- See Also
-
Links
- “How Honey Bees Make Fast and Accurate Decisions”, MaBou Et Al 2023
- “Simulated Automated Facial Recognition Systems As Decision-aids in Forensic Face Matching Tasks”, 2022
- “Problem 14 Dynamic Programming Solutions”, Et Al 2022
- “Modeling Bounded Rationality in Multi-Agent Simulations Using Rationally Inattentive Reinforcement Learning”, 2022
- “Learning With Differentiable Algorithms”, 2022
- “Revisiting the Temporal Pattern of Regret in Action Versus Inaction: Replication Of 1994 With Extensions Examining Responsibility”, 2022
- “The Forecast Trap”, 2022
- “Efficiently Irrational: Deciphering the Riddle of Human Choice”, 2022
- “A Systematic Review of Human Challenge Trials, Designs, and Safety”, Adams- Et Al 2022
- “The InterModel Vigorish (IMV): A Flexible and Portable Approach for Quantifying Predictive Accuracy With Binary Outcomes”, Et Al 2022
- “False Discovery in A/B Testing”, 2021
- “Noise Increases Anchoring Effects”, 2021
- “Prior Knowledge Elicitation: The Past, Present, and Future”, Et Al 2021
- “Ν-SDDP: Neural Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming”, Et Al 2021
- “A Rational Reinterpretation of Dual-process Theories”, Et Al 2021
- “Strategically Overconfident (to a Fault): How Self-promotion Motivates Advisor Confidence”, 2021
- “Enhanced Rationality in Autism Spectrum Disorder”, Et Al 2021
- “TV Advertising Effectiveness and Profitability: Generalizable Results From 288 Brands”, Et Al 2021
- “Learning to Hesitate”, Et Al 2021
- “Alignment Problems With Current Forecasting Platforms”, 2021
- “Local Optima & Greedy Choices”, 2021
- “Solving Mixed Integer Programs Using Neural Networks”, Et Al 2020
- “The Causal Foundations of Applied Probability and Statistics”, 2020
- “Adversarial Vulnerabilities of Human Decision-making”, Et Al 2020
- “Targeting for Long-term Outcomes”, Et Al 2020
- “Optimal Peanut Butter and Banana Sandwiches”, 2020
- “Robust Decision Theory and Econometrics”, 2020
- “Speed-accuracy Trade-off in Plants”, Et Al 2020
- “Modeling Imprecision in Perception, Valuation, and Choice”, 2020
- “A Comparison of Methods for Treatment Assignment With an Application to Playlist Generation”, Fernández- Et Al 2020
- “The Secret History of Facial Recognition: Sixty Years Ago, a Sharecropper’s Son Invented a Technology to Identify Faces. Then the Record of His Role All but Vanished. Who Was Woody Bledsoe, and Who Was He Working For?”, 2020
- “The Gambler’s Problem and Beyond”, Et Al 2019
- “On ‘Statistical Inference Enables Bad Science; Statistical Thinking Enables Good Science’, 2019”, 2019
- “Solving Pascal’s Mugging With Dynamic Programming”, 2019
- “A/B Testing With Fat Tails”, Et Al 2019
- “Bayesian Persuasion and Information Design”, 2019
- “Generalizable and Robust TV Advertising Effects”, Et Al 2019
- “How Should We Critique Research?”, 2019
- “Frank P. Ramsey Bibliography”, 2019
- “Is the FDA Too Conservative or Too Aggressive?: A Bayesian Decision Analysis of Clinical Trial Design”, Et Al 2019
- “Using the Results from Rigorous Multisite Evaluations to Inform Local Policy Decisions”, Et Al 2019
- “Test Driving ‘Power of Two Random Choices’ Load Balancing”, 2019
- “Reinventing the Wheel: Discovering the Optimal Rolling Shape With PyTorch”, 2019
- “Accounting Theory As a Bayesian Discipline”, 2018
- “Evolution As Backstop for Reinforcement Learning”, 2018
- “Test & Roll: Profit-Maximizing A/B Tests”, 2018
- “Computational Noise in Reward-guided Learning Drives Behavioral Variability in Volatile Environments”, Et Al 2018
- “Dog Cloning For Special Forces: Breed All You Can Breed”, 2018
- “ActiveRemediation: The Search for Lead Pipes in Flint, Michigan”, Et Al 2018
- “Delayed Impact of Fair Machine Learning”, Et Al 2018
- “Ordered Preference Elicitation Strategies for Supporting Multi-Objective Decision Making”, Et Al 2018
- “Differentiable Dynamic Programming for Structured Prediction and Attention”, 2018
- “How to Train Your Oracle: The Delphi Method and Its Turbulent Youth in Operations Research and the Policy Sciences”, 2018
- “P-Hacking and False Discovery in A/B Testing”, Et Al 2018
- “Better Decision Making in Drug Development Through Adoption of Formal Prior Elicitation”, Et Al 2017
- “Willpower Satisficing”, 2017
- “Toward a Rational and Mechanistic Account of Mental Effort”, Et Al 2017
- “Pricing the Future in the 17Th Century: Calculating Technologies in Competition”, 2017
- “Self-Blinded Mineral Water Taste Test”, 2017
- “The Kelly Coin-Flipping Game: Exact Solutions”, Et Al 2017
- “Banner Ads Considered Harmful”, 2017
- “Rational Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Observed Betting Patterns on a Biased Coin”, 2017
- “Search in Patchy Media: Exploitation-exploration Tradeoff”
- “The Risk Elicitation Puzzle”, Et Al 2017
- “Was Angelina Jolie Right? Optimizing Cancer Prevention Strategies Among BRCA Mutation Carriers”, Et Al 2017
- “The Explore-Exploit Dilemma in Media Consumption”, 2016
- “AI Risk Demos”, 2016
- “Internet WiFi Improvement”, 2016
- “The Performance Pay Nobel”, 2016
- “Embryo Selection For Intelligence”, 2016
- “Embryo Editing for Intelligence”, 2016
- “Brainless but Multi-Headed: Decision Making by the Acellular Slime Mould Physarum Polycephalum”, 2015
- “Bitter Melon for Blood Glucose”, 2015
- “Deep DPG (DDPG): Continuous Control With Deep Reinforcement Learning”, Et Al 2015
- “Reflective Oracles: A Foundation for Classical Game Theory”, Et Al 2015
- “Costs and Benefits of Iodine Supplementation for Pregnant Women in a Mildly to Moderately Iodine-deficient Population: a Modelling Analysis”, Et Al 2015
- “The Unfavorable Economics of Measuring the Returns to Advertising”, 2015
- “When Should I Check The Mail?”, 2015
- “Life Extension Cost-Benefits”, 2015
- “Objective Bayesian Two Sample Hypothesis Testing for Online Controlled Experiments”, 2015
- “Batch Normalization: Accelerating Deep Network Training by Reducing Internal Covariate Shift”, 2015
- “Selectiongain: an R Package for Optimizing Multi-stage Selection”, Et Al 2015
- “Focusing on the Long-term: It’s Good for Users and Business”, Et Al 2015
- “Ethics of Lithotomy”, 2014
- “Statistical Notes”, 2014
- “Red Black Card Game and Generalized Catalan Numbers”, 2014
- “Playing Atari With Deep Reinforcement Learning”, Et Al 2013
- “On the Near Impossibility of Measuring the Returns to Advertising”, 2013
- “Caffeine Wakeup Experiment”, 2013
- “The Wait Calculation: The Broader Consequences of the Minimum Time from Now to Interstellar Destinations and Its Statistical-Significance to the Space Economy”, 2013
- “Rerandomization to Improve Covariate Balance in Experiments”, 2012
- “Timing Technology: Lessons From The Media Lab”, 2012
- “A/B Testing Long-form Readability on Gwern.net”, 2012
- “Redshift Sleep Experiment”, 2012
- “Are Sunk Costs Fallacies?”, 2012
- “Does Retail Advertising Work? Measuring the Effects of Advertising on Sales Via a Controlled Experiment on Yahoo”, 2011
- “Here, There, and Everywhere: Correlated Online Behaviors Can Lead to Overestimates of the Effects of Advertising”, Et Al 2011
- “Improving Vineyard Sampling Efficiency via Dynamic Spatially Explicit Optimisation”, Et Al 2011
- “The False-positive to False-negative Ratio in Epidemiologic Studies”
- “The Time Resolution of the St Petersburg Paradox”, 2011
- “How to Improve R&D Productivity: the Pharmaceutical Industry’s Grand Challenge”, Et Al 2010
- “Drug Harms in the UK: a Multicriteria Decision Analysis”, Et Al 2010
- “Convergence of Expected Utility for Universal AI”, 2009
- “Adversarial Risk Analysis”, Et Al 2009
- “Retrospectives Guinnessometrics: The Economic Foundation Of”Student’s” T”, 2008
- “Convergence of Expected Utilities With Algorithmic Probability Distributions”, 2007
- “Logarithmic Regret Algorithms for Online Convex Optimization”, Et Al 2007
- “The Guidelines Manual—Chapter 8: Incorporating Health Economics in Guidelines and Assessing Resource Impact”, NICE 2007
- “On the Evolution of Investment Strategies and the Kelly Rule—A Darwinian Approach”, Lensberg & Schenk-2007
- “The Cambist and Lord Iron: A Fairy Tale of Economics”, 2007
- “Information Systems Project Continuation in Escalation Situations: A Real Options Model”, Et Al 2006
- “Decision by Sampling”, Et Al 2006
- “Interstellar Travel: The Wait Calculation and the Incentive Trap of Progress”, 2006
- “The Optimizer’s Curse: Skepticism and Postdecision Surprise in Decision Analysis”, 2006
- “Investing in the Unknown and Unknowable”, 2006
- “The Kelly Criterion in Blackjack Sports Betting, and the Stock Market”, 2006
- “Good and Real: Demystifying Paradoxes from Physics to Ethics”, 2006
- “A Systematic Review on Communicating With Patients about Evidence”, Et Al 2005
- “Bayesian Informal Logic and Fallacy”, 2004
- “Expected Value of Sample Information Calculations in Medical Decision Modeling”, Ades & Al 2004
- “Policy Mining: Learning Decision Policies from Fixed Sets of Data”, 2003
- “John W. Tukey: His Life and Professional Contributions”, 2002
- “DART: Revolutionizing Logistics Planning”, 2002
- “Comments on the Origin and Application of Markov Decision Processes”, 2002
- “Stigler’s Diet Problem Revisited”, 2001
- “William Sealy Gosset”, 2001
- “The Power of Two Random Choices: A Survey of Techniques and Results”, Et Al 2001
- “Bayesian Value-of-information Analysis: an Application to a Policy Model of Alzheimer’s Disease”, Caxton & Al 2001
- “Should We Take Measurements at an Intermediate Design Point?”, 2000
- “Averaging Expert Predictions”, 1999
- “Comparing Classifiers When the Misallocation Costs Are Uncertain”, 1999
- “Adding Risks: Samuelson’s Fallacy of Large Numbers Revisited”, 1999
- “A Conversation With I. Richard Savage (with the Assistance of Bruce Spencer)”, 1999
- “Information Theory and an Extension of the Maximum Likelihood Principle”, 1998
- “‘Improving Ratings’: Audit in the British University System”, 1997
- “The ‘Awful Idea of Accountability’: Inscribing People into the Measurement of Objects”, 1996
- “Seeing The Forest From The Trees: When Predicting The Behavior Or Status Of Groups, Correlate Means”, 1996b
- “_Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory_”
- “Processing Linguistic Probabilities: General Principles and Empirical Evidence”, 1995
- “Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping and Wagering Systems: A Report”, Et Al 1994
- “The Temporal Pattern to the Experience of Regret”, 1994
- “Bayesian Updating in Hierarchic Markov Processes Applied to the Animal Replacement Problem”, 1993
- “Universal Portfolios”, 1991
- “Learning from Coarse Information: Biased Contests and Career Profiles”, 1991
- “Weight or the Value of Knowledge”, 1990
- “‘Student’: A Statistical Biography of William Sealy Gosset”, Et Al 1990
- “F. P. Ramsey: Philosophical Papers”, 1990
- “The Total Evidence Theorem for Probability Kinematics”, 1989
- “Nonlinear Preference and Utility Theory”, 1988
- “Search Success and Expectations With a Computer Interface”
- “Measuring the Vague Meanings of Probability Terms”, Et Al 1986
- “An Examination of Two Alternative Techniques to Estimate the Standard Deviation of Job Performance in Dollars”, 1985
- “Game Theoretic Analysis of a Bankruptcy Problem from the Talmud”, 1985
- “Influence Diagrams”, 1984
- “The Citation Bias: Fad and Fashion in the Judgment and Decision Literature”, Christensen-1984
- “The Operations Evaluation Group: A History Of Naval Operations Analysis”
- “Re-evaluation of Decision Alternatives Dependent upon the Reversibility of a Decision and the Passage of Time”
- “Readings on the Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis: Volume 2: Professional Collection”, 1983
- “Readings on the Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis: Volume 1: General Collection”, 1983
- “Multi-Bayesian Statistical Decision Theory”, 1981
- “Impact of Valid Selection Procedures on Work-force Productivity”, Et Al 1979
- “Science and Statistics”, 1976
- “When Values Conflict: Essays on Environmental Analysis, Discourse, and Decision”, Et Al 1976
- “Boundaries of Analysis: An Inquiry into the Tocks Island Dam Controversy”, Et Al 1976
- “Portfolio Choice and the Kelly Criterion”, 1975
- “Cross-Modality Matching of Money Against Other Continua”, 1974
- “The General Impossibility of Normative Accounting Standards”, 1973
- “The Theory of Social Choice”, 1973
- “What Makes for a Beautiful Problem in Science?”, 1970
- “The Practicality Gap”, 1968
- “Strategies of Search”
- “General Proof That Diversification Pays”, 1967
- “Optimal Dairy Cow Replacement Policies”, 1966
- “Measuring Utility by a Single-response Sequential Method”, Et Al 1964
- “A Model for Selecting One of Two Medical Treatments”, 1963
- “Studies of War, Nuclear and Conventional”, 1962
- “Applied Statistical Decision Theory”, 1961
- “Gradient Theory of Optimal Flight Paths”, 1960
- “Rational Decision-Making In Portfolio Management”, 1959b
- “Criteria for Choice Among Risky Ventures”, 1959
- “Testing Statistical Hypotheses (First Edition)”, 1959
- “Probability and Statistics for Business Decisions: An Introduction to Managerial Economics Under Uncertainty”, 1959
- “An Optimum Character Recognition System Using Decision Functions”, 1957
- “Unsolved Problems of Experimental Statistics”, 1954
- “Non-Cooperative Games”, 1951
- “The Economic Life of Industrial Equipment”, 1940
- “The Relationship Of Validity Coefficients To The Practical Effectiveness Of Tests In Selection: Discussion And Tables”
- “ “Student” As Statistician”, 1939
- “Presidential Address to the First Indian Statistical Congress”, 1938
- “The Lanarkshire Milk Experiment”, 1933
- “Pasteurised and Raw Milk”, 1931
- “The Lanarkshire Milk Experiment [Student]”, 1931
- “Milk Consumption and the Growth of School Children. Report on an Investigation in Lanarkshire Schools”
- “On Testing Varieties of Cereals”, 1923
- “The Application Of The”Law Of Error” To The Work Of The Brewery”, 1904
- “Why We Can’t Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They’re Unbiased)”
- Wikipedia
- Miscellaneous
- Link Bibliography
See Also
Links
“How Honey Bees Make Fast and Accurate Decisions”, MaBou Et Al 2023
“How honey bees make fast and accurate decisions”, 2023-01-03 (; similar)
“Simulated Automated Facial Recognition Systems As Decision-aids in Forensic Face Matching Tasks”, 2022
“Simulated automated facial recognition systems as decision-aids in forensic face matching tasks”, 2022-12 (; similar; bibliography)
“Problem 14 Dynamic Programming Solutions”, Et Al 2022
“Problem 14 Dynamic Programming Solutions”, 2022-10-02 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Modeling Bounded Rationality in Multi-Agent Simulations Using Rationally Inattentive Reinforcement Learning”, 2022
“Modeling Bounded Rationality in Multi-Agent Simulations Using Rationally Inattentive Reinforcement Learning”, 2022-09-19 (; similar; bibliography)
“Learning With Differentiable Algorithms”, 2022
“Learning with Differentiable Algorithms”, 2022-09-01 (; similar)
“Revisiting the Temporal Pattern of Regret in Action Versus Inaction: Replication Of 1994 With Extensions Examining Responsibility”, 2022
“Revisiting the Temporal Pattern of Regret in Action Versus Inaction: Replication of Gilovich & Medvec 1994 With Extensions Examining Responsibility”, 2022-08-02 (; similar)
“The Forecast Trap”, 2022
“The forecast trap”, 2022-05-30 (; similar)
“Efficiently Irrational: Deciphering the Riddle of Human Choice”, 2022
“Efficiently irrational: deciphering the riddle of human choice”, 2022-05-25 (; similar; bibliography)
“A Systematic Review of Human Challenge Trials, Designs, and Safety”, Adams- Et Al 2022
“A Systematic Review of Human Challenge Trials, Designs, and Safety”, 2022-03-21 (; similar)
“The InterModel Vigorish (IMV): A Flexible and Portable Approach for Quantifying Predictive Accuracy With Binary Outcomes”, Et Al 2022
“The InterModel Vigorish (IMV): A flexible and portable approach for quantifying predictive accuracy with binary outcomes”, 2022-01-12 (; similar)
“False Discovery in A/B Testing”, 2021
“False Discovery in A/B Testing”, 2021-12-30 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Noise Increases Anchoring Effects”, 2021
“Noise Increases Anchoring Effects”, 2021-12-08 (; similar)
“Prior Knowledge Elicitation: The Past, Present, and Future”, Et Al 2021
“Prior knowledge elicitation: The past, present, and future”, 2021-12-01 (; similar)
“Ν-SDDP: Neural Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming”, Et Al 2021
“ν-SDDP: Neural Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming”, 2021-12-01 (; similar)
“A Rational Reinterpretation of Dual-process Theories”, Et Al 2021
“A rational reinterpretation of dual-process theories”, 2021-12-01 (; similar)
“Strategically Overconfident (to a Fault): How Self-promotion Motivates Advisor Confidence”, 2021
“Strategically overconfident (to a fault): How self-promotion motivates advisor confidence”, 2021-11-01 (; similar)
“Enhanced Rationality in Autism Spectrum Disorder”, Et Al 2021
“Enhanced rationality in autism spectrum disorder”, 2021-08-01 (; similar)
“TV Advertising Effectiveness and Profitability: Generalizable Results From 288 Brands”, Et Al 2021
“TV Advertising Effectiveness and Profitability: Generalizable Results From 288 Brands”, 2021-07-26 (; backlinks; similar)
“Learning to Hesitate”, Et Al 2021
“Learning to hesitate”, 2021-06-22 (similar)
“Alignment Problems With Current Forecasting Platforms”, 2021
“Alignment Problems With Current Forecasting Platforms”, 2021-06-21 (; backlinks; similar)
“Local Optima & Greedy Choices”, 2021
“Local Optima & Greedy Choices”, 2021-03-24 (; backlinks; bibliography)
“Solving Mixed Integer Programs Using Neural Networks”, Et Al 2020
“Solving Mixed Integer Programs Using Neural Networks”, 2020-12-23 (; similar)
“The Causal Foundations of Applied Probability and Statistics”, 2020
“The causal foundations of applied probability and statistics”, 2020-11-05 (; backlinks; similar)
“Adversarial Vulnerabilities of Human Decision-making”, Et Al 2020
“Adversarial vulnerabilities of human decision-making”, 2020-11-04 (; similar)
“Targeting for Long-term Outcomes”, Et Al 2020
“Targeting for long-term outcomes”, 2020-10-29 (; similar)
“Optimal Peanut Butter and Banana Sandwiches”, 2020
“Optimal Peanut Butter and Banana Sandwiches”, 2020-08-25 (; similar; bibliography)
“Robust Decision Theory and Econometrics”, 2020
“Robust Decision Theory and Econometrics”, 2020-08-01 (similar)
“Speed-accuracy Trade-off in Plants”, Et Al 2020
“Speed-accuracy trade-off in plants”, 2020-06-15 (; similar; bibliography)
“Modeling Imprecision in Perception, Valuation, and Choice”, 2020
“Modeling Imprecision in Perception, Valuation, and Choice”, 2020-05-01 (; similar)
“A Comparison of Methods for Treatment Assignment With an Application to Playlist Generation”, Fernández- Et Al 2020
“A Comparison of Methods for Treatment Assignment with an Application to Playlist Generation”, 2020-04-24 (; similar)
“The Secret History of Facial Recognition: Sixty Years Ago, a Sharecropper’s Son Invented a Technology to Identify Faces. Then the Record of His Role All but Vanished. Who Was Woody Bledsoe, and Who Was He Working For?”, 2020
“The Secret History of Facial Recognition: Sixty years ago, a sharecropper’s son invented a technology to identify faces. Then the record of his role all but vanished. Who was Woody Bledsoe, and who was he working for?”, 2020-01-21 (; backlinks; similar)
“The Gambler’s Problem and Beyond”, Et Al 2019
“The Gambler’s Problem and Beyond”, 2019-12-31 (; backlinks; similar)
“On ‘Statistical Inference Enables Bad Science; Statistical Thinking Enables Good Science’, 2019”, 2019
“On 'Statistical Inference Enables Bad Science; Statistical Thinking Enables Good Science', Tong 2019”, 2019-09-17 (; backlinks; similar)
“Solving Pascal’s Mugging With Dynamic Programming”, 2019
“Solving Pascal’s Mugging with Dynamic Programming”, 2019-09-12 (; backlinks; bibliography)
“A/B Testing With Fat Tails”, Et Al 2019
“A/B Testing with Fat Tails”, 2019-08-09
“Bayesian Persuasion and Information Design”, 2019
“Bayesian Persuasion and Information Design”, 2019-08-01
“Generalizable and Robust TV Advertising Effects”, Et Al 2019
“Generalizable and Robust TV Advertising Effects”, 2019-06-11 (; backlinks; similar)
“How Should We Critique Research?”, 2019
“How Should We Critique Research?”, 2019-05-19 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Frank P. Ramsey Bibliography”, 2019
“Frank P. Ramsey bibliography”, 2019-01-24 ()
“Is the FDA Too Conservative or Too Aggressive?: A Bayesian Decision Analysis of Clinical Trial Design”, Et Al 2019
“Is the FDA too conservative or too aggressive?: A Bayesian decision analysis of clinical trial design”, 2019-01-04 (; similar)
“Using the Results from Rigorous Multisite Evaluations to Inform Local Policy Decisions”, Et Al 2019
“Test Driving ‘Power of Two Random Choices’ Load Balancing”, 2019
“Reinventing the Wheel: Discovering the Optimal Rolling Shape With PyTorch”, 2019
“Accounting Theory As a Bayesian Discipline”, 2018
“Accounting Theory as a Bayesian Discipline”, 2018-12-28 (; similar)
“Evolution As Backstop for Reinforcement Learning”, 2018
“Evolution as Backstop for Reinforcement Learning”, 2018-12-06 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Test & Roll: Profit-Maximizing A/B Tests”, 2018
“Test & Roll: Profit-Maximizing A/B Tests”, 2018-11-01 (; backlinks; similar)
“Computational Noise in Reward-guided Learning Drives Behavioral Variability in Volatile Environments”, Et Al 2018
“Computational noise in reward-guided learning drives behavioral variability in volatile environments”, 2018-10-11 (; similar)
“Dog Cloning For Special Forces: Breed All You Can Breed”, 2018
“Dog Cloning For Special Forces: Breed All You Can Breed”, 2018-09-18 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“ActiveRemediation: The Search for Lead Pipes in Flint, Michigan”, Et Al 2018
“ActiveRemediation: The Search for Lead Pipes in Flint, Michigan”, 2018-06-10 (similar)
“Delayed Impact of Fair Machine Learning”, Et Al 2018
“Delayed Impact of Fair Machine Learning”, 2018-03-12 (; backlinks; similar)
“Ordered Preference Elicitation Strategies for Supporting Multi-Objective Decision Making”, Et Al 2018
“Ordered Preference Elicitation Strategies for Supporting Multi-Objective Decision Making”, 2018-02-21 (; similar)
“Differentiable Dynamic Programming for Structured Prediction and Attention”, 2018
“Differentiable Dynamic Programming for Structured Prediction and Attention”, 2018-02-11 (; backlinks; similar)
“How to Train Your Oracle: The Delphi Method and Its Turbulent Youth in Operations Research and the Policy Sciences”, 2018
“How to train your oracle: The Delphi method and its turbulent youth in operations research and the policy sciences”, 2018 (similar)
“P-Hacking and False Discovery in A/B Testing”, Et Al 2018
“Better Decision Making in Drug Development Through Adoption of Formal Prior Elicitation”, Et Al 2017
“Better Decision Making in Drug Development Through Adoption of Formal Prior Elicitation”, 2017-08-31 (; similar)
“Willpower Satisficing”, 2017
“Willpower Satisficing”, 2017-07-27 (; similar)
“Toward a Rational and Mechanistic Account of Mental Effort”, Et Al 2017
“Toward a Rational and Mechanistic Account of Mental Effort”, 2017-07-01 (; backlinks; similar)
“Pricing the Future in the 17Th Century: Calculating Technologies in Competition”, 2017
“Pricing the Future in the 17th Century: Calculating Technologies in Competition”, 2017-04 (; backlinks; similar)
“Self-Blinded Mineral Water Taste Test”, 2017
“Self-Blinded Mineral Water Taste Test”, 2017-02-15 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“The Kelly Coin-Flipping Game: Exact Solutions”, Et Al 2017
“The Kelly Coin-Flipping Game: Exact Solutions”, 2017-01-19 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Banner Ads Considered Harmful”, 2017
“Banner Ads Considered Harmful”, 2017-01-08 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Rational Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Observed Betting Patterns on a Biased Coin”, 2017
“Rational Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Observed Betting Patterns on a Biased Coin”, 2017-01-04 (; backlinks; similar)
“Search in Patchy Media: Exploitation-exploration Tradeoff”
“The Risk Elicitation Puzzle”, Et Al 2017
“Was Angelina Jolie Right? Optimizing Cancer Prevention Strategies Among BRCA Mutation Carriers”, Et Al 2017
“The Explore-Exploit Dilemma in Media Consumption”, 2016
“The Explore-Exploit Dilemma in Media Consumption”, 2016-12-24 (; similar; bibliography)
“AI Risk Demos”, 2016
“AI Risk Demos”, 2016-12-23 (; bibliography)
“Internet WiFi Improvement”, 2016
“Internet WiFi improvement”, 2016-10-20 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“The Performance Pay Nobel”, 2016
“The Performance Pay Nobel”, 2016-10-10 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Embryo Selection For Intelligence”, 2016
“Embryo Selection For Intelligence”, 2016-01-22 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Embryo Editing for Intelligence”, 2016
“Embryo editing for intelligence”, 2016-01-22 (; backlinks; bibliography)
“Brainless but Multi-Headed: Decision Making by the Acellular Slime Mould Physarum Polycephalum”, 2015
“Brainless but Multi-Headed: Decision Making by the Acellular Slime Mould Physarum polycephalum”, 2015-11-20 (; backlinks; similar)
“Bitter Melon for Blood Glucose”, 2015
“Bitter Melon for blood glucose”, 2015-09-14 (; similar; bibliography)
“Deep DPG (DDPG): Continuous Control With Deep Reinforcement Learning”, Et Al 2015
“Deep DPG (DDPG): Continuous control with deep reinforcement learning”, 2015-09-09 (; similar)
“Reflective Oracles: A Foundation for Classical Game Theory”, Et Al 2015
“Reflective Oracles: A Foundation for Classical Game Theory”, 2015-08-17 (; backlinks; similar)
“Costs and Benefits of Iodine Supplementation for Pregnant Women in a Mildly to Moderately Iodine-deficient Population: a Modelling Analysis”, Et Al 2015
“Costs and benefits of iodine supplementation for pregnant women in a mildly to moderately iodine-deficient population: a modelling analysis”, 2015-08-10 (; backlinks; similar)
“The Unfavorable Economics of Measuring the Returns to Advertising”, 2015
“The Unfavorable Economics of Measuring the Returns to Advertising”, 2015-07-06 (; backlinks; similar)
“When Should I Check The Mail?”, 2015
“When Should I Check The Mail?”, 2015-06-21 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Life Extension Cost-Benefits”, 2015
“Life Extension Cost-Benefits”, 2015-06-01 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Objective Bayesian Two Sample Hypothesis Testing for Online Controlled Experiments”, 2015
“Objective Bayesian Two Sample Hypothesis Testing for Online Controlled Experiments”, 2015-05-01 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Batch Normalization: Accelerating Deep Network Training by Reducing Internal Covariate Shift”, 2015
“Batch Normalization: Accelerating Deep Network Training by Reducing Internal Covariate Shift”, 2015-02-11 (backlinks; similar)
“Selectiongain: an R Package for Optimizing Multi-stage Selection”, Et Al 2015
“Focusing on the Long-term: It’s Good for Users and Business”, Et Al 2015
“Focusing on the Long-term: It’s Good for Users and Business”, 2015 (; backlinks; similar)
“Ethics of Lithotomy”, 2014
“Ethics of Lithotomy”, 2014-09-09
“Statistical Notes”, 2014
“Statistical Notes”, 2014-07-17 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Red Black Card Game and Generalized Catalan Numbers”, 2014
“Red Black Card Game and Generalized Catalan Numbers”, 2014-07-05 (; backlinks; similar)
“Playing Atari With Deep Reinforcement Learning”, Et Al 2013
“Playing Atari with Deep Reinforcement Learning”, 2013-12-19 (similar)
“On the Near Impossibility of Measuring the Returns to Advertising”, 2013
“On the Near Impossibility of Measuring the Returns to Advertising”, 2013-04-23 (; backlinks; similar)
“Caffeine Wakeup Experiment”, 2013
“Caffeine wakeup experiment”, 2013-04-07 (; similar; bibliography)
“The Wait Calculation: The Broader Consequences of the Minimum Time from Now to Interstellar Destinations and Its Statistical-Significance to the Space Economy”, 2013
“The Wait Calculation: The Broader Consequences of the Minimum Time from Now to Interstellar Destinations and its Statistical-Significance to the Space Economy”, 2013-01 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Rerandomization to Improve Covariate Balance in Experiments”, 2012
“Rerandomization to improve covariate balance in experiments”, 2012-07-18 (; backlinks; similar)
“Timing Technology: Lessons From The Media Lab”, 2012
“Timing Technology: Lessons From The Media Lab”, 2012-07-12 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“A/B Testing Long-form Readability on Gwern.net”, 2012
“A/B testing long-form readability on Gwern.net”, 2012-06-16 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Redshift Sleep Experiment”, 2012
“Redshift sleep experiment”, 2012-05-09 (; similar; bibliography)
“Are Sunk Costs Fallacies?”, 2012
“Are Sunk Costs Fallacies?”, 2012-01-24 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Does Retail Advertising Work? Measuring the Effects of Advertising on Sales Via a Controlled Experiment on Yahoo”, 2011
“Does Retail Advertising Work? Measuring the Effects of Advertising on Sales Via a Controlled Experiment on Yahoo”, 2011-06-08 (; backlinks; similar)
“Here, There, and Everywhere: Correlated Online Behaviors Can Lead to Overestimates of the Effects of Advertising”, Et Al 2011
“Here, there, and everywhere: correlated online behaviors can lead to overestimates of the effects of advertising”, 2011-03 (; backlinks; similar)
“Improving Vineyard Sampling Efficiency via Dynamic Spatially Explicit Optimisation”, Et Al 2011
“The False-positive to False-negative Ratio in Epidemiologic Studies”
“The Time Resolution of the St Petersburg Paradox”, 2011
“The time resolution of the St Petersburg paradox”, 2011 (; backlinks)
“How to Improve R&D Productivity: the Pharmaceutical Industry’s Grand Challenge”, Et Al 2010
“How to improve R&D productivity: the pharmaceutical industry's grand challenge”, 2010-02-19 (backlinks; similar)
“Drug Harms in the UK: a Multicriteria Decision Analysis”, Et Al 2010
“Convergence of Expected Utility for Universal AI”, 2009
“Convergence of Expected Utility for Universal AI”, 2009-07-31 (backlinks)
“Adversarial Risk Analysis”, Et Al 2009
“Adversarial Risk Analysis”, 2009 (similar)
“Retrospectives Guinnessometrics: The Economic Foundation Of”Student’s” T”, 2008
“Retrospectives Guinnessometrics: The Economic Foundation of “Student’s” t”, 2008-09 (; backlinks; similar)
“Convergence of Expected Utilities With Algorithmic Probability Distributions”, 2007
“Convergence of Expected Utilities with Algorithmic Probability Distributions”, 2007-12-28 (backlinks; similar)
“Logarithmic Regret Algorithms for Online Convex Optimization”, Et Al 2007
“Logarithmic regret algorithms for online convex optimization”, 2007-08-08 (backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“The Guidelines Manual—Chapter 8: Incorporating Health Economics in Guidelines and Assessing Resource Impact”, NICE 2007
“On the Evolution of Investment Strategies and the Kelly Rule—A Darwinian Approach”, Lensberg & Schenk-2007
“The Cambist and Lord Iron: A Fairy Tale of Economics”, 2007
“The Cambist and Lord Iron: A Fairy Tale of Economics”, 2007 (; similar; bibliography)
“Information Systems Project Continuation in Escalation Situations: A Real Options Model”, Et Al 2006
“Information Systems Project Continuation in Escalation Situations: A Real Options Model”, 2006-10-09 (; backlinks; similar)
“Decision by Sampling”, Et Al 2006
“Decision by sampling”, 2006-08-01 (backlinks; similar)
“Interstellar Travel: The Wait Calculation and the Incentive Trap of Progress”, 2006
“Interstellar Travel: The Wait Calculation and the Incentive Trap of Progress”, 2006-07 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“The Optimizer’s Curse: Skepticism and Postdecision Surprise in Decision Analysis”, 2006
“The Optimizer’s Curse: Skepticism and Postdecision Surprise in Decision Analysis”, 2006-03-01 (; backlinks; similar)
“Investing in the Unknown and Unknowable”, 2006
“Investing in the Unknown and Unknowable”, 2006 (; similar)
“The Kelly Criterion in Blackjack Sports Betting, and the Stock Market”, 2006
“The Kelly Criterion in Blackjack Sports Betting, and the Stock Market”, 2006 (similar)
“Good and Real: Demystifying Paradoxes from Physics to Ethics”, 2006
“Good and Real: Demystifying Paradoxes from Physics to Ethics”, 2006 (backlinks; similar)
“A Systematic Review on Communicating With Patients about Evidence”, Et Al 2005
“A systematic review on communicating with patients about evidence”, 2005-07-22 (; similar)
“Bayesian Informal Logic and Fallacy”, 2004
“Bayesian Informal Logic and Fallacy”, 2004 (; backlinks)
“Expected Value of Sample Information Calculations in Medical Decision Modeling”, Ades & Al 2004
“Policy Mining: Learning Decision Policies from Fixed Sets of Data”, 2003
“Policy Mining: Learning Decision Policies from Fixed Sets of Data”, 2003 (; similar)
“John W. Tukey: His Life and Professional Contributions”, 2002
“DART: Revolutionizing Logistics Planning”, 2002
“Comments on the Origin and Application of Markov Decision Processes”, 2002
“Comments on the Origin and Application of Markov Decision Processes”, 2002-01 (similar)
“Stigler’s Diet Problem Revisited”, 2001
“Stigler’s Diet Problem Revisited”, 2001 (; backlinks)
“William Sealy Gosset”, 2001
“William Sealy Gosset”, 2001
“The Power of Two Random Choices: A Survey of Techniques and Results”, Et Al 2001
“The Power of Two Random Choices: A Survey of Techniques and Results”, 2001 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Bayesian Value-of-information Analysis: an Application to a Policy Model of Alzheimer’s Disease”, Caxton & Al 2001
“Should We Take Measurements at an Intermediate Design Point?”, 2000
“Should we take measurements at an intermediate design point?”, 2000-03 (; similar)
“Averaging Expert Predictions”, 1999
“Averaging Expert Predictions”, 1999-11-19 (backlinks)
“Comparing Classifiers When the Misallocation Costs Are Uncertain”, 1999
“Comparing classifiers when the misallocation costs are uncertain”, 1999-07-01 (similar)
“Adding Risks: Samuelson’s Fallacy of Large Numbers Revisited”, 1999
“A Conversation With I. Richard Savage (with the Assistance of Bruce Spencer)”, 1999
“Information Theory and an Extension of the Maximum Likelihood Principle”, 1998
“Information Theory and an Extension of the Maximum Likelihood Principle”, 1998 (similar)
“‘Improving Ratings’: Audit in the British University System”, 1997
“‘Improving ratings’: audit in the British University system”, 1997-07-01 (similar)
“The ‘Awful Idea of Accountability’: Inscribing People into the Measurement of Objects”, 1996
“Seeing The Forest From The Trees: When Predicting The Behavior Or Status Of Groups, Correlate Means”, 1996b
“Seeing The Forest From The Trees: When Predicting The Behavior Or Status Of Groups, Correlate Means”, 1996 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“_Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory_”
“Processing Linguistic Probabilities: General Principles and Empirical Evidence”, 1995
“Processing Linguistic Probabilities: General Principles and Empirical Evidence”, 1995 (backlinks; similar)
“Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping and Wagering Systems: A Report”, Et Al 1994
“The Temporal Pattern to the Experience of Regret”, 1994
“The temporal pattern to the experience of regret”, 1994-01 (; backlinks; similar)
“Bayesian Updating in Hierarchic Markov Processes Applied to the Animal Replacement Problem”, 1993
“Bayesian updating in hierarchic Markov processes applied to the animal replacement problem”, 1993-06-01 (similar)
“Universal Portfolios”, 1991
“Universal Portfolios”, 1991 (; backlinks)
“Learning from Coarse Information: Biased Contests and Career Profiles”, 1991
“Learning from Coarse Information: Biased Contests and Career Profiles”, 1991 (similar)
“Weight or the Value of Knowledge”, 1990
“Weight or the Value of Knowledge”, 1990 (; backlinks)
“‘Student’: A Statistical Biography of William Sealy Gosset”, Et Al 1990
“F. P. Ramsey: Philosophical Papers”, 1990
“F. P. Ramsey: Philosophical Papers”, 1990 (; backlinks)
“The Total Evidence Theorem for Probability Kinematics”, 1989
“The Total Evidence Theorem for Probability Kinematics”, 1989-06 (similar)
“Nonlinear Preference and Utility Theory”, 1988
“Search Success and Expectations With a Computer Interface”
“Measuring the Vague Meanings of Probability Terms”, Et Al 1986
“Measuring the vague meanings of probability terms”, 1986-12-01 (backlinks; similar)
“An Examination of Two Alternative Techniques to Estimate the Standard Deviation of Job Performance in Dollars”, 1985
“An examination of two alternative techniques to estimate the standard deviation of job performance in dollars”, 1985-11-01 (; similar)
“Game Theoretic Analysis of a Bankruptcy Problem from the Talmud”, 1985
“Influence Diagrams”, 1984
“Influence Diagrams”, 1984
“The Citation Bias: Fad and Fashion in the Judgment and Decision Literature”, Christensen-1984
“The Citation Bias: Fad and Fashion in the Judgment and Decision Literature”, 1984 (; similar)
“Re-evaluation of Decision Alternatives Dependent upon the Reversibility of a Decision and the Passage of Time”
“Readings on the Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis: Volume 2: Professional Collection”, 1983
“Readings on the Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis: Volume 1: General Collection”, 1983
“Multi-Bayesian Statistical Decision Theory”, 1981
“Impact of Valid Selection Procedures on Work-force Productivity”, Et Al 1979
“Impact of valid selection procedures on work-force productivity”, 1979 (; backlinks; similar)
“Science and Statistics”, 1976
“Science and Statistics”, 1976-12-01 (similar)
“When Values Conflict: Essays on Environmental Analysis, Discourse, and Decision”, Et Al 1976
“When Values Conflict: Essays on Environmental Analysis, Discourse, and Decision”, 1976 (similar)
“Boundaries of Analysis: An Inquiry into the Tocks Island Dam Controversy”, Et Al 1976
“Boundaries of Analysis: An Inquiry into the Tocks Island Dam Controversy”, 1976 (similar)
“Portfolio Choice and the Kelly Criterion”, 1975
“Cross-Modality Matching of Money Against Other Continua”, 1974
“Cross-Modality Matching of Money Against Other Continua”, 1974 (similar)
“The General Impossibility of Normative Accounting Standards”, 1973
“The Theory of Social Choice”, 1973
“What Makes for a Beautiful Problem in Science?”, 1970
“The Practicality Gap”, 1968
“The Practicality Gap”, 1968-03-01 (backlinks)
“Strategies of Search”
“Strategies of search”1968 (; backlinks)
“General Proof That Diversification Pays”, 1967
“Optimal Dairy Cow Replacement Policies”, 1966
“Measuring Utility by a Single-response Sequential Method”, Et Al 1964
“Measuring utility by a single-response sequential method”, 1964 (; backlinks; similar)
“A Model for Selecting One of Two Medical Treatments”, 1963
“A Model for Selecting One of Two Medical Treatments”, 1963 (similar)
“Studies of War, Nuclear and Conventional”, 1962
“Applied Statistical Decision Theory”, 1961
“Gradient Theory of Optimal Flight Paths”, 1960
“Gradient Theory of Optimal Flight Paths”, 1960-10-01 (; backlinks; similar)
“Rational Decision-Making In Portfolio Management”, 1959b
“Rational Decision-Making In Portfolio Management”, 1959-09-01
“Criteria for Choice Among Risky Ventures”, 1959
“Criteria for Choice Among Risky Ventures”, 1959-04-01 (backlinks)
“Testing Statistical Hypotheses (First Edition)”, 1959
“Probability and Statistics for Business Decisions: An Introduction to Managerial Economics Under Uncertainty”, 1959
“Probability and Statistics for Business Decisions: An Introduction to Managerial Economics Under Uncertainty”, 1959 (; backlinks; similar)
“An Optimum Character Recognition System Using Decision Functions”, 1957
“An Optimum Character Recognition System Using Decision Functions”, 1957-12-01 (; backlinks; similar)
“Unsolved Problems of Experimental Statistics”, 1954
“Non-Cooperative Games”, 1951
“Non-Cooperative Games”, 1951-09-01 (; backlinks; similar)
“The Economic Life of Industrial Equipment”, 1940
“The Relationship Of Validity Coefficients To The Practical Effectiveness Of Tests In Selection: Discussion And Tables”
“ “Student” As Statistician”, 1939
“"Student" as Statistician”, 1939-01-00 (; backlinks; similar)
“Presidential Address to the First Indian Statistical Congress”, 1938
“The Lanarkshire Milk Experiment”, 1933
“Pasteurised and Raw Milk”, 1931
“Pasteurised and Raw Milk”, 1931 (backlinks)
“The Lanarkshire Milk Experiment [Student]”, 1931
“Milk Consumption and the Growth of School Children. Report on an Investigation in Lanarkshire Schools”
“On Testing Varieties of Cereals”, 1923
“On Testing Varieties of Cereals”, 1923 (; backlinks)
“The Application Of The”Law Of Error” To The Work Of The Brewery”, 1904
“Why We Can’t Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They’re Unbiased)”
Wikipedia
Miscellaneous
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2020-sharot.pdf2020 -
2018-cohen.pdf2018 -
2018-aguilar.pdf2018 -
2017-pal.pdf2017 -
2016-08-20-candyjapan-decisiontree-n9.csv2016-08-20 (backlinks) -
2013-06-24-schou-devilgametheory.html2013-06-24 -
2009-baumann.pdf2009 -
1996-puskin.pdf1996 -
1995-tengs.pdf1995 (; backlinks) -
1995-bohn.pdf1995 -
1995-bohn-2.pdf1995 -
1991-tsevat.pdf1991 -
1990-dantzig.pdf1990 (; backlinks) -
1987-jonker.pdf1987 -
1986-bolton.pdf1986 -
1983-hauer.pdf1983 -
1982-sobel.pdf1982 -
1981-frey.pdf1981 (; backlinks) -
1966-weiss.pdf1966 -
1965-black.pdf1965 (; backlinks) -
1962-dreyfus.pdf1962 -
1960-jewell.pdf1960 -
1957-savage.pdf1957 (; backlinks) -
1957-box.pdf1957 -
1954-hodges.pdf1954 (; backlinks) -
1952-yates.pdf1952 -
1945-stigler.pdf1945 (; backlinks) -
https://maximumeffort.substack.com/p/the-tyranny-of-the-wagon-equation -
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RQpNHSiWaXTvDxt6R/coherent-decisions-imply-consistent-utilities -
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rEZqP7K4MG6waC2zf/optimizing-crop-planting-with-mixed-integer-linear
Link Bibliography
-
2022-carragher.pdf: “Simulated Automated Facial Recognition Systems As Decision-aids in Forensic Face Matching Tasks”, Daniel J. Carragher, Peter J. B. Hancock: -
problem-14: “Problem 14 Dynamic Programming Solutions”, Gwern Branwen, FeepingCreature, nshepperd, Khoth: -
https://openreview.net/forum?id=DY1pMrmDkm: “Modeling Bounded Rationality in Multi-Agent Simulations Using Rationally Inattentive Reinforcement Learning”, Anonymous: -
2022-glimcher.pdf: “Efficiently Irrational: Deciphering the Riddle of Human Choice”, Paul W. Glimcher: -
2021-berman.pdf: “False Discovery in A / B Testing”, Ron Berman, Christophe Van den Bulte: -
local-optima: “Local Optima & Greedy Choices”, Gwern Branwen: -
https://www.ethanrosenthal.com/2020/08/25/optimal-peanut-butter-and-banana-sandwiches/: “Optimal Peanut Butter and Banana Sandwiches”, Ethan Rosenthal: -
https://link.springer.com/article/10.3758/s13423-020-01753-4: “Speed-accuracy Trade-off in Plants”, : -
mugging-dp: “Solving Pascal’s Mugging With Dynamic Programming”, Gwern Branwen: -
research-criticism: “How Should We Critique Research?”, Gwern Branwen: -
backstop: “Evolution As Backstop for Reinforcement Learning”, Gwern Branwen: -
clone: “Dog Cloning For Special Forces: Breed All You Can Breed”, Gwern Branwen: -
water: “Self-Blinded Mineral Water Taste Test”, Gwern Branwen: -
coin-flip: “The Kelly Coin-Flipping Game: Exact Solutions”, Gwern Branwen, Arthur Breitman, nshepperd, FeepingCreature, Gurkenglas: -
ad: “Banner Ads Considered Harmful”, Gwern Branwen: -
media-rl: “The Explore-Exploit Dilemma in Media Consumption”, Gwern Branwen: -
mcts-ai: “AI Risk Demos”, Gwern Branwen: -
wifi: “Internet WiFi Improvement”, Gwern Branwen: -
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2016/10/performance-pay-nobel.html: “The Performance Pay Nobel”, Alex Tabarrok: -
embryo-selection: “Embryo Selection For Intelligence”, Gwern Branwen: -
embryo-editing: “Embryo Editing for Intelligence”, Gwern Branwen: -
melon: “Bitter Melon for Blood Glucose”, Gwern Branwen: -
mail-delivery: “When Should I Check The Mail?”, Gwern Branwen: -
longevity: “Life Extension Cost-Benefits”, Gwern Branwen: -
2015-deng.pdf: “Objective Bayesian Two Sample Hypothesis Testing for Online Controlled Experiments”, Alex Deng: -
statistic: “Statistical Notes”, Gwern Branwen: -
caffeine: “Caffeine Wakeup Experiment”, Gwern Branwen: -
2013-kennedy.pdf: “The Wait Calculation: The Broader Consequences of the Minimum Time from Now to Interstellar Destinations and Its Statistical-Significance to the Space Economy”, Andrew Kennedy: -
timing: “Timing Technology: Lessons From The Media Lab”, Gwern Branwen: -
ab-test: “A / B Testing Long-form Readability on Gwern.net”, Gwern Branwen: -
redshift: “Redshift Sleep Experiment”, Gwern Branwen: -
sunk-cost: “Are Sunk Costs Fallacies?”, Gwern Branwen: -
2007-hazan.pdf: “Logarithmic Regret Algorithms for Online Convex Optimization”, Elad Hazan, Amit Agarwal, Satyen Kale: -
https://www.freesfonline.net/content/Abraham1.pdf: “The Cambist and Lord Iron: A Fairy Tale of Economics”, Daniel Abraham: -
2006-kennedy.pdf: “Interstellar Travel: The Wait Calculation and the Incentive Trap of Progress”, Andrew Kennedy: -
https://www.ic.unicamp.br/~celio/peer2peer/math/mitzenmacher-power-of-two.pdf: “The Power of Two Random Choices: A Survey of Techniques and Results”, Michael Mitzenmacher, Andrea W. Richa, Ramesh Sitaraman: -
1996-lubinski-2.pdf: “Seeing The Forest From The Trees: When Predicting The Behavior Or Status Of Groups, Correlate Means”, David Lubinski, Lloyd G. Humphreys: