account.
I managed to trace an arrested drug dealer back to his Silk Road account, which was somewhat interesting: Reddit discussion
Is one familiar with Fukuyama & ‘the end of history’? I think he’s right but no one seems to agree with me, so I wrote a short essay defending him Like most political essays, it’s probably worse than I realize.
From my perspective, probably the most interesting thing I wrote all month was some criticism of early SF, pointing out the obsolete science behind some stuff written off as fantasy.
May 2013
I’ve made a little more progress on the Touhou project
Added 2 new studies to the DNB meta-analysis and also a new covariate (whether payment reduces gains: it doesn’t)
updated my analysis of SDr’s sleep data
oh wait, I did do a new project: applied survival analysis to modeling fiction reviews
And in my Google analysis (which I credit to last month and not May, even if it went viral in early May), I added in random survival forests, fixing that gap in evaluating prediction methods, which was a little burden of guilt off my mind.
While I was at it, I reproduced that recent paper analyzing Bitcoin exchange shutdown or theft risk. The dude’s since given me his source code. (What can I say? Survival analysis is a great hammer, and it cost me enough tears and sweat to learn how to use the R library that I plan to use it everywhere I can.)
I started a little Noopept self-experiment using the Noopept someone gave me, but unfortunately they gave me too little for the results to be very meaningful (see the power analysis); but maybe they will have a trend and I can try a bigger experiment later.
TruBrain sent me a month’s supply of their all-in-one nootropic, but I haven’t tried it yet because it would interfere with the Noopept. I also purchased magnesium l-threonate, which is a disappointment so far, and some nicotine patches, which I haven’t used yet. A small sample order from a new modafinil website selling the usual Indian Modalert is in progress but hasn’t arrived yet. (It ultimately did not arrive as the delivery required a signature.)
I have a weird little literature/
historical/ in progress; we’ll see where that goessurvey article I posted an analysis I wrote a few months ago in private of whether a particular vendor on Silk Road is a federal mole (probably not)
Actually, I guess it was overall a pretty productive month. Probably helped that jury duty has so far turned out to be a bust: I’ve been on call since 21 May but have yet to actually go into the courthouse to do anything.
2012–201312ya
But where shall wisdom be found?
And where is the place of understanding?
Man knoweth not the price thereof;
neither is it found in the land of the living
…for the price of wisdom is above rubies.
Job 28:12 (KJV translation)
Here is material I’ve worked on in the 477 days since my last update. In roughly chronological & topical order, here are the major additions to Gwern.net:
I interviewed translator Michael House about his work in Japan as a translator
finished data collection for my hafu anime statistics page and begun analysis. (I’ve achieved good coverage of characters, found an astonishingly consistent absence of Korean characters, and confirmed the blond-haired/
blue-eyed stereotype; but my original thesis doesn’t seem to work and the data is too unevenly distributed to identify time trends.) judged the 2011 & 2012 results for the Haskell Summer of Codes and the accuracy of my predictions
did a meta-analysis on whether dual n-back increases IQ, and examining possible biases and various claims about what makes the training work or not work
did another meta-analysis on whether iodine increases IQ, etc
modafinil:
checked for subjective effects of blinded modafinil
updated my modafinil price-chart twice, and expanded with brand data and a new armodafinil table
researched modafinil-related prosecutions & convictions in the USA
and any connection with schizophrenia
tried kratom
did 2 potassium experiments; neither improved my mood/
productivity, and one damaged my sleep my Silk Road page has been expanded with a BBC interview, putting SR in a historical cypherpunk context, an updated account of all arrests & law enforcement actions, and application of basic statistics to ordering
ran 2 sleep experiments on the timing of taking a vitamin D supplement: I found that taking vitamin D before bed substantially damaged my sleep, while taking vitamin D after waking up did not hurt & somewhat helped. (A later re-analysis revealed this result to be due to a flaw in the analysis; a better-done analysis revealed no particular improvement or damage to sleep.)
checked whether a walking desk (treadmill) damaged typing speed or accuracy
I have run 3 Wikipedia experiments establishing that: Talk page edits are ignored by editors; random link deletions (and their restoration) are also ignored by editors; and external link suggestions on Talk pages are also ignored by readers. (I take the former 2 as indicative of the decline in edit activity and rise of deletionist beliefs on Wikipedia.)
tried some economic/
historical analysis: “Reasons of State: Why Didn’t Denmark Sell Greenland to the USA? Defending sunk costs essay (LW discussion)
Slowing Moore’s Law: Why You Might Want To and How You Would Do It
tried estimating the bandwidth of a Death Note
compiled predictions for Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality
looked into Conscientiousness and online education; studies so far are useless from a meta-analytic standpoint
tripled length of appendix dealing with the reliability of mainstream science (methodological flaws, replication rates, etc)
finished meta-ethics essay, The Narrowing Circle
explained the philosophy saying one man’s modus ponens is another man’s modus tollens
speculation about a restoration of the British monarchy
clean up & exploratory data analysis of SDr’s lucid dreaming data
Turing-completeness in surprising places (inventory of particularly “weird machines”; relevant to computer and AI security)
Transcribed or translated:
Douglas Hofstadter’s superrationality columns (from Metamagical Themas, 198540ya)
The Iron Law Of Evaluation And Other Metallic Rules, 1987 (lessons from the large RCTs evaluating social & welfare interventions)
The Ups and Downs of the Hope Function In a Fruitless Search, et al1994
Shiny balls of Mud: William Gibson Looks at Japanese Pursuits of Perfection (200223ya)
1996 NewType interview with Hideaki Anno (translated by me, with the help of an EGFer)
1997 Animeland interview with Hideaki Anno (bought, transcribed, and translated by me with the help of other LWers)
More technical:
added edit history statistics/
visualization for Gwern.net using GitStatssite traffic updates: July–December 2011, January 2012–July 2012, July 2012–Jan 2013
There’s also been a lot of backend changes: switching to Amazon S3+Cloudflare, adding error pages, metadata like tags, A/
B testing, but no need to go into detail.
Personal:
posted summaries of my personality & attitudes & my RSS feed collection
2011
I’d like to poison your mind
With wrong ideas that appeal to you
Though I am not unkind…
Per my past practice of linking stuff I think LWers will find interesting, here is what I’ve been up to lately:
Politicians are Ethical: applying base-rate neglect
Modafinil: a dual-pronged argument for low-balling estimates of modafinil harm by pointing to both temporal and quality discounting of health in old age. (If you missed it the first time around, I still think my mini-tutorial on drug ordering with Bayes’s theorem is worth reading.)
The Narrowing Circle: argument that the usual belief of ‘moral progress’ and the ‘expanding circle’ assume many of their conclusions by pointing to the beliefs and classes of entities discarded along the way. (As many LWers share those assumptions and will be unsympathetic, the interesting parts may be the appendices on perpetuities and waqfs, inasmuch as those bear directly on cryonics.)
Both Modafinil and Spaced repetition have been expanded with scores more links to studies & PDFs. (Nicotine and Melatonin are next.)
Worldbuilding: The Lights in the Sky are Sacs is a silly bit of SF/
alternate history speculation involving floating hydrogen-sac organisms. Wikipedia and Knol has been completed, as the 7 predictions I made on the matter have been judged thanks to Google’s recent announcements; I blew one.
Stuff which is incomplete or which is just a pile of notes:
The morality of sperm donation (sketch of argument smart utilitarians should donate sperm)
notes on intermittent fasting
I stuck a link in the footer of every page to a Google spreadsheet form, borrowing the idea from Luke Muehlhauser—I’ve only gotten 1 feedback so far, IIRC, but that was before I put it in the footer and updated all the pages a few hours ago. (As of 2015, there are hundreds of responses and I consider the feedback form to have paid its way; see my later writeup detailing the benefits.)