November 2017 Gwern.net newsletter with links on genetics, reinforcement learning, psychology, economics; 2 book reviews, 1 movie review
This is the November 2017 edition of the Gwern.net newsletter; previous, October 2017 (archives). This is a collation of links and summary of major changes, overlapping with my Changelog; brought to you by my donors on Patreon.
Writings
Media
Links
Genetics:
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Engineering:
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“US scientists try 1st gene editing [zinc finger nucleases] in the body [of Hunter syndrome]”
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“Eugenics 2.0: We’re at the Dawn of Choosing Embryos by Health, Height, and More; Will you be among the first to pick your kids’ IQ? As machine learning unlocks predictions from DNA databases, scientists say parents could have choices never before possible.” (Hsu’s embryo selection startup, Genomic Prediction, comes out of stealth)
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“A baby with a disease gene or no baby at all: Genetic testing of embryos creates an ethical morass” (on deliberately having kids with serious genetic diseases; see previously Slate on Huntington’s disease.)
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“Every Parent Wants to Protect Their Child. I Never Got the Chance” (on cystic fibrosis & wrongful-birth lawsuits)
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“Discounts, guarantees and the search for ‘good’ genes: The booming fertility business” (‘Bioethicist’ frustrated they can’t come up with a pretext for outlawing having healthier kids or choosing your mates: ‘“It’s a little unsettling to be marketing characteristics as potentially positive in a future child”, said Rebecca Dresser, a bioethicist at Washington University in St. Louis and a member of the President’s Council on Bioethics under George W. Bush. “But it’s hard to think on what basis to prohibit that.” And so, Dresser said, “what we have now is prospective parents making judgments about what they think ‘good’ genes are”—decisions that are literally changing the face of the next generation.’)
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Everything Is Heritable:
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“Big Data: Astronomical or Genomical?”, et al 2015 (Are power estimates suggesting we need n = 1–2m for IQ GWASes or other traits a cause for pessimism? No; 23andMe and Ancestry.com are doing around that much each year now, and genomics in general continues to follow earlier exponential projections. In another 5–10 years, there may be enough sequencing capacity to sequence the entire global population once, and potentially billions of available cumulative raw genomes. Against that, phenotyping a few million will not be a big deal.)
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UK Biobank begins exome sequencing (UKBB—the gift that keeps on giving.)
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“The company [23andMe] has sold more than 6 million tests for $79 apiece (recently down from $99)” (The genomic revolution will continue until morale improves.)
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The environment is genetic: “The nature of nurture: effects of parental genotypes”, et al 2017; “Estimating heritability without environmental bias”, et al 2017 (interesting new method; among other implications, that much of the benefits of embryo selection would be delayed to the next generation, since they will be expressed via better parenting (whatever that is).)
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“Common risk variants identified in autism spectrum disorder”, et al 2017 (ASD begins to pass the sample-size threshold)
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“GWAS for male-pattern baldness identifies 71 susceptibility loci explaining 38% of the risk”, et al 2017 ( criticism)
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“The molecular genetics of participation in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children”, et al 2017 (GWASes show everything is heritable, including participating in GWASes; this suggests range restriction and pervasive gene-environment correlation, as indicated by other studies like et al 2016 )
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“Socioeconomic status and genetic influences on cognitive development”, et al 2017 (More evidence against Turkheimer’s claim that poor people have lower heritability)
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“Singleton Variants Dominate the Genetic Architecture of Human Gene Expression”, et al 2017 (Towards finding the rare variant contribution to heritability beyond SNP/LDSC/etc.)
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“The infinitesimal model: Definition, derivation, and implications”, et al 2017 (Why does the Fisher additive model of genetics work so well universally when it must be, strictly-speaking, false?)
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AI:
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“A Year [2016] in Computer Vision”, Duffy & Flynn (review of primarily DL progress in 2016 on image classification, object detection/tracking, segmentation, upscaling, 3D geometry estimation, and fundamental CNN & dataset R&D)
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“Unsupervised Machine Translation Using Monolingual Corpora Only”, et al 2017 (More CycleGAN-style neural magic)
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“TreeQN and ATreeC: Differentiable Tree Planning for Deep Reinforcement Learning”, et al 2017 (deep model-based planning; despite GPU VRAM limiting them to depth-2/3 at most, still helpful)
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“Thinking Fast and Slow with Deep Learning and Tree Search”, et al 2017 ( blog; revised post-AlphaGo-Zero.)
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“Parallel WaveNet: Fast High-Fidelity Speech Synthesis”, van den et al 2017 ( blog; very nice use of model compression/distillation to train a fast small WaveNet which can run in realtime)
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“Knowledge Concentration: Learning 100K-category Object Classifiers [n = 400m] in a Single CNN”, et al 2017 (CNNs at Google scale)
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“AI Safety Gridworlds”, et al 2017 ( blog; benchmarking various safety problems including Armstrong’s camera-problem)
Statistics/Meta-Science:
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“‘Unbelievable’: Heart Stents Fail to Ease Chest Pain”, of Al-et al 2017
500,000+ people annually are operated on to insert stents starting in the 1990s; this surgery was never tested with placebo controls and was based on self-report measurements—rather than hard endpoints like mortality—before being rolled out, despite surgeries failing half the time in placebo-controlled studies (et al 2014 , see also Ending Medical Reversal), as doctors thought stents not working was “unbelievable” and US IRBs would have killed a placebo-controlled study of stents as being ‘unethical’. The non-US study found minimal benefit (blinded effect size 1/6th that of non-blinded). Said study is, nevertheless, expected to not affect stent surgeries or IRB standards. As Yudkowsky asks, “Why aren’t they rioting?”
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“Bias and high-dimensional adjustment in observational studies of peer effects”, 2017 (how often does correlation=causation? Standard correlational estimate w/controls overestimates effect of Facebook experiment by 320%, requires 3700 additional control variables to approximate the randomized effect.)
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“Consumer Heterogeneity and Paid Search Effectiveness: A Large Scale Field Experiment”, et al 2014 (Correlation ≠ causation or, does online advertising actually work?)
Politics/religion:
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“When Will The Earth Try to Kill Us Again?” (reviewing the latest work on volcanic cycles and mass-extinction mechanisms)
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“Lost Exile: The unlikely life and sudden death of The Exile, Russia’s angriest newspaper”
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How BSO conductor Karl Muck landed in trouble because of the national anthem (another example of the mindless jingoism and tyranny of WWI)
Psychology/biology:
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“The 1% of the population accountable for 63% of all violent crime convictions”, Falk et al 201311ya; “Common psychiatric disorders [and violent crime] share the same genetic origin: a multivariate sibling study of the Swedish population”, et al 2015 (More interesting Scandinavian population registry results.)
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“Does Far Transfer Exist? Negative Evidence From Chess, Music, and Working Memory Training”, 2017
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“Practice Does Not Make Perfect: No Causal Effect of Music Practice on Music Ability”, et al 2014
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“The Last of the Iron Lungs” (on the importance of vaccination)
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“The Complicated Legacy Of A Panda Who Was Really Good At Sex”: Pan Pan and panda breeding programs
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“As Winter Sets In, Tiny Shrews Shrink Their Skulls and Brains” (Organisms are under constant evolutionary pressure to be as stupid as they possibly can get away with being.)
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“Michel Jouvet, Who Unlocked REM Sleep’s Secrets, Dies at 91” (modafinil)
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“Runaway Money” (Poverty is not about money etc: the wastrel life of the heir to the Goodnight Moon copyright.)
Technology:
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“TrueBit: A scalable verification solution for blockchains”, 2017 (Very complex but interesting scheme for safely outsourcing arbitrarily big computations on blockchains)
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“GSMem: Data Exfiltration from Air-Gapped Computers over GSM Frequencies”, et al 2015 (Scary side-channels: turning a computer into a cellphone by simply moving data between RAM and CPU)
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“Hyper-realistic face masks: a new challenge in person identification”, et al 2017 (The best silicone/latex face masks are now capable of reliably fooling almost all people.)
Economics:
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“Industrial Espionage and Productivity”, 2017 (Why do countries like East Germany or China engage in so much industrial espionage? Because it works & helps compensate for their own inefficiency.)
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“Cornucopia: The Pace of Economic Growth in the Twentieth Century”, 2000
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“X-Men at 25: The Unlikely Story of the Animated Hit No Network Wanted” (on the 199232ya X-Men TV series)
Fiction:
Books
Nonfiction:
Film/TV
Live-action:
Music
Touhou:
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“Dial Connected” (Linjin feat. Aki; ‘紅 -KURENAI-’ {200915ya}) [rock]
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“Visions(ARM REMIX)” (Masayoshi Minoshima feat. ayame; lumière ambrée: {R14}) [trance]
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“REDSOUL(LONG)” (Masayoshi Minoshima feat. ayame; lumière ambrée: {R14}) [trance]
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“ReFrain” (Kirin ft. Murasaki Hotaru; Divine Lotus {R14}) [trance]
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“成層圏 (Stratosphere)” (MARIN feat. Anna Hanasaki; Divine Lotus {R14}) [trance]