--- title: December 2014 News created: 2014-11-30 status: finished previous: /newsletter/2014/11 next: /newsletter/2014/13 confidence: log cssExtension: dropcaps-de-zs backlink: False ... This is the December 2014 edition of [the Gwern.net newsletter](https://gwern.substack.com/ "'Gwern.net newsletter (Substack subscription page)', Branwen 2013"); previous, [November](/newsletter/2014/11 "'November 2014 News', Branwen 2014"). This is a collation of links and summary of major changes, overlapping with [Changelog](/changelog). Thanks to my donors on Gratipay! # Writings Nothing finished this month. # Media ## Links **Genetics**: - [Everything Is Heritable]{.smallcaps}: - ["Genome-wide meta-analysis identifies six novel loci associated with habitual coffee consumption"](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4388784/), The Coffee and Caffeine Genetics Consortium et al 2014 - ["Results of a 'GWAS Plus': General Cognitive Ability Is Substantially Heritable and Massively Polygenic"](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0112390), Kirkpatrick et al 2014 - ["Understanding the Genetics of Intelligence: Can Height Help? Can Corn Oil?"](https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.926.2367&rep=rep1&type=pdf), Johnson 2010 - ["The impact of neighbourhood deprivation on adolescent violent criminality and substance misuse: A longitudinal, quasi-experimental study of the total Swedish population"](https://ije.oxfordjournals.org/content/42/4/1057.full.pdf+html), Sariaslan et al 2013 **Politics/religion**: - ["Why the World Is Not Falling Apart: Never mind the headlines. We've never lived in such peaceful times."](https://slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2014/12/the_world_is_not_falling_apart_the_trend_lines_reveal_an_increasingly_peaceful.single.html), Pinker & Mack; ["Good News You May Have Missed in 2014"](https://www.gatesnotes.com/Year-in-Review-2014), Gates - ["Race and Justice: Much More Than You Wanted To Know"](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/11/25/race-and-justice-much-more-than-you-wanted-to-know/) - ["The Zen Predator of the Upper East Side"](https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2014/12/the-zen-predator-of-the-upper-east-side/383831/) - ["Police, Paramilitaries, Nationalists and Gangsters: The Processes of State Building in Korea"](https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/102333/jporteux_1.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y), Porteux 2013 - [_Sacculina_ parasite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sacculina) - ["Truncated transcript from today's SCOTUS argument"](https://courtneymilan.tumblr.com/post/46374496823/truncated-transcript-from-todays-scotus-argument) (parody) - ["Question 94. The relations of the saints towards the damned: Whether the blessed in heaven will see the sufferings of the damned?"](https://www.newadvent.org/summa/5094.htm) **Statistics/AI/meta-science**: - ["Contradicted and Initially Stronger Effects in Highly Cited Clinical Research"](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/201218), Ioannidis 2005 - ["A 'Sham Procedure' Leads to Disappointing Multiple Sclerosis News"](https://archive.nytimes.com/6thfloor.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/20/a-sham-procedure-leads-to-disappointing-m-s-news/) - [The power of placebos: when water feels like LSD.](/doc/psychedelic/lsd/1955-abramson.pdf "'Lysergic Acid Diethylamide (LSD-25): Xv. the Effects Produced By Substitution of a Tap Water Placebo', Abramson et al 1955") - ["What Went Wrong? Reflections on Science by Observation and _The Bell Curve_"](https://kilthub.cmu.edu/articles/What_Went_Wrong_Reflections_on_Science_by_Observation_and_The_Bell_Curve/6493139/files/11937863.pdf#page=2), Glymour 1998 (correlation & causation) - ["Full publication of results initially