Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project
Large Language Model Prediction Capabilities: Evidence from a Real-World Forecasting Tournament
Crowd prediction systems: Markets, polls, and elite forecasters
Statistical Notes § Dealing With All-Or-Nothing Unreliability of Data
Statistical Notes § Inferring Mean IQs From SMPY/TIP Elite Samples
Experiments on partisanship and public opinion: Party cues, false beliefs, and Bayesian updating
Measuring Backsliding with Observables: Observable-to-Subjective Score Mapping (OSM)
The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective