‘experience curve’ directory
- See Also
- Gwern
-
Links
- “3 Orders of Magnitude: Transforming [Diamond Drill Bit] PDC Technology at US Synthetic”, Bertagnolli 2025
- “Learning-By-Doing in the Semiconductor Industry”, Decker 2025
- “Things We Learned about LLMs in 2024”
- “Morris Chang and the Origins of TSMC: Book Review of the Autobiography of Morris Chang”, Potter 2024
- “Densing Law of LLMs”, Xiao et al 2024
- “New AI Battle Adopts Old Price War Strategy As Chinese Tech Giants Keep Start-Ups at Bay behind the Great Firewall”, Jiang & Le 2024
- “Pet Cloning Is Booming in China”, Bateman 2022
- “Progress in Mathematical Programming Solvers 2001–2020”, Koch et al 2022
- “From Stroke to Stoke: The Multiple Sporting Legacies of the Southern California Home Swimming Pool”, Ryan & Tolga 2021
- “Research Community Dynamics behind Popular AI Benchmarks”, Martínez-Plumed et al 2021
- “How to Train BERT With an Academic Budget”, Izsak et al 2021
- “Measuring Progress in Deep Reinforcement Learning Sample Efficiency”, Anonymous 2020
- “A Time Leap Challenge for SAT Solving”, Fichte et al 2020
- “Measuring Hardware Overhang”, hippke 2020
- “Danny Hernandez on Forecasting and the Drivers of AI Progress”, Koehler et al 2020
- “Task Selection and Workload: A Focus on Completing Easy Tasks Hurts Performance”, KC et al 2020
- “Measuring the Algorithmic Efficiency of Neural Networks”, Hernandez & Brown 2020
- “AI and Efficiency: We’re Releasing an Analysis Showing That Since 2012 the Amount of Compute Needed to Train a Neural Net to the Same Performance on ImageNet Classification Has Been Decreasing by a Factor of 2 Every 16 Months”, Hernandez & Brown 2020
- “2019 Recent Trends in GPU Price per FLOPS”, Bergal 2020
- “Accelerating Self-Play Learning in Go”, Wu 2019
- “Training ImageNet in 3 Hours for $25; and CIFAR-10 for $0.26”, Howard 2018
- “Innovation and Cumulative Culture through Tweaks and Leaps in Online Programming Contests”, Miu et al 2018
- “How Well Do Experience Curves Predict Technological Progress? A Method for Making Distributional Forecasts”, Lafond et al 2017
- “Exponential Laws of Computing Growth: Moore’s Law Is One Small Component in an Exponentially Growing Planetary Computing Ecosystem”, Denning & Lewis 2017
- “What You Should Know About Megaprojects and Why: An Overview”, Flyvbjerg 2014
- “Algorithmic Progress in Six Domains”, Grace 2013
- “Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics”, Yudkowsky 2013
- “The Wait Calculation: The Broader Consequences of the Minimum Time from Now to Interstellar Destinations and Its Statistical-Significance to the Space Economy”, Kennedy 2013
- “Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress”, Nagy et al 2012
- “The International SAT Solver Competitions”, Järvisalo et al 2012
- “Implications of Historical Trends in the Electrical Efficiency of Computing”, Koomey et al 2011
- “Interim Monitoring of Cost Dynamics for Publicly Supported Energy Technologies”, Nemet 2009
- “Policy and Innovation in Low-Carbon Energy Technologies”, Nemet 2007
- “Two Centuries of Productivity Growth in Computing”, Nordhaus 2007
- “Establishing Moore’s Law”, Mollick 2006
- “Interstellar Travel: The Wait Calculation and the Incentive Trap of Progress”, Kennedy 2006
- “Moore’s Law and the Technology S-Curve”, Bowden 2004
- “Solving Real-World Linear Programs: A Decade and More of Progress”, Bixby 2002
- “On Proebsting’s Law”, Scott 2001
- “The Learning Curve and the Yield Factor: the Case of Korea’s Semiconductor Industry”, Chung 2001
- “The Effects of Moore’s Law and Slacking on Large Computations”, Gottbrath et al 1999
- “Proebsting’s Law: Compiler Advances Double Computing Power Every 18 Years”, Proebsting 1998
- “How Learning by Doing Is Done: Problem Identification in Novel Process Equipment”, Hippel & Tyre 1995
- “Learning-By-Doing Spillovers in the Semiconductor Industry”, Irwin & Klenow 1994
- “Competitive Cost Dynamics: The Experience Curve”, Hax & Majluf 1982
- “Startup Management”, Baloff 1970
- “Allocative Efficiency vs. ‘X-Efficiency’”, Leibenstein 1966
- “Profit from the Learning Curve”, Hirschmann 1964
- “Time for AI to Cross the Human Performance Range in Chess”
- “Energy Prices Are Naturally Turbulent”
- “Komodo 8: the Smartphone vs Desktop Challenge”
- “Let’s Reproduce GPT-2 (1.6B): One 8×H100 Node, 24 Hours, $672”
- “Make Megaprojects More Modular”
- “Big Data: Astronomical or Genomical?”, Stephens et al 2025
- “The Price of Batteries Has Declined by 97% in the Last Three Decades”
- “Why Did Renewables Become so Cheap so Fast?”
- “The Effect of TMI on the Electric Grid Or: How We Did Not Learn to Stop Worrying and Love Nuclear Power”
- “Performance Curve Database”
- “Some Thoughts on Education and Political Priorities, Cummings 2013”
- “Using Learning Curve Theory to Redefine Moore's Law”
- “Getting Materials out of the Lab”
- “Construction, Ford, and a Lever to Move the World”
- “How to Build a $20 Billion Semiconductor Fab”
- “The Science of Production”, Potter 2025
- “Now Anyone Can Train ImageNet in 18 Minutes”
- “DNA Sequencing Costs: Data”
- “The Cost of Sequencing a Human Genome”
- “A Closer Look at Chess Scalings (Into the Past)”
- “Benchmarking an Old Chess Engine on New Hardware”
- “Analysis of World Records in Speedrunning [LINKPOST]”
- “$400 Million Investment Programme Positions Ireland for Global Leadership in Genomic Research and Advanced Life Sciences”
- “Now You Can Sequence Your Whole Genome for Just $200”
- Wikipedia
- Miscellaneous
- Bibliography
See Also
Gwern
“Technology Forecasting: The Garden of Forking Paths”, Gwern 2014
Links
“3 Orders of Magnitude: Transforming [Diamond Drill Bit] PDC Technology at US Synthetic”, Bertagnolli 2025
3 Orders of Magnitude: Transforming [diamond drill bit] PDC Technology at US Synthetic
“Learning-By-Doing in the Semiconductor Industry”, Decker 2025
“Things We Learned about LLMs in 2024”
“Morris Chang and the Origins of TSMC: Book Review of the Autobiography of Morris Chang”, Potter 2024
Morris Chang and the Origins of TSMC: Book review of the autobiography of Morris Chang :
“Densing Law of LLMs”, Xiao et al 2024
“New AI Battle Adopts Old Price War Strategy As Chinese Tech Giants Keep Start-Ups at Bay behind the Great Firewall”, Jiang & Le 2024
“Pet Cloning Is Booming in China”, Bateman 2022
“Progress in Mathematical Programming Solvers 2001–2020”, Koch et al 2022
“From Stroke to Stoke: The Multiple Sporting Legacies of the Southern California Home Swimming Pool”, Ryan & Tolga 2021
From Stroke to Stoke: The Multiple Sporting Legacies of the Southern California Home Swimming Pool
“Research Community Dynamics behind Popular AI Benchmarks”, Martínez-Plumed et al 2021
“How to Train BERT With an Academic Budget”, Izsak et al 2021
“Measuring Progress in Deep Reinforcement Learning Sample Efficiency”, Anonymous 2020
Measuring Progress in Deep Reinforcement Learning Sample Efficiency
“A Time Leap Challenge for SAT Solving”, Fichte et al 2020
“Measuring Hardware Overhang”, hippke 2020
“Danny Hernandez on Forecasting and the Drivers of AI Progress”, Koehler et al 2020
Danny Hernandez on forecasting and the drivers of AI progress
“Task Selection and Workload: A Focus on Completing Easy Tasks Hurts Performance”, KC et al 2020
Task Selection and Workload: A Focus on Completing Easy Tasks Hurts Performance
“Measuring the Algorithmic Efficiency of Neural Networks”, Hernandez & Brown 2020
“AI and Efficiency: We’re Releasing an Analysis Showing That Since 2012 the Amount of Compute Needed to Train a Neural Net to the Same Performance on ImageNet Classification Has Been Decreasing by a Factor of 2 Every 16 Months”, Hernandez & Brown 2020
“2019 Recent Trends in GPU Price per FLOPS”, Bergal 2020
“Accelerating Self-Play Learning in Go”, Wu 2019
“Training ImageNet in 3 Hours for $25; and CIFAR-10 for $0.26”, Howard 2018
Training ImageNet in 3 hours for $25; and CIFAR-10 for $0.26
“Innovation and Cumulative Culture through Tweaks and Leaps in Online Programming Contests”, Miu et al 2018
Innovation and cumulative culture through tweaks and leaps in online programming contests
“How Well Do Experience Curves Predict Technological Progress? A Method for Making Distributional Forecasts”, Lafond et al 2017
“Exponential Laws of Computing Growth: Moore’s Law Is One Small Component in an Exponentially Growing Planetary Computing Ecosystem”, Denning & Lewis 2017
View PDF:
“What You Should Know About Megaprojects and Why: An Overview”, Flyvbjerg 2014
What You Should Know About Megaprojects and Why: An Overview
“Algorithmic Progress in Six Domains”, Grace 2013
“Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics”, Yudkowsky 2013
“The Wait Calculation: The Broader Consequences of the Minimum Time from Now to Interstellar Destinations and Its Statistical-Significance to the Space Economy”, Kennedy 2013
“Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress”, Nagy et al 2012
“The International SAT Solver Competitions”, Järvisalo et al 2012
“Implications of Historical Trends in the Electrical Efficiency of Computing”, Koomey et al 2011
Implications of Historical Trends in the Electrical Efficiency of Computing
“Interim Monitoring of Cost Dynamics for Publicly Supported Energy Technologies”, Nemet 2009
Interim monitoring of cost dynamics for publicly supported energy technologies
“Policy and Innovation in Low-Carbon Energy Technologies”, Nemet 2007
“Two Centuries of Productivity Growth in Computing”, Nordhaus 2007
“Establishing Moore’s Law”, Mollick 2006
“Interstellar Travel: The Wait Calculation and the Incentive Trap of Progress”, Kennedy 2006
Interstellar Travel: The Wait Calculation and the Incentive Trap of Progress
“Moore’s Law and the Technology S-Curve”, Bowden 2004
“Solving Real-World Linear Programs: A Decade and More of Progress”, Bixby 2002
Solving Real-World Linear Programs: A Decade and More of Progress
“On Proebsting’s Law”, Scott 2001
“The Learning Curve and the Yield Factor: the Case of Korea’s Semiconductor Industry”, Chung 2001
The learning curve and the yield factor: the case of Korea’s semiconductor industry :
“The Effects of Moore’s Law and Slacking on Large Computations”, Gottbrath et al 1999
The Effects of Moore’s Law and Slacking on Large Computations
“Proebsting’s Law: Compiler Advances Double Computing Power Every 18 Years”, Proebsting 1998
Proebsting’s Law: Compiler Advances Double Computing Power Every 18 Years
“How Learning by Doing Is Done: Problem Identification in Novel Process Equipment”, Hippel & Tyre 1995
How learning by doing is done: problem identification in novel process equipment
“Learning-By-Doing Spillovers in the Semiconductor Industry”, Irwin & Klenow 1994
“Competitive Cost Dynamics: The Experience Curve”, Hax & Majluf 1982
“Startup Management”, Baloff 1970
“Allocative Efficiency vs. ‘X-Efficiency’”, Leibenstein 1966
“Profit from the Learning Curve”, Hirschmann 1964
“Time for AI to Cross the Human Performance Range in Chess”
“Energy Prices Are Naturally Turbulent”
“Komodo 8: the Smartphone vs Desktop Challenge”
“Let’s Reproduce GPT-2 (1.6B): One 8×H100 Node, 24 Hours, $672”
Let’s reproduce GPT-2 (1.6B): one 8×H100 node, 24 hours, $672
“Make Megaprojects More Modular”
Make Megaprojects More Modular :
View HTML (20MB):
/doc/www/hbr.org/8c7db1f333c54c7bd67342f93cb6700bb8de16ae.html
“Big Data: Astronomical or Genomical?”, Stephens et al 2025
“The Price of Batteries Has Declined by 97% in the Last Three Decades”
The price of batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades :
View External Link:
“Why Did Renewables Become so Cheap so Fast?”
“The Effect of TMI on the Electric Grid Or: How We Did Not Learn to Stop Worrying and Love Nuclear Power”
View External Link:
“Performance Curve Database”
“Some Thoughts on Education and Political Priorities, Cummings 2013”
Some thoughts on education and political priorities, Cummings 2013
“Using Learning Curve Theory to Redefine Moore's Law”
“Getting Materials out of the Lab”
“Construction, Ford, and a Lever to Move the World”
“How to Build a $20 Billion Semiconductor Fab”
“The Science of Production”, Potter 2025
“Now Anyone Can Train ImageNet in 18 Minutes”
“DNA Sequencing Costs: Data”
“The Cost of Sequencing a Human Genome”
“A Closer Look at Chess Scalings (Into the Past)”
“Benchmarking an Old Chess Engine on New Hardware”
“Analysis of World Records in Speedrunning [LINKPOST]”
“$400 Million Investment Programme Positions Ireland for Global Leadership in Genomic Research and Advanced Life Sciences”
“Now You Can Sequence Your Whole Genome for Just $200”
Wikipedia
Miscellaneous
-
https://constructionphysics.substack.com/p/why-did-we-wait-so-long-for-wind-498 -
https://progressforum.org/posts/y4kYmFhqmA6gxsu9Y/radical-energy-abundance -
https://thehighergeometer.wordpress.com/2023/08/09/no-order-10-projective-planes-via-sat/: -
https://www.amazon.com/Turings-Cathedral-Origins-Digital-Universe/dp/1400075998/ -
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20181129005208/en/Ancestry-Breaks-November-Sales-Record: -
https://www.construction-physics.com/p/how-did-solar-power-get-cheap-part -
https://www.construction-physics.com/p/how-to-build-300000-airplanes-in: -
https://www.construction-physics.com/p/the-birth-of-the-grid -
https://www.construction-physics.com/p/the-rise-of-steel-part-ii -
https://www.construction-physics.com/p/the-story-of-titanium -
https://www.construction-physics.com/p/where-are-my-damn-learning-curves: -
https://www.construction-physics.com/p/where-do-economies-of-scale-come -
https://www.construction-physics.com/p/why-are-nuclear-power-construction-c3c -
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Q3XaZTExzDpCLr4wu/efficiency-and-resource-use-scaling-parity -
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cit3HYXehBsr4d36Q/open-thread-january-15-31-2012#rWkZ3TGRsL7DhSsNR: -
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9784/min-cost-of-dog-cloning-in-2030/ -
https://www.reddit.com/r/mlscaling/comments/1d3a793/andrej_karpathy_gpt2_124m_in_llmc_in_90_minutes/: -
https://www.usenix.org/publications/loginonline/bcrypt-25-retrospective-password-security
Bibliography
-
https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3264909/new-ai-battle-adopts-old-price-war-strategy-chinese-tech-giants-keep-start-ups-bay-behind-great: “New AI Battle Adopts Old Price War Strategy As Chinese Tech Giants Keep Start-Ups at Bay behind the Great Firewall”, -
2021-murtha.pdf: “From Stroke to Stoke: The Multiple Sporting Legacies of the Southern California Home Swimming Pool”, -
2021-martinezplumed.pdf: “Research Community Dynamics behind Popular AI Benchmarks”, -
https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.04881: “Measuring Progress in Deep Reinforcement Learning Sample Efficiency”, -
2020-kc.pdf: “Task Selection and Workload: A Focus on Completing Easy Tasks Hurts Performance”, -
https://www.fast.ai/2018/04/30/dawnbench-fastai/: “Training ImageNet in 3 Hours for $25; and CIFAR-10 for $0.26”, -
2013-kennedy.pdf: “The Wait Calculation: The Broader Consequences of the Minimum Time from Now to Interstellar Destinations and Its Statistical-Significance to the Space Economy”, -
2009-nemet.pdf: “Interim Monitoring of Cost Dynamics for Publicly Supported Energy Technologies”, -
2007-nemet.pdf: “Policy and Innovation in Low-Carbon Energy Technologies”, -
2006-kennedy.pdf: “Interstellar Travel: The Wait Calculation and the Incentive Trap of Progress”,