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  2. Subjective Probability

  3. https://web.archive.org/web/20170129002003/http://psychology.huji.ac.il/en/?cmd=Faculty.125&act=read&id=75

  4. https://bsc.harvard.edu/people/alipson

  5. Konold, Cliff

  6. https://www.amazon.com/Uncertain-Outcomes-C-R-Bell/dp/0852001037

  7. 1987-macgregor.pdf

  8. 1968-cohen.pdf

  9. Doctor Fischer of Geneva or The Bomb Party

  10. 1987-ayton.pdf

  11. 1957-feller-anintroductiontoprobabilitytheoryanditsapplications-1.pdf

  12. 1973-meshalkin-collectionofproblemsinprobabilitytheory.pdf

  13. https://www.amazon.com/Understanding-Probability-Statistics-Book-Problems/dp/1568810180

  14. https://www.amazon.com/Patterns-Nuptuality-Fertility-Israel-assimilation/dp/B005HKFSVO/

  15. Counterbalancing in the Design of Experiments

  16. Variants of Uncertainty

  17. Mind Projection Fallacy

  18. Probability Theory as Logic

  19. Clearing up Mysteries—The Original Goal

  20. https://www.amazon.com/Judgment-under-Uncertainty-Heuristics-Biases/dp/0521284147

  21. https://www.srri.umass.edu/sites/srri/files/Falk%26Konold1992/index.pdf

  22. https://www.amazon.com/Statistics-Twenty-First-Century-M-Notes/dp/0883850788

  23. 1989-shimojo.pdf

  24. https://www.amazon.com/Empire-Chance-Probability-Changed-Everyday/dp/052139838X

  25. https://www.amazon.com/Emergence-Probability-Philosophical-Statistical-Probabilistic/dp/0521685575/

  26. 1992-falk.pdf

  27. Symmetry and Its Discontents

  28. Informal Conceptions of Probability

  29. https://books.google.com/books?id=zhjOPdmyz1wC&pg=PA26&lpg=PA26#v=onepage&q&f=false

  30. 2007-teigen.pdf

  31. The Allure of Equality: Uniformity in Probabilistic and Statistical Judgment

  32. https://web.archive.org/web/20160702204320/http://www.xamuel.com/hope-function/

  33. How to Update P(X This Week), upon Hearing P(X next Month) = 99.5%?

  34. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cPfZA6Bz9JEjPrC6B/an-inflection-point-for-probability-estimates-of-the-ai?commentId=gAydSjYhJmJ4ongX9

  35. Intelligence Explosion: Evidence and Import

  36. Chapter 18: the Ap Distribution and the Rule of Succession

  37. ​ charity-is-not-about-helping#the-hope-function

    [Transclude the forward-link's context]

  38. 1965-black.pdf

  39. Probably Overthinking It: The Inspection Paradox Is Everywhere

  40. The Waiting Time Paradox, Or, Why Is My Bus Always Late?

  41. NYC Subway Math

  42. https://maxstock.scripts.mit.edu/blog/2019/01/13/278/

  43. Wikipedia Bibliography:

    1. Hebrew University of Jerusalem  :

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebrew_University_of_Jerusalem

    2. University of Massachusetts Amherst  :

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Massachusetts_Amherst

    3. Bayesian search theory

    4. Sherlock Holmes  :

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sherlock_Holmes

    5. Arthur Conan Doyle

    6. The Adventure of the 6 Napoleons  :

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Adventure_of_the_Six_Napoleons

    7. Graham Greene

    8. Christmas cracker

    9. Drosophila

    10. Bayesian inference

    11. Prior probability

    12. Posterior probability

    13. Bayes' theorem

    14. Secretary problem

    15. Base rate

    16. Gambler's fallacy

    17. Edwin Thompson Jaynes

    18. Mind projection fallacy  :

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_projection_fallacy

    19. Base rate fallacy

    20. Three Prisoners problem  :

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Prisoners_problem

    21. Monty Hall problem

    22. Boy or girl paradox  :

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boy_or_girl_paradox

    23. Independence (probability theory)

    24. Absent-minded professor  :

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Absent-minded_professor

    25. Poisson distribution

    26. National Science Foundation

    27. Frequentist inference

    28. Rule of succession

    29. Doomsday argument

    30. Lindy effect

    31. Renewal theory  :

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewal_theory

    32. Weibull distribution