- See Also
-
Links
- “How Do Psychology Researchers Interpret the Results of Multiple Replication Studies?”, Et Al 2023
- “What Learning Algorithm Is In-context Learning? Investigations With Linear Models”, Et Al 2022
- “Are Most Published Criminological Research Findings Wrong? Taking Stock of Criminological Research Using a Bayesian Simulation Approach”, Et Al 2022
- “A Provably Efficient Model-Free Posterior Sampling Method for Episodic Reinforcement Learning”, Et Al 2022
- “Zeus: Understanding and Optimizing GPU Energy Consumption of DNN Training”, Et Al 2022
- “Language Model Cascades”, Et Al 2022
- “Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know”, Et Al 2022
- “Offline RL Policies Should Be Trained to Be Adaptive”, Et Al 2022
- “Greedy Bayesian Posterior Approximation With Deep Ensembles”, 2022
- “Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Words”, Et Al 2022
- “RL With KL Penalties Is Better Viewed As Bayesian Inference”, Et Al 2022
- “Fast and Accurate Bayesian Polygenic Risk Modeling With Variational Inference”, Et Al 2022
- “On-the-fly Strategy Adaptation for Ad-hoc Agent Coordination”, Et Al 2022
- “The InterModel Vigorish (IMV): A Flexible and Portable Approach for Quantifying Predictive Accuracy With Binary Outcomes”, Et Al 2022
- “PFNs: Transformers Can Do Bayesian Inference”, Et Al 2021
- “The Science of Visual Data Communication: What Works”, Et Al 2021
- “How to Learn and Represent Abstractions: An Investigation Using Symbolic Alchemy”, Et Al 2021
- “An Experimental Design Perspective on Model-Based Reinforcement Learning”, Et Al 2021
- “Prior Knowledge Elicitation: The Past, Present, and Future”, Et Al 2021
- “Improving GWAS Discovery and Genomic Prediction Accuracy in Biobank Data”, Et Al 2021
- “An Explanation of In-context Learning As Implicit Bayesian Inference”, Et Al 2021
- “Unifying Individual Differences in Personality, Predictability and Plasticity: A Practical Guide”, Et Al 2021
- “MegaLMM: Mega-scale Linear Mixed Models for Genomic Predictions With Thousands of Traits”, Et Al 2021
- “Why Generalization in RL Is Difficult: Epistemic POMDPs and Implicit Partial Observability”, Et Al 2021
- “The Bayesian Learning Rule”, 2021
- “No Need to Choose: Robust Bayesian Meta-Analysis With Competing Publication Bias Adjustment Methods”, Et Al 2021
- “Regression To The Mean Fallacies”, 2021
- “Maternal Judgments of Child Numeracy and Reading Ability Predict Gains in Academic Achievement and Interest”, Et Al 2021
- “Genetic Sensitivity Analysis: Adjusting for Genetic Confounding in Epidemiological Associations”, Et Al 2021
- “What Are Bayesian Neural Network Posteriors Really Like?”, Et Al 2021
- “Bayesian Optimization Is Superior to Random Search for Machine Learning Hyperparameter Tuning: Analysis of the Black-Box Optimization Challenge 2020”, Et Al 2021
- “Maximal Positive Controls: A Method for Estimating the Largest Plausible Effect Size”, 2021
- “Informational Herding, Optimal Experimentation, and Contrarianism”, Et Al 2021
- “Image Completion via Inference in Deep Generative Models”, Et Al 2021
- “The Statistical Properties of RCTs and a Proposal for Shrinkage”, Et Al 2020
- “Hot under the Collar: A Latent Measure of Interstate Hostility”, 2020
- “What Matters More for Entrepreneurship Success? A Meta-analysis Comparing General Mental Ability and Emotional Intelligence in Entrepreneurial Settings”, Et Al 2020
- “Bayesian Workflow”, Et Al 2020
- “From Probability to Consilience: How Explanatory Values Implement Bayesian Reasoning”, Wojtowicz & 2020
- “Meta-trained Agents Implement Bayes-optimal Agents”, Et Al 2020
- “Learning Not to Learn: Nature versus Nurture in Silico”, 2020
- “Searching for the Backfire Effect: Measurement and Design Considerations”, Swire- Et Al 2020
- “A Bayesian Approach to the Simulation Argument”, 2020
- “Is SGD a Bayesian Sampler? Well, Almost”, Et Al 2020
- “Laplace’s Theories of Cognitive Illusions, Heuristics and Biases”, 2020
- “Exploring Bayesian Optimization: Breaking Bayesian Optimization into Small, Sizeable Chunks”, 2020
- “Bayesian REX: Safe Imitation Learning via Fast Bayesian Reward Inference from Preferences”, Et Al 2020
- “Bayesian Deep Learning and a Probabilistic Perspective of Generalization”, 2020
- “The Social and Genetic Inheritance of Educational Attainment: Genes, Parental Education, and Educational Expansion”, 2020
- “Why the Increasing Use of Complex Causal Models Is a Problem: On the Danger Sophisticated Theoretical Narratives Pose to Truth”, 2020
- “The Most ‘Abandoned’ Books on GoodReads”, 2019
- “Improved Polygenic Prediction by Bayesian Multiple Regression on Summary Statistics”, Lloyd- Et Al 2019
- “The Propensity for Aggressive Behavior and Lifetime Incarceration Risk: A Test for Gene-environment Interaction (G × E) Using Whole-genome Data”, Et Al 2019
- “Approximate Inference in Discrete Distributions With Monte Carlo Tree Search and Value Functions”, Et Al 2019
- “Bayesian Parameter Estimation Using Conditional Variational Autoencoders for Gravitational-wave Astronomy”, Et Al 2019
- “New Paradigms in the Psychology of Reasoning”, 2019
- “Estimating Distributional Models With Brms: Additive Distributional Models”, 2019
- “Dirichlet-Hawkes Processes With Applications to Clustering Continuous-Time Document Streams”, Et Al 2019
- “Allocation to Groups: Examples of Lord’s Paradox”, 2019
- “Evolutionary Implementation of Bayesian Computations”, Et Al 2019
- “How Should We Critique Research?”, 2019
- “Reinforcement Learning, Fast and Slow”, Et Al 2019
- “Meta Reinforcement Learning As Task Inference”, Et Al 2019
- “Structural Equation Models As Computation Graphs”, 2019
- “Meta-learning of Sequential Strategies”, Et Al 2019
- “Meta-learners’ Learning Dynamics Are unlike Learners’”, 2019
- “Fermi Calculation Examples”, 2019
- “Frank P. Ramsey Bibliography”, 2019
- “Is the FDA Too Conservative or Too Aggressive?: A Bayesian Decision Analysis of Clinical Trial Design”, Et Al 2019
- “Bayesian Statistics in Sociology: Past, Present, and Future”, 2019
- “Approximate Bayesian Computation [review]”, 2019
- “Accounting Theory As a Bayesian Discipline”, 2018
- “The Bayesian Superorganism III: Externalized Memories Facilitate Distributed Sampling”, Et Al 2018
- “Bayesian Layers: A Module for Neural Network Uncertainty”, Et Al 2018
- “Evolution As Backstop for Reinforcement Learning”, 2018
- “The Bayesian Superorganism I: Collective Probability Estimation”, Et Al 2018
- “Bayesian Action Decoder for Deep Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning”, Et Al 2018
- “Accurate Uncertainties for Deep Learning Using Calibrated Regression”, Et Al 2018
