‘probability’ directory
- See Also
- Gwern
- Links
- “Foundations of Diffusion Models in General State Spaces: A Self-Contained Introduction”, Pauline et al 2025
- “The Missing 9: Why Some Movies Have a Hole in Their IMDb Ratings”, Gros 2025
- “Shorter Tokens Are More Likely [In LLM Sampling]”, Long 2025
- “Everything Is Correlated (2014–2023)”
- “On the Empirical Distribution of Numbers: At Last, Data-Driven Numerology [Parsing The Pile]”, osmarks 2025
- “Estimating the Probability of Sampling a Trained Neural Network at Random”, Scherlis & Belrose 2025
- “An Introduction To Forensic Metascience”, Heathers 2025
- “What Makes a Good Feedforward Computational Graph?”, Vitvitskyi et al 2025
- “A Numerical Evaluation of the Finite Monkeys Theorem”, Woodcock & Falletta 2024
- “Towards a Law of Iterated Expectations for Heuristic Estimators”, Christiano et al 2024
- “Sampling With SQL”, Moertel 2024
- “Statistical Patterns in the Equations of Physics and the Emergence of a Meta-Law of Nature”, Constantin et al 2024
- “A Proof That HT Is More Likely to Outnumber HH Than vice Versa in a Sequence of n Coin Flips”, Segert 2024
- “How to Answer Questions of the Type: If You Toss a Coin n Times, How Likely Is HH to Show up More Than HT?”, Ekhad & Zeilberger 2024
- “Verified Neural Compressed Sensing”, Bunel et al 2024
- “Multiply by 37 (Or Divide by 0.027): A Surprisingly Accurate Rule of Thumb for Converting Effect Sizes From Standard Deviations to Percentile Points”, Hippel 2024
- “Impossible Hypotheses and Effect-Size Limits”, Tilburg & Tilburg 2023
- “Hitting the Jackpot: The Birth of the Monte Carlo Method”, Summerscales 2023
- “Fair Coins Tend to Land on the Same Side They Started: Evidence from 350,757 Flips”, Bartoš et al 2023
- “How Correlated Are You?”, Downey 2023
- “The Lindy Effect”, Ord 2023
- “Sciama’s Argument on Life in a Random Universe: Distinguishing Apples from Oranges”, Wang & Braunstein 2023
- “Distinct Elements in Streams: An Algorithm for the (Text) Book”, Chakraborty et al 2023
- “Arithmetic Sampling: Parallel Diverse Decoding for Large Language Models”, Vilnis et al 2022
- “Why Are Roman-Period Dice Asymmetrical? An Experimental and Quantitative Approach”, Eerkens & Voogt 2022
- “The Dunning-Kruger Effect Is Autocorrelation”
- “Policy Learning and Evaluation With Randomized Quasi-Monte Carlo”, Arnold et al 2022
- “A High-Dimensional Sphere Spilling out of a High-Dimensional Cube despite Exponentially Many Constraints”, Fort 2022
- “Learning in High Dimension Always Amounts to Extrapolation”, Balestriero et al 2021
- “On Tilted Losses in Machine Learning (TERM): Theory and Applications”, Li et al 2021
- “Can Humans Perform Mental Regression on a Graph? Accuracy and Bias in the Perception of Scatterplots”, Ciccione & Dehaene 2021
- “The Piranha Problem: Large Effects Swimming in a Small Pond”, Tosh et al 2021
- “How to Shuffle Songs?”
- “A New Coefficient of Correlation”, Chatterjee 2020
- “Monte Carlo Gradient Estimation in Machine Learning”, Mohamed et al 2019
- “Going Critical”, Simler 2019
- “Follow-Up: I Found Two Identical Packs of Skittles, among 468 Packs With a Total of 27,740 Skittles”, Farmer 2019
- “Finite Mixture Models”, McLachlan et al 2019
- “Statistical Aspects of Wasserstein Distances”, Panaretos & Zemel 2019
- “Test Driving ‘Power of Two Random Choices’ Load Balancing”, Tarreau 2019
- “Tweedie Gradient Boosting for Extremely Unbalanced Zero-Inflated Data”, Zhou et al 2018
- “How to Shuffle a Big Dataset”, Hardin 2018
- “Logistic Regression Is Not Fucked”, Westfall 2018
- “Information Flow Reveals Prediction Limits in Online Social Activity”, Bagrow et al 2017
- “Requiem for a Shuffle: Why Steve Jobs Told Me He Loved the Littlest IPod—And Why We’re Going to Miss It”, Levy 2017
- “Varieties of Confidence Intervals”, Cousineau 2017
- “Asymptotically Optimal Amplifiers for the Moran Process”, Goldberg et al 2016
- “Amplifiers and Suppressors of Selection for the Moran Process on Undirected Graphs”, Giakkoupis 2016
- “Categorical Reparameterization With Gumbel-Softmax”, Jang et al 2016
- “The Concrete Distribution: A Continuous Relaxation of Discrete Random Variables”, Maddison et al 2016
- “Yule’s ‘Nonsense Correlation’ Solved!”, Ernst et al 2016
- “Secretary Problem With Quality-Based Payoff”, Blanc et al 2016
- “Amplifiers for the Moran Process”, Galanis et al 2015
- “Practical Probabilistic Programming With Monads”, Ścibior et al 2015
- “Most Undirected Random Graphs Are Amplifiers of Selection for Birth-Death Dynamics, but Suppressors of Selection for Death-Birth Dynamics”, Hindersin & Traulsen 2015
- “What Teachers Should Know about the Bootstrap: Resampling in the Undergraduate Statistics Curriculum”, Hesterberg 2014
- “Understanding Scaling through History-Dependent Processes With Collapsing Sample Space”, Corominas-Murtra et al 2014
- “Red Black Card Game and Generalized Catalan Numbers”, Howe 2014
- “Asymptotic Expression for the Fixation Probability of a Mutant in Star Graphs”, Chalub 2014
- “Universality of Fixation Probabilities in Randomly Structured Populations”, Adlam & Nowak 2014
- “Fixation Probabilities on Superstars, Revisited and Revised”, Jamieson-Lane & Hauert 2013
- “On the Distribution of Job Performance: The Role of Measurement Characteristics in Observed Departures from Normality”, Beck et al 2013
- “Star Performers in 21st Century Organizations”, Aguinis & O’Boyle 2013
- “Stein’s Paradox [Blog]”, Wasserman 2013
- “Potential Networks, Contagious Communities, and Understanding Social Network Structure”, Schoenebeck 2013
- “Site Map”
- “Page Weight Matters”, Zacharias 2012
- “Why Probabilistic Programming Matters”
- “Indefinite Survival through Backup Copies”, Sandberg & Armstrong 2012
- “Predicting the Outcome of Roulette”, Small & Tse 2012
- “Uniform Random Generation of Large Acyclic Digraphs”, Kuipers & Moffa 2012
- “Counting YouTube Videos via Random Prefix Sampling”, Zhou et al 2011
- “Quality of Random Number Generators Affects Results of Monte Carlo Simulations for Organic and Biological Systems”, Click et al 2011
- “A New Car-Following Model Yielding Log-Normal Type Headways Distributions”, Li et al 2010
- “Does Your IPod Really Play Favorites?”, Froelich et al 2009
- “When to Stop: How to Gamble If You Must—The Mathematics of Optimal Stopping”, Hill 2009
- “Optimal Stopping of a Brownian Bridge”, Ekström & Wanntorp 2009
- “Weldon’s Dice, Automated”, Labby 2009
- “The Epic Story of Maximum Likelihood”, Stigler 2007
- “Power-Law Distributions in Empirical Data”, Clauset et al 2007
- “The Complex Dynamics of Collaborative Tagging”, Halpin et al 2007
- “An Introduction to the Theory of Citing”, Simkin & Roychowdhury 2007
- “An Example of Statistical Investigation of the Text Eugene Onegin Concerning the Connection of Samples in Chains”, Markov 2006
- “A New Secretary Problem With Rank-Based Selection and Cardinal Payoffs”, Bearden 2006
- “Isaac Newton As a Probabilist”, Stigler 2006
- “Language Is Never, Ever, Ever, Random”, Kilgarriff 2005
- “Continuous Parameter Estimation Model: Expanding the Standard Statistical Paradigm”, Gorsuch 2005
- “An Alternative to Null-Hypothesis Statistical-Significance Tests”, Killeen 2005
- “Modelling the Recent Common Ancestry of All Living Humans”, Rohde et al 2004
- “Stochastic Modeling of Citation Slips”, Simkin & Roychowdhury 2004
- “Copied Citations Create Renowned Papers?”, Simkin & Roychowdhury 2003
- “Solution to the OK Corral Model via Decoupling of Friedman’s Urn”, Kingman & Volkov 2003
- “Read Before You Cite!”, Simkin & Roychowdhury 2002
- “A Tour of Accounting: Random Number Generator [Dilbert]”, Adams 2001
- “The Distribution of N-Grams”, Egghe 2000
- “Martingales In The Ok Corral”, Kingman 1999
- “The Ok Corral And The Power Of The Law (A Curious Poisson-Kernel Formula For A Parabolic Equation)”, Williams & McIlroy 1998
- “How Many Birds Are There?”, Gaston & Blackburn 1997
- “p-Adic Probability Interpretation of Bell’s Inequality”, Khrennikov 1995
- “Another Comment on O'Cinneide”, Mallows 1991
- “The Mean Is within One Standard Deviation of Any Median”, O’Cinneide 1990
- “A Note on Stochastic Dominance and Inequality Measures”, Muliere & Scarsini 1989
- “Methods for Studying Coincidences”, Diaconis & Mosteller 1989
- “Randomness Conservation Inequalities; Information and Independence in Mathematical Theories”, Levin 1984
- “Application of the Buffon Needle Problem and Its Extensions to Parallel-Line Search Sampling Scheme”, Chung 1981 (page 5)
- “A Convergent Gambling Estimate Of The Entropy Of English”, Cover & King 1978
- “Characteristic Statistical Problems of Stochastic Geometry”, Watson 1977 (page 12)
- “Stabilization in Systems: Chreods and Epigenetic Landscapes”, Waddington 1977
- “On Tail Probabilities for Martingales”, Freedman 1975
- “A Markov Process of Gene Frequency Change in a Geographically Structured Population”, Maruyama 1974
- “Choosing a Point from the Surface of a Sphere”, Marsaglia 1972
- “Estimating the Magnitude of Experimental Effects”, Fleiss 1969
- “How Deviant Can You Be?”, Samuelson 1968
- “A Simple Randomization Procedure”, Sandelius 1962
- “Generation of Random Permutations of Given Number of Elements Using Random Sampling Numbers”, Rao 1961
- “Chance Remarks”, Pierce 1949
- “Weighting Systems for Linear Functions of Correlated Variables When There Is No Dependent Variable”, Wilks 1938
- “The Limits of a Measure of Skewness”, Hotelling & Solomons 1932
- “Truth and Probability [1999 Electronic Edition]”, Ramsey 1926
- “There Is Still Only One Test”, Downey 2026
- “Visualizing Algorithms”
- “Formally Modeling Dreidel, the Sequel”, Wayne 2026
- “How to Cheat at Settlers of Catan by Loading the Dice”
- “Is Sending Factorio to Your Competitors’ Engineers a Cost-Effective Means of Sabotage?”, Bo 2026
- “Zero Tolerance for Bias”
- “User Probabilityislogic”, probabilityislogic 2026
- “Research Update: Towards a Law of Iterated Expectations for Heuristic Estimators”
- “How Long Does It Take to Become Gaussian?”
- “The Infinitesimal Model: Definition, Derivation, and Implications”
- “What Does Randomness Look Like?”
- thienan496
- Sort By Magic
- Wikipedia (36)
- Miscellaneous
- Bibliography
See Also
Gwern
“A Gambler’s Verity World”, Gwern 2024
“Calculating The Gaussian Expected Maximum”, Gwern 2016
Links
“Foundations of Diffusion Models in General State Spaces: A Self-Contained Introduction”, Pauline et al 2025
Foundations of Diffusion Models in General State Spaces: A Self-Contained Introduction
“The Missing 9: Why Some Movies Have a Hole in Their IMDb Ratings”, Gros 2025
The Missing 9: Why Some Movies Have a Hole in Their IMDb Ratings
“Shorter Tokens Are More Likely [In LLM Sampling]”, Long 2025
“Everything Is Correlated (2014–2023)”
“On the Empirical Distribution of Numbers: At Last, Data-Driven Numerology [Parsing The Pile]”, osmarks 2025
On the empirical distribution of numbers: At last, data-driven numerology [parsing The Pile]
“Estimating the Probability of Sampling a Trained Neural Network at Random”, Scherlis & Belrose 2025
Estimating the Probability of Sampling a Trained Neural Network at Random
“An Introduction To Forensic Metascience”, Heathers 2025
“What Makes a Good Feedforward Computational Graph?”, Vitvitskyi et al 2025
“A Numerical Evaluation of the Finite Monkeys Theorem”, Woodcock & Falletta 2024
“Towards a Law of Iterated Expectations for Heuristic Estimators”, Christiano et al 2024
Towards a Law of Iterated Expectations for Heuristic Estimators
“Sampling With SQL”, Moertel 2024
“Statistical Patterns in the Equations of Physics and the Emergence of a Meta-Law of Nature”, Constantin et al 2024
Statistical Patterns in the Equations of Physics and the Emergence of a Meta-Law of Nature
“A Proof That HT Is More Likely to Outnumber HH Than vice Versa in a Sequence of n Coin Flips”, Segert 2024
A proof that HT is more likely to outnumber HH than vice versa in a sequence of n coin flips
“How to Answer Questions of the Type: If You Toss a Coin n Times, How Likely Is HH to Show up More Than HT?”, Ekhad & Zeilberger 2024
“Verified Neural Compressed Sensing”, Bunel et al 2024
“Multiply by 37 (Or Divide by 0.027): A Surprisingly Accurate Rule of Thumb for Converting Effect Sizes From Standard Deviations to Percentile Points”, Hippel 2024
“Impossible Hypotheses and Effect-Size Limits”, Tilburg & Tilburg 2023
“Hitting the Jackpot: The Birth of the Monte Carlo Method”, Summerscales 2023
“Fair Coins Tend to Land on the Same Side They Started: Evidence from 350,757 Flips”, Bartoš et al 2023
Fair coins tend to land on the same side they started: Evidence from 350,757 Flips
“How Correlated Are You?”, Downey 2023
“The Lindy Effect”, Ord 2023
“Sciama’s Argument on Life in a Random Universe: Distinguishing Apples from Oranges”, Wang & Braunstein 2023
Sciama’s argument on life in a random universe: Distinguishing apples from oranges
“Distinct Elements in Streams: An Algorithm for the (Text) Book”, Chakraborty et al 2023
Distinct Elements in Streams: An Algorithm for the (Text) Book
“Arithmetic Sampling: Parallel Diverse Decoding for Large Language Models”, Vilnis et al 2022
Arithmetic Sampling: Parallel Diverse Decoding for Large Language Models
“Why Are Roman-Period Dice Asymmetrical? An Experimental and Quantitative Approach”, Eerkens & Voogt 2022
Why are Roman-period dice asymmetrical? An experimental and quantitative approach
“The Dunning-Kruger Effect Is Autocorrelation”
“Policy Learning and Evaluation With Randomized Quasi-Monte Carlo”, Arnold et al 2022
Policy Learning and Evaluation with Randomized Quasi-Monte Carlo
“A High-Dimensional Sphere Spilling out of a High-Dimensional Cube despite Exponentially Many Constraints”, Fort 2022
“Learning in High Dimension Always Amounts to Extrapolation”, Balestriero et al 2021
“On Tilted Losses in Machine Learning (TERM): Theory and Applications”, Li et al 2021
On Tilted Losses in Machine Learning (TERM): Theory and Applications
“Can Humans Perform Mental Regression on a Graph? Accuracy and Bias in the Perception of Scatterplots”, Ciccione & Dehaene 2021
Can humans perform mental regression on a graph? Accuracy and bias in the perception of scatterplots
“The Piranha Problem: Large Effects Swimming in a Small Pond”, Tosh et al 2021
“How to Shuffle Songs?”
“A New Coefficient of Correlation”, Chatterjee 2020
“Monte Carlo Gradient Estimation in Machine Learning”, Mohamed et al 2019
“Going Critical”, Simler 2019
“Follow-Up: I Found Two Identical Packs of Skittles, among 468 Packs With a Total of 27,740 Skittles”, Farmer 2019
Follow-up: I found two identical packs of Skittles, among 468 packs with a total of 27,740 Skittles
“Finite Mixture Models”, McLachlan et al 2019
“Statistical Aspects of Wasserstein Distances”, Panaretos & Zemel 2019
“Test Driving ‘Power of Two Random Choices’ Load Balancing”, Tarreau 2019
“Tweedie Gradient Boosting for Extremely Unbalanced Zero-Inflated Data”, Zhou et al 2018
Tweedie Gradient Boosting for Extremely Unbalanced Zero-inflated Data
“How to Shuffle a Big Dataset”, Hardin 2018
“Logistic Regression Is Not Fucked”, Westfall 2018
“Information Flow Reveals Prediction Limits in Online Social Activity”, Bagrow et al 2017
Information flow reveals prediction limits in online social activity
“Requiem for a Shuffle: Why Steve Jobs Told Me He Loved the Littlest IPod—And Why We’re Going to Miss It”, Levy 2017
“Varieties of Confidence Intervals”, Cousineau 2017
“Asymptotically Optimal Amplifiers for the Moran Process”, Goldberg et al 2016
“Amplifiers and Suppressors of Selection for the Moran Process on Undirected Graphs”, Giakkoupis 2016
Amplifiers and Suppressors of Selection for the Moran Process on Undirected Graphs
“Categorical Reparameterization With Gumbel-Softmax”, Jang et al 2016
“The Concrete Distribution: A Continuous Relaxation of Discrete Random Variables”, Maddison et al 2016
The Concrete Distribution: A Continuous Relaxation of Discrete Random Variables
“Yule’s ‘Nonsense Correlation’ Solved!”, Ernst et al 2016
“Secretary Problem With Quality-Based Payoff”, Blanc et al 2016
“Amplifiers for the Moran Process”, Galanis et al 2015
“Practical Probabilistic Programming With Monads”, Ścibior et al 2015
“Most Undirected Random Graphs Are Amplifiers of Selection for Birth-Death Dynamics, but Suppressors of Selection for Death-Birth Dynamics”, Hindersin & Traulsen 2015
“What Teachers Should Know about the Bootstrap: Resampling in the Undergraduate Statistics Curriculum”, Hesterberg 2014
What Teachers Should Know about the Bootstrap: Resampling in the Undergraduate Statistics Curriculum
“Understanding Scaling through History-Dependent Processes With Collapsing Sample Space”, Corominas-Murtra et al 2014
Understanding scaling through history-dependent processes with collapsing sample space
“Red Black Card Game and Generalized Catalan Numbers”, Howe 2014
“Asymptotic Expression for the Fixation Probability of a Mutant in Star Graphs”, Chalub 2014
Asymptotic expression for the fixation probability of a mutant in star graphs
“Universality of Fixation Probabilities in Randomly Structured Populations”, Adlam & Nowak 2014
Universality of fixation probabilities in randomly structured populations
“Fixation Probabilities on Superstars, Revisited and Revised”, Jamieson-Lane & Hauert 2013
“On the Distribution of Job Performance: The Role of Measurement Characteristics in Observed Departures from Normality”, Beck et al 2013
“Star Performers in 21st Century Organizations”, Aguinis & O’Boyle 2013
“Stein’s Paradox [Blog]”, Wasserman 2013
“Potential Networks, Contagious Communities, and Understanding Social Network Structure”, Schoenebeck 2013
Potential Networks, Contagious Communities, and Understanding Social Network Structure
“Site Map”
Site map :
View PDF:
“Page Weight Matters”, Zacharias 2012
“Why Probabilistic Programming Matters”
“Indefinite Survival through Backup Copies”, Sandberg & Armstrong 2012
“Predicting the Outcome of Roulette”, Small & Tse 2012
“Uniform Random Generation of Large Acyclic Digraphs”, Kuipers & Moffa 2012
“Counting YouTube Videos via Random Prefix Sampling”, Zhou et al 2011
“Quality of Random Number Generators Affects Results of Monte Carlo Simulations for Organic and Biological Systems”, Click et al 2011
“A New Car-Following Model Yielding Log-Normal Type Headways Distributions”, Li et al 2010
A new car-following model yielding log-normal type headways distributions
“Does Your IPod Really Play Favorites?”, Froelich et al 2009
“When to Stop: How to Gamble If You Must—The Mathematics of Optimal Stopping”, Hill 2009
When to Stop: How to gamble if you must—the mathematics of optimal stopping :
View PDF:
“Optimal Stopping of a Brownian Bridge”, Ekström & Wanntorp 2009
“Weldon’s Dice, Automated”, Labby 2009
“The Epic Story of Maximum Likelihood”, Stigler 2007
“Power-Law Distributions in Empirical Data”, Clauset et al 2007
“The Complex Dynamics of Collaborative Tagging”, Halpin et al 2007
“An Introduction to the Theory of Citing”, Simkin & Roychowdhury 2007
“An Example of Statistical Investigation of the Text Eugene Onegin Concerning the Connection of Samples in Chains”, Markov 2006
“A New Secretary Problem With Rank-Based Selection and Cardinal Payoffs”, Bearden 2006
A new secretary problem with rank-based selection and cardinal payoffs :
“Isaac Newton As a Probabilist”, Stigler 2006
“Language Is Never, Ever, Ever, Random”, Kilgarriff 2005
“Continuous Parameter Estimation Model: Expanding the Standard Statistical Paradigm”, Gorsuch 2005
Continuous Parameter Estimation Model: Expanding the Standard Statistical Paradigm :
“An Alternative to Null-Hypothesis Statistical-Significance Tests”, Killeen 2005
An alternative to null-hypothesis statistical-significance tests
“Modelling the Recent Common Ancestry of All Living Humans”, Rohde et al 2004
“Stochastic Modeling of Citation Slips”, Simkin & Roychowdhury 2004
“Copied Citations Create Renowned Papers?”, Simkin & Roychowdhury 2003
“Solution to the OK Corral Model via Decoupling of Friedman’s Urn”, Kingman & Volkov 2003
Solution to the OK Corral Model via Decoupling of Friedman’s Urn
“Read Before You Cite!”, Simkin & Roychowdhury 2002
“A Tour of Accounting: Random Number Generator [Dilbert]”, Adams 2001
![A Tour of Accounting: Random Number Generator [Dilbert]](/doc/statistics/probability/2001-11-25-scottadams-dilbert-tourofaccounting-randomness.jpg){kind=link}
“The Distribution of N-Grams”, Egghe 2000
“Martingales In The Ok Corral”, Kingman 1999
“The Ok Corral And The Power Of The Law (A Curious Poisson-Kernel Formula For A Parabolic Equation)”, Williams & McIlroy 1998
The Ok Corral And The Power Of The Law (A Curious Poisson-Kernel Formula For A Parabolic Equation) :
“How Many Birds Are There?”, Gaston & Blackburn 1997
“p-Adic Probability Interpretation of Bell’s Inequality”, Khrennikov 1995
“Another Comment on O'Cinneide”, Mallows 1991
“The Mean Is within One Standard Deviation of Any Median”, O’Cinneide 1990
“A Note on Stochastic Dominance and Inequality Measures”, Muliere & Scarsini 1989
“Methods for Studying Coincidences”, Diaconis & Mosteller 1989
“Randomness Conservation Inequalities; Information and Independence in Mathematical Theories”, Levin 1984
Randomness conservation inequalities; information and independence in mathematical theories
“Application of the Buffon Needle Problem and Its Extensions to Parallel-Line Search Sampling Scheme”, Chung 1981 (page 5)
Application of the Buffon needle problem and its extensions to parallel-line search sampling scheme
“A Convergent Gambling Estimate Of The Entropy Of English”, Cover & King 1978
“Characteristic Statistical Problems of Stochastic Geometry”, Watson 1977 (page 12)
“Stabilization in Systems: Chreods and Epigenetic Landscapes”, Waddington 1977
Stabilization in systems: Chreods and epigenetic landscapes :
“On Tail Probabilities for Martingales”, Freedman 1975
“A Markov Process of Gene Frequency Change in a Geographically Structured Population”, Maruyama 1974
A Markov process of gene frequency change in a geographically structured population
“Choosing a Point from the Surface of a Sphere”, Marsaglia 1972
“Estimating the Magnitude of Experimental Effects”, Fleiss 1969
“How Deviant Can You Be?”, Samuelson 1968
“A Simple Randomization Procedure”, Sandelius 1962
“Generation of Random Permutations of Given Number of Elements Using Random Sampling Numbers”, Rao 1961
Generation of Random Permutations of Given Number of Elements Using Random Sampling Numbers
“Chance Remarks”, Pierce 1949
“Weighting Systems for Linear Functions of Correlated Variables When There Is No Dependent Variable”, Wilks 1938
Weighting systems for linear functions of correlated variables when there is no dependent variable
“The Limits of a Measure of Skewness”, Hotelling & Solomons 1932
“Truth and Probability [1999 Electronic Edition]”, Ramsey 1926
“There Is Still Only One Test”, Downey 2026
“Visualizing Algorithms”
“Formally Modeling Dreidel, the Sequel”, Wayne 2026
“How to Cheat at Settlers of Catan by Loading the Dice”
“Is Sending Factorio to Your Competitors’ Engineers a Cost-Effective Means of Sabotage?”, Bo 2026
Is sending Factorio to your competitors’ engineers a cost-effective means of sabotage?
“Zero Tolerance for Bias”
“User Probabilityislogic”, probabilityislogic 2026
“Research Update: Towards a Law of Iterated Expectations for Heuristic Estimators”
Research update: Towards a Law of Iterated Expectations for Heuristic Estimators
“How Long Does It Take to Become Gaussian?”
“The Infinitesimal Model: Definition, Derivation, and Implications”
The infinitesimal model: Definition, derivation, and implications
“What Does Randomness Look Like?”
What does randomness look like?
View External Link:
https://www.wired.com/2012/12/what-does-randomness-look-like/
thienan496
Sort By Magic
Annotations sorted by machine learning into inferred 'tags'. This provides an alternative way to browse: instead of by date order, one can browse in topic order. The 'sorted' list has been automatically clustered into multiple sections & auto-labeled for easier browsing.
Beginning with the newest annotation, it uses the embedding of each annotation to attempt to create a list of nearest-neighbor annotations, creating a progression of topics. For more details, see the link.
effect-size
extrapolation-amplifiers random-graphs statistical-simulation high-dimensional random-processes
randomness-theory
Wikipedia (36)
Miscellaneous
/doc/statistics/probability/2024-09-05-gwern-meme-butitcouldworkforus-regressiontothemean.jpg/doc/statistics/probability/2018-hardin-shuffle-illustration.png/doc/statistics/probability/2009-ekstrom-figure1-optimalstoppingboundaryofabrownianbridgeproblem.png/doc/statistics/probability/1973-meshalkin-collectionofproblemsinprobabilitytheory.pdf:/doc/statistics/probability/1966-feller-anintroductiontoprobabilitytheoryanditsapplications-2.pdf:/doc/statistics/probability/1957-feller-anintroductiontoprobabilitytheoryanditsapplications-1.pdf:https://aleph.se/andart2/math/weird-probability-distributions/View External Link:
https://aleph.se/andart2/math/weird-probability-distributions/https://allendowney.blogspot.com/2013/08/are-my-data-normal.htmlhttps://blog.demofox.org/2017/05/29/when-random-numbers-are-too-random-low-discrepancy-sequences/https://dennybritz.com/posts/probability-monads-from-scratch/https://extremelearning.com.au/unreasonable-effectiveness-of-quasirandom-sequences/https://hackage.haskell.org/package/probabilityView External Link:
https://hedgehogreview.com/issues/markets-and-the-good/articles/language-machineryhttps://joe-antognini.github.io/machine-learning/steins-paradoxhttps://joshualoftus.com/posts/2020-11-23-least-squares-as-springs/https://lindeloev.github.io/tests-as-linear/View External Link:
https://marckhoury.github.io/blog/counterintuitive-properties-of-high-dimensional-space/https://nautil.us/the-man-who-invented-modern-probability-234497/https://queue.acm.org/detail.cfm?id=3570937View External Link:
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.2013.0193https://www.johndcook.com/blog/2023/09/29/platonic-solids-and-integration/View External Link:
https://www.johndcook.com/blog/2023/09/29/platonic-solids-and-integration/https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/no5jDTut5Byjqb4j5/six-and-a-half-intuitions-for-kl-divergencehttps://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pEZoTSCxHY3mfPbHu/catastrophic-goodhart-in-rl-with-kl-penaltyhttps://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vfb5Seaaqzk5kzChb/when-is-correlation-transitiveView External Link:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vfb5Seaaqzk5kzChb/when-is-correlation-transitivehttps://www.probabilistic-numerics.org/assets/ProbabilisticNumerics.pdf#page=3https://www.quantamagazine.org/computer-scientists-invent-an-efficient-new-way-to-count-20240516/https://www.reddit.com/r/SampleSize/comments/fr4rnl/results_i_asked_you_to_choose_any_integer_from/https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/Real-World/million.html-
View External Link:
Bibliography
https://jamesheathers.curve.space/: “An Introduction To Forensic Metascience”,https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/25152459231197605: “Impossible Hypotheses and Effect-Size Limits”,https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.15458#google: “Arithmetic Sampling: Parallel Diverse Decoding for Large Language Models”,2021-ciccione.pdf: “Can Humans Perform Mental Regression on a Graph? Accuracy and Bias in the Perception of Scatterplots”,https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.13445: “The Piranha Problem: Large Effects Swimming in a Small Pond”,2020-chatterjee.pdf: “A New Coefficient of Correlation”,https://www.wired.com/story/requiem-for-the-ipod-shuffle/: “Requiem for a Shuffle: Why Steve Jobs Told Me He Loved the Littlest IPod—And Why We’re Going to Miss It”,2009-froelich.pdf: “Does Your IPod Really Play Favorites?”,2009-ekstrom.pdf: “Optimal Stopping of a Brownian Bridge”,2007-halpin.pdf: “The Complex Dynamics of Collaborative Tagging”,1932-hotelling.pdf: “The Limits of a Measure of Skewness”,