‘Methods of Rationality’ predictions
Recording fan speculation for retrospectives
Sources for predictions: PredictionBook.com, LessWrong, & TvTropes. For background on making predictions, see Prediction markets.
Publication
Awards
Hugo:
Completion
Out of universe:
In universe, complete during Harry’s:
Reviews:
2012
Eliezer will publish:
Ch 78
Plot
Chapters
Ch 21
The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to:
-
~
Harry~ (see chapter 89)
Ch 45
The hint is about…
Ch 81
Harry’s solution will be…
-
invoking Lucius’s debt to whomever killed his supposed Imperiuser -
invoke the Imperius-debts of other Wizengamot members -
make Dumbledore turn himself in to Lucius in exchange for Hermione’s freedom -
reveal the truth about Bellatrix’s escape -
offer the Wizengamot Voldemort’s true identity (Quirrel) -
accept Hermione’s imprisonment but order the Dementors to leave her alone -
-
to alter Hermione’s testimony to something easily falsifiable -
to affect Lucius in some way -
to smuggle Hermione out under the Cloak
-
-
ask for a trial by combat -
have Quirrel make Bella confess to the crime -
demonstrate Hermione’s wand did not cast the curse with Priori Incantatem
Ch 85
by ch85:
Ch 89
Ch 90
Magic
-
Harry’s blood/Atlantis/origin-of-magic theory is basically wrong
-
someone will be mentioned or shown using the Imperius curse on themselves (or consenting to another’s use on them) to supplement their willpower (dieting, working hard, etc.)
-
the ritual ch74 alluded to in ch74 to summon Death summons a dementor
and will be used
Objects
Azkaban Island is the last remnant of Atlantis
The purpose of the golden wibblers device in Dumbledore’s office will be revealed before 2017
Horcruxes
-
5 Voldemort Horcruxes are where Harry suggested putting hidden things in ch46
-
There are >7 Voldemort Horcruxes
Stone
The Philosopher’s Stone…
-
to be mass-manufactured by Harry or at his behest
-
will be somehow obtained by Harry at Quirrel’s manipulation
Hallows
Deathly Hallows:
-
A Deathly Hallow besides the Cloak will appear in the possession of a character in the present-day at some point
-
the Elder Wand is already (ch83) in the possession of a character
-
and it is Dumbledore
-
and it is Quirrel
-
Diary
Bacon’s diary is
-
both Voldemort and Roger Bacon’s diary
-
a diary with indefinite owners but no intrinsic magical properties
Map
The constant glitch in the Marauder’s Map is
-
Quirrel appearing as ‘the Defense Professor’
-
Quirrel appearing under another name (eg. ‘Tom Riddle’)
-
the spirit of Voldemort or Riddle
The intermittent glitch in the Marauder’s Map is
Creatures
Dementors
-
either copy minds or store souls for later resurrection
-
simply kill like anything else, death is death (cf. Death Note)
There will be at least one character whose Animagus form is another human
Events
The Peverell tombstone motto will be alluded to
Past
The original Quirrel was Voldemort’s master or teacher.
Lily Potter did not give Petunia a magic potion, but actually Imperius’ed her.
Lucius Malfoy was, at least initially, Imperiused into becoming a Death Eater
Prophecy & Attack
Voldemort:
-
Voldemort deliberately & voluntarily retired from being Dark Lord, after doing something else involving Harry
The Prophecy actually referred to Neville Longbottom and not Harry
The Prophecy is about Harry opposing Death, not Voldemort
Dumbledore deliberately arranged for Voldemort to learn of the Prophecy
The Prophecy as transmitted to Voldemort was faked, modified, altered, or incomplete
“The phrase “the very stars in heaven” in the prophecy refers to the Black family”
Rita Skeeter Hoaxing
Who did it?
-
-
and they used Polyjuice Potion to submit the hoax article under Rita Skeeter’s name
-
and they gave false memories via Memory Charm to Rita Skeeter
-
actually, Lockhart did
-
-
and they magically modified the memory of the witnesses Rita relied on to write the article
-
and they tricked her into writing down the story and then Obliviated her; she trusted her notes and published
-
Hermione Frame
was conducted by
-
Snape (10%)
-
Cloak & Hat (80%)
-
Dumbledore (5%)
-
Lucius Malfoy (5%)
-
no one, since Hermione did it (1%)
-
neither Quirrellmort, nor Snape, nor Dumbledore, nor Lucius, nor Hermione (10%)
Future
-
A ritual will restore Voldemort to a body
-
Harry will stay at Hogwarts during Easter and his parents will visit him
Characters
Dumbledore, Quirrel, Voldemort, Santa Claus, and Mr. Hat and Cloak are all the same person.
Romance
Harry romance:
Draco romance:
Harry
Harry is…
Harry’s disturbed sleep is a clue to some unrevealed secret (and not just a Time-turner excuse)
Future breakthroughs:
-
Harry will invent some form of ‘metamagic’ (eg. a self-replicating spell or magical construct/artifact)
-
Harry will create a superintelligent AI using magic or magical objects (anyone will create one)
-
and it won’t be Friendly, killing many/all
-
Harry will:
-
steal the Philosopher’s Stone at some point
-
~
use his control of Dementors and ability to disable others’ use of Patronus to be dictator ch90 or sooner~
Harry will become an Animagus who turns into
-
a creature which doesn’t age (eg. a basilisk)
-
a phoenix
-
a human
Hermione
conditional on humans being transformable into house elves, will be so transformed before chapter 85
-
was not False Memory-charmed at any point between chapter 60 and 83
-
Hermione will make a Horcrux chronologically before or during the events of ch89
-
her murder will be blamed by the general public on Lucius Malfoy
-
her body has been stolen by Harry
-
and her body has been transfigured into Harry’s ring (but not the diamond)
-
Quirrel
will:
-
have Hermione killed with Harry as a witness
is…
-
-
a younger version of Voldemort, a damaged backup from many years before (like the diary Riddle)
-
the fused personality of Voldemort + original Quirrel
-
the original Quirrel possessed by Voldemort (a la Philosopher’s Stone)
-
a Horcrux, as well as anything else
-
in the sense that he killed the original Voldemort & stole his role
-
and plans to manipulate Harry (already a Horcrux) into making a Harry-Horcrux of Quirrel so neither can ever die
believes that Harry’s stone is the Resurrection Stone
zombie-mode is about spending time at the Pioneer probe perspective
(the original) killed his parents
Dumbledore
The rock he gave Harry is or contains a real:
Voldemort
All Voldemort’s horcruxes except the Pioneer probe will be destroyed, and Voldemort is doomed to wander the cosmos forever
-
and this outcome will be either planned or permitted by Harry
Harry is a Horcrux and Voldemort knows this
Voldemort is Quirrel’s wand or is contained within it
Voldemort at some point was a disembodied spirit
The Malfoys
Draco
Lucius
Narcissa
-
by someone other than Dumbledore
-
by Voldemort
-
by her own hand
-
accidentally, eg. by Fiendfyre (analogous to Goyle)
-
-
by Amelia Bones
-
by Dumbledore’s hand and he killed her
-
because she was a Voldemort Horcrux
-
to send a message to the Death Eaters to stop attacking Order of the Phoenix relatives
“Cloak & Hat”
is…
-
Harry (future or present)
-
Helena Ravenclaw (the Grey Lady ghost)
-
someone possessed by or related to the spirit of Voldemort, but not Quirrel
has Obliviated Blaise Zabini’s mother
Peter Pettigrew
Bellatrix Black
Sirius Black
-
and the person in Azkaban is:
-
and is in Hogwarts
Gilderoy Lockhart
will be…
-
(conditional on appearance) competent and not conceited
-
(conditional on appearance) competent and conceited
Severus Snape
-
will go back to the dark side such as working for Voldemort
Sybil Trelawney
~will prophesy the unspoken ch63 prophecy within earshot of Harry~