- See Also
-
Links
- “A/B Interactions: A Call to Relax”, Research 2023
- “Attributing Agnostically Detected Large Reductions in Road CO2 Emissions to Policy Mixes”, Koch et al 2022
- “The Magnitude Heuristic: Larger Differences Increase Perceived Causality”, Daniels & Kupor 2022
- “Can Foundation Models Talk Causality?”, Willig et al 2022
- “Clarifying the Causes of Consistent and Inconsistent Findings in Genetics”, Dattani et al 2022
- “Sibling Comparison Studies”, Sjölander et al 2022
- “Residual Confounding in Health Plan Performance Assessments: Evidence From Randomization in Medicaid”, Wallace et al 2022
- “Learning Causal Overhypotheses through Exploration in Children and Computational Models”, Kosoy et al 2022
- “Megastudies Improve the Impact of Applied Behavioral Science”, Milkman et al 2021
- “Inducing Causal Structure for Interpretable Neural Networks (IIT)”, Geiger et al 2021
- “Providing a Lower-bound Estimate for Psychology’s ‘crud Factor’: The Case of Aggression”, Ferguson & Heene 2021
- “Testing the Structure of Human Cognitive Ability Using Evidence Obtained from the Impact of Brain Lesions over Abilities”, Protzko & Colom 2021
- “Is Coffee the Cause or the Cure? Conflicting Nutrition Messages in 2 Decades of Online New York Times’ Nutrition News Coverage”, Ihekweazu 2021
- “Causal Inference With Latent Treatments”, Fong & Grimmer 2021
- “Causal and Associational Linking Language From Observational Research and Health Evaluation Literature in Practice: A Systematic Language Evaluation”, Haber et al 2021
- “Common Elective Orthopaedic Procedures and Their Clinical Effectiveness: Umbrella Review of Level 1 Evidence”, Blom et al 2021
- “What Is Your Estimand? Defining the Target Quantity Connects Statistical Evidence to Theory”, Lundberg et al 2021
- “Regression To The Mean Fallacies”, Gwern 2021
- “The Revolution Will Be Hard to Evaluate: How Co-occurring Policy Changes Affect Research on the Health Effects of Social Policies”, Matthay et al 2021
- “The Piranha Problem: Large Effects Swimming in a Small Pond”, Tosh et al 2021
- “Interpolating Causal Mechanisms: The Paradox of Knowing More”, Stephan et al 2021
- “Quantifying Causality in Data Science With Quasi-experiments”, Liu et al 2021
- “Intelligence and General Psychopathology in the Vietnam Experience Study: A Closer Look”, Kirkegaard & Nyborg 2021
- “The Causal Foundations of Applied Probability and Statistics”, Greenland 2020
- “Objecting to Experiments Even While Approving of the Policies or Treatments They Compare”, Heck et al 2020
- “Commentary: Cynical Epidemiology”, Kaufman 2020
- “Rethinking Causation for Data-intensive Biology: Constraints, Cancellations, and Quantized Organisms: Causality in Complex Organisms Is Sculpted by Constraints rather than Instigators, With Outcomes Perhaps Better Described by Quantized Patterns Than Rectilinear Pathways”, Brash 2020
- “Health Recommendations and Selection in Health Behaviors”, Oster 2020
- “Exploring the Persome: The Power of the Item in Understanding Personality Structure”, Revelle et al 2020
- “Why the Increasing Use of Complex Causal Models Is a Problem: On the Danger Sophisticated Theoretical Narratives Pose to Truth”, Saylors & Trafimow 2020
- “Designing Agent Incentives to Avoid Reward Tampering”, Everitt et al 2019
- “Reward Tampering Problems and Solutions in Reinforcement Learning: A Causal Influence Diagram Perspective”, Everitt et al 2019
- “How Should We Critique Research?”, Gwern 2019
- “A Comparison of Approaches to Advertising Measurement: Evidence from Big Field Experiments at Facebook”, Gordon et al 2019
- “Effect of a Workplace Wellness Program on Employee Health and Economic Outcomes: A Randomized Clinical Trial”, Song & Baicker 2019
- “Correlation = Causation? Music Training, Psychology, and Neuroscience”, Schellenberg 2019
- “Why Scatter Plots Suggest Causality, and What We Can Do about It”, Bergstrom & West 2018
- “Causal Language and Strength of Inference in Academic and Media Articles Shared in Social Media (CLAIMS): A Systematic Review”, Haber et al 2018
- “Measuring Consumer Sensitivity to Audio Advertising: A Field Experiment on Pandora Internet Radio”, Huang et al 2018
- “A Combined Analysis of Genetically Correlated Traits Identifies 187 Loci and a Role for Neurogenesis and Myelination in Intelligence”, Hill et al 2018
- “Polygenic Prediction of the Phenome, across Ancestry, in Emerging Adulthood”, Docherty et al 2017
- “Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in Stable Angina (ORBITA): a Double-blind, Randomized Controlled Trial”, Al-Lamee et al 2017
- “Implicit Causal Models for Genome-wide Association Studies”, Tran & Blei 2017
- “The Surprising Implications of Familial Association in Disease Risk”, Valberg et al 2017
- “Bias and High-dimensional Adjustment in Observational Studies of Peer Effects”, Eckles & Bakshy 2017
- “Graphical Models for Quasi-experimental Designs”, Steiner et al 2017
- “Could a Neuroscientist Understand a Microprocessor?”, Jonas & Kording 2016
- “Redundancy, Unilateralism and Bias beyond GDP—results of a Global Index Benchmark”, Dill & Gebhart 2016
- “Agreement of Treatment Effects for Mortality from Routinely Collected Data and Subsequent Randomized Trials: Meta-epidemiological Survey”, Hemkens et al 2016
- “Shared Genetic Aetiology between Cognitive Functions and Physical and Mental Health in UK Biobank (n = 112,151) and 24 GWAS Consortia”, Hagenaars et al 2016
- “Beyond GDP? Welfare across Countries and Time”, Jones & Klenow 2016
- “The Unfavorable Economics of Measuring the Returns to Advertising”, Lewis & Rao 2015
- “Mendelian Randomization With Invalid Instruments: Effect Estimation and Bias Detection through Egger Regression (MR-Egger)”, Bowden et al 2015
- “Bounding a Linear Causal Effect Using Relative Correlation Restrictions”, Krauth 2015
- “When Correcting for Unreliability of Job Performance Ratings, the Best Estimate Is Still 0.52”, Shen et al 2014
- “The Mystery Machine: End-to-end Performance Analysis of Large-scale Internet Services”, Chow et al 2014
- “Everything Is Correlated”, Gwern 2014
- “Statistical Notes”, Gwern 2014
- “How Often Does Correlation=Causality?”, Gwern 2014
- “Why Correlation Usually ≠ Causation”, Gwern 2014
- “Movie Reviews”, Gwern 2014
- “Observational Studies Often Make Clinical Practice Recommendations: an Empirical Evaluation of Authors' Attitudes”, Prasad et al 2013
- “A Decade of Reversal: An Analysis of 146 Contradicted Medical Practices”, Prasad 2013
- “‘Story Of Your Life’ Is Not A Time-Travel Story”, Gwern 2012
- “The Iron Law Of Evaluation And Other Metallic Rules”, Rossi 2012
- “Correlation and Causation in the Study of Personality”, Lee 2012
- “Does Retail Advertising Work? Measuring the Effects of Advertising on Sales Via a Controlled Experiment on Yahoo”, Lewis & Reiley 2011
- “Here, There, and Everywhere: Correlated Online Behaviors Can Lead to Overestimates of the Effects of Advertising”, Lewis et al 2011
- “Deming, Data and Observational Studies”
- “The Possibility of Unmeasured Confounding Variables in Observational Studies: a Forgotten Fact?”, Byrd & Ho 2011
- “Overestimation of the Effects of Adherence on Outcomes: a Case Study in Healthy User Bias and Hypertension”, LaFleur et al 2011
- “The Replication Crisis: Flaws in Mainstream Science”, Gwern 2010
- “Causal Inference and Developmental Psychology”, Foster 2010
- “Causal Inference and Observational Research: The Utility of Twins”, McGue et al 2010
- “Association of Bisphenol A With Diabetes and Other Abnormalities”
- “Retrospectives Guinnessometrics: The Economic Foundation of ‘Student’s’ t”, Ziliak 2008
- “Systematic Reviews of Animal Experiments Demonstrate Poor Contributions Toward Human Healthcare”, Knight 2008
- “Clustered Environments and Randomized Genes: A Fundamental Distinction between Conventional and Genetic Epidemiology”, Smith et al 2007
- “Causal Inference in Multisensory Perception”, Körding et al 2007
- “How Close Is Close Enough? Evaluating Propensity Score Matching Using Data from a Class Size Reduction Experiment”, Wilde & Hollister 2007
- “Proceeding From Observed Correlation to Causal Inference: The Use of Natural Experiments”, Rutter 2007
- “Personality and the Prediction of Consequential Outcomes”, Ozer & Benet-Martínez 2006
- “Comparison of Evidence on Harms of Medical Interventions in Randomized and Nonrandomized Studies”, Papanikolaou et al 2006
- “Contradicted and Initially Stronger Effects in Highly Cited Clinical Research”, Ioannidis 2005
- “Looking to the 21st Century: Have We Learned from Our Mistakes, or Are We Doomed to Compound Them?”, Shapiro 2004
- “Testing Hypotheses about the Relationship between Cannabis Use and Psychosis”, Degenhardt et al 2003
- “Personal Reflections on Lessons Learned from Randomized Trials Involving Newborn Infants, 1951 to 1967”, Silverman 2003
- “Nonexperimental Replications of Social Experiments: A Systematic Review”, Glazerman et al 2002
- “Can Nonexperimental Comparison Group Methods Match the Findings from a Random Assignment Evaluation of Mandatory Welfare-to-Work Programs? MDRC Working Papers on Research Methodology”, Bloom et al 2002
- “It Pays to Be Ignorant: A Simple Political Economy of Rigorous Program Evaluation”, Pritchett 2002
- “Comparison of Evidence of Treatment Effects in Randomized and Nonrandomized Studies”, Ioannidis et al 2001
- “Crosstalk and Specificity in Signalling: Are We Crosstalking Ourselves into General Confusion?”, Dumont et al 2001
- “Storks Deliver Babies (p = 0.008)”, Matthews 2001
- “Study Design and Estimates of Effectiveness”, MacLehose et al 2000
- “Causal Effects in Nonexperimental Studies: Reevaluating the Evaluation of Training Programs”, Dehejia & Wahba 1999
- “Interpreting the Evidence: Choosing between Randomized and Non-randomised Studies”, McKee et al 1999
- “Superadditive Correlation”, Giraud et al 1999
- “Causality in Complex Systems”, Wagner 1999
- “Spurious Precision? Meta-analysis of Observational Studies”, Egger et al 1998
- “Who Goes First? The Story of Self-Experimentation in Medicine”, Altman 1998
- “Choosing Between Randomized and Non-randomised Studies”, Britton et al 1998
- “The Unpredictability Paradox: Review of Empirical Comparisons of Randomized and Non-randomised Clinical Trials”, Kunz & Oxman 1998
- “There Is a Time and a Place for Significance Testing”, Mulaik et al 1997
- “Evaluating Program Evaluations: New Evidence on Commonly Used Nonexperimental Methods”, Friedlander & Robins 1995
- “Inferring the Direction of Causation in Cross-sectional Twin Data: Theoretical and Empirical Considerations”, Duffy & Martin 1994
- “Testing Hypotheses about Direction of Causation Using Cross-sectional Family Data”, Heath et al 1993
- “Smoking As ‘independent’ Risk Factor for Suicide: Illustration of an Artifact from Observational Epidemiology?”, Smith et al 1992
- “Bias in Relative Odds Estimation owing to Imprecise Measurement of Correlated Exposures”, Phillips & Smith 1992
- “How Independent Are ‘independent’ Effects? Relative Risk Estimation When Correlated Exposures Are Measured Imprecisely”, Phillips & Smith 1991
- “Developing Improved Observational Methods for Evaluating Therapeutic Effectiveness”, Horwitz et al 1990
- “Memories of the British Streptomycin Trial in Tuberculosis: The First Randomized Trial”, Hill 1990
- “The Adequacy of Comparison Group Designs for Evaluations of Employment-Related Programs”, Fraker & Maynard 1987
- “Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs With Experimental Data”, LaLonde 1986
- “Why Do We Need Some Large, Simple Randomized Trials?”, Yusuf et al 1984
- “Essence of Statistics (Second Edition)”, Loftus & Loftus 1982
- “Heredity, Environment, & Personality: A Study of 850 Sets of Twins”, Loehlin & Nichols 1976
- “Theory Confirmation in Psychology”, Swoyer & Monson 1975
- “On the Alleged Falsity of the Null Hypothesis”, Oakes 1975
- “On Prior Probabilities of Rejecting Statistical Hypotheses”, Keuth 1973
- “A Computer Movie Simulating Urban Growth in the Detroit Region”, Tobler 1970
- “Use and Abuse of Regression”, Box 1966
- “Distributions of Correlation Coefficients in Economic Time Series”, Ames & Reiter 1961
- “The Fallacy Of The Null-Hypothesis Statistical-Significance Test”, Rozeboom 1960
- “Cigarettes, Cancer, And Statistics”, Fisher 1958
- “The Influence of ‘Statistical Methods for Research Workers’ on the Development of the Science of Statistics”, Yates 1951
- “‘Superstition’ in the Pigeon”, Skinner 1948
- “A New Measure of Introversion-Extroversion”, Evans & McConnell 1941
- “"Student" As Statistician”, Pearson 1939
- “Why Do We Sometimes Get Nonsense-Correlations between Time-Series?--A Study in Sampling and the Nature of Time-Series”
- “Force Concept Inventory”
- “The Initial Knowledge State of College Physics Students”
- Sort By Magic
- Wikipedia
- Miscellaneous
- Link Bibliography
See Also
Links
“A/B Interactions: A Call to Relax”, Research 2023
“Attributing Agnostically Detected Large Reductions in Road CO2 Emissions to Policy Mixes”, Koch et al 2022
“Attributing agnostically detected large reductions in road CO2 emissions to policy mixes”
“The Magnitude Heuristic: Larger Differences Increase Perceived Causality”, Daniels & Kupor 2022
“The Magnitude Heuristic: Larger Differences Increase Perceived Causality”
“Can Foundation Models Talk Causality?”, Willig et al 2022
“Clarifying the Causes of Consistent and Inconsistent Findings in Genetics”, Dattani et al 2022
“Clarifying the causes of consistent and inconsistent findings in genetics”
“Sibling Comparison Studies”, Sjölander et al 2022
“Residual Confounding in Health Plan Performance Assessments: Evidence From Randomization in Medicaid”, Wallace et al 2022
“Learning Causal Overhypotheses through Exploration in Children and Computational Models”, Kosoy et al 2022
“Learning Causal Overhypotheses through Exploration in Children and Computational Models”
“Megastudies Improve the Impact of Applied Behavioral Science”, Milkman et al 2021
“Megastudies improve the impact of applied behavioral science”
“Inducing Causal Structure for Interpretable Neural Networks (IIT)”, Geiger et al 2021
“Inducing Causal Structure for Interpretable Neural Networks (IIT)”
“Providing a Lower-bound Estimate for Psychology’s ‘crud Factor’: The Case of Aggression”, Ferguson & Heene 2021
“Providing a lower-bound estimate for psychology’s ‘crud factor’: The case of aggression”
“Testing the Structure of Human Cognitive Ability Using Evidence Obtained from the Impact of Brain Lesions over Abilities”, Protzko & Colom 2021
“Is Coffee the Cause or the Cure? Conflicting Nutrition Messages in 2 Decades of Online New York Times’ Nutrition News Coverage”, Ihekweazu 2021
“Causal Inference With Latent Treatments”, Fong & Grimmer 2021
“Causal and Associational Linking Language From Observational Research and Health Evaluation Literature in Practice: A Systematic Language Evaluation”, Haber et al 2021
“Common Elective Orthopaedic Procedures and Their Clinical Effectiveness: Umbrella Review of Level 1 Evidence”, Blom et al 2021
“What Is Your Estimand? Defining the Target Quantity Connects Statistical Evidence to Theory”, Lundberg et al 2021
“What Is Your Estimand? Defining the Target Quantity Connects Statistical Evidence to Theory”
“Regression To The Mean Fallacies”, Gwern 2021
“The Revolution Will Be Hard to Evaluate: How Co-occurring Policy Changes Affect Research on the Health Effects of Social Policies”, Matthay et al 2021
“The Piranha Problem: Large Effects Swimming in a Small Pond”, Tosh et al 2021
“The piranha problem: Large effects swimming in a small pond”
“Interpolating Causal Mechanisms: The Paradox of Knowing More”, Stephan et al 2021
“Interpolating Causal Mechanisms: The Paradox of Knowing More”
“Quantifying Causality in Data Science With Quasi-experiments”, Liu et al 2021
“Quantifying causality in data science with quasi-experiments”
“Intelligence and General Psychopathology in the Vietnam Experience Study: A Closer Look”, Kirkegaard & Nyborg 2021
“Intelligence and General Psychopathology in the Vietnam Experience Study: A Closer Look”
“The Causal Foundations of Applied Probability and Statistics”, Greenland 2020
“The causal foundations of applied probability and statistics”
“Objecting to Experiments Even While Approving of the Policies or Treatments They Compare”, Heck et al 2020
“Objecting to experiments even while approving of the policies or treatments they compare”
“Commentary: Cynical Epidemiology”, Kaufman 2020
“Rethinking Causation for Data-intensive Biology: Constraints, Cancellations, and Quantized Organisms: Causality in Complex Organisms Is Sculpted by Constraints rather than Instigators, With Outcomes Perhaps Better Described by Quantized Patterns Than Rectilinear Pathways”, Brash 2020
“Health Recommendations and Selection in Health Behaviors”, Oster 2020
“Exploring the Persome: The Power of the Item in Understanding Personality Structure”, Revelle et al 2020
“Exploring the persome: The power of the item in understanding personality structure”
“Why the Increasing Use of Complex Causal Models Is a Problem: On the Danger Sophisticated Theoretical Narratives Pose to Truth”, Saylors & Trafimow 2020
“Designing Agent Incentives to Avoid Reward Tampering”, Everitt et al 2019
“Reward Tampering Problems and Solutions in Reinforcement Learning: A Causal Influence Diagram Perspective”, Everitt et al 2019
“How Should We Critique Research?”, Gwern 2019
“A Comparison of Approaches to Advertising Measurement: Evidence from Big Field Experiments at Facebook”, Gordon et al 2019
“Effect of a Workplace Wellness Program on Employee Health and Economic Outcomes: A Randomized Clinical Trial”, Song & Baicker 2019
“Correlation = Causation? Music Training, Psychology, and Neuroscience”, Schellenberg 2019
“Correlation = causation? Music training, psychology, and neuroscience”
“Why Scatter Plots Suggest Causality, and What We Can Do about It”, Bergstrom & West 2018
“Why scatter plots suggest causality, and what we can do about it”
“Causal Language and Strength of Inference in Academic and Media Articles Shared in Social Media (CLAIMS): A Systematic Review”, Haber et al 2018
“Measuring Consumer Sensitivity to Audio Advertising: A Field Experiment on Pandora Internet Radio”, Huang et al 2018
“Measuring Consumer Sensitivity to Audio Advertising: A Field Experiment on Pandora Internet Radio”
“A Combined Analysis of Genetically Correlated Traits Identifies 187 Loci and a Role for Neurogenesis and Myelination in Intelligence”, Hill et al 2018
“Polygenic Prediction of the Phenome, across Ancestry, in Emerging Adulthood”, Docherty et al 2017
“Polygenic prediction of the phenome, across ancestry, in emerging adulthood”
“Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in Stable Angina (ORBITA): a Double-blind, Randomized Controlled Trial”, Al-Lamee et al 2017
“Implicit Causal Models for Genome-wide Association Studies”, Tran & Blei 2017
“Implicit Causal Models for Genome-wide Association Studies”
“The Surprising Implications of Familial Association in Disease Risk”, Valberg et al 2017
“The surprising implications of familial association in disease risk”
“Bias and High-dimensional Adjustment in Observational Studies of Peer Effects”, Eckles & Bakshy 2017
“Bias and high-dimensional adjustment in observational studies of peer effects”
“Graphical Models for Quasi-experimental Designs”, Steiner et al 2017
“Could a Neuroscientist Understand a Microprocessor?”, Jonas & Kording 2016
“Redundancy, Unilateralism and Bias beyond GDP—results of a Global Index Benchmark”, Dill & Gebhart 2016
“Redundancy, Unilateralism and Bias beyond GDP—results of a Global Index Benchmark”
“Agreement of Treatment Effects for Mortality from Routinely Collected Data and Subsequent Randomized Trials: Meta-epidemiological Survey”, Hemkens et al 2016
“Shared Genetic Aetiology between Cognitive Functions and Physical and Mental Health in UK Biobank (n = 112,151) and 24 GWAS Consortia”, Hagenaars et al 2016
“Beyond GDP? Welfare across Countries and Time”, Jones & Klenow 2016
“The Unfavorable Economics of Measuring the Returns to Advertising”, Lewis & Rao 2015
“The Unfavorable Economics of Measuring the Returns to Advertising”
“Mendelian Randomization With Invalid Instruments: Effect Estimation and Bias Detection through Egger Regression (MR-Egger)”, Bowden et al 2015
“Bounding a Linear Causal Effect Using Relative Correlation Restrictions”, Krauth 2015
“Bounding a Linear Causal Effect Using Relative Correlation Restrictions”
“When Correcting for Unreliability of Job Performance Ratings, the Best Estimate Is Still 0.52”, Shen et al 2014
“When Correcting for Unreliability of Job Performance Ratings, the Best Estimate Is Still 0.52”
“The Mystery Machine: End-to-end Performance Analysis of Large-scale Internet Services”, Chow et al 2014
“The Mystery Machine: End-to-end performance analysis of large-scale Internet services”
“Everything Is Correlated”, Gwern 2014
“Statistical Notes”, Gwern 2014
“How Often Does Correlation=Causality?”, Gwern 2014
“Why Correlation Usually ≠ Causation”, Gwern 2014
“Movie Reviews”, Gwern 2014
“Observational Studies Often Make Clinical Practice Recommendations: an Empirical Evaluation of Authors' Attitudes”, Prasad et al 2013
“A Decade of Reversal: An Analysis of 146 Contradicted Medical Practices”, Prasad 2013
“A Decade of Reversal: An Analysis of 146 Contradicted Medical Practices”
“‘Story Of Your Life’ Is Not A Time-Travel Story”, Gwern 2012
“The Iron Law Of Evaluation And Other Metallic Rules”, Rossi 2012
“Correlation and Causation in the Study of Personality”, Lee 2012
“Does Retail Advertising Work? Measuring the Effects of Advertising on Sales Via a Controlled Experiment on Yahoo”, Lewis & Reiley 2011
“Here, There, and Everywhere: Correlated Online Behaviors Can Lead to Overestimates of the Effects of Advertising”, Lewis et al 2011
“Deming, Data and Observational Studies”
“The Possibility of Unmeasured Confounding Variables in Observational Studies: a Forgotten Fact?”, Byrd & Ho 2011
“The possibility of unmeasured confounding variables in observational studies: a forgotten fact?”
“Overestimation of the Effects of Adherence on Outcomes: a Case Study in Healthy User Bias and Hypertension”, LaFleur et al 2011
“The Replication Crisis: Flaws in Mainstream Science”, Gwern 2010
“Causal Inference and Developmental Psychology”, Foster 2010
“Causal Inference and Observational Research: The Utility of Twins”, McGue et al 2010
“Causal Inference and Observational Research: The Utility of Twins”
“Association of Bisphenol A With Diabetes and Other Abnormalities”
“Association of Bisphenol A With Diabetes and Other Abnormalities”
“Retrospectives Guinnessometrics: The Economic Foundation of ‘Student’s’ t”, Ziliak 2008
“Retrospectives Guinnessometrics: The Economic Foundation of ‘Student’s’ t”
“Systematic Reviews of Animal Experiments Demonstrate Poor Contributions Toward Human Healthcare”, Knight 2008
“Systematic Reviews of Animal Experiments Demonstrate Poor Contributions Toward Human Healthcare”
“Clustered Environments and Randomized Genes: A Fundamental Distinction between Conventional and Genetic Epidemiology”, Smith et al 2007
“Causal Inference in Multisensory Perception”, Körding et al 2007
“How Close Is Close Enough? Evaluating Propensity Score Matching Using Data from a Class Size Reduction Experiment”, Wilde & Hollister 2007
“Proceeding From Observed Correlation to Causal Inference: The Use of Natural Experiments”, Rutter 2007
“Proceeding From Observed Correlation to Causal Inference: The Use of Natural Experiments”
“Personality and the Prediction of Consequential Outcomes”, Ozer & Benet-Martínez 2006
“Comparison of Evidence on Harms of Medical Interventions in Randomized and Nonrandomized Studies”, Papanikolaou et al 2006
“Comparison of evidence on harms of medical interventions in randomized and nonrandomized studies”
“Contradicted and Initially Stronger Effects in Highly Cited Clinical Research”, Ioannidis 2005
“Contradicted and Initially Stronger Effects in Highly Cited Clinical Research”
“Looking to the 21st Century: Have We Learned from Our Mistakes, or Are We Doomed to Compound Them?”, Shapiro 2004
“Looking to the 21st century: have we learned from our mistakes, or are we doomed to compound them?”
“Testing Hypotheses about the Relationship between Cannabis Use and Psychosis”, Degenhardt et al 2003
“Testing hypotheses about the relationship between cannabis use and psychosis”
“Personal Reflections on Lessons Learned from Randomized Trials Involving Newborn Infants, 1951 to 1967”, Silverman 2003
“Nonexperimental Replications of Social Experiments: A Systematic Review”, Glazerman et al 2002
“Nonexperimental Replications of Social Experiments: A Systematic Review”
“Can Nonexperimental Comparison Group Methods Match the Findings from a Random Assignment Evaluation of Mandatory Welfare-to-Work Programs? MDRC Working Papers on Research Methodology”, Bloom et al 2002
“It Pays to Be Ignorant: A Simple Political Economy of Rigorous Program Evaluation”, Pritchett 2002
“It pays to be ignorant: A simple political economy of rigorous program evaluation”
“Comparison of Evidence of Treatment Effects in Randomized and Nonrandomized Studies”, Ioannidis et al 2001
“Comparison of Evidence of Treatment Effects in Randomized and Nonrandomized Studies”
“Crosstalk and Specificity in Signalling: Are We Crosstalking Ourselves into General Confusion?”, Dumont et al 2001
“Crosstalk and specificity in signalling: Are we crosstalking ourselves into general confusion?”
“Storks Deliver Babies (p = 0.008)”, Matthews 2001
“Study Design and Estimates of Effectiveness”, MacLehose et al 2000
“Causal Effects in Nonexperimental Studies: Reevaluating the Evaluation of Training Programs”, Dehejia & Wahba 1999
“Causal Effects in Nonexperimental Studies: Reevaluating the Evaluation of Training Programs”
“Interpreting the Evidence: Choosing between Randomized and Non-randomised Studies”, McKee et al 1999
“Interpreting the evidence: choosing between randomized and non-randomised studies”
“Superadditive Correlation”, Giraud et al 1999
“Causality in Complex Systems”, Wagner 1999
“Spurious Precision? Meta-analysis of Observational Studies”, Egger et al 1998
“Spurious precision? Meta-analysis of observational studies”
“Who Goes First? The Story of Self-Experimentation in Medicine”, Altman 1998
“Who Goes First? The Story of Self-Experimentation in Medicine”
“Choosing Between Randomized and Non-randomised Studies”, Britton et al 1998
“The Unpredictability Paradox: Review of Empirical Comparisons of Randomized and Non-randomised Clinical Trials”, Kunz & Oxman 1998
“There Is a Time and a Place for Significance Testing”, Mulaik et al 1997
“Evaluating Program Evaluations: New Evidence on Commonly Used Nonexperimental Methods”, Friedlander & Robins 1995
“Evaluating Program Evaluations: New Evidence on Commonly Used Nonexperimental Methods”
“Inferring the Direction of Causation in Cross-sectional Twin Data: Theoretical and Empirical Considerations”, Duffy & Martin 1994
“Testing Hypotheses about Direction of Causation Using Cross-sectional Family Data”, Heath et al 1993
“Testing hypotheses about direction of causation using cross-sectional family data”
“Smoking As ‘independent’ Risk Factor for Suicide: Illustration of an Artifact from Observational Epidemiology?”, Smith et al 1992
“Bias in Relative Odds Estimation owing to Imprecise Measurement of Correlated Exposures”, Phillips & Smith 1992
“Bias in relative odds estimation owing to imprecise measurement of correlated exposures”
“How Independent Are ‘independent’ Effects? Relative Risk Estimation When Correlated Exposures Are Measured Imprecisely”, Phillips & Smith 1991
“Developing Improved Observational Methods for Evaluating Therapeutic Effectiveness”, Horwitz et al 1990
“Developing improved observational methods for evaluating therapeutic effectiveness”
“Memories of the British Streptomycin Trial in Tuberculosis: The First Randomized Trial”, Hill 1990
“Memories of the British streptomycin trial in tuberculosis: The First Randomized Trial”
“The Adequacy of Comparison Group Designs for Evaluations of Employment-Related Programs”, Fraker & Maynard 1987
“The Adequacy of Comparison Group Designs for Evaluations of Employment-Related Programs”
“Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs With Experimental Data”, LaLonde 1986
“Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs with Experimental Data”
“Why Do We Need Some Large, Simple Randomized Trials?”, Yusuf et al 1984
“Essence of Statistics (Second Edition)”, Loftus & Loftus 1982
“Heredity, Environment, & Personality: A Study of 850 Sets of Twins”, Loehlin & Nichols 1976
“Heredity, Environment, & Personality: A Study of 850 Sets of Twins”
“Theory Confirmation in Psychology”, Swoyer & Monson 1975
“On the Alleged Falsity of the Null Hypothesis”, Oakes 1975
“On Prior Probabilities of Rejecting Statistical Hypotheses”, Keuth 1973
“On Prior Probabilities of Rejecting Statistical Hypotheses”
“A Computer Movie Simulating Urban Growth in the Detroit Region”, Tobler 1970
“A computer movie simulating urban growth in the Detroit region”
“Use and Abuse of Regression”, Box 1966
“Distributions of Correlation Coefficients in Economic Time Series”, Ames & Reiter 1961
“Distributions of Correlation Coefficients in Economic Time Series”
“The Fallacy Of The Null-Hypothesis Statistical-Significance Test”, Rozeboom 1960
“The Fallacy Of The Null-Hypothesis Statistical-Significance Test”
“Cigarettes, Cancer, And Statistics”, Fisher 1958
“The Influence of ‘Statistical Methods for Research Workers’ on the Development of the Science of Statistics”, Yates 1951
“‘Superstition’ in the Pigeon”, Skinner 1948
“A New Measure of Introversion-Extroversion”, Evans & McConnell 1941
“"Student" As Statistician”, Pearson 1939
“Why Do We Sometimes Get Nonsense-Correlations between Time-Series?--A Study in Sampling and the Nature of Time-Series”
“Force Concept Inventory”
“The Initial Knowledge State of College Physics Students”
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/doc/statistics/causality/2011-09-slacktory-correlations-biebertonsillitis.png -
/doc/statistics/causality/2007-wilde-table5-experimentalvsnonexperimentalestimatesinprojectstar.png -
http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/unpublished/reversecausal_13oct05.pdf -
https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.648.1155 -
https://www.harvardmagazine.com/2012/03/twilight-of-the-lecture -
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9kcTNWopvXFncXgPy/intellectual-hipsters-and-meta-contrarianism -
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NMoLJuDJEms7Ku9XS/guessing-the-teacher-s-password -
https://www.the100.ci/2023/03/07/non-representative-samples-what-could-possibly-go-wrong/
Link Bibliography
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https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/gepi.22459: “Clarifying the Causes of Consistent and Inconsistent Findings in Genetics”, Saloni Dattani, David M. Howard, Cathryn M. Lewis, Pak C. Sham -
2021-milkman.pdf: “Megastudies Improve the Impact of Applied Behavioral Science”, -
regression: “Regression To The Mean Fallacies”, Gwern -
research-criticism: “How Should We Critique Research?”, Gwern -
everything: “Everything Is Correlated”, Gwern -
statistic: “Statistical Notes”, Gwern -
correlation: “How Often Does Correlation=Causality?”, Gwern -
causality: “Why Correlation Usually ≠ Causation”, Gwern -
movie: “Movie Reviews”, Gwern -
story-of-your-life: “‘Story Of Your Life’ Is Not A Time-Travel Story”, Gwern -
1987-rossi: “The Iron Law Of Evaluation And Other Metallic Rules”, Peter H. Rossi -
2011-lafleur.pdf: “Overestimation of the Effects of Adherence on Outcomes: a Case Study in Healthy User Bias and Hypertension”, Joanne LaFleur, Richard E. Nelson, Brian C. Sauer, Jonathan R. Nebeker -
replication: “The Replication Crisis: Flaws in Mainstream Science”, Gwern -
1994-duffy.pdf: “Inferring the Direction of Causation in Cross-sectional Twin Data: Theoretical and Empirical Considerations”, David L. Duffy, Nicholas G. Martin -
1986-lalonde.pdf: “Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs With Experimental Data”, Robert J. LaLonde