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‘tech economics’ tag

Why is automation/productivity growth so slow & “you can see the computer age everywhere but the statistics”, especially when AI has become so powerful? Because “the future is already here, it’s just unevenly distributed”—inertia & path-dependence.

Existing companies & processes are so hardwired to use humans as the basic building block that they must be reconceived to exploit new possibilities. Otherwise, you get absurdities like robotic process automation⁠.

This ‘overhang’ also explains why startup ideas fail repeatedly before succeeding & crises can lead to abrupt increases in existing technologies: the “rising water” was held back by levees of local optimums.

This prodi­gious event is still on its way, still wan­der­ing; it has not yet reached the ears of men. Light­ning and thun­der re­quire time, the light of the stars re­quires time, deeds, though done, still re­quire time to be seen and heard. This deed is still more dis­tant from them than the most dis­tant stars—and yet they have done it them­selves.

Ni­et­zsche

See Also

Gwern

“Evolution As Backstop for Reinforcement Learning”, Gwern 2018

Evolution as Backstop for Reinforcement Learning

“ARPA and SCI: Surfing AI”, Gwern 2018

ARPA and SCI: Surfing AI

“Complexity No Bar to AI”, Gwern 2014

Complexity no Bar to AI

“The Hyperbolic Time Chamber & Brain Emulation”, Gwern 2012

The Hyperbolic Time Chamber & Brain Emulation

“Why Tool AIs Want to Be Agent AIs”, Gwern 2016

Why Tool AIs Want to Be Agent AIs

Miscellaneous