January 2018 Gwern.net newsletter with 3 tech/philosophy essays and links on genetics, AI, biology/medicine, Bitcoin, linguistics, Touhou, and 2 anime reviews.
This is the January 2018 edition of the Gwern.net newsletter; previous, December 2017 (archives). This is a collation of links and summary of major changes, overlapping with my Changelog; brought to you by my donors on Patreon.
Writings
Media
Links
Genetics:
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Everything Is Heritable:
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“A combined analysis of genetically correlated traits identifies 187 loci and a role for neurogenesis and myelination in intelligence”, et al 2018 (MTAG strikes again: I estimate the PGS to be ~10%, not 7% as reported, due to severe measurement error in the replication sample.)
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“The new genetics of intelligence”, Plomin & von 2018 (Mentions upcoming PGS of 10%, uncorrected. Remember: attacks only get better.)
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“Genomic risk prediction of coronary artery disease in nearly 500,000 adults: implications for early screening and primary prevention”, et al 2018 ( Risk prediction graph; as sample sizes increase, the PGSes become increasingly meaningful predictors…)
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“Making new genetic diagnoses with old data: iterative reanalysis and reporting from genome-wide data in 1,133 families with developmental disorders”, et al 2018 (Progress in genetically diagnosing developmental disorders & retardation: the DDD Study has gone from 27% to 40% diagnosis rate over the past 3 years due to general genetic progress, and expects further improvements); “Rapid Whole Genome Sequencing Decreases Morbidity and Healthcare Cost of Hospitalized Infants”, et al 2018
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“Genome-wide association analysis of lifetime cannabis use (n = 184,765) identifies new risk loci, genetic overlap with mental health, and a causal influence of schizophrenia on cannabis use”, et al 2018 (Correlation ≠ causation: more evidence that schizophrenia/cannabis is confounded)
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“GWAS of Insomnia (n = 1,331,010) Identifies Novel Loci and Functional Pathways”, et al 2018
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“Fine-mapping of an expanded set of type 2 diabetes loci to single-variant resolution using high-density imputation and islet-specific epigenome maps”, et al 2018 (this illustrates the continuing benefits of sample size, and also the benefit of using better imputation to squeeze a lot more out of existing SNP-only datasets—imputation reduces the need for whole-genomes.)
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“The Shared Genetic Basis of Human Fluid Intelligence and Brain Morphology”, et al 2018
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“How MyHeritage found a new business in DNA” (>1m SNP tests sold in 2017; the GWAS betas will continue until morale improves)
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Recent Evolution:
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“Human local adaptation of the TRPM8 cold receptor along a latitudinal cline”, et al 2018 (European racial tendency to migraines due to a cold adaptation?)
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Dysgenics:
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“Evidence of directional and stabilizing selection in contemporary humans”, et al 2017 ( graphs; directional selection against education/intelligence in the UK for women but slight selection for education/intelligence in men)
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“Elevated proportions of deleterious genetic variation in domestic animals and plants”, et al 2018 (Evidence of dysgenics in domesticated species, primarily due to population bottlenecks in the original domestication rather than selective breeding.)
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Engineering:
AI:
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“Unsupervised Cipher Cracking Using Discrete GANs”, et al 2018
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“Eat Your VGGtables, or, Why Does Neural Style Transfer Work Best With Old VGG CNNs’ Features?”
Politics/religion:
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“The Elusive Backfire Effect: Mass Attitudes’ Steadfast Factual Adherence”, 2017 (Big failed replication: n = 10100/k = 52.)
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What Went Wrong at Target Canada (business disaster case story: groupthink/sunk-cost, unfamiliar technology, perverse internal incentives, etc.)
Psychology/biology:
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“New Evidence on the Impacts of Birth Order” (More Scandinavian population registry goodness: so birth order effects may exist after all and be quite large)
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“Body weight homeostat that regulates fat mass independently of leptin in rats and mice”, et al 2018 (weird)
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“Interest in the Ketogenic Diet Grows for Weight Loss and Type 2 Diabetes”, 2018
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“Naked mole-rat mortality rates defy Gompertzian laws by not increasing with age”, et al 2018
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“Changing tides: ecological and historical perspectives on fish cognition”, 2015 (on surprisingly capable fish)
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“Clusters of Individual Experiences form a Continuum of Persistent Non-Symbolic Experiences in Adults”, 2013 (Enlightenment appears to have surprisingly minimal and mostly negative effects on cognition & daily life; it is unfortunate Martin engages in explicit publication bias in choice of metrics, though, undermining his results & interpretations.)
Technology:
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“A Personal View of Average-Case Complexity”, 1995 (the 5 possible worlds of cryptography)
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“Coding Machines” (Reflections on “Reflections on Trusting Trust”)
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“Revisiting the Risks of Bitcoin Currency Exchange Closure”, et al 2016
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Could we solve blockchain scaling with terabyte-sized blocks?
Philosophy:
Fiction:
Misc:
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Touhou lossless music collection (TLMC): version 19 released (first release since June 2015; up to 1.7TB)
Books
Nonfiction:
Film/TV
Animated: