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forecasting tag

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“Long Bets As Charitable Giving Opportunity”, Gwern 2017

“Long Bets as Charitable Giving Opportunity”

“Embryo Selection For Intelligence”, Gwern 2016

“Embryo Selection For Intelligence”

“Complexity No Bar to AI”, Gwern 2014

“Complexity no Bar to AI”

“Technology Forecasting: The Garden of Forking Paths”, Gwern 2014

“Technology Forecasting: The Garden of Forking Paths”

“Darknet Market Mortality Risks”, Gwern 2013

“Darknet Market mortality risks”

“Predicting Google Closures”, Gwern 2013

“Predicting Google closures”

“‘HP: Methods of Rationality’ Review Statistics”, Gwern 2012

“‘HP: Methods of Rationality’ review statistics”

“LSD Microdosing RCT”, Gwern 2012

“LSD microdosing RCT”

“‘Methods of Rationality’ Predictions”, Gwern 2012

“‘Methods of Rationality’ predictions”

“NGE Rebuild Predictions”, Gwern 2011

“NGE Rebuild Predictions”

“Zeo Sleep Self-experiments”, Gwern 2010

“Zeo sleep self-experiments”

“The Ones Who Walk Towards Acre”, Gwern 2010

“The Ones Who Walk Towards Acre”

“About This Website”, Gwern 2010

“About This Website”

“Nootropics”, Gwern 2010


“Summers of Code, 2006-2013”, Gwern 2009

“Summers of Code, 2006-2013”

“Wikipedia & Knol: Why Knol Already Failed”, Gwern 2009

“Wikipedia & Knol: Why Knol Already Failed”

“In Defense of Inclusionism”, Gwern 2009

“In Defense of Inclusionism”

“Choosing Software”, Gwern 2008

“Choosing Software”