- See Also
-
Links
- “The Unlikelihood Effect: When Knowing More Creates the Perception of Less”, 2022
- “Does Constructing a Belief Distribution Truly Reduce Overconfidence?”, 2022
- “An Appropriate Verbal Probability Lexicon for Communicating Surgical Risks Is Unlikely To Exist”, Et Al 2022
- “A Simple Cognitive Method to Improve the Prediction of Matters of Taste by Exploiting the Within-person Wisdom-of-crowd Effect”, Et Al 2022
- “Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know”, Et Al 2022
- “Modeling Transformative AI Risks (MTAIR) Project—Summary Report”, Et Al 2022
- “Taking a Disagreeing Perspective Improves the Accuracy of People’s Quantitative Estimates”, Calseyde & 2022
- “Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Words”, Et Al 2022
- “ “Two Truths and a Lie” As a Class-participation Activity”, 2022
- “DeepMind: The Podcast—Excerpts on AGI”, 2022
- “Many Heads Are More Utilitarian Than One”, Et Al 2022
- “Uncalibrated Models Can Improve Human-AI Collaboration”, Et Al 2022
- “A 680,000-person Megastudy of Nudges to Encourage Vaccination in Pharmacies”, Et Al 2022
- “TACTiS: Transformer-Attentional Copulas for Time Series”, Et Al 2022
- “Dream Interpretation from a Cognitive and Cultural Evolutionary Perspective: The Case of Oneiromancy in Traditional China”, 2022
- “M5 Accuracy Competition: Results, Findings, and Conclusions”, Et Al 2022
- “Megastudies Improve the Impact of Applied Behavioural Science”, Et Al 2021
- “Forecasting Skills in Experimental Markets: Illusion or Reality?”, Et Al 2021
- “Strategically Overconfident (to a Fault): How Self-promotion Motivates Advisor Confidence”, 2021
- “Sigmoids Behaving Badly: Why They Usually Cannot Predict the Future as well as They Seem to Promise”, Et Al 2021
- “Wise Teamwork: Collective Confidence Calibration Predicts the Effectiveness of Group Discussion”, 2021
- “Alignment Problems With Current Forecasting Platforms”, 2021
- “Behavioral Scientists and Laypeople Misestimate Societal Effects of COVID-19”, Et Al 2021
- “How the Wisdom of Crowds, and of the Crowd Within, Are Affected by Expertise”, 2021
- “Kaggle Forecasting Competitions: An Overlooked Learning Opportunity”, 2020
- “Danny Hernandez on Forecasting and the Drivers of AI Progress”, Et Al 2020
- “AI and Efficiency: We’re Releasing an Analysis Showing That Since 2012 the Amount of Compute Needed to Train a Neural Net to the Same Performance on ImageNet Classification Has Been Decreasing by a Factor of 2 Every 16 Months”, 2020
- “LightGBM: A Highly Efficient Gradient Boosting Decision Tree”, Et Al 2019
- “Predicting History”, Et Al 2019
- “N-BEATS: Neural Basis Expansion Analysis for Interpretable Time Series Forecasting”, Et Al 2019
- “Evidence on Good Forecasting Practices from the Good Judgment Project”, Impacts 2019
- “Forecasting Transformative AI: An Expert Survey”, Et Al 2019
- “The Wisdom of Crowds Approach to Influenza-Rate Forecasting”, Et Al 2018
- “Predicting Replication Outcomes in the Many Labs 2 Study”, Et Al 2018
- “The Wisdom of the Inner Crowd in Three Large Natural Experiments”, 2017
- “When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts”, Et Al 2017
- “DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting With Autoregressive Recurrent Networks”, Et Al 2017
- “Long Bets As Charitable Giving Opportunity”, 2017
- “Embryo Selection For Intelligence”, 2016
- “Looking Across and Looking Beyond the Knowledge Frontier: Intellectual Distance, Novelty, and Resource Allocation in Science”, Et Al 2016
- “Technology Forecasting: The Garden of Forking Paths”, 2014
- “Complexity No Bar to AI”, 2014
- “Darknet Market Mortality Risks”, 2013
- “Mechanical Versus Clinical Data Combination in Selection and Admissions Decisions: A Meta-Analysis”, Et Al 2013
- “Predicting Google Closures”, 2013
- “Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns 2013”, Et Al 2013
- “Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress”, Et Al 2012
- “‘HP: Methods of Rationality’ Review Statistics”, 2012
- “LSD Microdosing RCT”, 2012
- “‘Methods of Rationality’ Predictions”, 2012
- “Learning Performance of Prediction Markets With Kelly Bettors”, Et Al 2012
- “NGE Rebuild Predictions”, 2011
- “A Prediction Market for Macro-Economic Variables”, Et Al 2011
- “Why Do Humans Reason? Arguments for an Argumentative Theory”, 2011
- “Zeo Sleep Self-experiments”, 2010
- “The Ones Who Walk Towards Acre”, 2010
- “Goodbye 2010”, 2010
- “About This Website”, 2010
- “Applying the Fermi Estimation Technique to Business Problems”, 2010
- “Nootropics”, 2010
- “Predicting the Next Big Thing: Success As a Signal of Poor Judgment”, 2010
- “Summers of Code, 2006–2013”, 2009
- “Keep Your Identity Small”, 2009
- “Wikipedia & Knol: Why Knol Already Failed”, 2009
- “In Defense of Inclusionism”, 2009
- “Choosing Software”, 2008
- “Measuring the Crowd Within: Probabilistic Representations Within Individuals”, 2008
- “The Meta-Analysis of Clinical Judgment Project: 56 Years of Accumulated Research on Clinical Versus Statistical Prediction”, Ægisdóttir Et Al 2006
- “A Systematic Review on Communicating With Patients about Evidence”, Et Al 2005
- “Expert Opinions in Forecasting: the Role of the Delphi Technique”
- “Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners”, 2001
- “Who Is Arguing About the Cat? Moral Action and Enlightenment According to Dōgen”, 1997
- “The Impact of Task Characteristics on the Performance of Structured Group Forecasting Techniques”
- “Eliminating the Hindsight Bias”, Et Al 1988
- “Forecasting Records by Maximum Likelihood”, 1988
- “Self-Prediction: Exploring the Parameters of Accuracy”
- “Fault Trees: Sensitivity of Estimated Failure Probabilities to Problem Representation”, Fischhoff & Al 1978
- “The Futurists”, 1972
- “Tales from Prediction Markets”
- “Using Learning Curve Theory to Redefine Moore’s Law”
- Wikipedia
- Miscellaneous
- Link Bibliography
See Also
Links
“The Unlikelihood Effect: When Knowing More Creates the Perception of Less”, 2022
“The unlikelihood effect: When knowing more creates the perception of less”, 2022-10-13 (; backlinks; similar)
“Does Constructing a Belief Distribution Truly Reduce Overconfidence?”, 2022
“Does constructing a belief distribution truly reduce overconfidence?”, 2022-09-12 (; similar)
“An Appropriate Verbal Probability Lexicon for Communicating Surgical Risks Is Unlikely To Exist”, Et Al 2022
“An appropriate verbal probability lexicon for communicating surgical risks is unlikely to exist”, 2022-07-28 (similar)
“A Simple Cognitive Method to Improve the Prediction of Matters of Taste by Exploiting the Within-person Wisdom-of-crowd Effect”, Et Al 2022
“A simple cognitive method to improve the prediction of matters of taste by exploiting the within-person wisdom-of-crowd effect”, 2022-07-20 (; similar)
“Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know”, Et Al 2022
“Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know”, 2022-07-11 (; similar; bibliography)
“Modeling Transformative AI Risks (MTAIR) Project—Summary Report”, Et Al 2022
“Modeling Transformative AI Risks (MTAIR) Project—Summary Report”, 2022-06-19 (; similar)
“Taking a Disagreeing Perspective Improves the Accuracy of People’s Quantitative Estimates”, Calseyde & 2022
“Taking a Disagreeing Perspective Improves the Accuracy of People’s Quantitative Estimates”, 2022-06-01 (similar)
“Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Words”, Et Al 2022
“Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Words”, 2022-05-28 (; backlinks; similar)
“ “Two Truths and a Lie” As a Class-participation Activity”, 2022
“ “Two truths and a lie” as a class-participation activity”, 2022-04-28 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“DeepMind: The Podcast—Excerpts on AGI”, 2022
“DeepMind: The Podcast—Excerpts on AGI”, 2022-04-07 (; similar; bibliography)
“Many Heads Are More Utilitarian Than One”, Et Al 2022
“Many heads are more utilitarian than one”, 2022-03-01 (; similar)
“Uncalibrated Models Can Improve Human-AI Collaboration”, Et Al 2022
“Uncalibrated Models Can Improve Human-AI Collaboration”, 2022-02-12 (; similar)
“A 680,000-person Megastudy of Nudges to Encourage Vaccination in Pharmacies”, Et Al 2022
“A 680,000-person megastudy of nudges to encourage vaccination in pharmacies”, 2022-02-08 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“TACTiS: Transformer-Attentional Copulas for Time Series”, Et Al 2022
“TACTiS: Transformer-Attentional Copulas for Time Series”, 2022-02-07 (; similar)
“Dream Interpretation from a Cognitive and Cultural Evolutionary Perspective: The Case of Oneiromancy in Traditional China”, 2022
“Dream Interpretation from a Cognitive and Cultural Evolutionary Perspective: The Case of Oneiromancy in Traditional China”, 2022-01-23 (; similar; bibliography)
“M5 Accuracy Competition: Results, Findings, and Conclusions”, Et Al 2022
“M5 accuracy competition: Results, findings, and conclusions”, 2022-01-11 (; similar; bibliography)
“Megastudies Improve the Impact of Applied Behavioural Science”, Et Al 2021
“Megastudies improve the impact of applied behavioural science”, 2021-12-08 (; similar; bibliography)
“Forecasting Skills in Experimental Markets: Illusion or Reality?”, Et Al 2021
“Forecasting Skills in Experimental Markets: Illusion or Reality?”, 2021-11-05 (; similar)
“Strategically Overconfident (to a Fault): How Self-promotion Motivates Advisor Confidence”, 2021
“Strategically overconfident (to a fault): How self-promotion motivates advisor confidence”, 2021-11-01 (; similar)
“Sigmoids Behaving Badly: Why They Usually Cannot Predict the Future as well as They Seem to Promise”, Et Al 2021
“Sigmoids behaving badly: why they usually cannot predict the future as well as they seem to promise”, 2021-09-09 (similar)
“Wise Teamwork: Collective Confidence Calibration Predicts the Effectiveness of Group Discussion”, 2021
“Wise teamwork: Collective confidence calibration predicts the effectiveness of group discussion”, 2021-09-01 (similar)
“Alignment Problems With Current Forecasting Platforms”, 2021
“Alignment Problems With Current Forecasting Platforms”, 2021-06-21 (; backlinks; similar)
“Behavioral Scientists and Laypeople Misestimate Societal Effects of COVID-19”, Et Al 2021
“Behavioral scientists and laypeople misestimate societal effects of COVID-19”, 2021-03-26 (; backlinks; similar)
“How the Wisdom of Crowds, and of the Crowd Within, Are Affected by Expertise”, 2021
“How the wisdom of crowds, and of the crowd within, are affected by expertise”, 2021-02-05 (; similar)
“Kaggle Forecasting Competitions: An Overlooked Learning Opportunity”, 2020
“Kaggle forecasting competitions: An overlooked learning opportunity”, 2020-09-16 (; backlinks; similar)
“Danny Hernandez on Forecasting and the Drivers of AI Progress”, Et Al 2020
“Danny Hernandez on forecasting and the drivers of AI progress”, 2020-05-22 (; similar)
“AI and Efficiency: We’re Releasing an Analysis Showing That Since 2012 the Amount of Compute Needed to Train a Neural Net to the Same Performance on ImageNet Classification Has Been Decreasing by a Factor of 2 Every 16 Months”, 2020
“AI and Efficiency: We’re releasing an analysis showing that since 2012 the amount of compute needed to train a neural net to the same performance on ImageNet classification has been decreasing by a factor of 2 every 16 months”, 2020-05-05 (; backlinks; similar)
“LightGBM: A Highly Efficient Gradient Boosting Decision Tree”, Et Al 2019
“LightGBM: A Highly Efficient Gradient Boosting Decision Tree”, 2019-09-04 (; backlinks; similar)
“Predicting History”, Et Al 2019
“Predicting History”, 2019-06-03 (; backlinks; similar)
“N-BEATS: Neural Basis Expansion Analysis for Interpretable Time Series Forecasting”, Et Al 2019
“N-BEATS: Neural basis expansion analysis for interpretable time series forecasting”, 2019-05-24 (; backlinks; similar)
“Evidence on Good Forecasting Practices from the Good Judgment Project”, Impacts 2019
“Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project”, 2019-02-15 (backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Forecasting Transformative AI: An Expert Survey”, Et Al 2019
“Forecasting Transformative AI: An Expert Survey”, 2019-01-24 (; backlinks; similar)
“The Wisdom of Crowds Approach to Influenza-Rate Forecasting”, Et Al 2018
“The Wisdom of Crowds Approach to Influenza-Rate Forecasting”, 2018-11-09 (similar)
“Predicting Replication Outcomes in the Many Labs 2 Study”, Et Al 2018
“Predicting replication outcomes in the Many Labs 2 study”, 2018-10-25 (; backlinks; similar)
“The Wisdom of the Inner Crowd in Three Large Natural Experiments”, 2017
“The wisdom of the inner crowd in three large natural experiments”, 2017-12-11 (backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts”, Et Al 2017
“When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts”, 2017-05-24 (; similar)
“DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting With Autoregressive Recurrent Networks”, Et Al 2017
“DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks”, 2017-04-13 (; backlinks; similar)
“Long Bets As Charitable Giving Opportunity”, 2017
“Long Bets as Charitable Giving Opportunity”, 2017-02-24 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Embryo Selection For Intelligence”, 2016
“Embryo Selection For Intelligence”, 2016-01-22 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Looking Across and Looking Beyond the Knowledge Frontier: Intellectual Distance, Novelty, and Resource Allocation in Science”, Et Al 2016
“Looking Across and Looking Beyond the Knowledge Frontier: Intellectual Distance, Novelty, and Resource Allocation in Science”, 2016-01-08 (; backlinks; similar)
“Technology Forecasting: The Garden of Forking Paths”, 2014
“Technology Forecasting: The Garden of Forking Paths”, 2014-06-01 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Complexity No Bar to AI”, 2014
“Complexity no Bar to AI”, 2014-06-01 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Darknet Market Mortality Risks”, 2013
“Darknet Market mortality risks”, 2013-10-30 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Mechanical Versus Clinical Data Combination in Selection and Admissions Decisions: A Meta-Analysis”, Et Al 2013
“Mechanical Versus Clinical Data Combination in Selection and Admissions Decisions: A Meta-Analysis”, 2013-09-16 (; similar; bibliography)
“Predicting Google Closures”, 2013
“Predicting Google closures”, 2013-03-28 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns 2013”, Et Al 2013
“Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2013”, 2013-02-01 (; backlinks)
“Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress”, Et Al 2012
“Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress”, 2012-11-19 (; backlinks; similar)
“‘HP: Methods of Rationality’ Review Statistics”, 2012
“‘HP: Methods of Rationality’ review statistics”, 2012-11-03 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“LSD Microdosing RCT”, 2012
“LSD microdosing RCT”, 2012-08-20 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“‘Methods of Rationality’ Predictions”, 2012
“‘Methods of Rationality’ predictions”, 2012-03-25 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Learning Performance of Prediction Markets With Kelly Bettors”, Et Al 2012
“Learning Performance of Prediction Markets with Kelly Bettors”, 2012-01-31 (; similar)
“NGE Rebuild Predictions”, 2011
“NGE Rebuild Predictions”, 2011-03-03 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“A Prediction Market for Macro-Economic Variables”, Et Al 2011
“A Prediction Market for Macro-Economic Variables”, 2011-01-04 (; similar)
“Why Do Humans Reason? Arguments for an Argumentative Theory”, 2011
“Zeo Sleep Self-experiments”, 2010
“Zeo sleep self-experiments”, 2010-12-28 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“The Ones Who Walk Towards Acre”, 2010
“The Ones Who Walk Towards Acre”, 2010-12-21 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Goodbye 2010”, 2010
“Goodbye 2010”, 2010-10-10 (; backlinks; similar)
“About This Website”, 2010
“About This Website”, 2010-10-01 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Applying the Fermi Estimation Technique to Business Problems”, 2010
“Applying the Fermi Estimation Technique to Business Problems”, 2010-03-01 (backlinks; similar)
“Nootropics”, 2010
“Nootropics”, 2010-01-02 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Predicting the Next Big Thing: Success As a Signal of Poor Judgment”, 2010
“Summers of Code, 2006–2013”, 2009
“Summers of Code, 2006–2013”, 2009-02-11 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Keep Your Identity Small”, 2009
“Keep Your Identity Small”, 2009-02 (; backlinks; similar)
“Wikipedia & Knol: Why Knol Already Failed”, 2009
“Wikipedia & Knol: Why Knol Already Failed”, 2009-01-21 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“In Defense of Inclusionism”, 2009
“In Defense of Inclusionism”, 2009-01-15 (; backlinks; similar; bibliography)
“Choosing Software”, 2008
“Choosing Software”, 2008-09-26 (; backlinks; similar)
“Measuring the Crowd Within: Probabilistic Representations Within Individuals”, 2008
“Measuring the Crowd Within: Probabilistic Representations Within Individuals”, 2008-07 (backlinks; similar)
“The Meta-Analysis of Clinical Judgment Project: 56 Years of Accumulated Research on Clinical Versus Statistical Prediction”, Ægisdóttir Et Al 2006
“The Meta-Analysis of Clinical Judgment Project: 56 Years of Accumulated Research on Clinical Versus Statistical Prediction”, 2006-05-01 (; backlinks; similar)
“A Systematic Review on Communicating With Patients about Evidence”, Et Al 2005
“A systematic review on communicating with patients about evidence”, 2005-07-22 (; similar)
“Expert Opinions in Forecasting: the Role of the Delphi Technique”
“Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners”, 2001
“Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners”, 2001 (backlinks; similar)
“Who Is Arguing About the Cat? Moral Action and Enlightenment According to Dōgen”, 1997
“Who Is Arguing About the Cat? Moral Action and Enlightenment According to Dōgen”, 1997-07 (; backlinks; similar)
“The Impact of Task Characteristics on the Performance of Structured Group Forecasting Techniques”
“Eliminating the Hindsight Bias”, Et Al 1988
“Eliminating the Hindsight Bias”, 1988-05 (; backlinks; similar)