- “The Alignment Problem for Bayesian History-Based Reinforcement Learners”, 2018
- “Mining Gold from Implicit Models to Improve Likelihood-free Inference”, Et Al 2018
- “Deep Learning Generalizes Because the Parameter-function Map Is Biased towards Simple Functions”, Valle- Et Al 2018
- “Posterior Sampling for Large Scale Reinforcement Learning”, Et Al 2017
- “Implicit Causal Models for Genome-wide Association Studies”, 2017
- “Analogical-based Bayesian Optimization”, Et Al 2017
- “DropoutDAgger: A Bayesian Approach to Safe Imitation Learning”, Et Al 2017
- “A Rational Choice Framework for Collective Behavior”, 2017
- “Better Decision Making in Drug Development Through Adoption of Formal Prior Elicitation”, Et Al 2017
- “The Prior Can Generally Only Be Understood in the Context of the Likelihood”, Et Al 2017
- “Statistical Correction of the Winner’s Curse Explains Replication Variability in Quantitative Trait Genome-wide Association Studies”, Palmer & 2017
- “A Tutorial on Thompson Sampling”, Et Al 2017
- “Structured Bayesian Pruning via Log-Normal Multiplicative Noise”, Et Al 2017
- “Black-Box Data-efficient Policy Search for Robotics”, Et Al 2017
- “ZMA Sleep Experiment”, 2017
- “Self-Blinded Mineral Water Taste Test”, 2017
- “The Kelly Coin-Flipping Game: Exact Solutions”, Et Al 2017
- “A Conceptual Introduction to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo”, 2017
- “Banner Ads Considered Harmful”, 2017
- “The Explore-Exploit Dilemma in Media Consumption”, 2016
- “Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation Using Deep Ensembles”, Et Al 2016
- “Bayesian Reinforcement Learning: A Survey”, Et Al 2016
- “Human Collective Intelligence As Distributed Bayesian Inference”, Et Al 2016
- “Universal Darwinism As a Process of Bayesian Inference”, 2016
- “Candy Japan’s New Box A/B Test”, 2016
- “Calculating The Gaussian Expected Maximum”, 2016
- “Embryo Editing for Intelligence”, 2016
- “Probabilistic Integration: A Role in Statistical Computation?”, Et Al 2015
- “World Catnip Surveys”, 2015
- “Catnip Immunity and Alternatives”, 2015
- “Bitter Melon for Blood Glucose”, 2015
- “Resorting Media Ratings”, 2015
- “Practical Probabilistic Programming With Monads”, Ścibior Et Al 2015
- “When Should I Check The Mail?”, 2015
- “Bayesian Dark Knowledge”, Et Al 2015
- “Dropout As a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning”, 2015
- “Life Extension Cost-Benefits”, 2015
- “Gaussian Processes for Data-Efficient Learning in Robotics and Control”, Et Al 2015
- “LDpred: Modeling Linkage Disequilibrium Increases Accuracy of Polygenic Risk Scores”, Et Al 2015
- “Simultaneous Discovery, Estimation and Prediction Analysis of Complex Traits Using a Bayesian Mixture Model”, Et Al 2014
- “Predictive Distributions for Between-study Heterogeneity and Simple Methods for Their Application in Bayesian Meta-analysis”, Et Al 2014
- “Thompson Sampling With the Online Bootstrap”, 2014
- “Everything Is Correlated”, 2014
- “Statistical Notes”, 2014
- “How Often Does Correlation=Causality?”, 2014
- “Why Correlation Usually ≠ Causation”, 2014
- “Freeze-Thaw Bayesian Optimization”, Et Al 2014
- “Search for the Wreckage of Air France Flight AF 447”, Et Al 2014
- “Bacopa Quasi-Experiment”, 2014
- “Bayesian Model Selection: The Steepest Mountain to Climb”, Et Al 2014
- “Bayesian Inferences about the Self (and Others): a Review”, Et Al 2014
- “Auto-Encoding Variational Bayes”, 2013
- “Machine Teaching for Bayesian Learners in the Exponential Family”, 2013
- “(More) Efficient Reinforcement Learning via Posterior Sampling”, Et Al 2013
- “Magnesium Self-Experiments”, 2013
- “Caffeine Wakeup Experiment”, 2013
- “Bayesian Estimation Supersedes The T Test”, 2013
- “Nonparametric Bayes”
- “Potassium Sleep Experiments”, 2012
- “2012 Election Predictions”, 2012
- “Deep Gaussian Processes”, 2012
- “Biased Information As Anti-information”, 2012
- “A Widely Applicable Bayesian Information Criterion”, 2012
- “The Ups and Downs of the Hope Function In a Fruitless Search”, Et Al 2012
- “Practical Bayesian Optimization of Machine Learning Algorithms”, Et Al 2012
- “One Man’s Modus Ponens”, 2012
- “Learning Is Planning: near Bayes-optimal Reinforcement Learning via Monte-Carlo Tree Search”, 2012
- “Learning Performance of Prediction Markets With Kelly Bettors”, Et Al 2012
- “Vitamin D Sleep Experiments”, 2012
- “Bayesian Active Learning for Classification and Preference Learning”, Et Al 2011
- “Estimating the Evidence—a Review”, 2011
- “Charity Is Not about Helping”, 2011
- “The Sword of Achilles”, 2011
- “PILCO: A Model-Based and Data-Efficient Approach to Policy Search”, 2011
- “Death Note: L, Anonymity & Eluding Entropy”, 2011
- “Experiments With the Site Frequency Spectrum”
- “Lack of Confidence in Approximate Bayesian Computation Model Choice”, Robert & Al 2011
- “Zeo Sleep Self-experiments”, 2010
- “Bayesian Data Analysis”, 2010
- “Darwin, Galton and the Statistical Enlightenment”, 2010b
- “Nootropics”, 2010
- “Predicting the Next Big Thing: Success As a Signal of Poor Judgment”, 2010
- “Case Studies in Bayesian Computation Using INLA”, 2010
- “Who Wrote The ‘Death Note’ Script?”, 2009
- “When Superstars Flop: Public Status and Choking Under Pressure in International Soccer Penalty Shootouts”, 2009
- “Prediction Markets”, 2009
- “A New Challenge to 98% Confidence”
- “Models for Potentially Biased Evidence in Meta-analysis Using Empirically Based Priors”, Et Al 2008
- “Optimal Approximation of Signal Priors”, 2008
- “Verbal Probability Expressions In National Intelligence Estimates: A Comprehensive Analysis Of Trends From The Fifties Through Post-9/11”, 2008
- “The Allure of Equality: Uniformity in Probabilistic and Statistical Judgment”, 2008
- “On Universal Prediction and Bayesian Confirmation”, 2007
- “Introduction History Of Drosophila Subobscura In the New World: a Microsatellite-based Survey Using ABC Methods”, Et Al 2007
- “Experiments on Partisanship and Public Opinion: Party Cues, False Beliefs, and Bayesian Updating”, 2007
- “A Free Energy Principle for the Brain”, Et Al 2006
- “The Optimizer’s Curse: Skepticism and Postdecision Surprise in Decision Analysis”, 2006
- “Three Statistical Paradoxes in the Interpretation of Group Differences: Illustrated With Medical School Admission and Licensing Data”, 2006
- “Estimation of Non-Normalized Statistical Models by Score Matching”, 2005
- “The Bayesian Brain: the Role of Uncertainty in Neural Coding and Computation”, 2004
- “Methods of Meta-Analysis: Correcting Error and Bias in Research Findings”, 2004
- “Bayesian Informal Logic and Fallacy”, 2004
- “Those Confounded Vitamins: What Can We Learn from the Differences between Observational versus Randomised Trial Evidence?”
