June 2025 News
June 2025 Gwern.net newsletter with links on TODO
June 2025’s Gwern.net newsletter is now out; previous, May 2025 (archives). This is a collation of links and summary of major changes, overlapping with my Changelog; brought to you by my donors on Patreon.
Writings
Links
AI
“Anthropic hits $3 billion in annualized revenue on business demand for AI”
“Natural Language Processing (Almost) from Scratch”, Collobert et al 201115ya (training windowed MLPs for NLP tasks on 0.8b word corpus: “Can we learn…the world by leveraging the 0.2 BPC that separate humans from n-grams?”)
“How Much Energy Does It Take To Think?” (the extreme 1:20 human brain ratio of maintenance/online-learning vs active thinking)
“The Rationale-Shaped Hole At The Heart Of Forecasting” (did any of the AI prediction markets or forecasting contests about AI scaling/trends do any good?)
Genetics
Everything Is Heritable:
“Deep learning based phenotyping of medical images improves power for gene discovery of complex disease”, Flynn et al 2023
Recent Evolution:
Engineering:
Statistics/Meta-Science
“The Black Hole Case: The Injunction Against the End of the World”, Johnson 2009
“Delphi method”: iteratively elicit predictions+rationales from experts to go beyond narrow quantitative forecasts like prediction markets
Politics/Religion
“Q1 AI Benchmarking Results: Pros Crush Bots”, Metaculus 2025 (“…most important factor for good forecasting is the base model”); “Pitfalls of Evaluating Language Model Forecasters”, Paleka et al 2025 (reasons to doubt LLM forecasting successes with current/small models: logical leaks in backtesting benchmarks, and temporal leaks in search/models)
Psychology/Biology
“Remote Instruction and Student Mental Health: Swedish Evidence from the Pandemic”, Björkegren et al 2024
“From Synapses to Dynamics: Obtaining Function from Structure in a Connectome Constrained Model of the Head Direction Circuit”, Duan et al 2025
Peter Putnam (1927–60198739ya): the tragedy of a forgotten early philosopher of model-free RL / predictive processing neuroscience
“A cellular entity retaining only its replicative core: Hidden archaeal lineage with an ultra-reduced genome”, Harada et al 2025
Technology
Economics
“The Long-Run Effects of Government Spending”, Antolin-Diaz & Surico 2025
“Tanpin Kanri: Retail Practice at Seven-Eleven Japan”, Lal & Han 2011
Philosophy
Henri, le Chat Noir (“I have no opposable thumbs. Yet I oppose everything.”)
Books
Fiction:
Piranesi, Susanna Clarke 2020
Non-fiction:
The Merchant of Prato: Francesco di Marco Datini, 1335–1410, Iris Origo 2020
Film/TV
Live-action:
Animated: