Bibliography (73):

  1. Subjective Probability

  2. https://web.archive.org/web/20170129002003/http://psychology.huji.ac.il/en/?cmd=Faculty.125&act=read&id=75

  3. https://bsc.harvard.edu/people/alipson

  4. Konold, Cliff

  5. https://www.amazon.com/Uncertain-Outcomes-C-R-Bell/dp/0852001037

  6. 1987-macgregor.pdf

  7. 1968-cohen.pdf

  8. Doctor Fischer of Geneva or The Bomb Party

  9. 1987-ayton.pdf

  10. 1957-feller-anintroductiontoprobabilitytheoryanditsapplications-1.pdf

  11. 1973-meshalkin-collectionofproblemsinprobabilitytheory.pdf

  12. https://www.amazon.com/Understanding-Probability-Statistics-Book-Problems/dp/1568810180

  13. https://www.amazon.com/Patterns-Nuptuality-Fertility-Israel-assimilation/dp/B005HKFSVO/

  14. Counterbalancing in the Design of Experiments

  15. Variants of Uncertainty

  16. Mind Projection Fallacy

  17. Probability Theory as Logic

  18. Clearing up Mysteries—The Original Goal

  19. https://www.amazon.com/Judgment-under-Uncertainty-Heuristics-Biases/dp/0521284147

  20. https://www.srri.umass.edu/sites/srri/files/Falk%26Konold1992/index.pdf

  21. https://www.amazon.com/Statistics-Twenty-First-Century-M-Notes/dp/0883850788

  22. 1989-shimojo.pdf

  23. https://www.amazon.com/Empire-Chance-Probability-Changed-Everyday/dp/052139838X

  24. https://www.amazon.com/Emergence-Probability-Philosophical-Statistical-Probabilistic/dp/0521685575/

  25. 1992-falk.pdf

  26. Symmetry and Its Discontents

  27. Informal Conceptions of Probability

  28. https://books.google.com/books?id=zhjOPdmyz1wC&pg=PA26&lpg=PA26#v=onepage&q&f=false

  29. 2007-teigen.pdf

  30. The Allure of Equality: Uniformity in Probabilistic and Statistical Judgment

  31. https://web.archive.org/web/20160702204320/http://www.xamuel.com/hope-function/

  32. How to Update P(X This Week), upon Hearing P(X next Month) = 99.5%?

  33. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cPfZA6Bz9JEjPrC6B/an-inflection-point-for-probability-estimates-of-the-ai?commentId=gAydSjYhJmJ4ongX9

  34. Intelligence Explosion: Evidence and Import

  35. Chapter 18: the Ap Distribution and the Rule of Succession

  36. ​ charity-is-not-about-helping#the-hope-function

    [Transclude the forward-link's context]

  37. 1965-black.pdf

  38. Probably Overthinking It: The Inspection Paradox Is Everywhere

  39. The Waiting Time Paradox, Or, Why Is My Bus Always Late?

  40. NYC Subway Math

  41. https://maxstock.scripts.mit.edu/blog/2019/01/13/278/

  42. Wikipedia Bibliography:

    1. Hebrew University of Jerusalem  :

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebrew_University_of_Jerusalem

    2. University of Massachusetts Amherst  :

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Massachusetts_Amherst

    3. Bayesian search theory

    4. Sherlock Holmes  :

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sherlock_Holmes

    5. Arthur Conan Doyle

    6. The Adventure of the 6 Napoleons  :

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Adventure_of_the_Six_Napoleons

    7. Graham Greene

    8. Christmas cracker

    9. Drosophila

    10. Bayesian inference

    11. Prior probability

    12. Posterior probability

    13. Bayes' theorem

    14. Secretary problem

    15. Base rate

    16. Gambler's fallacy

    17. Edwin Thompson Jaynes

    18. Mind projection fallacy  :

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_projection_fallacy

    19. Base rate fallacy

    20. Three Prisoners problem  :

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Prisoners_problem

    21. Monty Hall problem

    22. Boy or girl paradox  :

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boy_or_girl_paradox

    23. Independence (probability theory)

    24. Absent-minded professor  :

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Absent-minded_professor

    25. Poisson distribution

    26. National Science Foundation

    27. Frequentist inference

    28. Rule of succession

    29. Doomsday argument

    30. Lindy effect

    31. Renewal theory  :

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewal_theory

    32. Weibull distribution