https://berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2016ltr.pdf
02008-02017 (10 Years): Over a Ten-Year Period Commencing on January 1, 2008, and Ending on December 31, 2017, the S&P 500 Will Outperform a Portfolio of Funds of Hedge Funds, When Performance Is Measured on a Basis Net of Fees, Costs and Expenses.
https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2017ltr.pdf
Why I Lost My Bet With Warren Buffett
About Long Bets
Long Bets Frequently Asked Questions
The Rules of Long Bets
Betting Procedure
On the Record: Bets
On the Record: Predictions
02007-02018 (11 Years): Turkey Will Join the European Union and Become a Model for a Democratic Islamic State and Lead the Way for Advancing Relations between the Islamic World and "Western World"
https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2013ltr.pdf
Buffett Pulls Ahead in Wager against Hedge Funds
Millions of Nonprofit Tax Documents
form990-longnowfoundation-2001-12.pdf
2002-longnowfoundation-form990.pdf
2003-longnowfoundation-form990.pdf
2004-longnowfoundation-form990.pdf
2005-longnowfoundation-form990.pdf
2006-longnowfoundation-form990.pdf
2007-longnowfoundation-form990.pdf
2008-longnowfoundation-form990.pdf
2009-longnowfoundation-form990.pdf
2010-longnowfoundation-form990.pdf
2011-longnowfoundation-form990.pdf
2012-longnowfoundation-form990.pdf
2013-longnowfoundation-form990.pdf
2014-longnowfoundation-form990.pdf
02008-02018 (10 Years): Large Hadron Collider Will Destroy Earth
02008-02018 (11 Years): By 2018 the Euro (€) Will Not Be the Legal Currency of France, Italy and Germany
02008-02020 (13 Years): By the End of the Year 2020, a Professional Sports Team That Is Part of Either the National Football League, the National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, the National Hockey League, or Major League Soccer Will Integrate and Have a Woman As a Team Member/player.
02002-02020 (18 Years): By 2020, No One Will Have Won a Nobel Prize for Work on Superstring Theory, Membrane Theory, or Some Other Unified Theory Describing All the Forces of Nature
02017-02020 (4 Years): A Bioterror or Bioerror Will Lead to One Million Casualties in a Single Event within a Six Month Period Starting No Later Than Dec 31 02020
02002-02022 (20 Years): In 2022 the US Economy Will No Longer Be Held to Be the World Leader in Global Environmental Degradation
02016-02024 (8 Years): Driverless Cars Will Be Commercially Available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024. Trips May Be Point to Point outside of the City Center With No Requirement for Any Passenger to Take over Manual Control of the Vehicle.
02008-02025 (17 Years): The First True Interstellar Mission, Targeted at the Closest Star to the Sun or Even Farther, Will Be Launched Before or on December 6, 2025 and Will Be Widely Supported by the Public.
02004-02025 (21 Years): By 2025, the States Will Have Voted on at Least One Constitutional Amendment to Cede US Federal Power to a Global Government
02003-02025 (22 Years): By 2025 the Scientific Evidence of a Hither-To-Unknown Large Bi-Pedal Great Ape Will Be Sufficient to Convince at Least 50% of Primatologists That a Yeti/bigfoot-Like Creature Exists
02002-02029 (27 Years): By 2029 No Computer - or "Machine Intelligence" - Will Have Passed the Turing Test
02002-02030 (28 Years): By 2030, Commercial Passengers Will Routinely Fly in Pilotless Planes
02012-02017 (5 Years): The United States Will Not Experience Hyperinflation (Defined by 3 Consecutive Months of 6% Month over Month Inflation according to the Billion Prices Project Measurement of MoM Inflation) from April 17th 2012 to April 17th 2017
Bitcoins Will Outperform the US Dollar, Gold, Silver, and the Stock Market by over 100 times over the next Two Years
02009-02014 (5 Years): By 2014 Twitter like Products Coupled With Person Mounted Video Cameras Will Allow People to Lifecast Every Moment of Their Daily Experience. Others in the Community of Users Will Be Able to Subscribe to the Lives of Those They Wish to Follow
02009-02015 (6 Years): By 2015 More Internet Requests Will Originate from Mobile Phones and Other Types of Embedded Devices Than from Desktop and Laptop Personal Computers.
02007-02015 (8 Years): No Substantial Departure from the Standard Model of Elementary Particle Physics Will Be Discovered in Experiments by the Year 2015. `Substantial' Departures Include Supersymmetry, Extra Dimensions of Space-Time, Techni-Color Models of Higgs Bosons, and Compositeness of Quarks and Gluons but NOT Additional Higgs Bosons, Families of Particles or Neutrino Masses. Theoretical Advances in Understanding the Hierarchy Problem Are Not `substantial' Experimental Departures in This Sense, but Can Lead to Profound New Understanding.
02006-02100 (95 Years): An All-New Star Wars Film Will Be Released to Theatres This Century
02005-02012 (7 Years): If the next President of the USA Will Be a Democrat And/or a Female, the US's Anual GPD Growth, Major Wall Street Share Indices (Dow Jones, NASDAQ Comp.) by the End of the Term in 2012 Will Be Higher, Unemployment Rate Lower Than Now. The Death Toll of US Soldiers in Foreign Countries and the Numbers of Terror Attacks in Western Countries Will Be Lower.
02005-02009 (4 Years): Google Will Face Antitrust Proceedings from the DOJ or a Challenge to a Merger or Acquisition by the FTC
02003-02013 (10 Years): Barring an Unexpected Decline in Human Numbers from Current Levels, Biodiversity Will Not Reverse Its Downward Trend, Air and Water Pollution Will Not Reverse Their Increasing Trends,(All according to World Resources Institute Data) and the WHO Will Not Report a Decrease in the Percentage of Humans With Persistent Illnesses.
02002-02015 (13 Years): Music CDs Compatible With Current (2002) CD Players Will Still Be Sold Regularly in 2015
02013-02015 (2 Years): By 2015 Tesla Motors Will Sell a <$30,000 Electric Car.
02011-02015 (4 Years): A Data-Driven, Objective Model Can Identify Startups Likely to Succeed and Startups Likely to Fail
02012-02017 (5 Years): I Predict That Google Will Introduce a Google Currency That Will Be an Alternative to All Currencies and That This Will Become the Leading Currency in the World by 2017
02011-02013 (2 Years): By the End of 2013, the Censorship and Domestic Monitoring System, Known As the Great Firewall System, Will Become Ineffective at Stopping Chinese Internet Users from Accessing Global Information.
02011-02013 (2 Years): By November 30th 02013, Andrea Rossi's E-Cat Technology Will Be Widely Accepted to Produce a COP of 6 or Above
02011-02016 (5 Years): By January 21, 2016, Facebook Will Not Have the Largest Market Share of Social Network Users Who Log in at Least Once per Day.
02010-02015 (5 Years): Friends of the Earth (US) Will No Longer Be Fighting against Nuclear Power by December 2015.
02010-??? (? Years): Christopher Hitchens Will Publically Confess His Sins to God, However He Finds Him between Now and the Time of His Passing, and Accept Christ As His Lord, Savior and Pathway to God. He Will Do This in a Meaningful rather than a Flippant, Facetious or Hypothetical Fashion, by Surrendering His Earthly Will to God, With All of His Heart and Soul.
02009-02011 (2 Years): California State Government Will Dissolve in Default
02009-02013 (4 Years): Google Earth / Street View Will Become a Video Gaming Platform, Where Users Can Play Grand Theft Auto-Like Games Virtually in Their Own Neighborhoods. Users Will Be Able to Upload GPS-Coupled Renderings of the Insides of Buildings. Users Will Allow Others to Virtually Enter Their Homes, to Pass beyond the Public Street View by Entering a Code Serving As a Key to Unlock Their Front Door.
02009-02013 (5 Years): By 2013 EBay Will Either (1) Rename Itself Paypal, or (2) Spin Paypal Out
02008-02012 (4 Years): By 2012, Current Venture Capital- and Privately-Funded Methods of DNA Sequencing, Independent of Any Additional ‘Incremental Improvements’ Will Be Made Obsolete by the Technology Described in The Economist (October 25th - 31st 2008; US Print Edition, P.82) and at Http://www.5bases.com.
02008-02016 (8 Years): By the End of the 2016 Olympic Games, Swimmer Michael Phelps Will Be Convicted for Doping at the 2008 Olympic Games.
02008-02015 (7 Years): By 2015 the Majority of People Who Make Predictions on This Site Will Have Had Their Genomes Sequenced
02008-02011 (3 Years): In 2010 More Diesel Passenger Vehicles Will Be Sold in the US Than Hybrids
02008-02015 (7 Years): Immortal Mice by 2015
02007-02015 (8 Years): Within Two Generations, the Iranian People Will Become an Anchor of Freedom for the Middle East
02006-02010 (4 Years): There Will Be a Quantum Computer With over 100 Qubits of Processing Capability Sold Either As a Hardware System or Whose Use Is Made Available As a Commercial Service by Dec 31, 2010
02006-02016 (10 Years): Within a Decade Wal-Mart (WMT) Shares Cease to Be Listed on the NYSE As a Result Bankruptcy, Being Taken Over/private, or Being Delisted by the Exchange
02006-02012 (6 Years): Steve Jobs Will Be Nominated for Presdident of the United States, by One of the Two Major Political Parties in 2012.
02006-02012 (7 Years): By 2012, Scientists Will Have Announced a Cure for Breast Cancer and Mastectomies Will Have Become Almost Obsolete
02005-02013 (8 Years): Many Types of Cancer Will Be Treated Effectively With Biofeedback Coupled With Imaging Techniques, such as FMRI.
02005-02010 (5 Years): Within the next 5 Years, Google Employees Will Become Dissatisfied, and Kick-Start a New Wave of New Technology and Prosperity in Silicon Valley
02005-02007 (2 Years): In 2009, WinFX Will Be the Dominant API for Application Development on All Major PC Platforms.
02005-02010 (4 Years): Within 5 Years All Power Plants Will Be Converted to Full-Spectrum Laser-Fired---All Oil/gas/coal/nuclear Power Plants Will Be Obsolete and Retired
02005-02010 (5 Years): By 2010 More Than 50 Percent of Books Worldwide Will Be Read on Digital Devices rather than in Print Form
02005-02010 (5 Years): By 2010 More Than 50 Percent of Books Sold Worldwide Will Be Printed on Demand at the Point of Sale in the Form of Library-Quality Paperbacks
02004-02009 (5 Years): Because the Israelis and the Palestinians Are Fighting As Much over the Control of Water Resources As They Are Fighting over the Control of Land, Waterbag Technology Will Be given Credit for Being the Major Economic Tool for Implementing an Interium Economic Peace Agreement between Israel and the Palestinian Authority by the Year 2007, As Is Described in the Pages from the Novel, WATER, WAR AND PEACE, That Is Featured on the Website: Www.waterbag.com.
02004-02006 (3 Years): By 2006 a Single-Answer Technology Other Than Google Will Emerge As the Favored Answering Service and Will Remain in Power for at Least Two Years
02003-02015 (12 Years): Microsoft Will Be Have the Largest Market Capitalization of Any Publicly Traded Company in the World by 2015
02003-02005 (2 Years): As of March 7th, 2005, Osama Bin Laden Is Dead
02002-02012 (11 Years): By the End of 2012, More Than 50% of the Root Servers on the Internet Will Be Located outside the United States
02002-02012 (10 Years): In 2012, 75 Percept of All Revenue for Enterprise Software Companies Will Be from Subscription Fees rather than License Fees.
02015-02020 (6 Years): In the Time from Now Until Dec. 31st 2020, Apple Inc. Will Not Start to Manufacture or Sell Cars (Self Driving or Not) nor Will They Supply Components - Hardware or Software - to Car Manufacturers.
02012-02016 (4 Years): By the End of Obama's Second Term As President, The Central Bank of China Will Publicly Announce That They Have an Amount of Gold in Reserve That Is Greater Than Germany's
02011-02013 (3 Years): By Dec 31, 2013 the Total Volume of Payments Denominated in Facebook Credits (Or Any Replacement Introduced by Facebook) Will Meet or Exceed $16 Billion in a Three Month Period
02009-02011 (2 Years): By the End of 2011 It Will Be Clear That the World Financial Crisis of 2009 Had No Effect on the Rate of Urbanization in the Developing World, but It Led to Growth of the Informal Economy in Those Countries and to Increases in Global Crime
02009-??? (? Years): If the LHC Does Not Find the Higgs Boson or Other "New Physics", Then Einstein's "Last Twenty Years" Will Eventually Be Fully Vindicated, including the Most Natural Cosmological Extension of General Relativity to a Finite, Deterministic Universe.
02008-02013 (5 Years): The Iraqi Dinar Will Revalue, and Reach a Value of 3 Dinars per 1 U.S. Dollar, or Better, by November 6/2013. Currently, as of November 6/08, the Exchange Rate Is 1176 Iraqi Dinars, per U.S. Dollar.
02008-??? (? Years): 2007 Will Be the Historical Peak Year for US Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
02008-02011 (3 Years): By 2011 a Mother Will Have the Entire Genome Sequence of Her Unborn Child from Her Own Blood
02008-02014 (6 Years): Hurricanes in Florida Will Be Less in 2005–2015, Than the Average of the Preceding Three Decades
02008-02010 (3 Years): The U.S. Will Not Pull All of Its Troops out of Iraq Until the 10 Largest Corporations in the U.S. Use Their Influence to Make It Happen. I Don't See This As a Possibility Until After Nov. 9, 2010 the next Mid-Term Elections.
02006-02010 (3 Years): By 2010, the Use of Dial-Up Modems Will Represent Less Than 5 Percent of All Internet Access (Represented As a Percentage of All Households) in the United States. As Part of This Prediction, I Expect That at That Time, Dial-Up Service Will Cost Significantly More Than the Slowest Alternative, Which Will Be Substantially Faster Than Dial-Up.
By Year 2036, There Will Be at Least 1 Man Alive in the U.S. Who Has Fathered 150 Children
02006-02010 (4 Years): The World Will Not Reach 'Peak Oil' by 2010. I Have Invited Jeremy Leggett, a Champion of the Peak Oil Concept and Author of "Half Gone: Oil, Gas, Hot Air and the Global Energy Crisis", to Bet against This Prediction
02005-02015 (10 Years): By 2015, Standardized Tests for High School Students in Every State of the United States Will Directly Evaluate Students' Understanding of the Differences between Scientific Laws, Scientific Theories and the Kinds of Things Often Called Theories outside the Scientific Community
02005-02008 (2 Years): I Predict That This Year Will Have the Greatest Snowfall on Record, Worldwide
02005-02015 (10 Years): The International Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report Will Conclude It Is Likely, or More Than Likely, That Human-Caused Global Warming Has Increased Hurricane Intensity in the 1995–2005 Time Period.
02004-02006 (2 Years): Within Two Years, at Least Two or More Waterbags, Connected by the World's Strongest Zipper into a Train, Carrying Total of at Least One and One Half Million Gallons of Fresh Water, Will Be Successfully Towed from Washington State, under the Golden Gate Bridge into San Francisco Bay, and Then South to Santa Monica Bay in Los Angeles. In Five Years There Will Be at Least One Hundred Waterbags Operating in Various Locations around the …
02002-02012 (10 Years): By 2012 Scientists Will Not Have Developed an Explanation for How Images on the Shroud of Turin Came to Be on the Cloth -An Explanation That Satisfies All of the Physical and Chemical Properties of the Images and Does Not Violate Basic Laws of Physics.
02002-02007 (5 Years): By 2007, the U.S. Government Will Intervene to Prevent at Least One of the Incumbent Local Exchange Carriers (ILECs)/Regional Bell Operating Companines (RBOCs) (E.g. Verizon, SBC, Bell South, and EXCEPTING Qwest) from Filing for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Protection.
02014-02019 (5 Years): By the End of 2017 a Major Protest Will Feature a Drone versus Drone Aerial Confrontation.
02013-02018 (5 Years): Kickstarter Will Still Be Its Own Independent Company by January 1st 2018.
https://longbets.org/133/
02014-??? (? Years): England and the United States Will Be Unified As One Kingdom.
02013-02020 (7 Years): Iranian Women Will Become the Dominant Force in Iranian Politics by 2020 and Kick out the Concept of a Supreme Leader
02012-02022 (10 Years): By 02022, Aether Physics (Or Its Equivalent) Will Take the Place of General Relativity and Quantum Theory
02010-02030 (20 Years): Within Twenty Years, Evidence of Human-Induced Anthropogenic Global Warming and Its Deleterious Effects Will Be Unequivocal
02008-02025 (16 Years): By 2025, The Aether Physics Model Will Not Have Replaced Quantum Physics and the Theory of Relativity As the Standard Model.
02008-02025 (16 Years): By 2025, Stellar Nucleosynthesis Will No Longer Be Considered As the Main Source of Heat and Light of Stars by a Majority of Scientists.
02008-02025 (16 Years): By 2025, The Giant Impact Hypothesis Will No Longer Be the Dominant Scientific Hypothesis for the Formation of the Moon.
02008-02025 (16 Years): By 2025, Quantum Field Theory Will No Longer Be Part of The Standard Model of Particle Physics
02008-02025 (16 Years): By 2025, Albert Einstein's Theory of Relativity Will Be Considered an Untenable Explanation for Light and Gravity by a Majority of Scientists
02008-02025 (16 Years): By 2025, New Astronomical Observations and Theories Will Render the Big Bang an Untenable Explanation for the Origin of the Universe
02007-02025 (18 Years): By 2025, Products of Artistic Activity Will No Longer Been Treated As Autonomous, Transcendent, Intrinsically Value-Laden Objects and Artists Will Recognize Themselves As Operating within Social, Political, Economic, and Cultural Frameworks Which Directly Influence the Conferred Value of Their Artistic Creations.
02007-02020 (13 Years): Until 2020 First Effective and Efficient Meta Entities (Services, Individuals, Inventions) Which Are Able to Integrate and Balance All Main Aspects/elements of Civilization according to AQAL Will Be Fully Functional and Consequently Start to Build Functional Civilization (Absence of War, Sustainable Energy and Information Chains)
02006-02029 (24 Years): The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, Some Form of International Federation or Global Governmental Structure Will Emerge That Can Exercise Ultimate Authority over World Affairs
02005-02015 (10 Years): There Will Be a 'Commercial-Free', Premium Internet Service Offering by a Relatively Unknown Company within 10 Years
02005-02025 (20 Years): I Predict That Global Warming Denialists such as MIT Professor Richard Lindzen Will Be Shown to Be Wrong over the next 20 Years As Global Warming Continues. Specifically, I Believe the Scientific Consensus That Temperatures Are Likely to Increase by .3℃ over the next 20 Is More Accurate Than the Lindzen/denialist Position That Temperatures Are As Likely to Decrease As Increase
02004-02025 (21 Years): The Concept of Time As a Linear Dimension Will Be Replaced by One of Time As a Polarity between Content and Context
02004-02020 (16 Years): That by 2020 It Will Be Possible and Desirable for Urban Houses to Have a Room in the House Designed For, and Dedicated To, Producing a Household's Entire Water Supply. This Will Be Achievable through Condensation (A Terarium Effect) and Using Solar Panel Roof Tiles to Generate the Energy to Produce, Purify and Filter the Water.
02004-02024 (20 Years): You Are Immortal
02003-??? (? Years): DNA Emulation
02002-02020 (18 Years): By 2020 a Completely Propellantless (No Material Particles Expelled for Propulsion) or "Field Propulsion-Type" Aerospace Vehicle Will Land on the Moon.
02002-02025 (23 Years): Major Online Internet Useage Research Firms Will Record That over 3 Billion People in 2025 Managed Their Incoming and Outgoing Digital Information Using a Graphical User Interface Based on Quadrant Theory - As Described in Marshall McLuhan's "Tetrad" Model in Laws of Media, Ken Wilber's Holon in Sex, Ecology Spirituality, and R Buckminster Fuller's Tetrahedral Structures in Synergetics.
Prediction Markets
Most Recent Predictions by Gwern
02004-02020 (17 Years): By 2020, 75% of All Incremental New Generation Will Come from Renewable/sustainable Energy in the U.S.
02009-02020 (11 Years): By 2020, GE Crops Will Be Grown on 10 Fold More Acreage Than They Are Today, Will Be Widely Accepted by Consumers and Will Have Clearly Benefited the Goals of Sustainable Agriculture
02013-02020 (7 Years): By 2020, across at Least 25% of the Continental US, the Cost of New Solar or Wind Will Be Lower Than the Cost of Either New Coal or New Natural Gas
02007-02020 (13 Years): By 2020, Historians Will Agree That the Start of the 21st Century Also Marked the Beginning of the "Second" or "New Renaissance."
02002-02020 (18 Years): By 2020, in Real or Artificial Life, Sustainable Evolutionary Progress in a Genetically Closed System Will Not Have Been Demonstrated
02011-02020 (9 Years): ‘By December 31, 2020, Synthetic Solar Energy (Fusion) Will Have Been Shown to Be a Technically Feasible, by an Experiment Demonstrating a Controlled Fusion Reaction Producing More Harnessable Energy Than Was Used to Ignite It.’
02002-02020 (18 Years): By the Year 2020 Solar Electricity Will Be As Cheap or Cheaper Than That Produced by Fossil Fuels
02004-02020 (16 Years): By the Year 2020 the Technology Will Exist That Will Allow for the "Faxing" (Teleportation- Sending/receiving) of Actual Inanimate Objects, such as Text Books, Clothing, Jewelery and the like
02002-02020 (18 Years): By the Year 2020, the Tickets to Space Travel - at the Least to Moon, Will Be Available over the Counter.
02010-02019 (9 Years): China's Current Regime Will Be Overthrown or Reformed (Another Political Party Come into Power) Before 2020
02005-02020 (16 Years): A March 2004 Article Stated: "More Than 3.5 Billion Years After Nature Transformed Non-Living Matter into Living Things, Populating Earth With a Cornucopia of Animals and Plants, Scientists Say They Are Finally Ready to Try Their Hand at Creating Life. . . It Is a Dream Long Pursued by Scientists Who Now Believe That It May Be Possible to Create the First Artificial Unit of Life in the next 5 to 10 Years."
02008-02020 (12 Years): Self-Replicating Manufacturing Machines Will Be Commonplace by 2020.
02013-02020 (7 Years): ‘The First Ice-Free Arctic Day (As Defined by NSIDC) Will Occur by the End of 2020.’
02013-02020 (7 Years): By 2020, Urban and Vertical Farms Will Replace 10% of City Produce in Chicago
02015-02020 (5 Years): Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan Will Be Found Guilty at a Court of Law or Will Flee from the Country by 2020
02016-02020 (5 Years): The CFR (Delivered) China Price of Iron Ore (62% Fe) As Published by Metal Bulletin And/or Platts, Will Surpass $200 USD per Tonne
02011-02021 (10 Years): A Commercial Airliner Will Be Destroyed by Terrorists Hacking the Software of Either the Aircraft or an External System such as Air Traffic Control
02016-02021 (5 Years): The Rate of Fatalities for Seafarers Will Be Ten times That for Shore Based Occupations in 02021
02012-02022 (10 Years): In Ten Years, People Will Be Watching More Live Video Than Pre-Recorded.
02008-02023 (15 Years): Patents Will Be Abolished by at Least Two Leading Economies within the next 20 Years for All Areas except Pharmaceuticals
02008-02023 (15 Years): Roe v. Wade Will Not Celebrate a 50th Anniversary
02008-02023 (15 Years): Advances in Personal Aviation Will Cause the Cost of Land in Big Sur, Ca and Other Remote Areas within 250mi of Major Metropolitan Cities to at Least Triple within the next 15 Years - Outperforming the S&p 500 over That Period.
02002-02024 (22 Years): That by 2024 "Artificial" Life Emerging Somewhere out of the Soup of Human Technology Will Be given a Latin Taxonomic Name by Biologists and Others and Declared Viable for Study
02004-02024 (20 Years): US Accounting and Banking Regulations Will Not Require That Loan Portfolios Held in the "Banking Book" Be Marked to Market Before 2024
02014-02024 (10 Years): Apple Will Release an Electric Car within the next Decade
02010-02025 (15 Years): A Third Party Candidate Will Be Elected President of the United States.
02003-02025 (22 Years): By 2025 at Least 50% of All U.S. Citizens Residing within the United States Will Have Some Form of Technology Embedded in Their Bodies for the Purpose of Tracking and Identification
02003-02025 (22 Years): By 2025, at Least 25 of the 30 Stocks Currently in the Dow Jones Industrial Average Will Be Dropped from the Index and Replaced With Other Companies
02006-02025 (18 Years): By 2025, More Than 50% of Desktop Computers in the World Will Be Running an Open-Source Operating System
02007-02025 (18 Years): By 2025, the Very First Human Being Will Be Cloned and This Event Will Be Accepted by the Most People
02006-02024 (19 Years): By the End of 2024 There Will Be a Single Global Currency Managed by a Global Central Bank within a Global Monetary Union.(3-G) This Currency Will Be Legal Tender in Countries Which Comprise at Least 51% of the World's GDP.
02013-02025 (12 Years): ‘Neither the Google Car nor Any Other Fully Autonomous Car Will Be Marketed to the General Public by 2025’
02009-02027 (17 Years): The Nation With the Highest (Nominal) Gdp in the World in 2025 Will Be China.
02013-02025 (12 Years): By 2025, the Underground Economy in the USA Will Be worth More Than $6 Trillion—It’s Estimated to Be around $2 Trillion Today.
02014-02025 (12 Years): By 2025, Oil and Gas Companies Will Find That Their Carbon Is Much More Valuable As a Manufacturing Source Material Than As a Waste Product.
02015-02025 (10 Years): Due to a Favorable Political & Social Conditions, India's Economy Will Grow over the next 10 Years, Specifically Measured through Growth of Fairfax India (FIH.U), an Investment Holding Company. The Company's Closing Price on May 5, 02015 Was USD$ 11.50. I Predict Fairfax India Will Earn, on Average, an Annual Compound Rate of Return of at Least 15% (Including Capital Gains and Dividends) over the next 10 Years (May 6, 2015 to May 5, 2025).
02015-02025 (10 Years): The June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and Unemployment Rate, Reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Will Be, Respectively above 60 Percent and below 7.5 Percent
02016-02029 (14 Years): By December 31 02029 One of the World's Top Ten Car Manufacturers in 02015 (Volkswagen, Toyota, Daimler, GM, Ford, Fiat Chrysler, Honda, Nissan, BMW, SAIC) Will Stop Manufacturing Cars Powered by Internal Combustion Engines
02007-02030 (23 Years): Long Bets RCH #2: By 2030 The Prediction: The Great Contest of the 21st Century ? the Individual versus Society and the State ? Will Progress Much past My 2020 Long Bets Prediction of Effective Computerized Individual Citizen Profiling, With the Full Maturation of the Nascent, but Extremely Promising Studies of Brain, Mind and Personality As Revealed by the Many Different Brain Scanning Devices Now Being Intensively Studied and Developed. These Scans - and Their …
02009-02030 (21 Years): A Nuclear Explosive Weapon Will Be Used in War or Terrorism.
02002-02030 (28 Years): By 2030 All Surgical Anesthesia Will Be Administered and Monitored by Computers, With No Need for Professional Medical Supervision beyond the Surgeon
02007-02029 (23 Years): China Will Break Apart by 2030
02012-02030 (18 Years): I Predict That by 2030, China Will Lay an Ownership Claim to the Entire Moon.
02013-02030 (17 Years): By 2030, 30% of Libraries Existing Today Will Not Have Walls (Buildings).
02013-02030 (17 Years): By 2030, the Apostrophe Will Have Functionally Disappeared from American English
02007-02030 (23 Years): That the Average Level of Innovation between 2025 and 2035 Exceeds the Average Level of Innovation of the past 5 Years (2002–2007.) I Suggest Using Metrics As Determined and Published by the US Dept of Commerce, Economics & Statistics Administration As Developed by the Measuring Innovation in the 21st Century Economy Advisory Committee (Www.innovationmetric.gov) but Am Open to Alternative Suggestions.
02013-02031 (18 Years): The Average Annual Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) Computed from US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Data for Nevada during 1981–2030 Will Be the Same or Higher (That Is, Conditions Will Not Be Drier) Than during the Previous 50 Years (1931–1980)
02012-02032 (20 Years): By 02032, in Response to Studies Correlating Interactive Media Consumption With Impairment of Cognitive Development, the United States Congress Will Have Passed Legislation Restricting Access by Minors to Digital Interfaces.
02012-02032 (21 Years): By 2032 You Will Be Able to Purchase a Mass Produced Car That Can Drive Itself to a Designated Destination.
02007-02035 (28 Years): By the Year 2035 Non-Invasive Devices Will Allow Us to Interface With the Internet (Including Accessing Information in a Similar Sense to Recalling Memories) Using Electro-Stimulus from Neuron Signals
02008-02035 (27 Years): One or More Space Agencies Will Send a Manned Mission to Mars by 2035
02009-02035 (25 Years): There Will Be a Chernobyl National Park by 2035
02015-02035 (21 Years): The United States Will NOT Adopt a Single-Payer Health Care System Before the End of 02035
02015-02036 (21 Years): The Amount of Geologically-Derived Crude Oil Consumed by the United States in 2035 Will Be Greater Than the Amount Consumed in 2015
Pageviews Analysis
Google Trends for ‘Long Bets’
https://hn.algolia.com/?query=%22Long%20Bets%22&sort=byDate&prefix&page=0&dateRange=all&type=all
The Fall Of Intrade And The Business Of Betting On Real Life
How Sure Are You?
Archiving URLs
Truthcoin Protocol on BTC
Gnosis
Turn 800 marks into 115,000 euros: the tenant gets the deposit back: A plaintiff has fought in court to get back a rent deposit paid by her parents more than 60 years ago. The amount has grown enormously since then
Bettor's Agreement
Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2013
https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/wp2017-25.pdf
https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2011ltr.pdf
https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2020ltr.pdf
Long Bets by Confidence Level