NGE Rebuild Predictions

Gwern Branwen

a comprehensive taxonomy of predictions on future Evangelion media

2011-03-03–2013-02-05 in progress certainty: log importance: 1 backlinks similar bibliography

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Justification/preface
- Evas
  - Eva 01
  - Eva 02
  - Eva 05
  - Eva 06
  - Eva 07
  - Eva 08
  - MP Evas
Characters
- Keel
- Touji
- Mari
- Shinji
- Asuka
- Rei
  - Plot
- Kaji
  - Plot
- Gendo
  - Plot
- Kaworu
  - Backstory
  - Plot
- Ritsuko
- Fuyutsuki
General
- Plot
  - What Is Rebuild Anyway?
- Manga
Real World
- Businesses
- Work Details
  - Length
  - Titles
  - Release Dates
    - Movies
    - Manga
  - Live Action
- Dramatis Personae

Justification/preface

background on difficult predictions: original

argument for utility (see also Prediction markets): original

Evas

Eva 01

Eva 01 will be upgraded to/redesignated Eva 07 original 25% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3686
Eva 01 will be upgraded to/redesignated Eva 08 original original 25% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3687

Eva 02

In 3.0, Eva 02 will be operational & battle-ready 90% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3688
In 3.0, Eva 02 will be operational & battle-ready, and used in battle against either Angels or another Eva 85% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3689
In 3.0, Eva 02 will be nonoperational 25% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3690
In 3.0, Eva 02 will be scrapped 10% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3691
In 3.0, Eva 02 will be under repairs at/during the beginning original 65% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3692
In 3.0, Eva 02 will be piloted at some point by Mari original 50% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3693

MP Evas

The MP Evas will appear in 3.0 or 4.0 70% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3681

Characters

Keel

Lorenz Keel is the Pope original 1% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3342

Touji

Screentime:

Touji will be featured significantly in 3.0 35% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3343
Touji will be featured significantly in 4.0 20% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3344

Plot:

Touji will pilot an Eva original 30% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3346
- Touji will pilot an Eva against the Mass Production Evas in 3.0 or 4.0, contingent on the MP Evas appearing 25% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3347

Mari

Backstory

Mari is the daughter of Asuka & Shinji from an ‘original’ EoE-verse original 3% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3673

Mari’s goals and alignment are murky (perhaps because even Khara has no idea what she’s supposed to do, per the CRC):

Mari is conspiring with Kaji 85% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3674
Mari is working for SEELE 25% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3675
- Mari is working for SEELE & is the head of SEELE 1% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3676
Mari is working for herself/an otherwise unknown conspiracy/group original 50% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3677
- Mari is working for herself/an otherwise unknown conspiracy/group which is opposed to NERV & SEELE’s plans original 40% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3678
- Mari is working for herself/an otherwise unknown conspiracy/group which is opposed to just SEELE’s plans & has links to Gendo original 30% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3679
Mari is really working for a NERV branch 25% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3680

Ontological Status

There certainly has been a lot of speculation on what Mari is:

Mari is a straight metaphysically normal human and nothing else original 35% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3662
Mari is a clone of Naoko Akagi original 1% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3663
Mari is an animal/human hybrid 4% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3664
Mari is an angel/human hybrid 50% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3665
Mari is an Eva 2% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3666
Mari is an Eva and specifically Eva-07 original 1% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3667
Mari is part-Russian or has connections to Russia 10% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3668
Mari is some sort of ‘False Child’ which has covertly replaced another one original 5% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3669
Mari is actually Asuka Soryu Langley in some sense 8% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3670
Mari is actually a disguised Asuka Soryu Langley original 4% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3671
Mari is actually an autonomous part of Asuka Soryu Langley, with Asuka Shikinami being the other half original 3% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3672

Plot

In 3.0, Mari will attend school as a regular student original 35% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3661

At some point in the last 2 movies Mari will say ‘anta baka?’ 45% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3659

At some point in the last 2 movies Mari will appear in EoE-style eye/arm bandages 50% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3660

Mari marked for death by SEELE at some point original 50% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3658

Mari will not survive past the 50 minute mark in 3.0 original 20% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3657

a Mari x Shinji ending original 5% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3656

Shinji

Shinji is a full Angel a la Re-Take (not a human-angel hybrid) original 15% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3654

Shinji will kill Gendo original 20% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3655

Shinji will die, permanently, and not transcend or continue to exist in some sense original 25% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3702

Asuka

Asuka will pilot an Eva against the MP Evas in 3.0 or 4.0, contingent on MP Evas appearing 75% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3653

Ontological Status

Current biology:

Asuka Shikinami is now a human/angel hybrid 65% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3650
Asuka Shikinami is now a human/angel hybrid and the angel infection takes her over 20% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3651
Asuka Shikinami is now a human/angel hybrid and the angel infection takes her over and Shinji is forced to kill her original 10% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3652

Backstory

Conception/biology:

Asuka is a test-tube baby, similar to the manga backstory 25% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3339
Asuka is a genetically modified human original 20% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3340
Asuka Shikinami is a clone of another Asuka original 40% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3341

Plot

Asuka will be employed by SEELE against NERV or Shinji 30% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3649

Asuka vs. Shinji death-fight original 25% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3648

3.0 Asuka will pilot Eva unit-06; it will go to Terminal Dogma and Asuka will beg Shinji to kill her original 15% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/2637

Asuka Shikinami is a clone of another Asuka and Shikinami is then disposed of original 20% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3647

3.0 Asuka has no recollection of anything and will call herself “Asuka Langley Soryu” original 15% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3646

Asuka will appear little after 2.0 and have an unimportant off-screen death original 10% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3645

Asuka will have more screentime in 3.0 than in 2.0 (as measured by length in seconds of scenes involving her) 40% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3642

Asuka’s surname’s change to Shikinami will receive no in-universe explanation 35% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3640 Asuka’s surname’s change to Shikinami will receive an in-universe explanation and will pertain to Second Impact/the four FARs in Misato’s 2.0 flashback 50% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3641

In 3.0, Asuka will have been promoted 50% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3638 In 3.0, Asuka will have been promoted to major original 40% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3639

In 3.0, Asuka will not remember the Matsushiro incident of 2.0 original 30% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3637

The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Asuka 20% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3635 The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Asuka, under her eye-patch original 18% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3636

Any Instrumentality/Third Impact in 3.0 or 4.0 will focus on Asuka rather than Shinji (as measured by seconds of screentime) original 25% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3634

Asuka & Shinji will kiss original 70% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3632 Asuka & Shinji will kiss and the kiss will be initiated by Shinji (rather than Asuka as in NGE TV) original original 45% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3633

Contingent upon there being a strangulation scene similar to EoE, Asuka will strangle Shinji original 30% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3631

Asuka x Shinji ending original 70% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3630

Rei

Plot

‘Giant naked Rei’ will rise again from the LCL sea during Instrumentality/Third Impact 50% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3629

Rei will destroy the other Rei clones original 25% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3628

What will come of Rei, merged with Shinji at the end of 2.0?

Rei & Shinji will remained merged in 3.0 original 20% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3626
Rei & Shinji will remained merged in 3.0 and will look like Rei (dressed in the AU uniform, as seen in first 3.0 preview) 10% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3627
Rei & Shinji will exit EVA-01 in 3.0 as separate beings original 80% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3624
Rei & Shinji will exit EVA-01 in 3.0 as separate beings and the SDAT player will be with them in some respect 70% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3625

A Rei x Shinji ending original 20% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3622

Kaji

Plot

Sadly for Kaji, the most interesting questions are:

When will he die?
- Kaji will die after Armisael 50% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3601
- Misato will die before Kaji does original 20% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3602
- Kaji will die before Misato 80% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3603
- Kaji will die before Misato and in her arms original 40% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3604
Who will kill or be killed?
- Kaji’s killer (if any) will be shown clearly, on-screen, and not off-screen original 50% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3600
- Kaji will kill Misato original 5% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3599

Gendo

Plot

The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Gendo 60% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3595 The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Gendo, in his hand 55% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3596

Gendo’s travels (3.0 preview indicates they are abroad):

Gendo & Fuyutsuki are traveling in the Dead Sea in 3.0 20% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3594
Gendo and Fuyutsuki go to Jerusalem in 3.0 original 10% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3597
Gendo and Fuyutsuki go to Jerusalem in 3.0 and there they use the Key of Nebuchadnezzar to unleash something that would either save the world or destroy it. original 5% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3598

Gendo will, in person, physically attack Shinji in 3.0 original 50% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3593

Gendo’s ultimate goal in 4.0 will not be to reunite with Yui, but to turn her into a god-like entity original 4% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3592

Yui will separate from Eva-01 and be physically human at some point original 15% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3591

Gendo will die protecting Shinji in some sense original 30% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3590

Kaworu

Backstory

Origin; Rei came from Yui & Lilith, yes, but Kaworu?

Kaworu’s body is derived in some fashion from Misato (such as DNA) original 10% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3380
Gendo is Kaworu’s genetic father 30% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3385
Kaworu knew Shinji during childhood 70% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3381
- and his comment about happiness refers to being unable to comfort Shinji after Yui died original 45% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3382
- when Shinji met some form of Adam/Kaworu, accidentally causing Second Impact original 20% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3383

Plot

Kaworu will be renamed 35% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3588 Kaworu will be renamed to “Kaworu Nagisanami” original 25% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3589

Kaworu will again be faced with a choice between committing suicide or killing humanity original 70% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3586 Kaworu will again be faced with a choice between committing suicide or killing humanity and will not choose suicide original 30% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3587

Kaworu will kill a kitten original 35% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3585

Kaworu will kill an Angel original 60% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3584

Ritsuko

How will Ritsuko Akagi die?

Ritsuko will commit suicide 20% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3575
Ritsuko will commit suicide by shooting herself in the head original 5% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3576
Ritsuko will commit suicide by jumping off the bridge 3% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3577
Ritsuko will be shot by Gendo (again) 50% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3578

Fuyutsuki

Kozo Fuyutsuki dies (before Third Impact/Instrumentality) original 30% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3574

General

Mediums will include live-action like EoE:

There will be live-action 40% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/4166
The live-action, if any, will be in 4.0 70% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/4165

A version of the song “Komm, süsser Tod” will be used in Rebuild: https://predictionbook.com/predictions/5809

The fourth wall will be broken by:

a character 50% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/8002
some form of Hideaki Anno 20% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/8003

Plot

How will 3.0 open?

3.0 will open with a scene that has “something to do with Asuka’s mental journey from Bardiel’s contamination to waking up on the slab” original 30% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/2653
3.0 will open with a flashback to entry plug test/Yui being absorbed into Unit 0.1 original 10% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/2654
3.0 will open in the beginning/middle of an Angel attack like 2.0 40% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3573

There will be no Third Impact original original 40% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3572

In 4.0, there will be an epilogue set years later original 35% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3571

“Arael attacks the sequestered NERV personnel with a wide beam, providing for a mindfuckery exposition scene featuring the other adults finally.” original 5% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3570

The entity in Terminal Dogma is still Lilith (of NGE TV) in some sense original 95% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3569

The 4 pilots (Shinji, Asuka, Mari, Rei) each have a piece of Adam’s soul in addition to their own, with Kaworu having the main piece original 25% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3566

The Key of Nebuchadnezzar:

The key of Nebuchadnezzar is a seed of life 70% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3567
The key of Nebuchadnezzar is a seed of life & the original Adam reduced to embryonic form (akin to NGE TV) 65% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3568
The Key of Nebuchadnezzar is neither a Lance nor Seed of Life, but a literal key which activates some piece of FAR technology original 40% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3564

The coffins on the moon each contain or contained an Angel. 95% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3563

The Final Angel is EoE-Shogoki (and not Kaworu) original 5% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3565

There are more than 2 white/black moons involved 45% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3561
There are precisely 4 white/black moons, 1 for each FAR depicted in flashbacks to 2I 35% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3562

The First Ancestral Race will be mentioned by name in Rebuild. 50% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3318

The First Ancestral Race will reveal themselves and will come to Earth personally in 3.0 to punish Rei-Shinji/Shogoki for trespassing into their domain of power. original 10% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3317

The four Children mentioned in the 3.0 preview turn out to be: Shinji, Mari, Kaworu and Asuka original 80% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3316

3.0 & 4.0 will deconstruct Shinji’s heroism and reveal it to be a sham a la Norman Spinrad’s The Iron Dream original 20% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3315

By the end of 4.0, the Earth’s oceans will be blue (and full of life) and not red & lifeless original original 35% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3314

4.0 will end on or near a blue wave shot to parallel the red wave shot that opened 1.0, and ended EoE original 15% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3313

Shinji will masturbate to Asuka at some point during Rebuild 10% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3285

What Is Rebuild Anyway?

Rebuild is a parallel universe:

Rebuild is an alternate universe(s) to NGE TV or EoE, possibly in the Everett multiverse sense original 5% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3311
Rebuild is an alternate universe(s) to NGE TV or EoE, but each universe is causally connected (by Kaworu or Shinji or another character) 5% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3312

Rebuild is a sequel:

Rebuild is a sequel to a previous NGE work 2% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3307
- Rebuild is a sequel to EoE 1% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3308
- Rebuild is a sequel to EoTV 1% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3309
Rebuild is a sequel to itself (time-loop) 10% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3310

Rebuild is a dream:

a dream in EoE
- NGE: Rebuild is a dream/possible-world during EoE 3% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3304
- NGE: Rebuild is a dream/possible-world during EoE of Shinji 2% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3305
- NGE: Rebuild is a dream/possible-world during EoE of Asuka 1% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3306
a dream in NGE TV
- Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV 2% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3299
- Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV by Asuka while being mind-raped original 1% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3300
- Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV by Asuka while sedated original 1% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3301
- Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV by Misato original 0% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3302
- Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV by Rei or Kaworu original 0% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3303

Manga

Ending:

Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as EoE 26% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3293
Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as the NGE64 variant of EoE 26% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3294
Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as Rebuild 26% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3295
Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as EoTV 10% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3296
Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as Last A 5% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3297
Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as Last B 5% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3298
Eva manga will conclude as Rei x Shinji 15% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3623
Eva manga will conclude with no Third Impact 15% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/2635 original
- Shinji will save Asuka from MP Evas, there will be no Third Impact, and everyone lives happily ever after original 10% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/2891
Shinji and/or Asuka will defeat the MP Evas 50% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/2630
Asuka will die in Stage 86 or 87 20%: https://predictionbook.com/predictions/2883 FALSE
NGE: Sadamoto’s Eva manga, Asuka will try to go berserk and will be killed by the MPEs; Third Impact subsequently starts 40% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3286
Third Impact will be controlled by/center around Asuka 5% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/2631

Real World

Businesses

Gainax will ‘fail in 2-3 years [from 2010]’ 10% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3230
Studio Khara will be dissolved or substantially cease operations after completing Rebuild. 35% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3281
Both 3.0 and 4.0 will be released in the US by Funimation 90% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3284

Work Details

There will be a fifth movie (an animation >40min) after 4.0. 5% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3289

Length

3.0 will not be longer than 60 minutes 15% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3290 4.0 will not be longer than 60 minutes 20% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3291 Neither 3.0 nor 4.0 will be longer than 60 minutes https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3292

Titles

3.0 will be titled “You Can (Not) Die” 15% original https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3287
3.0 will be titled “You Can (Not) Be Replaced” 10% original https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3288
4.0 will be titled “” 10% original https://predictionbook.com/predictions/5057

Release Dates

NGE TV will be released on Bluray:

in 2013 10% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/8128
in 2014 25% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/8129
in 2015 50% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/8130

EoE will be released on Bluray

in 2013: 5% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/8131
in 2014: 20% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/8132
in 2015: 45% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/8133

Movies

3.0 will be released in 2011 0% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3273
3.0 will be released in 2012 (1.0 = September 2007, 2.0 = July 2009, 2.0 slipped by 1.5 years) 80% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3274
3.0 will be released in 2013 15% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3275
3.0 will be released in 2014 5% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3276
4.0 will be released in 2012 5% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3277
4.0 will be released in 2013 30% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3278
4.0 will be released in 2014 50% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3279
4.0 will be released in 2015 15% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3280

Manga

Yoshiyuki Sadamoto will release > = 9 stages of the Evangelion manga in 2011 4% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/2249
Yoshiyuki Sadamoto will release 5-8 stages of the Evangelion manga in 2011 60% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/2248
Yoshiyuki Sadamoto will release 3-5 stages of the Evangelion manga in 2011 30% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/2247
Yoshiyuki Sadamoto will release 0-2 stages of the Evangelion manga in 2011 5% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/2246
Yoshiyuki Sadamoto’s Evangelion manga will be finished sometime in 2011 10% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/2253
Yoshiyuki Sadamoto’s Evangelion manga will be finished sometime in 2012 60% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/2254
Yoshiyuki Sadamoto’s Evangelion manga will be finished sometime in 2013 15% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/2255
Yoshiyuki Sadamoto’s Evangelion manga will be finished sometime in 2014 10% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/2256
Yoshiyuki Sadamoto’s Evangelion manga: After stage 87, there will be 3 more stages, for a final manga volume consisting of 6 stages 50% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3270

Live Action

There will not be a live-action Evangelion movie before 2015 85% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3271
There will not be a live-action Evangelion movie before 2020 77% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3272

Dramatis Personae

Anno will return to employment at Gainax after Rebuild. 30% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3282
Anno will return to employment at Gainax and also to the Gainax board of directors after Rebuild. 25% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3283

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