presented in abstracts (Review)"](/doc/statistics/bias/publication/2008-scherer.pdf "'Full publication of results initially presented in abstracts', Scherer et al 2007"), Scherer et al 2008 (publication bias & incorrect papers) - ["Prisons Are Built With Bricks Of Law And Brothels With Bricks Of Religion, But That Doesn't Prove A Causal Relationship"](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/11/21/prisons-are-built-with-bricks-of-law-and-brothels-with-bricks-of-religion-but-that-doesnt-prove-a-causal-relationship/) - ["Effects of remote, retroactive intercessory prayer on outcomes in patients with bloodstream infection: randomized controlled trial"](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC61047/), Leibovici 2001 ([Norvig comments](https://norvig.com/prayer.html "Evaluating Extraordinary Claims: Mind Over Matter? Or Mind Over Mind?")) - ["What effect size would you expect?"](http://blog.dansimons.com/2013/03/what-effect-size-would-you-expect.html) - ["On the distribution of time-to-proof of mathematical conjectures"](https://arxiv.org/abs/1202.3936), Hisano & Sornette 2012 **Psychology/biology**: - ["Thank you for doing something ambiguously between smoking and not smoking"](https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/03/28/thank-you-for-doing-something-ambiguously-between-smoking-and-not-smoking/) - ["CBD in Colorado: Seeking a marijuana miracle [for children with severe epilepsy]"](https://extras.denverpost.com/stateofhope/) ("The question is not whether it is ethical to run a randomized trial, but whether it is ethical to *not* run a randomized trial", I found myself thinking again and again in this sad and pitiable story of being fooled by randomness.) - ["Morningness-eveningness and educational outcomes: The lark has an advantage over the owl at high school"](/doc/melatonin/2013-preckel.pdf "'Morningness-eveningness and educational outcomes: the lark has an advantage over the owl at high school', Preckel et al 2012"), Preckel et al 2013 - ["What Do You Desire?"](https://www.nplusonemag.com/issue-16/essays/what-do-you-desire/) (on the porn company Kink.com) - ["Suicide: An Economic Approach"](/doc/psychiatry/2004-becker.pdf), Becker & Posner 2004 - ["The Graying of Academia: Will It Reduce Scientific Productivity?"](https://www.crema-research.ch/papers/2014-06.pdf), Stroebe 2010 - ["Can Behavioral Tools Improve Online Student Outcomes? Experimental Evidence from a Massive Open Online Course"](https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.738.2362&rep=rep1&type=pdf), Patterson 2014 - ["Direct Effect of Sunshine on Suicide"](/doc/psychiatry/depression/2014-vyssoki.pdf), Vyssoki et al 2014 - ["The future of teratology research is in vitro"](/doc/statistics/bias/animal/2005-bailey.pdf), Bailey et al 2005 - ["Spaced Repetition and Mnemonics Enable Recall of Multiple Strong Passwords"](https://arxiv.org/abs/1410.1490), Blocki et al 2014 - ["Subu Must Die: How a nation of junkies went cold turkey"](https://newrepublic.com/article/113051/georgias-war-drugs-how-its-subutex-addiction-ended) - [Golden Gate Bridge suicides](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2003/10/13/jumpers?currentPage=all "Jumpers: The fatal grandeur of the Golden Gate Bridge") **Technology**: - ["Human Performance"](https://irp.fas.org/agency/dod/jason/human.pdf), 2008 JASON - [Spreadsheet mistakes](https://eusprig.org/horror-stories.htm) - ["Scholarly Context Not Found: One in Five Articles Suffers from Reference Rot"](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0115253), Klein et al 2014 - ["The Hundred-Year Language"](https://paulgraham.com/hundred.html) - [M50 Ontos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M50_Ontos) - [Photoacoustic spectroscopy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photoacoustic_spectroscopy) - ["Turing Drawings": flowing sand](http://www.wry.me/hacking/Turing-Drawings/#3,6,2,2,3,2,4,0,0,1,0,2,1,2,1,1,0,1,2,3,2,3,0,2,1,0,2,5,3,2,5,2,2,4,1,1,5,0,2,4,3,0,4,0,0,1,1,2,1,3,2,1,0,2,2,0) - [The NSA copes with a volcano](https://www.nsa.gov/portals/75/documents/news-features/declassified-documents/cryptologs/cryptolog_126.pdf) **Economics**: - [College major salary premiums](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2013/04/major_premium.html) - ["What Are Foundations For?"](https://www.bostonreview.net/forum/foundations-philanthropy-democracy/) (principal-agent conflicts; against perpetuities) - ["A lucky little fish turns out to be the solution to iron deficiency among women in Cambodia, a problem solved by a University of Guelph researcher."](https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/canadian-s-lucky-iron-fish-saves-lives-in-cambodia/article_31e88687-aad4-5019-a3ba-4a999866a87b.html) - ["Should Psychological Neuroscience Research Be Funded?"](http://popsych.org/should-psychological-neuroscience-research-be-funded/) ([discussion](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MN2f4zdtFvD6Rb5YM/link-should-psychological-neuroscience-research-be-funded)) - [Kids for cash scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kids_for_cash_scandal) - ["Smart companies try to commoditize their products' complements."](https://www.joelonsoftware.com/2002/06/12/strategy-letter-v/ "'Joel on Software: Strategy Letter V', Spolsky 2002") ([commoditize your complement](/complement "'Laws of Tech: Commoditize Your Complement', Branwen 2018")) - ["The Coase Theorem is false: contracts depend on tort law"](https://unenumerated.blogspot.com/2008/05/coase-theorem-is-false-contracts-depend.html) - ["One Kind of Lawlessness: Estimating the Welfare Cost of Somali Piracy"](https://www.trfetzer.com/welfare-cost-somalian-piracy/) **Philosophy**: - ["Bayesian Adjustment Does Not Defeat Existential Risk Charity"](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JyH7ezruQbC2iWcSg/bayesian-adjustment-does-not-defeat-existential-risk-charity) ("they strain at the gnat of the prior who swallow the camel of the likelihood") - ["Transhumanist Fables"](https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/05/27/transhumanist-fables/) - ["Study: Wolf Attacks Still Leading Cause Of Death In U.S."](https://www.theonion.com/study-wolf-attacks-still-leading-cause-of-death-in-u-s-1819574862) - ["Even More Aphorisms and Ten-Second Essays from Vectors 3.0"](/doc/philosophy/2010-richardson-bythenumbers-vectors30 "'Vectors 3.0: Even More Aphorisms and Ten-Second Essays', Richardson 2018"), James Richardson **Misc**: - ["Limits"](https://thefloatinglibrary.com/2008/12/09/limits-j-l-borges/), Jorge Luis Borges - [Great mistakes in history: the scuttling of the German navy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scapa_Flow#The_scuttling_of_the_German_fleet) - [Hollywood Archaeology: _The Super Mario Bros. Movie_; Unearthing a major disaster to learn the lessons held within](https://grantland.com/features/the-strange-case-super-mario-bros-movie/) - ["On Pins and Needles: Stylist Turns Ancient Hairdo Debate on Its Head"](https://web.archive.org/web/20131104015018/https://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887324900204578286272195339456) ## Books **Nonfiction**: - [_Savage Continent: Europe in the Aftermath of World War II_](https://www.amazon.com/Savage-Continent-Europe-Aftermath-World/dp/125003356X), Lowe ([review](/review/book#savage-continent-lowe-2012)) - [_Clear and Simple as the Truth: Writing Classic Prose_](https://www.amazon.com/Clear-Simple-As-Truth-Writing/dp/0691029172), Thomas & Turner ([review](/review/book#clear-and-simple-as-the-truth-thomas-1996); [online guide](https://classicprose.com/csguide.html)) **Fiction**: - [_Ra_](https://qntm.org/ra), Sam Hughes (hard SF web serial) - [_Un Lun Dun_](https://www.amazon.com/Un-Lun-Dun-China-Mieville/dp/0345458443), China Miéville ([review](/review/book#un-lun-dun-mieville-2007)) - [_Reject Hero_](https://rejecthero.wordpress.com/table-of-contents/), Farmerbob1 ([About](https://rejecthero.wordpress.com/about/); superhero web serial, set in a _Worm_-like universe; somewhat unusual conservative middle-aged perspective as he negotiates his way into the deeper magical universe, culminating in a fun twist _Jurassic Park_ ending with a sting; good fic but not great, and probably goes on too long) - [_Perseverance island: or, The Robinson Crusoe of the nineteenth century_](https://www.gutenberg.org/files/46128/46128-h/46128-h.htm), by Douglas Frazer ([review](/review/book#perseverance-island-frazar-2009)) - _CVN73 USS George Washington_ (manga; [review](/review/anime#george-washington)) ## Music **Touhou**: - ["Sixth Movement Dawn of East End"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dnircymksQ4) (MORRIGAN feat. 三澤秋; _Symphonic Tarantella "Lily" -Illusionary Waltz: Belladonna Lily-_ {M3-27}) [orchestral] - ["Fifth Movement 9th moon / Pale Indigo Dream"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDvHFUzcXGs) (MORRIGAN feat. 三澤秋; _Symphonic Tarantella "Lily" -Illusionary Waltz: Belladonna Lily-_ {M3-27}) [orchestral] - ["The Black Eyes"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fN1tw960890) (Swing Holic Band; _SWING HOLIC VOL.9_ {R9}) [jazz] - ["NEMESIS"](http://otokei-douj.in/tlmc/%5BSWING%20HOLIC%5D/2012.05.27%20%5BSWHC-0009%5D%20SWING%20HOLIC%20VOL.09%20%5B%E4%BE%8B%E5%A4%A7%E7%A5%AD9%5D/05%20%5bSanokan%5d%20NEMESIS.mp3) (Sanokan; _SWING HOLIC VOL.9_ {R9}) [brass] - ["ON FIRE"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4Bjxf14BMg) (Maurits"禅"Cornelis feat. Vivienne; _DANCE with WOLVES_ {C86}) [house] - ["Fantasia Nightbug"](https://www.dropbox.com/s/n884s878ur7ikd2/%E6%BF%80%E6%88%A6%E3%81%AE%E4%BA%BA-summerfestival-fantasianightbug.ogg) (激戦の人 feat. 迷犬; _Summer Festival_ {C86}) [Rock] - ["Eternal Steam Engine"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lmv1Fkroew) (Suzumu feat.Sae Tsukiyama; _Summer Festival_ {C86}) [vocal] - ["To the Limit"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0MzyRq4tcU) (あとぐる feat. Mai Kotoge; _悠啼 YU-NARI_ {C78}) [rock] **Doujin**: - ["Prelude (Instrumental)"](https://www.dropbox.com/s/5spvvj9a65nunm6/treow-kollectionoi-prelude.ogg) (Treow; _KOLLECTION+OI_ {2012}) [electronica] - ["A Longing"](https://www.dropbox.com/s/d71xl0hfg50gjjy/yuxukiwaga-evergreen-alonging.ogg) (yuxuki waga; _Evergreen_ {VM23}) [ambient] **Kantai Collection**: - ["ThroBBing (母港BGM)"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9Rr5Ixd5Wg) (W*M; _Splash!_ {C85}) [instrumental] **Vocaloid**: - ["Sunrise"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ipx4FkEqqXo) (Miku; akayaka; _KARENT presents Skylight Theater_ {Trans city}) [ambient] - ["トウキョウトガリ"](https://www.dropbox.com/s/9sw1jwdzz2lnb0b/kobayashionyx-log-%E3%83%88%E3%82%A6%E3%82%AD%E3%83%A7%E3%82%A6%E3%83%88%E3%82%AC%E3%83%AA.ogg?dl=0) (Miku; Kobayashi Onyx; _LOG_ {2010}) [electronic] - ["サイハテ(ver,LOG)"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6UwLxZGI5Dw) (Miku; Kobayashi Onyx; _LOG_ {2010}) [electronic] - ["Moon Walker"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLb8sIVf1pY) (Gumi & Piko; KTG; _FREEZE_ {2011}) [electronic] - ["Welcome to the Future"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmzqjM4b54E) (Miku; 青屋夏生; _Welcome to the Future_ {2014}) [Jpop/trance] - ["Light Falls"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=diGRRQfHmok) (Miku; yuxuki waga {2011}) [Jpop] - ["ヒトリの誕生日"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZalZT4iR1tQ?t=50s) (Miku; ため; _7 Kilometer_ {VM28}) [Jpop] - ["ルッキング・フォー・ザ・ヘヴン"](https://soundcloud.com/kamiura_kari/ver1-1) (Yukari; カミウラ, カミウラレコーズ; _Lavender and White Rose_ {2013}) [vocal]