- “Two Statistical Paradoxes in the Interpretation of Group Differences: Illustrated With Medical School Admission and Licensing Data”, 2004
- “Bayesian Computation: a Statistical Revolution”, 2003
- “Bayesian Adaptive Exploration”, 2003
- “Constructing a Logic of Plausible Inference: A Guide to Cox’s Theorem”, 2003
- “Simplifying Likelihood Ratios”, 2002
- “Approximate Bayesian Computation in Population Genetics”, Et Al 2002
- “A Bayesian Framework for Reinforcement Learning”, 2000
- “Kelley’s Paradox”, 2000
- “A Conversation With I. Richard Savage (with the Assistance of Bruce Spencer)”, 1999
- “On the Optimality of the Simple Bayesian Classifier under Zero-One Loss”, 1997
- “Statistical Issues in the Analysis of Data Gathered in the New Designs”, 1996
- “Is There Sufficient Historical Evidence to Establish the Resurrection of Jesus?”, 1995
- “The Relevance of Group Membership for Personnel Selection: A Demonstration Using Bayes’ Theorem”, 1994
- “Subjective Probability”, 1994
- “The Ups and Downs of the Hope Function In a Fruitless Search”, Falk & Al 1994
- “The Influence of Prior Beliefs on Scientific Judgments of Evidence Quality”, 1993
- “Smoking As ‘Independent’ Risk Factor for Suicide: Illustration of an Artifact from Observational Epidemiology?”, Et Al 1992
- “Bias in Relative Odds Estimation owing to Imprecise Measurement of Correlated Exposures”, 1992
- “A Closer Look at the Probabilities of the Notorious 3 Prisoners”
- “How Independent Are ‘Independent’ Effects? Relative Risk Estimation When Correlated Exposures Are Measured Imprecisely”, 1991
- “Bayes-Hermite Quadrature”, 1991
- “The 1988 Neyman Memorial Lecture: A Galtonian Perspective on Shrinkage Estimators”, 1990
- “Informal Conceptions of Probability”
- “Intuitive Reasoning about Probability: Theoretical and Experimental Analyses of The ‘Problem of 3 Prisoners’”
- “The Despicable Doctor Fischer’s (Bayesian) Bomb Party”
- “Search Success and Expectations With a Computer Interface”
- “The Double Exponential Distribution: Using Calculus to Find a Maximum Likelihood Estimator”, 1984
- “This Week’s Citation Classic: Nearest Neighbor Pattern Classification”, 1982
- “Stein’s Paradox in Statistics: The Best Guess about the Future Is Usually Obtained by Computing the Average of past Events. Stein’s Paradox Defines Circumstances in Which There Are Estimators Better Than the Arithmetic Average”
- “Interpreting Regression toward the Mean in Developmental Research”, 1973
- “Nuisance Variables and the Ex Post Facto Design”, 1970
- “Strategies of Search”
- “Nearest Neighbor Pattern Classification”, 1967
- “Control of Spurious Association and the Reliability of the Controlled Variable”, 1965
- “Inference in an Authorship Problem: A Comparative Study of Discrimination Methods Applied to the Authorship of the Disputed Federalist Papers”, 1963
- “The Argentine Writer and Tradition”, 1951
- “Probability and the Weighing of Evidence”, 1950 (page 96)
- “Regression Fallacies in the Matched Groups Experiment”, 1942
- “Evaluating the Effect of Inadequately Measured Variables in Partial Correlation Analysis”, 1936
- “Interpretation of Educational Measurements”, 1927
- “Mr Keynes on Probability [review of J. M. Keynes, A Treatise on Probability 1921]”, 1922
- “Philosophical Essay on Probabilities, Chapter 11: Concerning the Probabilities of Testimonies”, 1814
- “Zend Framework: 36.6. Document Info and Metadata”
- “Q: Population Statistics by Time Zone”
- “Symmetry and Its Discontents”
- “Chapter 18: the AP Distribution and the Rule of Succession”
- “Placebo Effects Are Weak: Regression to the Mean Is the Main Reason Ineffective Treatments Appear to Work”
- “The Impact of Residual and Unmeasured Confounding in Epidemiologic Studies: A Simulation Study”
- “Variants of Uncertainty”
- “Brms: an R Package for Bayesian Generalized Multivariate Non-linear Multilevel Models Using Stan”, 2023
- “Approximate Bayesian Computation”, Et Al 2023
- “Rumor Alert: Death Note Movie Script Leaked?”
- “Why We Can’t Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They’re Unbiased)”
- Wikipedia
- Miscellaneous
- Link Bibliography
See Also
Links
“How Do Psychology Researchers Interpret the Results of Multiple Replication Studies?”, Et Al 2023
“How do psychology researchers interpret the results of multiple replication studies?”, 2023-01-12 (; similar)
“What Learning Algorithm Is In-context Learning? Investigations With Linear Models”, Et Al 2022
“What learning algorithm is in-context learning? Investigations with linear models”, 2022-11-28 (; similar)
“Are Most Published Criminological Research Findings Wrong? Taking Stock of Criminological Research Using a Bayesian Simulation Approach”, Et Al 2022
“Are Most Published Criminological Research Findings Wrong? Taking Stock of Criminological Research using a Bayesian Simulation Approach”, 2022-09-17 (; similar; bibliography)
“A Provably Efficient Model-Free Posterior Sampling Method for Episodic Reinforcement Learning”, Et Al 2022
“A Provably Efficient Model-Free Posterior Sampling Method for Episodic Reinforcement Learning”, 2022-08-23 (; similar)
“Zeus: Understanding and Optimizing GPU Energy Consumption of DNN Training”, Et Al 2022
“Zeus: Understanding and Optimizing GPU Energy Consumption of DNN Training”, 2022-08-12 (; similar)
“Language Model Cascades”, Et Al 2022
“Language Model Cascades”, 2022-07-21 (; similar)
“Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know”, Et Al 2022
“Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know”, 2022-07-11 (; similar; bibliography)
“Offline RL Policies Should Be Trained to Be Adaptive”, Et Al 2022
“Offline RL Policies Should be Trained to be Adaptive”, 2022-07-05 (; similar)
“Greedy Bayesian Posterior Approximation With Deep Ensembles”, 2022
“Greedy Bayesian Posterior Approximation with Deep Ensembles”, 2022-06-03 (; similar)
“Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Words”, Et Al 2022
“Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Words”, 2022-05-28 (; backlinks; similar)
“RL With KL Penalties Is Better Viewed As Bayesian Inference”, Et Al 2022
“RL with KL penalties is better viewed as Bayesian inference”, 2022-05-23 (; similar)
“Fast and Accurate Bayesian Polygenic Risk Modeling With Variational Inference”, Et Al 2022
“Fast and Accurate Bayesian Polygenic Risk Modeling with Variational Inference”, 2022-05-11 (; similar)
“On-the-fly Strategy Adaptation for Ad-hoc Agent Coordination”, Et Al 2022
“On-the-fly Strategy Adaptation for ad-hoc Agent Coordination”, 2022-03-08 (; similar)
“The InterModel Vigorish (IMV): A Flexible and Portable Approach for Quantifying Predictive Accuracy With Binary Outcomes”, Et Al 2022
“The InterModel Vigorish (IMV): A flexible and portable approach for quantifying predictive accuracy with binary outcomes”, 2022-01-12 (; similar)
“PFNs: Transformers Can Do Bayesian Inference”, Et Al 2021
“PFNs: Transformers Can Do Bayesian Inference”, 2021-12-20 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“The Science of Visual Data Communication: What Works”, Et Al 2021
“The Science of Visual Data Communication: What Works”, 2021-12-15 (; backlinks; similar)
“How to Learn and Represent Abstractions: An Investigation Using Symbolic Alchemy”, Et Al 2021
“How to Learn and Represent Abstractions: An Investigation using Symbolic Alchemy”, 2021-12-14 (; similar)
“An Experimental Design Perspective on Model-Based Reinforcement Learning”, Et Al 2021
“An Experimental Design Perspective on Model-Based Reinforcement Learning”, 2021-12-09 (; similar)
“Prior Knowledge Elicitation: The Past, Present, and Future”, Et Al 2021
“Prior knowledge elicitation: The past, present, and future”, 2021-12-01 (; similar)
“Improving GWAS Discovery and Genomic Prediction Accuracy in Biobank Data”, Et Al 2021
“Improving GWAS discovery and genomic prediction accuracy in Biobank data”, 2021-11-08 (; similar)
“An Explanation of In-context Learning As Implicit Bayesian Inference”, Et Al 2021
“An Explanation of In-context Learning as Implicit Bayesian Inference”, 2021-11-03 (; backlinks; similar)
“Unifying Individual Differences in Personality, Predictability and Plasticity: A Practical Guide”, Et Al 2021
“Unifying individual differences in personality, predictability and plasticity: A practical guide”, 2021-11-01 (; similar; bibliography)
“MegaLMM: Mega-scale Linear Mixed Models for Genomic Predictions With Thousands of Traits”, Et Al 2021
“MegaLMM: Mega-scale linear mixed models for genomic predictions with thousands of traits”, 2021-07-23 (; backlinks; similar)
“Why Generalization in RL Is Difficult: Epistemic POMDPs and Implicit Partial Observability”, Et Al 2021
“Why Generalization in RL is Difficult: Epistemic POMDPs and Implicit Partial Observability”, 2021-07-13 (; similar)
“The Bayesian Learning Rule”, 2021
“The Bayesian Learning Rule”, 2021-07-09 (similar)
“No Need to Choose: Robust Bayesian Meta-Analysis With Competing Publication Bias Adjustment Methods”, Et Al 2021
“No Need to Choose: Robust Bayesian Meta-Analysis with Competing Publication Bias Adjustment Methods”, 2021-06-17 (; similar; bibliography)
“Regression To The Mean Fallacies”, 2021
“Regression To The Mean Fallacies”, 2021-05-20 (; backlinks; bibliography)
“Maternal Judgments of Child Numeracy and Reading Ability Predict Gains in Academic Achievement and Interest”, Et Al 2021
“Maternal Judgments of Child Numeracy and Reading Ability Predict Gains in Academic Achievement and Interest”, 2021-05-15 (; backlinks; similar)
“Genetic Sensitivity Analysis: Adjusting for Genetic Confounding in Epidemiological Associations”, Et Al 2021
“Genetic sensitivity analysis: Adjusting for genetic confounding in epidemiological associations”, 2021-05-07 (; backlinks; similar)
“What Are Bayesian Neural Network Posteriors Really Like?”, Et Al 2021
“What Are Bayesian Neural Network Posteriors Really Like?”, 2021-04-29 (; similar)
“Bayesian Optimization Is Superior to Random Search for Machine Learning Hyperparameter Tuning: Analysis of the Black-Box Optimization Challenge 2020”, Et Al 2021
“Bayesian Optimization is Superior to Random Search for Machine Learning Hyperparameter Tuning: Analysis of the Black-Box Optimization Challenge 2020”, 2021-04-20 (; similar)
“Maximal Positive Controls: A Method for Estimating the Largest Plausible Effect Size”, 2021
“Maximal positive controls: A method for estimating the largest plausible effect size”, 2021-03-01 (; similar)
“Informational Herding, Optimal Experimentation, and Contrarianism”, Et Al 2021
“Informational Herding, Optimal Experimentation, and Contrarianism”, 2021-02-25 (; similar)
“Image Completion via Inference in Deep Generative Models”, Et Al 2021
“Image Completion via Inference in Deep Generative Models”, 2021-02-24 (; similar)
“The Statistical Properties of RCTs and a Proposal for Shrinkage”, Et Al 2020
“The statistical properties of RCTs and a proposal for shrinkage”, 2020-11-30 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Hot under the Collar: A Latent Measure of Interstate Hostility”, 2020
“Hot under the collar: A latent measure of interstate hostility”, 2020-11-17 (; similar)
“What Matters More for Entrepreneurship Success? A Meta-analysis Comparing General Mental Ability and Emotional Intelligence in Entrepreneurial Settings”, Et Al 2020
“What matters more for entrepreneurship success? A meta-analysis comparing general mental ability and emotional intelligence in entrepreneurial settings”, 2020-11-03 (backlinks; similar)
“Bayesian Workflow”, Et Al 2020
“Bayesian Workflow”, 2020-11-02 (similar)
“From Probability to Consilience: How Explanatory Values Implement Bayesian Reasoning”, Wojtowicz & 2020
“From Probability to Consilience: How Explanatory Values Implement Bayesian Reasoning”, 2020-10-23 (similar)
“Meta-trained Agents Implement Bayes-optimal Agents”, Et Al 2020
“Meta-trained agents implement Bayes-optimal agents”, 2020-10-21 (; similar)
“Learning Not to Learn: Nature versus Nurture in Silico”, 2020
“Learning not to learn: Nature versus nurture in silico”, 2020-10-09 (; backlinks; similar)
“Searching for the Backfire Effect: Measurement and Design Considerations”, Swire- Et Al 2020
“Searching for the Backfire Effect: Measurement and Design Considerations”, 2020-09 (backlinks; similar)
“A Bayesian Approach to the Simulation Argument”, 2020
“A Bayesian Approach to the Simulation Argument”, 2020-08-03 (; backlinks; similar)
“Is SGD a Bayesian Sampler? Well, Almost”, Et Al 2020
“Is SGD a Bayesian sampler? Well, almost”, 2020-06-26 (; similar)
“Laplace’s Theories of Cognitive Illusions, Heuristics and Biases”, 2020
“Laplace’s Theories of Cognitive Illusions, Heuristics and Biases”, 2020-06-03 (; similar)
“Exploring Bayesian Optimization: Breaking Bayesian Optimization into Small, Sizeable Chunks”, 2020
“Exploring Bayesian Optimization: Breaking Bayesian Optimization into small, sizeable chunks”, 2020-05-05 (; similar)
“Bayesian REX: Safe Imitation Learning via Fast Bayesian Reward Inference from Preferences”, Et Al 2020
“Bayesian REX: Safe Imitation Learning via Fast Bayesian Reward Inference from Preferences”, 2020-02-21 (; backlinks; similar)
“Bayesian Deep Learning and a Probabilistic Perspective of Generalization”, 2020
“Bayesian Deep Learning and a Probabilistic Perspective of Generalization”, 2020-02-20 (; backlinks; similar)
“The Social and Genetic Inheritance of Educational Attainment: Genes, Parental Education, and Educational Expansion”, 2020
“Why the Increasing Use of Complex Causal Models Is a Problem: On the Danger Sophisticated Theoretical Narratives Pose to Truth”, 2020
“Why the Increasing Use of Complex Causal Models Is a Problem: On the Danger Sophisticated Theoretical Narratives Pose to Truth”, 2020 (; similar)
“The Most ‘Abandoned’ Books on GoodReads”, 2019
“The Most ‘Abandoned’ Books on GoodReads”, 2019-12-09 (; similar; bibliography)
“Improved Polygenic Prediction by Bayesian Multiple Regression on Summary Statistics”, Lloyd- Et Al 2019
“Improved polygenic prediction by Bayesian multiple regression on summary statistics”, 2019-11-08 (; backlinks; similar)
“The Propensity for Aggressive Behavior and Lifetime Incarceration Risk: A Test for Gene-environment Interaction (G × E) Using Whole-genome Data”, Et Al 2019
“The propensity for aggressive behavior and lifetime incarceration risk: A test for gene-environment interaction (G × E) using whole-genome data”, 2019-11-01 (; backlinks; similar)
“Approximate Inference in Discrete Distributions With Monte Carlo Tree Search and Value Functions”, Et Al 2019
“Approximate Inference in Discrete Distributions with Monte Carlo Tree Search and Value Functions”, 2019-10-15 (; backlinks; similar)
“Bayesian Parameter Estimation Using Conditional Variational Autoencoders for Gravitational-wave Astronomy”, Et Al 2019
“Bayesian parameter estimation using conditional variational autoencoders for gravitational-wave astronomy”, 2019-09-13 (; similar)
“New Paradigms in the Psychology of Reasoning”, 2019
“New Paradigms in the Psychology of Reasoning”, 2019-09-12 (similar)
“Estimating Distributional Models With Brms: Additive Distributional Models”, 2019
“Estimating Distributional Models with brms: Additive Distributional Models”, 2019-08-29 (; similar)
“Dirichlet-Hawkes Processes With Applications to Clustering Continuous-Time Document Streams”, Et Al 2019
“Dirichlet-Hawkes Processes with Applications to Clustering Continuous-Time Document Streams”, 2019-07-16 (backlinks; similar)
“Allocation to Groups: Examples of Lord’s Paradox”, 2019
“Allocation to groups: Examples of Lord's paradox”, 2019-07-12 (backlinks; similar)
“Evolutionary Implementation of Bayesian Computations”, Et Al 2019
“Evolutionary implementation of Bayesian computations”, 2019-06-28 (; backlinks; similar)
“How Should We Critique Research?”, 2019
“How Should We Critique Research?”, 2019-05-19 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Reinforcement Learning, Fast and Slow”, Et Al 2019
“Reinforcement Learning, Fast and Slow”, 2019-05-16 (; similar)
“Meta Reinforcement Learning As Task Inference”, Et Al 2019
“Meta reinforcement learning as task inference”, 2019-05-15 (; similar)
“Structural Equation Models As Computation Graphs”, 2019
“Structural Equation Models as Computation Graphs”, 2019-05-11 (; similar)
“Meta-learning of Sequential Strategies”, Et Al 2019
“Meta-learning of Sequential Strategies”, 2019-05-08 (; similar)
“Meta-learners’ Learning Dynamics Are unlike Learners’”, 2019
“Meta-learners’ learning dynamics are unlike learners’”, 2019-05-03 (; similar; bibliography)
“Fermi Calculation Examples”, 2019
“Fermi Calculation Examples”, 2019-03-29 (backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Frank P. Ramsey Bibliography”, 2019
“Frank P. Ramsey bibliography”, 2019-01-24 ()
“Is the FDA Too Conservative or Too Aggressive?: A Bayesian Decision Analysis of Clinical Trial Design”, Et Al 2019
“Is the FDA too conservative or too aggressive?: A Bayesian decision analysis of clinical trial design”, 2019-01-04 (; similar)
“Bayesian Statistics in Sociology: Past, Present, and Future”, 2019
“Bayesian Statistics in Sociology: Past, Present, and Future”, 2019 (similar)
“Approximate Bayesian Computation [review]”, 2019
“Accounting Theory As a Bayesian Discipline”, 2018
“Accounting Theory as a Bayesian Discipline”, 2018-12-28 (; similar)
“The Bayesian Superorganism III: Externalized Memories Facilitate Distributed Sampling”, Et Al 2018
“The Bayesian Superorganism III: externalized memories facilitate distributed sampling”, 2018-12-21 (; similar)
“Bayesian Layers: A Module for Neural Network Uncertainty”, Et Al 2018
“Bayesian Layers: A Module for Neural Network Uncertainty”, 2018-12-10 (; similar)
“Evolution As Backstop for Reinforcement Learning”, 2018
“Evolution as Backstop for Reinforcement Learning”, 2018-12-06 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“The Bayesian Superorganism I: Collective Probability Estimation”, Et Al 2018
“The Bayesian Superorganism I: collective probability estimation”, 2018-11-12 (; similar)
“Bayesian Action Decoder for Deep Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning”, Et Al 2018
“Bayesian Action Decoder for Deep Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning”, 2018-11-04 (; similar)
“Accurate Uncertainties for Deep Learning Using Calibrated Regression”, Et Al 2018
“Accurate Uncertainties for Deep Learning Using Calibrated Regression”, 2018-07-01 (; similar)
“The Alignment Problem for Bayesian History-Based Reinforcement Learners”, 2018
“The Alignment Problem for Bayesian History-Based Reinforcement Learners”, 2018-06-22 (; similar; bibliography)
“Mining Gold from Implicit Models to Improve Likelihood-free Inference”, Et Al 2018
“Mining gold from implicit models to improve likelihood-free inference”, 2018-05-30 (; backlinks; similar)
“Deep Learning Generalizes Because the Parameter-function Map Is Biased towards Simple Functions”, Valle- Et Al 2018
“Deep learning generalizes because the parameter-function map is biased towards simple functions”, 2018-05-22 (; similar)
“Posterior Sampling for Large Scale Reinforcement Learning”, Et Al 2017
“Posterior Sampling for Large Scale Reinforcement Learning”, 2017-11-21 (; backlinks; similar)
“Implicit Causal Models for Genome-wide Association Studies”, 2017
“Implicit Causal Models for Genome-wide Association Studies”, 2017-10-30 (; similar)
“Analogical-based Bayesian Optimization”, Et Al 2017
“Analogical-based Bayesian Optimization”, 2017-09-19 (; backlinks; similar)
“DropoutDAgger: A Bayesian Approach to Safe Imitation Learning”, Et Al 2017
“DropoutDAgger: A Bayesian Approach to Safe Imitation Learning”, 2017-09-18 (; similar)
“A Rational Choice Framework for Collective Behavior”, 2017
“A Rational Choice Framework for Collective Behavior”, 2017-09 (; backlinks; similar)
“Better Decision Making in Drug Development Through Adoption of Formal Prior Elicitation”, Et Al 2017
“Better Decision Making in Drug Development Through Adoption of Formal Prior Elicitation”, 2017-08-31 (; similar)
“The Prior Can Generally Only Be Understood in the Context of the Likelihood”, Et Al 2017
“The prior can generally only be understood in the context of the likelihood”, 2017-08-24 (backlinks; similar)
“Statistical Correction of the Winner’s Curse Explains Replication Variability in Quantitative Trait Genome-wide Association Studies”, Palmer & 2017
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“A Tutorial on Thompson Sampling”, Et Al 2017
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“Black-Box Data-efficient Policy Search for Robotics”, Et Al 2017
“Black-Box Data-efficient Policy Search for Robotics”, 2017-03-21 (; similar)
“ZMA Sleep Experiment”, 2017
“ZMA Sleep Experiment”, 2017-03-13 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Self-Blinded Mineral Water Taste Test”, 2017
“Self-Blinded Mineral Water Taste Test”, 2017-02-15 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“The Kelly Coin-Flipping Game: Exact Solutions”, Et Al 2017
“The Kelly Coin-Flipping Game: Exact Solutions”, 2017-01-19 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“A Conceptual Introduction to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo”, 2017
“A Conceptual Introduction to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo”, 2017-01-10 (similar)
“Banner Ads Considered Harmful”, 2017
“Banner Ads Considered Harmful”, 2017-01-08 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“The Explore-Exploit Dilemma in Media Consumption”, 2016
“The Explore-Exploit Dilemma in Media Consumption”, 2016-12-24 (; similar; bibliography)
“Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation Using Deep Ensembles”, Et Al 2016
“Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles”, 2016-12-05 (; backlinks; similar)
“Bayesian Reinforcement Learning: A Survey”, Et Al 2016
“Bayesian Reinforcement Learning: A Survey”, 2016-09-14 (; backlinks; similar)
“Human Collective Intelligence As Distributed Bayesian Inference”, Et Al 2016
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“Universal Darwinism As a Process of Bayesian Inference”, 2016
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“Candy Japan’s New Box A/B Test”, 2016
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“Calculating The Gaussian Expected Maximum”, 2016
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“Embryo Editing for Intelligence”, 2016
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“Probabilistic Integration: A Role in Statistical Computation?”, Et Al 2015
“Probabilistic Integration: A Role in Statistical Computation?”, 2015-12-03 (; backlinks; similar)
“World Catnip Surveys”, 2015
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“Catnip Immunity and Alternatives”, 2015
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“Bitter Melon for Blood Glucose”, 2015
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“Resorting Media Ratings”, 2015
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“Practical Probabilistic Programming With Monads”, Ścibior Et Al 2015
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“When Should I Check The Mail?”, 2015
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“Bayesian Dark Knowledge”, Et Al 2015
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“Dropout As a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning”, 2015
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“Life Extension Cost-Benefits”, 2015
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“Gaussian Processes for Data-Efficient Learning in Robotics and Control”, Et Al 2015
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“Thompson Sampling With the Online Bootstrap”, 2014
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“Everything Is Correlated”, 2014
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“Statistical Notes”, 2014
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“How Often Does Correlation=Causality?”, 2014
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“Freeze-Thaw Bayesian Optimization”, Et Al 2014
“Freeze-Thaw Bayesian Optimization”, 2014-06-16 (; backlinks; similar)
“Search for the Wreckage of Air France Flight AF 447”, Et Al 2014
“Search for the Wreckage of Air France Flight AF 447”, 2014-05-19 (; similar)
“Bacopa Quasi-Experiment”, 2014
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“Bayesian Model Selection: The Steepest Mountain to Climb”, Et Al 2014
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“Auto-Encoding Variational Bayes”, 2013
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“Machine Teaching for Bayesian Learners in the Exponential Family”, 2013
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“(More) Efficient Reinforcement Learning via Posterior Sampling”, Et Al 2013
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“Magnesium Self-Experiments”, 2013
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“Caffeine Wakeup Experiment”, 2013
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“Bayesian Estimation Supersedes The T Test”, 2013
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“Nonparametric Bayes”
“Potassium Sleep Experiments”, 2012
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“2012 Election Predictions”, 2012
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“Deep Gaussian Processes”, 2012
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“Biased Information As Anti-information”, 2012
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“A Widely Applicable Bayesian Information Criterion”, 2012
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“The Ups and Downs of the Hope Function In a Fruitless Search”, Et Al 2012
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“Practical Bayesian Optimization of Machine Learning Algorithms”, Et Al 2012
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“One Man’s Modus Ponens”, 2012
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“Learning Is Planning: near Bayes-optimal Reinforcement Learning via Monte-Carlo Tree Search”, 2012
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“Learning Performance of Prediction Markets With Kelly Bettors”, Et Al 2012
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“Vitamin D Sleep Experiments”, 2012
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“Bayesian Active Learning for Classification and Preference Learning”, Et Al 2011
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“Estimating the Evidence—a Review”, 2011
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“Charity Is Not about Helping”, 2011
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“The Sword of Achilles”, 2011
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“PILCO: A Model-Based and Data-Efficient Approach to Policy Search”, 2011
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“Death Note: L, Anonymity & Eluding Entropy”, 2011
“Death Note: L, Anonymity & Eluding Entropy”, 2011-05-04 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Experiments With the Site Frequency Spectrum”
“Lack of Confidence in Approximate Bayesian Computation Model Choice”, Robert & Al 2011
“Zeo Sleep Self-experiments”, 2010
“Zeo sleep self-experiments”, 2010-12-28 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Bayesian Data Analysis”, 2010
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“Darwin, Galton and the Statistical Enlightenment”, 2010b
“Darwin, Galton and the Statistical Enlightenment”, 2010-06-17 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Nootropics”, 2010
“Nootropics”, 2010-01-02 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Predicting the Next Big Thing: Success As a Signal of Poor Judgment”, 2010
“Case Studies in Bayesian Computation Using INLA”, 2010
“Case studies in Bayesian computation using INLA”, 2010 (; backlinks; similar)
“Who Wrote The ‘Death Note’ Script?”, 2009
“Who Wrote The ‘Death Note’ Script?”, 2009-11-02 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“When Superstars Flop: Public Status and Choking Under Pressure in International Soccer Penalty Shootouts”, 2009
“When Superstars Flop: Public Status and Choking Under Pressure in International Soccer Penalty Shootouts”, 2009-04-15 (; backlinks; similar)
“Prediction Markets”, 2009
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“A New Challenge to 98% Confidence”
“Models for Potentially Biased Evidence in Meta-analysis Using Empirically Based Priors”, Et Al 2008
“Models for potentially biased evidence in meta-analysis using empirically based priors”, 2008-12-22 (; similar)
“Optimal Approximation of Signal Priors”, 2008
“Optimal approximation of signal priors”, 2008-12-01 (; backlinks; similar)
“Verbal Probability Expressions In National Intelligence Estimates: A Comprehensive Analysis Of Trends From The Fifties Through Post-9/11”, 2008
“Verbal Probability Expressions In National Intelligence Estimates: A Comprehensive Analysis Of Trends From The Fifties Through Post-9/11”, 2008-05 (; backlinks; similar)
“The Allure of Equality: Uniformity in Probabilistic and Statistical Judgment”, 2008
“On Universal Prediction and Bayesian Confirmation”, 2007
“On Universal Prediction and Bayesian Confirmation”, 2007-09-11 (; similar)
“Introduction History Of Drosophila Subobscura In the New World: a Microsatellite-based Survey Using ABC Methods”, Et Al 2007
“Introduction history of Drosophila subobscura in the New World: a microsatellite-based survey using ABC methods”, 2007-07-17 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Experiments on Partisanship and Public Opinion: Party Cues, False Beliefs, and Bayesian Updating”, 2007
“Experiments on partisanship and public opinion: Party cues, false beliefs, and Bayesian updating”, 2007-06-01 (; backlinks; similar)
“A Free Energy Principle for the Brain”, Et Al 2006
“A free energy principle for the brain”, 2006-07-01 (; backlinks; similar)
“The Optimizer’s Curse: Skepticism and Postdecision Surprise in Decision Analysis”, 2006
“The Optimizer’s Curse: Skepticism and Postdecision Surprise in Decision Analysis”, 2006-03-01 (; backlinks; similar)
“Three Statistical Paradoxes in the Interpretation of Group Differences: Illustrated With Medical School Admission and Licensing Data”, 2006
“Three Statistical Paradoxes in the Interpretation of Group Differences: Illustrated with Medical School Admission and Licensing Data”, 2006 (backlinks; similar)
“Estimation of Non-Normalized Statistical Models by Score Matching”, 2005
“Estimation of Non-Normalized Statistical Models by Score Matching”, 2005-04 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“The Bayesian Brain: the Role of Uncertainty in Neural Coding and Computation”, 2004
“The Bayesian brain: the role of uncertainty in neural coding and computation”, 2004-12 (; backlinks; similar)
“Methods of Meta-Analysis: Correcting Error and Bias in Research Findings”, 2004
“Bayesian Informal Logic and Fallacy”, 2004
“Bayesian Informal Logic and Fallacy”, 2004 (; backlinks)
“Those Confounded Vitamins: What Can We Learn from the Differences between Observational versus Randomised Trial Evidence?”
“Two Statistical Paradoxes in the Interpretation of Group Differences: Illustrated With Medical School Admission and Licensing Data”, 2004
“Two Statistical Paradoxes in the Interpretation of Group Differences: Illustrated with Medical School Admission and Licensing Data”, 2004 (similar)
“Bayesian Computation: a Statistical Revolution”, 2003
“Bayesian computation: a statistical revolution”, 2003-11-03 (backlinks; similar)
“Bayesian Adaptive Exploration”, 2003
“Bayesian Adaptive Exploration”, 2003 (; backlinks)
“Constructing a Logic of Plausible Inference: A Guide to Cox’s Theorem”, 2003
“Constructing a Logic of Plausible Inference: A Guide to Cox’s Theorem”, 2003 (; similar)
“Simplifying Likelihood Ratios”, 2002
“Simplifying likelihood ratios”, 2002 (backlinks)
“Approximate Bayesian Computation in Population Genetics”, Et Al 2002
“Approximate Bayesian computation in population genetics”, 2002 (; backlinks; similar)
“A Bayesian Framework for Reinforcement Learning”, 2000
“A Bayesian Framework for Reinforcement Learning”, 2000-06-28 (; backlinks; similar)
“Kelley’s Paradox”, 2000
“Kelley’s Paradox”, 2000 (backlinks)
“A Conversation With I. Richard Savage (with the Assistance of Bruce Spencer)”, 1999
“On the Optimality of the Simple Bayesian Classifier under Zero-One Loss”, 1997
“On the Optimality of the Simple Bayesian Classifier under Zero-One Loss”, 1997-11-01 (; backlinks; similar)
“Statistical Issues in the Analysis of Data Gathered in the New Designs”, 1996
“Is There Sufficient Historical Evidence to Establish the Resurrection of Jesus?”, 1995
“The Relevance of Group Membership for Personnel Selection: A Demonstration Using Bayes’ Theorem”, 1994
“The Relevance of Group Membership for Personnel Selection: A Demonstration Using Bayes' Theorem”, 1994-09-01 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Subjective Probability”, 1994
“Subjective Probability”, 1994 (backlinks)
“The Ups and Downs of the Hope Function In a Fruitless Search”, Falk & Al 1994
“The Influence of Prior Beliefs on Scientific Judgments of Evidence Quality”, 1993
“The Influence of Prior Beliefs on Scientific Judgments of Evidence Quality”, 1993-10-01 (; similar)
“Smoking As ‘Independent’ Risk Factor for Suicide: Illustration of an Artifact from Observational Epidemiology?”, Et Al 1992
“Bias in Relative Odds Estimation owing to Imprecise Measurement of Correlated Exposures”, 1992
“A Closer Look at the Probabilities of the Notorious 3 Prisoners”
“How Independent Are ‘Independent’ Effects? Relative Risk Estimation When Correlated Exposures Are Measured Imprecisely”, 1991
“Bayes-Hermite Quadrature”, 1991
“Bayes-Hermite quadrature”, 1991
“The 1988 Neyman Memorial Lecture: A Galtonian Perspective on Shrinkage Estimators”, 1990
“The 1988 Neyman Memorial Lecture: A Galtonian Perspective on Shrinkage Estimators”, 1990-02-01 (backlinks; similar)
“Informal Conceptions of Probability”
“Intuitive Reasoning about Probability: Theoretical and Experimental Analyses of The ‘Problem of 3 Prisoners’”
“The Despicable Doctor Fischer’s (Bayesian) Bomb Party”
“Search Success and Expectations With a Computer Interface”
“The Double Exponential Distribution: Using Calculus to Find a Maximum Likelihood Estimator”, 1984
“This Week’s Citation Classic: Nearest Neighbor Pattern Classification”, 1982
“This Week's Citation Classic: Nearest Neighbor Pattern Classification”, 1982-03-05 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Stein’s Paradox in Statistics: The Best Guess about the Future Is Usually Obtained by Computing the Average of past Events. Stein’s Paradox Defines Circumstances in Which There Are Estimators Better Than the Arithmetic Average”
“Interpreting Regression toward the Mean in Developmental Research”, 1973
“Interpreting regression toward the mean in developmental research”, 1973 (; backlinks; similar)
“Nuisance Variables and the Ex Post Facto Design”, 1970
“Strategies of Search”
“Strategies of search”1968 (; backlinks)
“Nearest Neighbor Pattern Classification”, 1967
“Nearest neighbor pattern classification”, 1967-01 (; backlinks; similar)
“Control of Spurious Association and the Reliability of the Controlled Variable”, 1965
“Inference in an Authorship Problem: A Comparative Study of Discrimination Methods Applied to the Authorship of the Disputed Federalist Papers”, 1963
“Inference in an Authorship Problem: A Comparative Study of Discrimination Methods Applied to the Authorship of the Disputed Federalist Papers”, 1963-06 (similar)
“The Argentine Writer and Tradition”, 1951
“The Argentine Writer and Tradition”, 1951 (; backlinks; similar)
“Probability and the Weighing of Evidence”, 1950 (page 96)
“Regression Fallacies in the Matched Groups Experiment”, 1942
“Evaluating the Effect of Inadequately Measured Variables in Partial Correlation Analysis”, 1936
“Evaluating the Effect of Inadequately Measured Variables in Partial Correlation Analysis”, 1936 (; backlinks; similar)
“Interpretation of Educational Measurements”, 1927
“Interpretation of Educational Measurements”, 1927 (; backlinks; similar)
“Mr Keynes on Probability [review of J. M. Keynes, A Treatise on Probability 1921]”, 1922
“Philosophical Essay on Probabilities, Chapter 11: Concerning the Probabilities of Testimonies”, 1814
“Philosophical Essay on Probabilities, Chapter 11: Concerning the Probabilities of Testimonies”, 1814 (; backlinks; similar)
“Zend Framework: 36.6. Document Info and Metadata”
“Q: Population Statistics by Time Zone”
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“The Impact of Residual and Unmeasured Confounding in Epidemiologic Studies: A Simulation Study”
“Variants of Uncertainty”
“Brms: an R Package for Bayesian Generalized Multivariate Non-linear Multilevel Models Using Stan”, 2023
“brms: an R package for Bayesian generalized multivariate non-linear multilevel models using Stan”, (; backlinks; similar)
“Approximate Bayesian Computation”, Et Al 2023
“Approximate Bayesian Computation”, (backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Rumor Alert: Death Note Movie Script Leaked?”
“Why We Can’t Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They’re Unbiased)”
Wikipedia
Miscellaneous
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2007-teigen.pdf2007 (backlinks) -
2007-bullock-excerpt.pdf2007 (; backlinks) -
1993-mislevy.pdf1993 (backlinks) -
1978-humphreys.pdf1978 (backlinks) -
1965-black.pdf1965 (; backlinks) -
1923-kelley.pdf1923 (; backlinks) -
https://www.bzarg.com/p/how-a-kalman-filter-works-in-pictures/ -
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wE7SK8w8AixqknArs/a-time-invariant-version-of-laplace-s-rule
Link Bibliography
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https://osf.io/mhv8f/: “Are Most Published Criminological Research Findings Wrong? Taking Stock of Criminological Research Using a Bayesian Simulation Approach”, Richard E. Niemeyer, K. Ryan Proctor, Joseph Schwartz, Robert G. Niemeyer: -
https://arxiv.org/abs/2207.05221#anthropic: “Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know”, : -
https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.10510: “PFNs: Transformers Can Do Bayesian Inference”, Samuel Müller, Noah Hollmann, Sebastian Pineda Arango, Josif Grabocka, Frank Hutter: -
2021-odea.pdf: “Unifying Individual Differences in Personality, Predictability and Plasticity: A Practical Guide”, Rose E. O’Dea, Daniel W. A. Noble, Shinichi Nakagawa: -
https://psyarxiv.com/kvsp7/: “No Need to Choose: Robust Bayesian Meta-Analysis With Competing Publication Bias Adjustment Methods”, František Bartoš, Maximilian Maier, Eric-Jan Wagenmakers, Hristos Doucouliagos, T. D. Stanley: -
regression: “Regression To The Mean Fallacies”, Gwern Branwen: -
https://arxiv.org/abs/2011.15004: “The Statistical Properties of RCTs and a Proposal for Shrinkage”, Erik van Zwet, Simon Schwab, Stephen Senn: -
goodreads: “The Most ‘Abandoned’ Books on GoodReads”, Gwern Branwen: -
research-criticism: “How Should We Critique Research?”, Gwern Branwen: -
https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.01320#deepmind: “Meta-learners’ Learning Dynamics Are unlike Learners’”, Neil C. Rabinowitz: -
fermi: “Fermi Calculation Examples”, Gwern Branwen: -
backstop: “Evolution As Backstop for Reinforcement Learning”, Gwern Branwen: -
2018-everitt.pdf: “The Alignment Problem for Bayesian History-Based Reinforcement Learners”, Tom Everitt, Marcus Hutter: -
zma: “ZMA Sleep Experiment”, Gwern Branwen: -
water: “Self-Blinded Mineral Water Taste Test”, Gwern Branwen: -
coin-flip: “The Kelly Coin-Flipping Game: Exact Solutions”, Gwern Branwen, Arthur Breitman, nshepperd, FeepingCreature, Gurkenglas: -
ad: “Banner Ads Considered Harmful”, Gwern Branwen: -
media-rl: “The Explore-Exploit Dilemma in Media Consumption”, Gwern Branwen: -
candy-japan: “Candy Japan’s New Box A / B Test”, Gwern Branwen: -
order-statistics: “Calculating The Gaussian Expected Maximum”, Gwern Branwen: -
embryo-editing: “Embryo Editing for Intelligence”, Gwern Branwen: -
catnip-survey: “World Catnip Surveys”, Gwern Branwen: -
catnip: “Catnip Immunity and Alternatives”, Gwern Branwen: -
melon: “Bitter Melon for Blood Glucose”, Gwern Branwen: -
resorter: “Resorting Media Ratings”, Gwern Branwen: -
mail-delivery: “When Should I Check The Mail?”, Gwern Branwen: -
longevity: “Life Extension Cost-Benefits”, Gwern Branwen: -
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/sim.6381: “Predictive Distributions for Between-study Heterogeneity and Simple Methods for Their Application in Bayesian Meta-analysis”, Rebecca M. Turner, Dan Jackson, Yinghui Wei, Simon G. Thompson, Julian P. T. Higgins: -
everything: “Everything Is Correlated”, Gwern Branwen: -
statistic: “Statistical Notes”, Gwern Branwen: -
correlation: “How Often Does Correlation = Causality?”, Gwern Branwen: -
causality: “Why Correlation Usually ≠ Causation”, Gwern Branwen: -
bacopa: “Bacopa Quasi-Experiment”, Gwern Branwen: -
magnesium: “Magnesium Self-Experiments”, Gwern Branwen: -
caffeine: “Caffeine Wakeup Experiment”, Gwern Branwen: -
potassium: “Potassium Sleep Experiments”, Gwern Branwen: -
2012-election: “2012 Election Predictions”, Gwern Branwen: -
backfire-effect: “Biased Information As Anti-information”, Gwern Branwen: -
1994-falk: “The Ups and Downs of the Hope Function In a Fruitless Search”, Ruma Falk, Abigail Lipson, Clifford Konold: -
modus: “One Man’s Modus Ponens”, Gwern Branwen: -
vitamin-d: “Vitamin D Sleep Experiments”, Gwern Branwen: -
charity-is-not-about-helping: “Charity Is Not about Helping”, Gwern Branwen: -
1963-asimov: “The Sword of Achilles”, Isaac Asimov: -
death-note-anonymity: “Death Note: L, Anonymity & Eluding Entropy”, Gwern Branwen: -
zeo: “Zeo Sleep Self-experiments”, Gwern Branwen: -
2010-stigler-2.pdf: “Darwin, Galton and the Statistical Enlightenment”, Stephen M. Stigler: -
nootropics: “Nootropics”, Gwern Branwen: -
death-note-script: “Who Wrote The ‘Death Note’ Script?”, Gwern Branwen: -
prediction-market: “Prediction Markets”, Gwern Branwen: -
2007-pascual.pdf: “Introduction History of <em>Drosophila Subobscura< / em> in the New World: a Microsatellite-based Survey Using ABC Methods”, M. Pascual, M. P. Chapuis, F. Mestres, J. Balanyà, R. B. Huey, G. W. Gilchrist, L. Serra, A. Estoup: -
https://www.jmlr.org/papers/volume6/hyvarinen05a/hyvarinen05a.pdf: “Estimation of Non-Normalized Statistical Models by Score Matching”, Aapo Hyvärinen: -
1994-miller.pdf: “The Relevance of Group Membership for Personnel Selection: A Demonstration Using Bayes' Theorem”, Edward M. Miller: -
1982-cover.pdf: “This Week's Citation Classic: Nearest Neighbor Pattern Classification”, Thomas M. Cover: -
https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002803: “Approximate Bayesian Computation”, Mikael Sunnåker, Alberto Giovanni Busetto, Elina Numminen, Jukka Corander, Matthieu Foll, Christophe Dessimoz: