 See Also

Links
 “A/B Interactions: A Call to Relax”, Research 2023
 “Using Temperature to Analyze the Neural Basis of a Timebased Decision”, Monteiro et al 2023
 “Combining Human Expertise With Artificial Intelligence: Experimental Evidence from Radiology”, Agarwal et al 2023
 “You And Your Research”, Hamming 2023
 “Reinforcement Learning in Newcomblike Environments”, Bell et al 2023
 “Conditional Causal Decision Theory Reduces to Evidential Decision Theory”, Mohajeri 2023
 “The Nematode Worm C. Elegans Chooses between Bacterial Foods As If Maximizing Economic Utility”, Katzen et al 2023
 “How Honey Bees Make Fast and Accurate Decisions”, MaBouDi et al 2023
 “Simulated Automated Facial Recognition Systems As Decisionaids in Forensic Face Matching Tasks”, Carragher & Hancock 2022
 “Peltzman Revisited: Quantifying 21^{st}Century Opportunity Costs of FDA Regulation”, Mulligan 2022
 “Problem 14 Dynamic Programming Solutions”, Branwen et al 2022
 “Modeling Bounded Rationality in MultiAgent Simulations Using Rationally Inattentive Reinforcement Learning”, Anonymous 2022
 “Learning With Differentiable Algorithms”, Petersen 2022
 “Revisiting the Temporal Pattern of Regret in Action Versus Inaction: Replication of Gilovich & Medvec 1994 With Extensions Examining Responsibility”, Yeung & Feldman 2022
 “The Forecast Trap”, Boettiger 2022
 “Efficiently Irrational: Deciphering the Riddle of Human Choice”, Glimcher 2022
 “A Systematic Review of Human Challenge Trials, Designs, and Safety”, AdamsPhipps et al 2022
 “Which Findings Should Be Published?”, Frankel & Kasy 2022
 “The InterModel Vigorish (IMV): A Flexible and Portable Approach for Quantifying Predictive Accuracy With Binary Outcomes”, Domingue et al 2022
 “False Discovery in A/B Testing”, Berman & Bulte 2021
 “Noise Increases Anchoring Effects”, Lee & Morewedge 2021
 “Prior Knowledge Elicitation: The Past, Present, and Future”, Mikkola et al 2021
 “ΝSDDP: Neural Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming”, Dai et al 2021
 “A Rational Reinterpretation of Dualprocess Theories”, Milli et al 2021
 “Strategically Overconfident (to a Fault): How Selfpromotion Motivates Advisor Confidence”, Zant 2021
 “A Confirmation Bias in Perceptual Decisionmaking due to Hierarchical Approximate Inference”, Lange et al 2021
 “Enhanced Rationality in Autism Spectrum Disorder”, Rozenkrantz et al 2021
 “TV Advertising Effectiveness and Profitability: Generalizable Results From 288 Brands”, Shapiro et al 2021
 “Steps of Reasoning in Children and Adolescents”, Brocas & Carrillo 2021
 “Learning to Hesitate”, Descamps et al 2021
 “Alignment Problems With Current Forecasting Platforms”, Sempere & Lawsen 2021
 “Local Optima & Greedy Choices”, Gwern 2021
 “Solving Mixed Integer Programs Using Neural Networks”, Nair et al 2020
 “The Causal Foundations of Applied Probability and Statistics”, Greenland 2020
 “Adversarial Vulnerabilities of Human Decisionmaking”, Dezfouli et al 2020
 “Targeting for Longterm Outcomes”, Yang et al 2020
 “Optimal Peanut Butter and Banana Sandwiches”, Rosenthal 2020
 “Robust Decision Theory and Econometrics”, Chamberlain 2020
 “Speedaccuracy Tradeoff in Plants”, Ceccarini et al 2020
 “Modeling Imprecision in Perception, Valuation, and Choice”, Woodford 2020
 “A Comparison of Methods for Treatment Assignment With an Application to Playlist Generation”, FernándezLoría et al 2020
 “The Secret History of Facial Recognition: Sixty Years Ago, a Sharecropper’s Son Invented a Technology to Identify Faces. Then the Record of His Role All but Vanished. Who Was Woody Bledsoe, and Who Was He Working For?”, Raviv 2020
 “How People Decide What They Want to Know”, Sharot 2020
 “The Gambler’s Problem and Beyond”, Wang et al 2019
 “On 'Statistical Inference Enables Bad Science; Statistical Thinking Enables Good Science', Tong 2019”, Gelman 2019
 “Solving Pascal’s Mugging With Dynamic Programming”, Gwern 2019
 “The Vulnerable World Hypothesis”, Bostrom 2019
 “A/B Testing With Fat Tails”, Azevedo et al 2019
 “Bayesian Persuasion and Information Design”, Kamenica 2019
 “Generalizable and Robust TV Advertising Effects”, Shapiro et al 2019
 “How Should We Critique Research?”, Gwern 2019
 “Frank P. Ramsey Bibliography”, Gwern 2019
 “Is the FDA Too Conservative or Too Aggressive?: A Bayesian Decision Analysis of Clinical Trial Design”, Isakov et al 2019
 “Using the Results from Rigorous Multisite Evaluations to Inform Local Policy Decisions”, Orr et al 2019
 “Test Driving 'Power of Two Random Choices' Load Balancing”, Tarreau 2019
 “Reinventing the Wheel: Discovering the Optimal Rolling Shape With PyTorch”, Wiener 2019
 “Accounting Theory As a Bayesian Discipline”, Johnstone 2018
 “Evolution As Backstop for Reinforcement Learning”, Gwern 2018
 “Test & Roll: ProfitMaximizing A/B Tests”, Feit & Berman 2018
 “Computational Noise in Rewardguided Learning Drives Behavioral Variability in Volatile Environments”, Findling et al 2018
 “Dog Cloning For Special Forces: Breed All You Can Breed”, Gwern 2018
 “ActiveRemediation: The Search for Lead Pipes in Flint, Michigan”, Abernethy et al 2018
 “Delayed Impact of Fair Machine Learning”, Liu et al 2018
 “Ordered Preference Elicitation Strategies for Supporting MultiObjective Decision Making”, Zintgraf et al 2018
 “Differentiable Dynamic Programming for Structured Prediction and Attention”, Mensch & Blondel 2018
 “How to Train Your Oracle: The Delphi Method and Its Turbulent Youth in Operations Research and the Policy Sciences”, Dayé 2018
 “PHacking and False Discovery in A/B Testing”, Berman et al 2018
 “Better Decision Making in Drug Development Through Adoption of Formal Prior Elicitation”, Dallow et al 2017
 “Willpower Satisficing”, Chappell 2017
 “Toward a Rational and Mechanistic Account of Mental Effort”, Shenhav et al 2017
 “Pricing the Future in the 17^{th} Century: Calculating Technologies in Competition”, Deringer 2017
 “SelfBlinded Mineral Water Taste Test”, Gwern 2017
 “The Kelly CoinFlipping Game: Exact Solutions”, Branwen et al 2017
 “Banner Ads Considered Harmful”, Gwern 2017
 “Rational DecisionMaking Under Uncertainty: Observed Betting Patterns on a Biased Coin”, Haghani & Dewey 2017
 “Search in Patchy Media: Exploitationexploration Tradeoff”
 “The Risk Elicitation Puzzle”, Pedroni et al 2017
 “Was Angelina Jolie Right? Optimizing Cancer Prevention Strategies Among BRCA Mutation Carriers”, Nohdurft et al 2017
 “The ExploreExploit Dilemma in Media Consumption”, Gwern 2016
 “AI Risk Demos”, Gwern 2016
 “Internet WiFi Improvement”, Gwern 2016
 “The Performance Pay Nobel”, Tabarrok 2016
 “Embryo Selection For Intelligence”, Gwern 2016
 “Embryo Editing for Intelligence”, Gwern 2016
 “Brainless but MultiHeaded: Decision Making by the Acellular Slime Mould Physarum Polycephalum”, Beekman & Latty 2015
 “Bitter Melon for Blood Glucose”, Gwern 2015
 “Deep DPG (DDPG): Continuous Control With Deep Reinforcement Learning”, Lillicrap et al 2015
 “Reflective Oracles: A Foundation for Classical Game Theory”, Fallenstein et al 2015
 “Costs and Benefits of Iodine Supplementation for Pregnant Women in a Mildly to Moderately Iodinedeficient Population: a Modelling Analysis”, Monahan et al 2015
 “The Unfavorable Economics of Measuring the Returns to Advertising”, Lewis & Rao 2015
 “When Should I Check The Mail?”, Gwern 2015
 “Life Extension CostBenefits”, Gwern 2015
 “Objective Bayesian Two Sample Hypothesis Testing for Online Controlled Experiments”, Deng 2015
 “Selectiongain: an R Package for Optimizing Multistage Selection”, Mi et al 2015
 “Focusing on the Longterm: It’s Good for Users and Business”, Hohnhold et al 2015
 “Ethics of Lithotomy”, Gwern 2014
 “Statistical Notes”, Gwern 2014
 “Red Black Card Game and Generalized Catalan Numbers”, Howe 2014
 “On the Near Impossibility of Measuring the Returns to Advertising”, Lewis & Rao 2013
 “Caffeine Wakeup Experiment”, Gwern 2013
 “The Wait Calculation: The Broader Consequences of the Minimum Time from Now to Interstellar Destinations and Its StatisticalSignificance to the Space Economy”, Kennedy 2013
 “Rerandomization to Improve Covariate Balance in Experiments”, Morgan & Rubin 2012
 “Timing Technology: Lessons From The Media Lab”, Gwern 2012
 “A/B Testing Longform Readability on Gwern.net”, Gwern 2012
 “Redshift Sleep Experiment”, Gwern 2012
 “Are Sunk Costs Fallacies?”, Gwern 2012
 “Does Retail Advertising Work? Measuring the Effects of Advertising on Sales Via a Controlled Experiment on Yahoo”, Lewis & Reiley 2011
 “Utility of HumanComputer Interactions: Toward a Science of Preference Measurement”, Toomim et al 2011
 “Here, There, and Everywhere: Correlated Online Behaviors Can Lead to Overestimates of the Effects of Advertising”, Lewis et al 2011
 “Travelers’ Types”, BrãnasGarza et al 2011
 “Improving Vineyard Sampling Efficiency via Dynamic Spatially Explicit Optimisation”, Meyers et al 2011
 “The Time Resolution of the St Petersburg Paradox”, Peters 2011
 “On the Heritability of Consumer Decision Making: An Exploratory Approach for Studying Genetic Effects on Judgment and Choice”, Simonson & Sela 2010
 “How to Improve R&D Productivity: the Pharmaceutical Industry’s Grand Challenge”, Paul et al 2010
 “Drug Harms in the UK: a Multicriteria Decision Analysis”, Nutt et al 2010
 “Convergence of Expected Utility for Universal AI”, Blanc 2009
 “Console Insurance Is A Ripoff”, Gwern 2009
 “Anp060–79 407..506”
 “Adversarial Risk Analysis”, Insua et al 2009
 “Retrospectives Guinnessometrics: The Economic Foundation of ‘Student’s’ t”, Ziliak 2008
 “Convergence of Expected Utilities With Algorithmic Probability Distributions”, Blanc 2007
 “Logarithmic Regret Algorithms for Online Convex Optimization”, Hazan et al 2007
 “The Guidelines Manual—Chapter 8: Incorporating Health Economics in Guidelines and Assessing Resource Impact”, NICE 2007
 “On the Evolution of Investment Strategies and the Kelly Rule—A Darwinian Approach”, Lensberg & SchenkHoppé 2007
 “The Cambist and Lord Iron: A Fairy Tale of Economics”, Abraham 2007
 “Cognition and Behavior in TwoPerson Guessing Games: An Experimental Study”, CostaGomes & Crawford 2006
 “Information Systems Project Continuation in Escalation Situations: A Real Options Model”, Tiwana et al 2006
 “Decision by Sampling”, Stewart et al 2006
 “Interstellar Travel: The Wait Calculation and the Incentive Trap of Progress”, Kennedy 2006
 “The Optimizer’s Curse: Skepticism and Postdecision Surprise in Decision Analysis”, Smith & Winkler 2006
 “Investing in the Unknown and Unknowable”, Zeckhauser 2006
 “The Kelly Criterion in Blackjack Sports Betting, and the Stock Market”, Thorp 2006
 “Good and Real: Demystifying Paradoxes from Physics to Ethics”, Drescher 2006
 “A Systematic Review on Communicating With Patients about Evidence”, Trevena et al 2005
 “Bayesian Informal Logic and Fallacy”, Korb 2004
 “Uncertainty and the Value of Diagnostic Information, With Application to Axillary Lymph Node Dissection in Breast Cancer”
 “Policy Mining: Learning Decision Policies from Fixed Sets of Data”, Zadrozny 2003
 “John W. Tukey: His Life and Professional Contributions”, Brillinger 2002
 “DART: Revolutionizing Logistics Planning”, Hedberg 2002
 “Comments on the Origin and Application of Markov Decision Processes”, Howard 2002
 “Stigler's Diet Problem Revisited”, Garille & Gass 2001
 “William Sealy Gosset”, Fienberg & Lazar 2001
 “The Power of Two Random Choices: A Survey of Techniques and Results”, Mitzenmacher et al 2001
 “Bayesian Valueofinformation Analysis: an Application to a Policy Model of Alzheimer’s Disease”, Caxton 2001
 “Should We Take Measurements at an Intermediate Design Point?”, Gelman 2000
 “Rational Choice Theory”, Scott 2000
 “Averaging Expert Predictions”, Kivinen & Warmuth 1999
 “Comparing Classifiers When the Misallocation Costs Are Uncertain”, Adams & Hand 1999
 “Adding Risks: Samuelson's Fallacy of Large Numbers Revisited”, Ross 1999
 “A Conversation With I. Richard Savage (with the Assistance of Bruce Spencer)”, Sampson 1999
 “Information Theory and an Extension of the Maximum Likelihood Principle”, Akaike 1998
 “‘Improving Ratings’: Audit in the British University System”, Strathern 1997
 “Comments on Tengs Et Al ‘Comparative Study of the CostEffectiveness of LifeSaving Interventions’”
 “The ‘awful Idea of Accountability’: Inscribing People into the Measurement of Objects”, Hoskin 1996
 “Seeing The Forest From The Trees: When Predicting The Behavior Or Status Of Groups, Correlate Means”, Lubinski & Humphreys 1996b
 “FiveHundred LifeSaving Interventions and Their CostEffectiveness”
 “_Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory_”
 “Processing Linguistic Probabilities: General Principles and Empirical Evidence”, Budescu & Wallsten 1995
 “Noise and Learning in Semiconductor Manufacturing”, Bohn 1995
 “Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping and Wagering Systems: A Report”, Hausch et al 1994
 “The Temporal Pattern to the Experience of Regret”, Gilovich & Medvec 1994
 “Bayesian Updating in Hierarchic Markov Processes Applied to the Animal Replacement Problem”, Kristensen 1993
 “Universal Portfolios”, Cover 1991
 “Learning from Coarse Information: Biased Contests and Career Profiles”, Meyer 1991
 “The Diet Problem”, Dantzig 1990
 “Weight or the Value of Knowledge”, Ramsey 1990
 “‘Student’: A Statistical Biography of William Sealy Gosset”, Pearson et al 1990
 “F. P. Ramsey: Philosophical Papers”, Ramsey & Mellor 1990
 “The Total Evidence Theorem for Probability Kinematics”, Graves 1989
 “Nonlinear Preference and Utility Theory”, Fishburn 1988
 “A Shortest Augmenting Path Algorithm for Dense and Sparse Linear Assignment Problems”
 “Measuring the Vague Meanings of Probability Terms”, Wallsten et al 1986
 “Searching for Positive Returns at the Track: A Multinomial Logit Model for Handicapping Horse Races”
 “An Examination of Two Alternative Techniques to Estimate the Standard Deviation of Job Performance in Dollars”, Reilly & Smither 1985
 “Game Theoretic Analysis of a Bankruptcy Problem from the Talmud”, Aumann & Maschler 1985
 “Influence Diagrams”, Howard & Matheson 1984
 “Reevaluation of Decision Alternatives Dependent upon the Reversibility of a Decision and the Passage of Time”
 “The Citation Bias: Fad and Fashion in the Judgment and Decision Literature”, ChristensenSzalanski & Beach 1984
 “Readings on the Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis: Volume 2: Professional Collection”, Howard & Matheson 1983
 “Readings on the Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis: Volume 1: General Collection”, Howard & Matheson 1983
 “The Variance of Discounted Markov Decision Processes”
 “MultiBayesian Statistical Decision Theory”, Weerahandi & Zidek 1981
 “Reversible and Irreversible Decisions: Preference for Consonant Information As a Function of Attractiveness of Decision Alternatives”, Frey 1981
 “Impact of Valid Selection Procedures on Workforce Productivity”, Schmidt et al 1979
 “Prisoners' Dilemma Is a Newcomb Problem”, Lewis 1979
 “Robustness in the Strategy of Scientific Model Building”, Box 1979
 “Tools for Thought”, Waddington 1977
 “Science and Statistics”, Box 1976
 “When Values Conflict: Essays on Environmental Analysis, Discourse, and Decision”, Tribe et al 1976
 “Boundaries of Analysis: An Inquiry into the Tocks Island Dam Controversy”, Feiveson et al 1976
 “Portfolio Choice and the Kelly Criterion”, Thorp 1975
 “CrossModality Matching of Money Against Other Continua”, Galanter & Pliner 1974
 “The General Impossibility of Normative Accounting Standards”, Demski 1973
 “An Evaluation of Consumer Protection Legislation: The 1962 Drug Amendments”, Peltzman 1973
 “The Theory of Social Choice”, Fishburn 1973
 “What Makes for a Beautiful Problem in Science?”, Samuelson 1970
 “The Practicality Gap”, Howard 1968
 “General Proof That Diversification Pays”, Samuelson 1967
 “Systems Analysis Problems of Limited War”, Weiss 1966
 “Optimal Dairy Cow Replacement Policies”, Giaever 1966
 “Measuring Utility by a Singleresponse Sequential Method”, Becker et al 1964
 “Sequential Medical Trials”
 “A Model for Selecting One of Two Medical Treatments”, Colton 1963
 “Probability, Statistical Decision Theory, and Accounting”, Bierman 1962
 “Studies of War, Nuclear and Conventional”, Blackett 1962
 “Applied Statistical Decision Theory”, Raiffa & Schlaifer 1961
 “Gradient Theory of Optimal Flight Paths”, Kelley 1960
 “Letter to the Editor—A Classroom Example of Linear Programming (Lesson Number 2)”, Jewell 1960
 “Rational DecisionMaking In Portfolio Management”, Latané 1959b
 “Criteria for Choice Among Risky Ventures”, Latané 1959
 “Testing Statistical Hypotheses (First Edition)”, Lehmann 1959
 “Probability and Statistics for Business Decisions: An Introduction to Managerial Economics Under Uncertainty”, Schlaifer 1959
 “An Optimum Character Recognition System Using Decision Functions”, Chow 1957
 “Evolutionary Operation: A Method for Increasing Industrial Productivity”
 “Unsolved Problems of Experimental Statistics”, Tukey 1954
 “NonCooperative Games”, Nash 1951
 “The Economic Life of Industrial Equipment”, Preinreich 1940
 “The Relationship Of Validity Coefficients To The Practical Effectiveness Of Tests In Selection: Discussion And Tables”
 “"Student" As Statistician”, Pearson 1939
 “Presidential Address to the First Indian Statistical Congress”, Fisher 1938
 “On the Theory of Apportionment”
 “The Lanarkshire Milk Experiment”, Elderton 1933
 “The Lanarkshire Milk Experiment [Student]”, Gosset 1931
 “Pasteurised and Raw Milk”, Fisher & Bartlett 1931
 “On Testing Varieties of Cereals”, Gosset 1923
 “The Application Of The ‘Law Of Error’ To The Work Of The Brewery”, Gosset 1904
 “In Praise of Sparsity and Convexity”, Tibshirani 2023 (page 518)
 “Why We Can't Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They're Unbiased)”
 Sort By Magic
 Wikipedia
 Miscellaneous
 Link Bibliography
See Also
Links
“A/B Interactions: A Call to Relax”, Research 2023
“Using Temperature to Analyze the Neural Basis of a Timebased Decision”, Monteiro et al 2023
“Using temperature to analyze the neural basis of a timebased decision”
“Combining Human Expertise With Artificial Intelligence: Experimental Evidence from Radiology”, Agarwal et al 2023
“Combining Human Expertise with Artificial Intelligence: Experimental Evidence from Radiology”
“You And Your Research”, Hamming 2023
“Reinforcement Learning in Newcomblike Environments”, Bell et al 2023
“Conditional Causal Decision Theory Reduces to Evidential Decision Theory”, Mohajeri 2023
“Conditional causal decision theory reduces to evidential decision theory”
“The Nematode Worm C. Elegans Chooses between Bacterial Foods As If Maximizing Economic Utility”, Katzen et al 2023
“The nematode worm C. elegans chooses between bacterial foods as if maximizing economic utility”
“How Honey Bees Make Fast and Accurate Decisions”, MaBouDi et al 2023
“Simulated Automated Facial Recognition Systems As Decisionaids in Forensic Face Matching Tasks”, Carragher & Hancock 2022
“Simulated automated facial recognition systems as decisionaids in forensic face matching tasks”
“Peltzman Revisited: Quantifying 21^{st}Century Opportunity Costs of FDA Regulation”, Mulligan 2022
“Peltzman Revisited: Quantifying 21^{st}Century Opportunity Costs of FDA Regulation”
“Problem 14 Dynamic Programming Solutions”, Branwen et al 2022
“Modeling Bounded Rationality in MultiAgent Simulations Using Rationally Inattentive Reinforcement Learning”, Anonymous 2022
“Learning With Differentiable Algorithms”, Petersen 2022
“Revisiting the Temporal Pattern of Regret in Action Versus Inaction: Replication of Gilovich & Medvec 1994 With Extensions Examining Responsibility”, Yeung & Feldman 2022
“The Forecast Trap”, Boettiger 2022
“Efficiently Irrational: Deciphering the Riddle of Human Choice”, Glimcher 2022
“Efficiently irrational: deciphering the riddle of human choice”
“A Systematic Review of Human Challenge Trials, Designs, and Safety”, AdamsPhipps et al 2022
“A Systematic Review of Human Challenge Trials, Designs, and Safety”
“Which Findings Should Be Published?”, Frankel & Kasy 2022
“The InterModel Vigorish (IMV): A Flexible and Portable Approach for Quantifying Predictive Accuracy With Binary Outcomes”, Domingue et al 2022
“False Discovery in A/B Testing”, Berman & Bulte 2021
“Noise Increases Anchoring Effects”, Lee & Morewedge 2021
“Prior Knowledge Elicitation: The Past, Present, and Future”, Mikkola et al 2021
“Prior knowledge elicitation: The past, present, and future”
“ΝSDDP: Neural Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming”, Dai et al 2021
“A Rational Reinterpretation of Dualprocess Theories”, Milli et al 2021
“Strategically Overconfident (to a Fault): How Selfpromotion Motivates Advisor Confidence”, Zant 2021
“Strategically overconfident (to a fault): How selfpromotion motivates advisor confidence”
“A Confirmation Bias in Perceptual Decisionmaking due to Hierarchical Approximate Inference”, Lange et al 2021
“A confirmation bias in perceptual decisionmaking due to hierarchical approximate inference”
“Enhanced Rationality in Autism Spectrum Disorder”, Rozenkrantz et al 2021
“TV Advertising Effectiveness and Profitability: Generalizable Results From 288 Brands”, Shapiro et al 2021
“TV Advertising Effectiveness and Profitability: Generalizable Results From 288 Brands”
“Steps of Reasoning in Children and Adolescents”, Brocas & Carrillo 2021
“Learning to Hesitate”, Descamps et al 2021
“Alignment Problems With Current Forecasting Platforms”, Sempere & Lawsen 2021
“Local Optima & Greedy Choices”, Gwern 2021
“Solving Mixed Integer Programs Using Neural Networks”, Nair et al 2020
“The Causal Foundations of Applied Probability and Statistics”, Greenland 2020
“The causal foundations of applied probability and statistics”
“Adversarial Vulnerabilities of Human Decisionmaking”, Dezfouli et al 2020
“Targeting for Longterm Outcomes”, Yang et al 2020
“Optimal Peanut Butter and Banana Sandwiches”, Rosenthal 2020
“Robust Decision Theory and Econometrics”, Chamberlain 2020
“Speedaccuracy Tradeoff in Plants”, Ceccarini et al 2020
“Modeling Imprecision in Perception, Valuation, and Choice”, Woodford 2020
“A Comparison of Methods for Treatment Assignment With an Application to Playlist Generation”, FernándezLoría et al 2020
“A Comparison of Methods for Treatment Assignment with an Application to Playlist Generation”
“The Secret History of Facial Recognition: Sixty Years Ago, a Sharecropper’s Son Invented a Technology to Identify Faces. Then the Record of His Role All but Vanished. Who Was Woody Bledsoe, and Who Was He Working For?”, Raviv 2020
“The Gambler’s Problem and Beyond”, Wang et al 2019
“On 'Statistical Inference Enables Bad Science; Statistical Thinking Enables Good Science', Tong 2019”, Gelman 2019
“Solving Pascal’s Mugging With Dynamic Programming”, Gwern 2019
“The Vulnerable World Hypothesis”, Bostrom 2019
“A/B Testing With Fat Tails”, Azevedo et al 2019
“Bayesian Persuasion and Information Design”, Kamenica 2019
“Generalizable and Robust TV Advertising Effects”, Shapiro et al 2019
“How Should We Critique Research?”, Gwern 2019
“Frank P. Ramsey Bibliography”, Gwern 2019
“Is the FDA Too Conservative or Too Aggressive?: A Bayesian Decision Analysis of Clinical Trial Design”, Isakov et al 2019
“Using the Results from Rigorous Multisite Evaluations to Inform Local Policy Decisions”, Orr et al 2019
“Using the Results from Rigorous Multisite Evaluations to Inform Local Policy Decisions”
“Test Driving 'Power of Two Random Choices' Load Balancing”, Tarreau 2019
“Reinventing the Wheel: Discovering the Optimal Rolling Shape With PyTorch”, Wiener 2019
“Reinventing the Wheel: Discovering the Optimal Rolling Shape with PyTorch”
“Accounting Theory As a Bayesian Discipline”, Johnstone 2018
“Evolution As Backstop for Reinforcement Learning”, Gwern 2018
“Test & Roll: ProfitMaximizing A/B Tests”, Feit & Berman 2018
“Computational Noise in Rewardguided Learning Drives Behavioral Variability in Volatile Environments”, Findling et al 2018
“Dog Cloning For Special Forces: Breed All You Can Breed”, Gwern 2018
“ActiveRemediation: The Search for Lead Pipes in Flint, Michigan”, Abernethy et al 2018
“ActiveRemediation: The Search for Lead Pipes in Flint, Michigan”
“Delayed Impact of Fair Machine Learning”, Liu et al 2018
“Ordered Preference Elicitation Strategies for Supporting MultiObjective Decision Making”, Zintgraf et al 2018
“Ordered Preference Elicitation Strategies for Supporting MultiObjective Decision Making”
“Differentiable Dynamic Programming for Structured Prediction and Attention”, Mensch & Blondel 2018
“Differentiable Dynamic Programming for Structured Prediction and Attention”
“How to Train Your Oracle: The Delphi Method and Its Turbulent Youth in Operations Research and the Policy Sciences”, Dayé 2018
“PHacking and False Discovery in A/B Testing”, Berman et al 2018
“Better Decision Making in Drug Development Through Adoption of Formal Prior Elicitation”, Dallow et al 2017
“Better Decision Making in Drug Development Through Adoption of Formal Prior Elicitation”
“Willpower Satisficing”, Chappell 2017
“Toward a Rational and Mechanistic Account of Mental Effort”, Shenhav et al 2017
“Toward a Rational and Mechanistic Account of Mental Effort”
“Pricing the Future in the 17^{th} Century: Calculating Technologies in Competition”, Deringer 2017
“Pricing the Future in the 17^{th} Century: Calculating Technologies in Competition”
“SelfBlinded Mineral Water Taste Test”, Gwern 2017
“The Kelly CoinFlipping Game: Exact Solutions”, Branwen et al 2017
“Banner Ads Considered Harmful”, Gwern 2017
“Rational DecisionMaking Under Uncertainty: Observed Betting Patterns on a Biased Coin”, Haghani & Dewey 2017
“Rational DecisionMaking Under Uncertainty: Observed Betting Patterns on a Biased Coin”
“Search in Patchy Media: Exploitationexploration Tradeoff”
“The Risk Elicitation Puzzle”, Pedroni et al 2017
“Was Angelina Jolie Right? Optimizing Cancer Prevention Strategies Among BRCA Mutation Carriers”, Nohdurft et al 2017
“Was Angelina Jolie Right? Optimizing Cancer Prevention Strategies Among BRCA Mutation Carriers”
“The ExploreExploit Dilemma in Media Consumption”, Gwern 2016
“AI Risk Demos”, Gwern 2016
“Internet WiFi Improvement”, Gwern 2016
“The Performance Pay Nobel”, Tabarrok 2016
“Embryo Selection For Intelligence”, Gwern 2016
“Embryo Editing for Intelligence”, Gwern 2016
“Brainless but MultiHeaded: Decision Making by the Acellular Slime Mould Physarum Polycephalum”, Beekman & Latty 2015
“Brainless but MultiHeaded: Decision Making by the Acellular Slime Mould Physarum polycephalum”
“Bitter Melon for Blood Glucose”, Gwern 2015
“Deep DPG (DDPG): Continuous Control With Deep Reinforcement Learning”, Lillicrap et al 2015
“Deep DPG (DDPG): Continuous control with deep reinforcement learning”
“Reflective Oracles: A Foundation for Classical Game Theory”, Fallenstein et al 2015
“Reflective Oracles: A Foundation for Classical Game Theory”
“Costs and Benefits of Iodine Supplementation for Pregnant Women in a Mildly to Moderately Iodinedeficient Population: a Modelling Analysis”, Monahan et al 2015
“The Unfavorable Economics of Measuring the Returns to Advertising”, Lewis & Rao 2015
“The Unfavorable Economics of Measuring the Returns to Advertising”
“When Should I Check The Mail?”, Gwern 2015
“Life Extension CostBenefits”, Gwern 2015
“Objective Bayesian Two Sample Hypothesis Testing for Online Controlled Experiments”, Deng 2015
“Objective Bayesian Two Sample Hypothesis Testing for Online Controlled Experiments”
“Selectiongain: an R Package for Optimizing Multistage Selection”, Mi et al 2015
“Selectiongain: an R package for optimizing multistage selection”
“Focusing on the Longterm: It’s Good for Users and Business”, Hohnhold et al 2015
“Focusing on the Longterm: It’s Good for Users and Business”
“Ethics of Lithotomy”, Gwern 2014
“Statistical Notes”, Gwern 2014
“Red Black Card Game and Generalized Catalan Numbers”, Howe 2014
“On the Near Impossibility of Measuring the Returns to Advertising”, Lewis & Rao 2013
“On the Near Impossibility of Measuring the Returns to Advertising”
“Caffeine Wakeup Experiment”, Gwern 2013
“The Wait Calculation: The Broader Consequences of the Minimum Time from Now to Interstellar Destinations and Its StatisticalSignificance to the Space Economy”, Kennedy 2013
“Rerandomization to Improve Covariate Balance in Experiments”, Morgan & Rubin 2012
“Rerandomization to improve covariate balance in experiments”
“Timing Technology: Lessons From The Media Lab”, Gwern 2012
“A/B Testing Longform Readability on Gwern.net”, Gwern 2012
“Redshift Sleep Experiment”, Gwern 2012
“Are Sunk Costs Fallacies?”, Gwern 2012
“Does Retail Advertising Work? Measuring the Effects of Advertising on Sales Via a Controlled Experiment on Yahoo”, Lewis & Reiley 2011
“Utility of HumanComputer Interactions: Toward a Science of Preference Measurement”, Toomim et al 2011
“Utility of HumanComputer Interactions: Toward a Science of Preference Measurement”
“Here, There, and Everywhere: Correlated Online Behaviors Can Lead to Overestimates of the Effects of Advertising”, Lewis et al 2011
“Travelers’ Types”, BrãnasGarza et al 2011
“Improving Vineyard Sampling Efficiency via Dynamic Spatially Explicit Optimisation”, Meyers et al 2011
“Improving vineyard sampling efficiency via dynamic spatially explicit optimisation”
“The Time Resolution of the St Petersburg Paradox”, Peters 2011
“On the Heritability of Consumer Decision Making: An Exploratory Approach for Studying Genetic Effects on Judgment and Choice”, Simonson & Sela 2010
“How to Improve R&D Productivity: the Pharmaceutical Industry’s Grand Challenge”, Paul et al 2010
“How to improve R&D productivity: the pharmaceutical industry’s grand challenge”
“Drug Harms in the UK: a Multicriteria Decision Analysis”, Nutt et al 2010
“Convergence of Expected Utility for Universal AI”, Blanc 2009
“Console Insurance Is A Ripoff”, Gwern 2009
“Anp060–79 407..506”
“Adversarial Risk Analysis”, Insua et al 2009
“Retrospectives Guinnessometrics: The Economic Foundation of ‘Student’s’ t”, Ziliak 2008
“Retrospectives Guinnessometrics: The Economic Foundation of ‘Student’s’ t”
“Convergence of Expected Utilities With Algorithmic Probability Distributions”, Blanc 2007
“Convergence of Expected Utilities with Algorithmic Probability Distributions”
“Logarithmic Regret Algorithms for Online Convex Optimization”, Hazan et al 2007
“Logarithmic regret algorithms for online convex optimization”
“The Guidelines Manual—Chapter 8: Incorporating Health Economics in Guidelines and Assessing Resource Impact”, NICE 2007
“On the Evolution of Investment Strategies and the Kelly Rule—A Darwinian Approach”, Lensberg & SchenkHoppé 2007
“On the Evolution of Investment Strategies and the Kelly Rule—A Darwinian Approach”
“The Cambist and Lord Iron: A Fairy Tale of Economics”, Abraham 2007
“Cognition and Behavior in TwoPerson Guessing Games: An Experimental Study”, CostaGomes & Crawford 2006
“Cognition and Behavior in TwoPerson Guessing Games: An Experimental Study”
“Information Systems Project Continuation in Escalation Situations: A Real Options Model”, Tiwana et al 2006
“Information Systems Project Continuation in Escalation Situations: A Real Options Model”
“Decision by Sampling”, Stewart et al 2006
“Interstellar Travel: The Wait Calculation and the Incentive Trap of Progress”, Kennedy 2006
“Interstellar Travel: The Wait Calculation and the Incentive Trap of Progress”
“The Optimizer’s Curse: Skepticism and Postdecision Surprise in Decision Analysis”, Smith & Winkler 2006
“The Optimizer’s Curse: Skepticism and Postdecision Surprise in Decision Analysis”
“Investing in the Unknown and Unknowable”, Zeckhauser 2006
“The Kelly Criterion in Blackjack Sports Betting, and the Stock Market”, Thorp 2006
“The Kelly Criterion in Blackjack Sports Betting, and the Stock Market”
“Good and Real: Demystifying Paradoxes from Physics to Ethics”, Drescher 2006
“Good and Real: Demystifying Paradoxes from Physics to Ethics”
“A Systematic Review on Communicating With Patients about Evidence”, Trevena et al 2005
“A systematic review on communicating with patients about evidence”
“Bayesian Informal Logic and Fallacy”, Korb 2004
“Uncertainty and the Value of Diagnostic Information, With Application to Axillary Lymph Node Dissection in Breast Cancer”
“Policy Mining: Learning Decision Policies from Fixed Sets of Data”, Zadrozny 2003
“Policy Mining: Learning Decision Policies from Fixed Sets of Data”
“John W. Tukey: His Life and Professional Contributions”, Brillinger 2002
“DART: Revolutionizing Logistics Planning”, Hedberg 2002
“Comments on the Origin and Application of Markov Decision Processes”, Howard 2002
“Comments on the Origin and Application of Markov Decision Processes”
“Stigler's Diet Problem Revisited”, Garille & Gass 2001
“William Sealy Gosset”, Fienberg & Lazar 2001
“The Power of Two Random Choices: A Survey of Techniques and Results”, Mitzenmacher et al 2001
“The Power of Two Random Choices: A Survey of Techniques and Results”
“Bayesian Valueofinformation Analysis: an Application to a Policy Model of Alzheimer’s Disease”, Caxton 2001
“Bayesian valueofinformation analysis: an application to a policy model of Alzheimer’s disease”
“Should We Take Measurements at an Intermediate Design Point?”, Gelman 2000
“Should we take measurements at an intermediate design point?”
“Rational Choice Theory”, Scott 2000
“Averaging Expert Predictions”, Kivinen & Warmuth 1999
“Comparing Classifiers When the Misallocation Costs Are Uncertain”, Adams & Hand 1999
“Comparing classifiers when the misallocation costs are uncertain”
“Adding Risks: Samuelson's Fallacy of Large Numbers Revisited”, Ross 1999
“Adding Risks: Samuelson's Fallacy of Large Numbers Revisited”
“A Conversation With I. Richard Savage (with the Assistance of Bruce Spencer)”, Sampson 1999
“A conversation with I. Richard Savage (with the assistance of Bruce Spencer)”
“Information Theory and an Extension of the Maximum Likelihood Principle”, Akaike 1998
“Information Theory and an Extension of the Maximum Likelihood Principle”
“‘Improving Ratings’: Audit in the British University System”, Strathern 1997
“‘Improving ratings’: audit in the British University system”
“Comments on Tengs Et Al ‘Comparative Study of the CostEffectiveness of LifeSaving Interventions’”
“Comments on Tengs et al ‘Comparative Study of the CostEffectiveness of LifeSaving Interventions’”
“The ‘awful Idea of Accountability’: Inscribing People into the Measurement of Objects”, Hoskin 1996
“The ‘awful idea of accountability’: inscribing people into the measurement of objects”
“Seeing The Forest From The Trees: When Predicting The Behavior Or Status Of Groups, Correlate Means”, Lubinski & Humphreys 1996b
“FiveHundred LifeSaving Interventions and Their CostEffectiveness”
“FiveHundred LifeSaving Interventions and Their CostEffectiveness”
“_Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory_”
“Processing Linguistic Probabilities: General Principles and Empirical Evidence”, Budescu & Wallsten 1995
“Processing Linguistic Probabilities: General Principles and Empirical Evidence”
“Noise and Learning in Semiconductor Manufacturing”, Bohn 1995
“Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping and Wagering Systems: A Report”, Hausch et al 1994
“Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping and Wagering Systems: A Report”
“The Temporal Pattern to the Experience of Regret”, Gilovich & Medvec 1994
“Bayesian Updating in Hierarchic Markov Processes Applied to the Animal Replacement Problem”, Kristensen 1993
“Bayesian updating in hierarchic Markov processes applied to the animal replacement problem”
“Universal Portfolios”, Cover 1991
“Learning from Coarse Information: Biased Contests and Career Profiles”, Meyer 1991
“Learning from Coarse Information: Biased Contests and Career Profiles”
“The Diet Problem”, Dantzig 1990
“Weight or the Value of Knowledge”, Ramsey 1990
“‘Student’: A Statistical Biography of William Sealy Gosset”, Pearson et al 1990
“‘Student’: A Statistical Biography of William Sealy Gosset”
“F. P. Ramsey: Philosophical Papers”, Ramsey & Mellor 1990
“The Total Evidence Theorem for Probability Kinematics”, Graves 1989
“Nonlinear Preference and Utility Theory”, Fishburn 1988
“A Shortest Augmenting Path Algorithm for Dense and Sparse Linear Assignment Problems”
“A shortest augmenting path algorithm for dense and sparse linear assignment problems”
“Measuring the Vague Meanings of Probability Terms”, Wallsten et al 1986
“Searching for Positive Returns at the Track: A Multinomial Logit Model for Handicapping Horse Races”
“An Examination of Two Alternative Techniques to Estimate the Standard Deviation of Job Performance in Dollars”, Reilly & Smither 1985
“Game Theoretic Analysis of a Bankruptcy Problem from the Talmud”, Aumann & Maschler 1985
“Game theoretic analysis of a bankruptcy problem from the Talmud”
“Influence Diagrams”, Howard & Matheson 1984
“Reevaluation of Decision Alternatives Dependent upon the Reversibility of a Decision and the Passage of Time”
“The Citation Bias: Fad and Fashion in the Judgment and Decision Literature”, ChristensenSzalanski & Beach 1984
“The Citation Bias: Fad and Fashion in the Judgment and Decision Literature”
“Readings on the Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis: Volume 2: Professional Collection”, Howard & Matheson 1983
“Readings on the Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis: Volume 1: General Collection”, Howard & Matheson 1983
“Readings on the Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis: Volume 1: General Collection”
“The Variance of Discounted Markov Decision Processes”
“MultiBayesian Statistical Decision Theory”, Weerahandi & Zidek 1981
“Reversible and Irreversible Decisions: Preference for Consonant Information As a Function of Attractiveness of Decision Alternatives”, Frey 1981
“Impact of Valid Selection Procedures on Workforce Productivity”, Schmidt et al 1979
“Impact of valid selection procedures on workforce productivity”
“Prisoners' Dilemma Is a Newcomb Problem”, Lewis 1979
“Robustness in the Strategy of Scientific Model Building”, Box 1979
“Tools for Thought”, Waddington 1977
“Science and Statistics”, Box 1976
“When Values Conflict: Essays on Environmental Analysis, Discourse, and Decision”, Tribe et al 1976
“When Values Conflict: Essays on Environmental Analysis, Discourse, and Decision”
“Boundaries of Analysis: An Inquiry into the Tocks Island Dam Controversy”, Feiveson et al 1976
“Boundaries of Analysis: An Inquiry into the Tocks Island Dam Controversy”
“Portfolio Choice and the Kelly Criterion”, Thorp 1975
“CrossModality Matching of Money Against Other Continua”, Galanter & Pliner 1974
“The General Impossibility of Normative Accounting Standards”, Demski 1973
“The General Impossibility of Normative Accounting Standards”
“An Evaluation of Consumer Protection Legislation: The 1962 Drug Amendments”, Peltzman 1973
“An Evaluation of Consumer Protection Legislation: The 1962 Drug Amendments”
“The Theory of Social Choice”, Fishburn 1973
“What Makes for a Beautiful Problem in Science?”, Samuelson 1970
“The Practicality Gap”, Howard 1968
“General Proof That Diversification Pays”, Samuelson 1967
“Systems Analysis Problems of Limited War”, Weiss 1966
“Optimal Dairy Cow Replacement Policies”, Giaever 1966
“Measuring Utility by a Singleresponse Sequential Method”, Becker et al 1964
“Sequential Medical Trials”
“A Model for Selecting One of Two Medical Treatments”, Colton 1963
“Probability, Statistical Decision Theory, and Accounting”, Bierman 1962
“Studies of War, Nuclear and Conventional”, Blackett 1962
“Applied Statistical Decision Theory”, Raiffa & Schlaifer 1961
“Gradient Theory of Optimal Flight Paths”, Kelley 1960
“Letter to the Editor—A Classroom Example of Linear Programming (Lesson Number 2)”, Jewell 1960
“Letter to the Editor—A Classroom Example of Linear Programming (Lesson Number 2)”
“Rational DecisionMaking In Portfolio Management”, Latané 1959b
“Criteria for Choice Among Risky Ventures”, Latané 1959
“Testing Statistical Hypotheses (First Edition)”, Lehmann 1959
“Probability and Statistics for Business Decisions: An Introduction to Managerial Economics Under Uncertainty”, Schlaifer 1959
“An Optimum Character Recognition System Using Decision Functions”, Chow 1957
“An Optimum Character Recognition System Using Decision Functions”
“Evolutionary Operation: A Method for Increasing Industrial Productivity”
“Evolutionary Operation: A Method for Increasing Industrial Productivity”
“Unsolved Problems of Experimental Statistics”, Tukey 1954
“NonCooperative Games”, Nash 1951
“The Economic Life of Industrial Equipment”, Preinreich 1940
“The Relationship Of Validity Coefficients To The Practical Effectiveness Of Tests In Selection: Discussion And Tables”
“"Student" As Statistician”, Pearson 1939
“Presidential Address to the First Indian Statistical Congress”, Fisher 1938
“Presidential address to the first Indian statistical congress”
“On the Theory of Apportionment”
“The Lanarkshire Milk Experiment”, Elderton 1933
“The Lanarkshire Milk Experiment [Student]”, Gosset 1931
“Pasteurised and Raw Milk”, Fisher & Bartlett 1931
“On Testing Varieties of Cereals”, Gosset 1923
“The Application Of The ‘Law Of Error’ To The Work Of The Brewery”, Gosset 1904
“The Application Of The ‘Law Of Error’ To The Work Of The Brewery”
“In Praise of Sparsity and Convexity”, Tibshirani 2023 (page 518)
“Why We Can't Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They're Unbiased)”
“Why We Can't Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They're Unbiased)”
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/doc/statistics/decision/20221003feepingcreatureproblem14bottomupvalues0to22974.txt

/doc/statistics/decision/20160820candyjapandecisiontreen9.csv

/doc/statistics/decision/20130624schoudevilgametheory.html

/doc/statistics/decision/2000gelmanfigure2meansquarederroroflinearvsquadraticexperiments.png

/doc/statistics/decision/1997mcclellandoptimalexperimentdesign.pdf

/doc/statistics/decision/1995budescufigure2forecastingphrasesasprobabilities.png

/doc/statistics/decision/1987fishburninterprofileconditionsimpossibility.pdf

/doc/statistics/decision/1986lehmanntestingstatisticalhypotheses.pdf

/doc/statistics/decision/1984tidmantheoperationsevaluationgroup.pdf

/doc/statistics/decision/1984thorpthemathematicsofgamblingch4.pdf

/doc/statistics/decision/1974balchessayseconomicbehavioruncertainty.pdf

/doc/statistics/decision/1972savagefoundationsofstatistics.pdf

/doc/statistics/decision/1960howarddynamicprogrammingmarkovprocesses.pdf

/doc/statistics/decision/1957bellmandynamicprogramming.pdf

/doc/statistics/decision/1950waldstatisticaldecisionfunctions.pdf

/doc/statistics/decision/1937fisherthedesignofexperiments.pdf

/doc/statistics/decision/1930leightonlanarkshiremilkreport.pdf

/doc/statistics/decision/gwerncoinflipactionvaluecurves.png

https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/brianchristianalgorithmstoliveby/

https://blog.research.google/2022/09/robustonlineallocationwithdual.html

https://hope.econ.duke.edu/sites/hope.econ.duke.edu/files/Banzhaf.pdf

https://maximumeffort.substack.com/p/thetyrannyofthewagonequation

https://www.cell.com/currentbiology/fulltext/S09609822(19)314319

https://www.constructionphysics.com/p/thescienceofproduction

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RQpNHSiWaXTvDxt6R/coherentdecisionsimplyconsistentutilities

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/no5jDTut5Byjqb4j5/sixandahalfintuitionsforkldivergence

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rEZqP7K4MG6waC2zf/optimizingcropplantingwithmixedintegerlinear

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sTwW3QLptTQKuyRXx/thefirstsamplegivesthemostinformation

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/canacellmakedecisions/

https://www.sumsar.net/blog/2015/01/probablepointsandcredibleintervalsparttwo/

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1962/06/aprofbeatsthegamblers/657997/
Link Bibliography

https://www.nber.org/papers/w31422
: “Combining Human Expertise With Artificial Intelligence: Experimental Evidence from Radiology”, Nikhil Agarwal, Alex Moehring, Pranav Rajpurkar, Tobias Salz 
1986hamming
: “You And Your Research”, Richard W. Hamming 
2022carragher.pdf
: “Simulated Automated Facial Recognition Systems As Decisionaids in Forensic Face Matching Tasks”, Daniel J. Carragher, Peter J. B. Hancock 
2022mulligan.pdf
: “Peltzman Revisited: Quantifying 21^{st}Century Opportunity Costs of FDA Regulation”, Casey B. Mulligan 
problem14
: “Problem 14 Dynamic Programming Solutions”, Gwern Branwen, FeepingCreature, nshepperd, Khoth 
https://openreview.net/forum?id=DY1pMrmDkm
: “Modeling Bounded Rationality in MultiAgent Simulations Using Rationally Inattentive Reinforcement Learning”, Anonymous 
2022glimcher.pdf
: “Efficiently Irrational: Deciphering the Riddle of Human Choice”, Paul W. Glimcher 
2021berman.pdf
: “False Discovery in A/B Testing”, Ron Berman, Christophe Van den Bulte 
2021brocas.pdf
: “Steps of Reasoning in Children and Adolescents”, Isabelle Brocas, Juan D. Carrillo 
localoptima
: “Local Optima & Greedy Choices”, Gwern 
https://www.ethanrosenthal.com/2020/08/25/optimalpeanutbutterandbananasandwiches/
: “Optimal Peanut Butter and Banana Sandwiches”, Ethan Rosenthal 
https://link.springer.com/article/10.3758/s13423020017534
: “Speedaccuracy Tradeoff in Plants”, 
muggingdp
: “Solving Pascal’s Mugging With Dynamic Programming”, Gwern 
researchcriticism
: “How Should We Critique Research?”, Gwern 
backstop
: “Evolution As Backstop for Reinforcement Learning”, Gwern 
clone
: “Dog Cloning For Special Forces: Breed All You Can Breed”, Gwern 
water
: “SelfBlinded Mineral Water Taste Test”, Gwern 
coinflip
: “The Kelly CoinFlipping Game: Exact Solutions”, Gwern Branwen, Arthur Breitman, nshepperd, FeepingCreature, Gurkenglas 
ad
: “Banner Ads Considered Harmful”, Gwern 
mediarl
: “The ExploreExploit Dilemma in Media Consumption”, Gwern 
mctsai
: “AI Risk Demos”, Gwern 
wifi
: “Internet WiFi Improvement”, Gwern 
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2016/10/performancepaynobel.html
: “The Performance Pay Nobel”, Alex Tabarrok 
embryoselection
: “Embryo Selection For Intelligence”, Gwern 
embryoediting
: “Embryo Editing for Intelligence”, Gwern 
melon
: “Bitter Melon for Blood Glucose”, Gwern 
maildelivery
: “When Should I Check The Mail?”, Gwern 
longevity
: “Life Extension CostBenefits”, Gwern 
2015deng.pdf
: “Objective Bayesian Two Sample Hypothesis Testing for Online Controlled Experiments”, Alex Deng 
statistic
: “Statistical Notes”, Gwern 
caffeine
: “Caffeine Wakeup Experiment”, Gwern 
2013kennedy.pdf
: “The Wait Calculation: The Broader Consequences of the Minimum Time from Now to Interstellar Destinations and Its StatisticalSignificance to the Space Economy”, Andrew Kennedy 
timing
: “Timing Technology: Lessons From The Media Lab”, Gwern 
abtest
: “A/B Testing Longform Readability on Gwern.net”, Gwern 
redshift
: “Redshift Sleep Experiment”, Gwern 
sunkcost
: “Are Sunk Costs Fallacies?”, Gwern 
consoleinsurance
: “Console Insurance Is A Ripoff”, Gwern 
2007hazan.pdf
: “Logarithmic Regret Algorithms for Online Convex Optimization”, Elad Hazan, Amit Agarwal, Satyen Kale 
https://www.freesfonline.net/content/Abraham1.pdf
: “The Cambist and Lord Iron: A Fairy Tale of Economics”, Daniel Abraham 
2006kennedy.pdf
: “Interstellar Travel: The Wait Calculation and the Incentive Trap of Progress”, Andrew Kennedy 
https://www.ic.unicamp.br/~celio/peer2peer/math/mitzenmacherpoweroftwo.pdf
: “The Power of Two Random Choices: A Survey of Techniques and Results”, Michael Mitzenmacher, Andrea W. Richa, Ramesh Sitaraman 
1996lubinski2.pdf
: “Seeing The Forest From The Trees: When Predicting The Behavior Or Status Of Groups, Correlate Means”, David Lubinski, Lloyd G. Humphreys 
1979box.pdf
: “Robustness in the Strategy of Scientific Model Building”, George E. P. Box