“Forecasting Records by Maximum Likelihood”, 1988
“Forecasting Records by Maximum Likelihood”, 1988 (; similar)
“Self-Prediction: Exploring the Parameters of Accuracy”
“Fault Trees: Sensitivity of Estimated Failure Probabilities to Problem Representation”, Fischhoff & Al 1978
“The Futurists”, 1972
“The Futurists”, 1972
“Tales from Prediction Markets”
“Using Learning Curve Theory to Redefine Moore’s Law”
Wikipedia
Miscellaneous
-
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/H7xWzvwvkyywDAEkL/creating-a-database-for-base-rates -
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/12/shiller-on-trills.html -
https://predictingpolitics.com/2021/01/09/mining-the-silver-lining-of-the-trump-presidency/ -
https://www.cold-takes.com/the-track-record-of-futurists-seems-fine/ -
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6tErqpd2tDcpiBrX9/why-sigmoids-are-so-hard-to-predict -
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MSpfFBCQYw3YA8kMC/violating-the-emh-prediction-markets -
https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/how-accurate-are-our-predictions/
Link Bibliography
-
https://arxiv.org/abs/2207.05221#anthropic: “Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know”, : -
2022-gelman.pdf: “ “Two Truths and a Lie” As a Class-participation Activity”, Andrew Gelman: -
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SbAgRYo8tkHwhd9Qx/deepmind-the-podcast-excerpts-on-agi: “DeepMind: The Podcast—Excerpts on AGI”, William Kiely: -
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2115126119: “A 680,000-person Megastudy of Nudges to Encourage Vaccination in Pharmacies”, : -
2022-hong.pdf: “Dream Interpretation from a Cognitive and Cultural Evolutionary Perspective: The Case of Oneiromancy in Traditional China”, Ze Hong: -
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207021001874: “M5 Accuracy Competition: Results, Findings, and Conclusions”, Spyros Makridakis, Evangelos Spiliotis, Vassilios Assimakopoulos: -
2021-milkman.pdf: “Megastudies Improve the Impact of Applied Behavioural Science”, : -
https://aiimpacts.org/evidence-on-good-forecasting-practices-from-the-good-judgment-project-an-accompanying-blog-post/: “Evidence on Good Forecasting Practices from the Good Judgment Project”, AI Impacts: -
2017-vandolder.pdf: “The Wisdom of the Inner Crowd in Three Large Natural Experiments”, Dennie van Dolder, Martijn J. van den Assem: -
long-bets: “Long Bets As Charitable Giving Opportunity”, Gwern Branwen: -
embryo-selection: “Embryo Selection For Intelligence”, Gwern Branwen: -
forking-path: “Technology Forecasting: The Garden of Forking Paths”, Gwern Branwen: -
complexity: “Complexity No Bar to AI”, Gwern Branwen: -
dnm-survival: “Darknet Market Mortality Risks”, Gwern Branwen: -
2013-kuncel.pdf: “Mechanical Versus Clinical Data Combination in Selection and Admissions Decisions: A Meta-Analysis”, Nathan R. Kuncel, David M. Klieger, Brian S. Connelly, Deniz S. Ones: -
google-shutdown: “Predicting Google Closures”, Gwern Branwen: -
hpmor: “‘HP: Methods of Rationality’ Review Statistics”, Gwern Branwen: -
lsd-microdosing: “LSD Microdosing RCT”, Gwern Branwen: -
hpmor-prediction: “‘Methods of Rationality’ Predictions”, Gwern Branwen: -
otaku-prediction: “NGE Rebuild Predictions”, Gwern Branwen: -
zeo: “Zeo Sleep Self-experiments”, Gwern Branwen: -
acre: “The Ones Who Walk Towards Acre”, Gwern Branwen: -
about: “About This Website”, Gwern Branwen: -
nootropics: “Nootropics”, Gwern Branwen: -
summer-of-code: “Summers of Code, 2006–2013”, Gwern Branwen: -
wikipedia-and-knol: “Wikipedia & Knol: Why Knol Already Failed”, Gwern Branwen: -
inclusionism: “In Defense of Inclusionism”, Gwern Branwen: