 See Also

Links
 “Scientific Productivity As a Random Walk”, Zhang et al 2023
 “Is TargetBased Drug Discovery Efficient? Discovery and 'OffTarget' Mechanisms of All Drugs”, Sadri 2023
 “Power Law Trends in Speedrunning and Machine Learning”, Erdil & Sevilla 2023
 “Scaling Laws for Reward Model Overoptimization”, Gao et al 2022
 “Accurate Detection of Shared Genetic Architecture from GWAS Summary Statistics in the Smallsample Context”, Willis & Wallace 2022
 “Predictive Validity in Drug Discovery: What It Is, Why It Matters and How to Improve It”, Scannell et al 2022
 “Bias, Fairness, and Validity in GraduateSchool Admissions: A Psychometric Perspective”, Woo et al 2022
 “Improving GraduateSchool Admissions by Expanding Rather Than Eliminating Predictors”, Nye & Ryan 2022
 “What Was Not Said and What to Do About It”, Kuncel & Worrell 2022
 “The Promise of Potential: A Study on the Effectiveness of Jury Selection to a Prestigious Visual Arts Program”, Kackovic et al 2022
 “Effective Mutation Rate Adaptation through Group Elite Selection”, Kumar et al 2022
 “Assessing the Response to Genomic Selection by Simulation”, Buntaran et al 2022
 “On Extensions of Rank Correlation Coefficients to Multivariate Spaces”, Han 2021
 “A Review of the Gumbelmax Trick and Its Extensions for Discrete Stochasticity in Machine Learning”, Huijben et al 2021
 “Human Mortality at Extreme Age”, Belzile et al 2021
 “On Boosting the Power of Chatterjee’s Rank Correlation”, Lin & Han 2021
 “Common Selection Scenarios”, Gwern 2021
 “Artificial Intelligence in Drug Discovery: What Is Realistic, What Are Illusions? Part 1: Ways to Make an Impact, and Why We Are Not There Yet: Quality Is More Important Than Speed and Cost in Drug Discovery”, Bender & CortésCiriano 2021
 “Recipes and Economic Growth: A Combinatorial March Down an Exponential Tail”, Jones 2021
 “Counterproductive Altruism: The Other Heavy Tail”, Kokotajlo & Oprea 2020
 “A New Coefficient of Correlation”, Chatterjee 2020
 “A New Coefficient of Correlation: Supplementary Material: Proofs”, Chatterjee 2020
 “Supercentenarian and Remarkable Age Records Exhibit Patterns Indicative of Clerical Errors and Pension Fraud”, Newman 2020
 “A Simple Measure of Conditional Dependence”, Azadkia & Chatterjee 2019
 “Low Base Rates Prevented Terman from Identifying Future Nobelists”, Warne et al 2019
 “Scalefree Networks Are Rare”, Broido & Clauset 2019
 “RightTail Range Restriction: A Lurking Threat to Detecting Associations between Traits and Skill among Experts”, Kell & Wai 2019
 “Open Questions”, Gwern 2018
 “Dog Cloning For Special Forces: Breed All You Can Breed”, Gwern 2018
 “Nature vs. Nurture: Have Performance Gaps Between Men and Women Reached an Asymptote?”, MillardStafford et al 2018
 “Categorizing Variants of Goodhart’s Law”, Manheim & Garrabrant 2018
 “Innovation and Cumulative Culture through Tweaks and Leaps in Online Programming Contests”, Miu et al 2018
 “The ExploreExploit Dilemma in Media Consumption”, Gwern 2016
 “Genius Revisited Revisited”, Gwern 2016
 “When Quality Beats Quantity: Decision Theory, Drug Discovery, and the Reproducibility Crisis”, Scannell & Bosley 2016
 “Calculating The Gaussian Expected Maximum”, Gwern 2016
 “Embryo Selection For Intelligence”, Gwern 2016
 “Comparing the Pearson and Spearman Correlation Coefficients across Distributions and Sample Sizes: A Tutorial Using Simulations and Empirical Data”, Winter et al 2016
 “Life Extension CostBenefits”, Gwern 2015
 “Leaky Pipelines”, Gwern 2014
 “Why the Tails Come Apart”, Thrasymachus 2014
 “The Discovery of Firstinclass Drugs: Origins and Evolution”, Eder et al 2014
 “Statistical Notes”, Gwern 2014
 “Spearman’s Rho for the AMH Copula: a Beautiful Formula”, Machler 2014
 “Conscientiousness & Online Education”, Gwern 2012
 “The Best And The Rest: Revisiting The Norm Of Normality Of Individual Performance”, O’Boyle & Aguinis 2012
 “A CopulaBased Nonparametric Measure of Regression Dependence”, Dette et al 2012
 “How Were New Medicines Discovered?”, Swinney & Anthony 2011
 “A New Carfollowing Model Yielding Lognormal Type Headways Distributions”, Li et al 2010
 “Powerlaw Distributions in Empirical Data”, Clauset et al 2007
 “The Major Role of Clinicians in the Discovery of OffLabel Drug Therapies”, DeMonaco et al 2006
 “Copula Associated to Order Statistics”, Anjos et al 2005
 “Computing the Distribution and Expected Value of the Concomitant RankOrder Statistics”, Barakat & ElShandidy 2004
 “Accurate Approximation to the Extreme Order Statistics of Gaussian Samples”, Chen & Tyler 1999
 “Research, Patenting, and Technological Change”, Kortum 1997
 “Seeing The Forest From The Trees: When Predicting The Behavior Or Status Of Groups, Correlate Means”, Lubinski & Humphreys 1996b
 “The Relevance of Group Membership for Personnel Selection: A Demonstration Using Bayes’ Theorem”, Miller 1994
 “Validity of the GRE without Restriction of Range”, Huitema & Stein 1993
 “Maxima of Normal Random Vectors: Between Independence and Complete Dependence”, Hüsler & Reiss 1989
 “Fairness in Employment Testing: Validity Generalization, Minority Issues, and the General Aptitude Test Battery”, Hartigan & Wigdor 1989
 “Forecasting Records by Maximum Likelihood”, Smith 1988
 “The Asymptotic Theory of Extreme Order Statistics, Second Edition”, Galambos 1987
 “An Examination of Two Alternative Techniques to Estimate the Standard Deviation of Job Performance in Dollars”, Reilly & Smither 1985
 “Expected Normal Order Statistics (Exact and Approximate)”, Royston 1982
 “Impact of Valid Selection Procedures on Workforce Productivity”, Schmidt et al 1979
 “Asymptotic Independence of Certain Statistics Connected With the Extreme Order Statistics in a Bivariate Distribution”, Srivastava 1967
 “Estimating Bounds on Athletic Performance”, Deakin 1967
 “Asymptotic Independence of Bivariate Extremes”, Mardia 1964
 “Expected Values of Normal Order Statistics”, Harter 1961
 “Bivariate Extreme Statistics, I”, Sibuya 1960
 “Statistical Estimates and Transformed BetaVariables”, Blom 1958
 “On the Statistics of Individual Variations of Productivity in Research Laboratories”, Shockley 1957
 “The Asymptotical Distribution of Range in Samples from a Normal Population”, Elfving 1947
 “The Relationship Of Validity Coefficients To The Practical Effectiveness Of Tests In Selection: Discussion And Tables”
 “Statistical Method”, Kelley 1923
 “What Does It Mean to Have a Low Rsquared? A Warning about Misleading Interpretation”
 Sort By Magic
 Wikipedia
 Miscellaneous
 Link Bibliography
See Also
Links
“Scientific Productivity As a Random Walk”, Zhang et al 2023
“Is TargetBased Drug Discovery Efficient? Discovery and 'OffTarget' Mechanisms of All Drugs”, Sadri 2023
“Is TargetBased Drug Discovery Efficient? Discovery and 'OffTarget' Mechanisms of All Drugs”
“Power Law Trends in Speedrunning and Machine Learning”, Erdil & Sevilla 2023
“Scaling Laws for Reward Model Overoptimization”, Gao et al 2022
“Accurate Detection of Shared Genetic Architecture from GWAS Summary Statistics in the Smallsample Context”, Willis & Wallace 2022
“Predictive Validity in Drug Discovery: What It Is, Why It Matters and How to Improve It”, Scannell et al 2022
“Predictive validity in drug discovery: what it is, why it matters and how to improve it”
“Bias, Fairness, and Validity in GraduateSchool Admissions: A Psychometric Perspective”, Woo et al 2022
“Bias, Fairness, and Validity in GraduateSchool Admissions: A Psychometric Perspective”
“Improving GraduateSchool Admissions by Expanding Rather Than Eliminating Predictors”, Nye & Ryan 2022
“Improving GraduateSchool Admissions by Expanding Rather Than Eliminating Predictors”
“What Was Not Said and What to Do About It”, Kuncel & Worrell 2022
“The Promise of Potential: A Study on the Effectiveness of Jury Selection to a Prestigious Visual Arts Program”, Kackovic et al 2022
“Effective Mutation Rate Adaptation through Group Elite Selection”, Kumar et al 2022
“Effective Mutation Rate Adaptation through Group Elite Selection”
“Assessing the Response to Genomic Selection by Simulation”, Buntaran et al 2022
“On Extensions of Rank Correlation Coefficients to Multivariate Spaces”, Han 2021
“On extensions of rank correlation coefficients to multivariate spaces”
“A Review of the Gumbelmax Trick and Its Extensions for Discrete Stochasticity in Machine Learning”, Huijben et al 2021
“A Review of the Gumbelmax Trick and its Extensions for Discrete Stochasticity in Machine Learning”
“Human Mortality at Extreme Age”, Belzile et al 2021
“On Boosting the Power of Chatterjee’s Rank Correlation”, Lin & Han 2021
“Common Selection Scenarios”, Gwern 2021
“Artificial Intelligence in Drug Discovery: What Is Realistic, What Are Illusions? Part 1: Ways to Make an Impact, and Why We Are Not There Yet: Quality Is More Important Than Speed and Cost in Drug Discovery”, Bender & CortésCiriano 2021
“Recipes and Economic Growth: A Combinatorial March Down an Exponential Tail”, Jones 2021
“Recipes and Economic Growth: A Combinatorial March Down an Exponential Tail”
“Counterproductive Altruism: The Other Heavy Tail”, Kokotajlo & Oprea 2020
“A New Coefficient of Correlation”, Chatterjee 2020
“A New Coefficient of Correlation: Supplementary Material: Proofs”, Chatterjee 2020
“A New Coefficient of Correlation: Supplementary material: Proofs”
“Supercentenarian and Remarkable Age Records Exhibit Patterns Indicative of Clerical Errors and Pension Fraud”, Newman 2020
“A Simple Measure of Conditional Dependence”, Azadkia & Chatterjee 2019
“Low Base Rates Prevented Terman from Identifying Future Nobelists”, Warne et al 2019
“Low Base Rates Prevented Terman from Identifying Future Nobelists”
“Scalefree Networks Are Rare”, Broido & Clauset 2019
“RightTail Range Restriction: A Lurking Threat to Detecting Associations between Traits and Skill among Experts”, Kell & Wai 2019
“Open Questions”, Gwern 2018
“Dog Cloning For Special Forces: Breed All You Can Breed”, Gwern 2018
“Nature vs. Nurture: Have Performance Gaps Between Men and Women Reached an Asymptote?”, MillardStafford et al 2018
“Nature vs. Nurture: Have Performance Gaps Between Men and Women Reached an Asymptote?”
“Categorizing Variants of Goodhart’s Law”, Manheim & Garrabrant 2018
“Innovation and Cumulative Culture through Tweaks and Leaps in Online Programming Contests”, Miu et al 2018
“Innovation and cumulative culture through tweaks and leaps in online programming contests”
“The ExploreExploit Dilemma in Media Consumption”, Gwern 2016
“Genius Revisited Revisited”, Gwern 2016
“When Quality Beats Quantity: Decision Theory, Drug Discovery, and the Reproducibility Crisis”, Scannell & Bosley 2016
“When Quality Beats Quantity: Decision Theory, Drug Discovery, and the Reproducibility Crisis”
“Calculating The Gaussian Expected Maximum”, Gwern 2016
“Embryo Selection For Intelligence”, Gwern 2016
“Comparing the Pearson and Spearman Correlation Coefficients across Distributions and Sample Sizes: A Tutorial Using Simulations and Empirical Data”, Winter et al 2016
“Life Extension CostBenefits”, Gwern 2015
“Leaky Pipelines”, Gwern 2014
“Why the Tails Come Apart”, Thrasymachus 2014
“The Discovery of Firstinclass Drugs: Origins and Evolution”, Eder et al 2014
“The discovery of firstinclass drugs: origins and evolution”
“Statistical Notes”, Gwern 2014
“Spearman’s Rho for the AMH Copula: a Beautiful Formula”, Machler 2014
“Conscientiousness & Online Education”, Gwern 2012
“The Best And The Rest: Revisiting The Norm Of Normality Of Individual Performance”, O’Boyle & Aguinis 2012
“The Best And The Rest: Revisiting The Norm Of Normality Of Individual Performance”
“A CopulaBased Nonparametric Measure of Regression Dependence”, Dette et al 2012
“A CopulaBased Nonparametric Measure of Regression Dependence”
“How Were New Medicines Discovered?”, Swinney & Anthony 2011
“A New Carfollowing Model Yielding Lognormal Type Headways Distributions”, Li et al 2010
“A new carfollowing model yielding lognormal type headways distributions”
“Powerlaw Distributions in Empirical Data”, Clauset et al 2007
“The Major Role of Clinicians in the Discovery of OffLabel Drug Therapies”, DeMonaco et al 2006
“The Major Role of Clinicians in the Discovery of OffLabel Drug Therapies”
“Copula Associated to Order Statistics”, Anjos et al 2005
“Computing the Distribution and Expected Value of the Concomitant RankOrder Statistics”, Barakat & ElShandidy 2004
“Computing the Distribution and Expected Value of the Concomitant RankOrder Statistics”
“Accurate Approximation to the Extreme Order Statistics of Gaussian Samples”, Chen & Tyler 1999
“Accurate approximation to the extreme order statistics of Gaussian samples”
“Research, Patenting, and Technological Change”, Kortum 1997
“Seeing The Forest From The Trees: When Predicting The Behavior Or Status Of Groups, Correlate Means”, Lubinski & Humphreys 1996b
“The Relevance of Group Membership for Personnel Selection: A Demonstration Using Bayes’ Theorem”, Miller 1994
“The Relevance of Group Membership for Personnel Selection: A Demonstration Using Bayes’ Theorem”
“Validity of the GRE without Restriction of Range”, Huitema & Stein 1993
“Maxima of Normal Random Vectors: Between Independence and Complete Dependence”, Hüsler & Reiss 1989
“Maxima of normal random vectors: Between independence and complete dependence”
“Fairness in Employment Testing: Validity Generalization, Minority Issues, and the General Aptitude Test Battery”, Hartigan & Wigdor 1989
“Forecasting Records by Maximum Likelihood”, Smith 1988
“The Asymptotic Theory of Extreme Order Statistics, Second Edition”, Galambos 1987
“The Asymptotic Theory of Extreme Order Statistics, Second Edition”
“An Examination of Two Alternative Techniques to Estimate the Standard Deviation of Job Performance in Dollars”, Reilly & Smither 1985
“Expected Normal Order Statistics (Exact and Approximate)”, Royston 1982
“Impact of Valid Selection Procedures on Workforce Productivity”, Schmidt et al 1979
“Impact of valid selection procedures on workforce productivity”
“Asymptotic Independence of Certain Statistics Connected With the Extreme Order Statistics in a Bivariate Distribution”, Srivastava 1967
“Estimating Bounds on Athletic Performance”, Deakin 1967
“Asymptotic Independence of Bivariate Extremes”, Mardia 1964
“Expected Values of Normal Order Statistics”, Harter 1961
“Bivariate Extreme Statistics, I”, Sibuya 1960
“Statistical Estimates and Transformed BetaVariables”, Blom 1958
“On the Statistics of Individual Variations of Productivity in Research Laboratories”, Shockley 1957
“On the Statistics of Individual Variations of Productivity in Research Laboratories”
“The Asymptotical Distribution of Range in Samples from a Normal Population”, Elfving 1947
“The Asymptotical Distribution of Range in Samples from a Normal Population”
“The Relationship Of Validity Coefficients To The Practical Effectiveness Of Tests In Selection: Discussion And Tables”
“Statistical Method”, Kelley 1923
“What Does It Mean to Have a Low Rsquared? A Warning about Misleading Interpretation”
“What does it mean to have a low Rsquared? A warning about misleading interpretation”
Sort By Magic
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Beginning with the newest annotation, it uses the embedding of each annotation to attempt to create a list of nearestneighbor annotations, creating a progression of topics. For more details, see the link.
complexity
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Wikipedia
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/doc/statistics/order/20220725gwernactivelearningvsrandomsearch200simulationruns.webm

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https://www.authorea.com/users/429500/articles/533177modellingatimeseriesofrecordsinpymc3

https://www.johndcook.com/blog/2023/05/30/reviewingathousandthings/

https://www.johndcook.com/blog/2023/06/09/couponcollector2/

https://www.johndcook.com/blog/2023/09/30/consecutivecouponcollectorproblem/

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EbFABnst8LsidYs5Y/goodharttaxonomy

https://www.science.org/content/blogpost/targetbaseddrugdiscoverywastetime
Link Bibliography

2023sadri.pdf
: “Is TargetBased Drug Discovery Efficient? Discovery and 'OffTarget' Mechanisms of All Drugs”, Arash Sadri 
https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.10760#openai
: “Scaling Laws for Reward Model Overoptimization”, Leo Gao, John Schulman, Jacob Hilton 
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1359644620305274#sec0010
: “Artificial Intelligence in Drug Discovery: What Is Realistic, What Are Illusions? Part 1: Ways to Make an Impact, and Why We Are Not There Yet: Quality Is More Important Than Speed and Cost in Drug Discovery”, Andreas Bender, Isidro CortésCiriano 
https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28340/w28340.pdf
: “Recipes and Economic Growth: A Combinatorial March Down an Exponential Tail”, Charles I. Jones 
2020chatterjee.pdf
: “A New Coefficient of Correlation”, Sourav Chatterjee 
question
: “Open Questions”, Gwern 
clone
: “Dog Cloning For Special Forces: Breed All You Can Breed”, Gwern 
mediarl
: “The ExploreExploit Dilemma in Media Consumption”, Gwern 
hunter
: “Genius Revisited Revisited”, Gwern 
orderstatistic
: “Calculating The Gaussian Expected Maximum”, Gwern 
embryoselection
: “Embryo Selection For Intelligence”, Gwern 
longevity
: “Life Extension CostBenefits”, Gwern 
pipeline
: “Leaky Pipelines”, Gwern 
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dC7mP5nSwvpL65Qu5/whythetailscomeapart
: “Why the Tails Come Apart”, Thrasymachus 
statistic
: “Statistical Notes”, Gwern 
conscientiousness
: “Conscientiousness & Online Education”, Gwern 
1997kortoum.pdf
: “Research, Patenting, and Technological Change”, Samuel S. Kortum 
1996lubinski2.pdf
: “Seeing The Forest From The Trees: When Predicting The Behavior Or Status Of Groups, Correlate Means”, David Lubinski, Lloyd G. Humphreys 
1994miller.pdf
: “The Relevance of Group Membership for Personnel Selection: A Demonstration Using Bayes’ Theorem”, Edward M. Miller