February 2026 News
February 2026 Gwern.net newsletter with links on TODO
February 2026’s Gwern.net newsletter is now out; previous, January 2026 (archives). This is a collation of links and summary of major changes, overlapping with my Changelog; brought to you by my donors on Patreon.
Writings
Inkhaven 2 recruiting for April 2026
“Spoilage”, GPT-5.2 Pro et al
Interview on risktaking and self-experiments/Quantified Self
Idea: Symbolic PFNs (SPFNs): Training LLMs for Symbolic Bayesian Inference by Reversing Stan
Links
AI
“Someone is Using AI to Exploit Lonely Writers on Substack: We should try to stop it”, Jayson Fritz-Stibbe 2026-01-15 (Claude LLM bots are successfully engagement-farming obscure writers, possibly to try to bootstrap their own account for eventual paid subscriptions?); “Sienna Rose”; “An AI Agent Published a Hit Piece on Me”, Scott Sambaugh (2026-02-12; part 2, confabulations)
“The Price of Progress: Algorithmic Efficiency and the Falling Cost of AI Inference”, et al 2025 (the DL experience curve continues; in particular, algorithmic efficiency in 2024–2025 improved at ~3×⧸year)
“Anthropic raises $30B in Series G funding at $380B post-money valuation”, Anthropic (“our run-rate revenue is $14 billion, and has grown >10× in each of the past 3 years”)
“Waymo World Model: A New Frontier For Autonomous Driving Simulation” (A big question in DL scaling right now, beyond how good the math/coding LLMs get, is to what extent the world models are going to work. Video spam or deepfake porn or half-assed video games are not the goal of video generative modeling work (even if that’s about all the current ones seem good for), but training in silico like this. One plan is essentially to have coding models build all the hands and tools necessary to hook up a car to a GPU and write all the software and math involved, and then world models to teach the final NN software running on that GPU how to drive a car—for all values of ‘car’. Sim2real is hard and unreliable, though. Waymo is showing interesting work here, but still light on evidence that you can meaningfully train to get the last 9s of reliability or that the relevant scaling laws cooperate with the plan…)
Genetics
Everything Is Heritable:
Recent Evolution:
Engineering:
Statistics/Meta-Science
“Sizing chaos”: inconsistency and bias in female clothing sizes over time
Politics/Religion
Psychology/Biology
The Loop e-zine, issue #1 (January 2025); The Loop e-zine, issue #2 (November 2025, Inkhaven)
Technology
“My journey to the microwave alternate timeline”, Malmesbury (The way the future was—how could anyone have thought microwaves would replace ovens? In hindsight, this all makes sense, including that you can fry/bake things in a microwave as long as you first get something metal very hot—I am just too terrified of putting metal into a microwave to easily conceive of frying stuff in a microwave…)
Economics
“Dying or Lying? For-Profit Hospices and End of Life Care”, et al 2025 (commentary)
“Fermenting revolution: The scientific and technological battle against bad bread had a role in women’s liberation”: “By forcing carbonated water into dough under high pressure, John Dauglish discovered in the 1850s that bread could be made to rise without the need for yeast, fermentation, or traditional kneading. This swiftly disrupted the commercial baking industry.”
Philosophy
Fiction
Books
Fiction:
Film/TV
Live-action:
Animated: