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  1. 2012-gwern-notes.txt

  2. Was Nate Silver the Most Accurate 2012 Election Pundit?

  3. ​ prediction-market#long-shot-bias

    [Transclude the forward-link's context]

  4. Presidential Election of 2008, Electoral and Popular Vote Summary

  5. 2012 United States Presidential Election: Difference between Revisions

  6. 2012 US Senate Election Results

  7. A Technical Explanation of ‘Technical Explanation’

  8. ​ Prediction Markets

  9. https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2010/11/03/some_thoughts_o_8/

  10. https://sgo.sagepub.com/content/5/2/2158244015579724

  11. https://academic.oup.com/poq/article/79/2/594/2277466

  12. Disentangling Bias and Variance in Election Polls

  13. 2016 Election Forecast: Who Will Be President?

  14. Wikipedia Bibliography:

    1. Nate Silver

    2. Brier score  :

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score

    3. Root-mean-square deviation

    4. Scoring rule § Logarithmic score  :

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scoring_rule#Logarithmic_score

    5. Andrew Gelman