--- title: October 2014 News created: 2014-09-29 status: finished previous: /newsletter/2014/09 next: /newsletter/2014/11 confidence: log cssExtension: dropcaps-de-zs backlink: False ... This is the October 2014 edition of [the Gwern.net newsletter](https://gwern.substack.com/ "'Gwern.net newsletter (Substack subscription page)', Branwen 2013"); previously, [September](/newsletter/2014/09 "'September 2014 News', Branwen 2014"). This is a collation of links and summary of major changes, overlapping with [Changelog](/changelog). Thanks to my donors on Gratipay. # Writings **QS**: - [Redshift self-experiment](/zeo/redshift "'Redshift sleep experiment', Branwen 2012"): screen-reddening software shifts bedtime forward by 20 minutes - [LLLT re-analysis](/nootropic/nootropics#sleep): no change in sleep as hypothesized by another LLLT user - [analysis](/2014-spirulina "'2014 Spirulina randomized self-experiment', Branwen 2014") of sceaduwe's spirulina/allergies self-experiment (no reduction in allergies) # Media ## Links **Genetics**: - [Everything Is Heritable]{.smallcaps}: - ["Common DNA Markers Can Account for More Than Half of the Genetic Influence on Cognitive Abilities"](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3652710/ "'Common DNA markers can account for more than half of the genetic influence on cognitive abilities', Plomin et al 2013"), Plomin et al 2013 - ["The high heritability of educational achievement reflects many genetically influenced traits, not just intelligence"](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4210287/), Krapohl et al 2014 - ["Estimating the Inbreeding Depression on Cognitive Behavior: A Population Based Study of Child Cohort"](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0109585), Fareed & Afzal 2014 - [Engineering]{.smallcaps}: - ["Growth, efficiency, and yield of commercial broilers from 1957, 1978, and 2005"](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4988556/), Zuidhof et al 2014 ([media](https://www.vox.com/xpress/2014/10/2/6875031/chickens-breeding-farming-boilers-giant "Chickens have gotten ridiculously large since the 1950s")) - ["Korea's Sooam Biotech Is the World's First Animal Cloning Factory"](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-10-22/koreas-sooam-biotech-is-the-worlds-first-animal-cloning-factory) **Politics/religion**: - ["Kim Philby and the Age of Paranoia"](https://www.nytimes.com/1994/07/10/magazine/kim-philby-and-the-age-of-paranoia.html) - ["The Hollow Men II: Some reflections on Westminster and Whitehall dysfunction"](https://dominiccummings.com/2014/10/30/the-hollow-men-ii-some-reflections-on-westminster-and-whitehall-dysfunction/), Dominic Cummings - ["In Front of Your Nose"](https://orwell.ru/library/articles/nose/english/e_nose), Orwell 1946 - ["Nothing in Moderation"](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/29/opinion/nothing-in-moderation.html) (Worth remembering in discussions of the Middle East that even in the USA, the *masses* are deeply illiberal, pro-statist, against rights, and extremist.) - [Newton and alchemy](https://mathshistory.st-andrews.ac.uk/Extras/Keynes_Newton/) - ["I Can Tolerate Anything Except The Outgroup"](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/09/30/i-can-tolerate-anything-except-the-outgroup/) - ["An Examination of Stereotype Threat Effects on Girls' Mathematics Performance"](https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/ganley-et-al.-stereotype-threat.pdf), Ganley et al 2013 **Statistics/AI/meta-science**: - ["How Many Scientists Fabricate and Falsify Research? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Survey Data"](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0005738), Fanelli 2009 - ["In half of the [placebo-controlled] studies, the results provide evidence against continued use of the investigated surgical procedures."](https://www.bmj.com/content/348/bmj.g3253 "'Use of placebo controls in the evaluation of surgery: systematic review', Wartolowska et al 2014") ([media](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/07/upshot/the-placebo-effect-doesnt-apply-just-to-pills.html)) - ["How to Make More Published Research True"](https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1001747), Ioannidis 2014 - ["Khan Academy: machine learning → measurable learning"](https://derandomized.com/post/51729670543/khan-academy-machine-learning-measurable) - ["Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics"](/doc/ai/scaling/2013-yudkowsky.pdf#miri), Yudkowsky 2013 ([discussion](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CZQuFoqgPXQawH9aL/new-report-intelligence-explosion-microeconomics)) - [Survivorship bias](https://youarenotsosmart.com/2013/05/23/survivorship-bias/) - [Writing math papers](https://gowers.wordpress.com/2013/04/14/answers-results-of-polls-and-a-brief-description-of-the-program/) - ["Against optimism about social science"](https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2013/05/06/against-optimism-about-social-science/) - [Classification through compression: PAQClass](https://code.google.com/archive/p/paqclass) - ["How often does it happen that the oldest person alive dies?"](https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/349155/how-often-does-it-happen-that-the-oldest-person-alive-dies/388131) - ["Is long-term calorie restriction in humans worth it?"](https://evolvinghealth.wordpress.com/2013/04/21/is-long-term-calorie-restriction-in-humans-worth-it/) (preliminary CALERIE results) - ["learnfun & playfun: A general technique for automating NES games"](http://tom7.org/mario/) ([paper](https://www.cs.cmu.edu/~tom7/mario/mario.pdf)) - [[How often does correlation=causality]{.smallcaps}](/correlation)? - ["Randomized versus historical controls for clinical trials"](/doc/statistics/causality/1982-sacks.pdf), Sacks et al 1982 - ["The Adequacy of Comparison Group Designs for Evaluations of Employment-Related Programs"](/doc/statistics/causality/1987-fraker.pdf), Fraker & Maynard 1987 - ["Choosing between randomized and non-randomised studies: a systematic review"](/doc/statistics/causality/1998-britton.pdf "'Choosing Between Randomized and Non-randomised Studies', Britton et al 1998"), Britton et al 1998 - ["A systematic review of comparisons of effect sizes derived from randomized and non-randomised studies"](/doc/statistics/causality/2000-maclehose.pdf "'Study design and estimates of effectiveness', MacLehose et al 2000"), MacLehose et al 2000 - ["Randomisation to protect against selection bias in healthcare trials (Cochrane Methodology Review)"](/doc/statistics/causality/2011-odgaardjensen.pdf), Odgaard-Jensen et al 2011 - ["A weight of evidence approach to causal inference"](https://www.uc.pt/en/fmuc/phdhs/courses/Epidemiology/A_weight_of_evidence_approach_to_causal_inference.pdf), Swaen & van Amelsvoort 2009 (circular reasoning & [how *not* to do causal inference](/note/statistic#correlationcausation-in-cancer-research)) **Psychology/biology**: - ["Deliberate practice: Is that all it takes to become an expert?"](/doc/psychology/chess/2014-hambrick.pdf), Hambrick et al 2014 - ["Decision Making Following a Prenatal Diagnosis of Down Syndrome: An Integrative Review"](/doc/genetics/selection/2012-choi.pdf), Choi et al 2012 ([connection to embryo selection](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SEtkbLgusgtQ9dAzX/srg-4-biological-cognition-bcis-organizations?commentId=HmBCXxLQZ2mfSdsxx)) - ["Do We Believe Everything We're Told?"](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TiDGXt3WrQwtCdDj3/do-we-believe-everything-we-re-told) - ["The Acquired Immune System: A Vantage from Beneath"](https://www.cell.com/immunity/fulltext/S1074-7613\(04\)00307-3), Hedrick 2004 (immune systems as parasites) - [_The Pursuit of Noninvasive Glucose Blood Tests: "Hunting the Deceitful Turkey"_](https://www.mendosa.com/noninvasive_glucose.pdf), John Smith - [Fertility and intelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fertility_and_intelligence) **Technology**: - ["The Tyranny of the Rocket Equation"](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/expeditions/expedition30/tryanny.html) ([WP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsiolkovsky_rocket_equation)) - ["_Spacewar_: Fanatic Life and Symbolic Death Among the Computer Bums"](https://www.wheels.org/spacewar/stone/rolling_stone.html) - [Advanced factory manufacturing in America](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/01/making-it-in-america/308844/) - ["A history of the Amiga, part 8: The demo scene"](https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2013/04/a-history-of-the-amiga-part-9-the-demo-scene/) - ["Why Johnny Can't Encrypt: A Usability Evaluation of PGP 5.0"](https://www.usenix.org/legacy/events/sec99/full_papers/whitten/whitten.ps) - ["Carding Forums, Ponzi Schemes and Law Enforcement: A background on Evolution Marketplace"](/doc/darknet-market/evolution/2015-03-18-the_avid-evolutionmarketbackground-cardingforumsponzischemesle.html), by the\_avid - ["Fusion Power by Magnetic Confinement Program Plan"](https://fire.pppl.gov/us_fusion_plan_1976.pdf), Dean 1976/1998 - [Text of SXSW2013 closing remarks by Bruce Sterling](https://www.wired.com/2013/04/text-of-sxsw2013-closing-remarks-by-bruce-sterling/) - ["We need to get a lot better at imagining the future"](https://lemire.me/blog/2013/04/01/imagining-the-future/) - ["2000, the Year Formerly Known as the Future"](https://davidbauer.medium.com/2000-the-year-formerly-known-as-the-future-cbd6bdc6b283) - [Successful tech companies' business models reviewed](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/04/absurd-pitches-pull-out-the-hayek-and-polanyi-lesson.html "Absurd pitches (pull out the Hayek and Polanyi lesson)") **Economics**: - ["Dirty medicine"](https://fortune.com/2013/05/15/dirty-medicine/) - [Peak scientist](https://www.its.caltech.edu/~dg/crunch_art.html "'The Big Crunch', Goodstein 1994") - ["Slippery Business: The trade in adulterated olive oil"](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2007/08/13/slippery-business) - ["The Industrial Revolution: Past and Future"](https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2004/the-industrial-revolution-past-and-future) (Lucas on the Great Divergence, economic growth, the Asian miracles, and redistributionism.) - ["Of Frightened Horses and Autonomous Vehicles: Tort Law and its Assimilation of Innovations"](http://digitalcommons.law.scu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1170&context=facpubs), Graham 2012 - ["Beware the Middleman: Empirical Analysis of Bitcoin-Exchange Risk"](https://www.scinapse.io/papers/103145994), Moore & Christin 2013 (see also the followup [Moore et al 2016](https://tylermoore.utulsa.edu/toit17.pdf "Revisiting the Risks of Bitcoin Currency Exchange Closure")) - [NASHX](/doc/bitcoin/nashx/index) - ["Love, luck and destiny: the world according to a Mumbai matriarch"](https://www.abc.net.au/news/specials/mama-asia/2013-03-28/mama-asia-india/4634410) - ["Bacon: Why America's Favorite Food Mania Happened"](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-10-06/bacon-why-americas-favorite-food-mania-happened) - ["Nowhere is safe in EVE Online as Goonswarm suicide-bombs galactic trade hub"](https://www.pcgamer.com/nowhere-is-safe-in-eve-online-as-goonswarm-suicide-bombs-galactic-trade-hub/#null) (shades of Eurisko) - ["Currin Trading---Ambition, Deception, Honor, Redemption: The story of the biggest heist in Eve's history"](/doc/economics/2006-james315-currintradingponzischeme.html) - ["When Korea's E-Sports was at the Brink of Death"](https://askakorean.blogspot.com/2013/04/when-koreas-e-sports-was-at-brink-of.html) - ["Google's Lost Social Network"](https://www.buzzfeed.com/robf4/googles-lost-social-network) (exit, voice, and loyalty) - [Obsolete occupations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Obsolete_occupations): [breaker boy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breaker_boy), [crossing sweeper](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crossing_sweeper), [dog whipper](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dog_whipper) - [Old Economy Steven](https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/old-economy-steven/photos) **Philosophy**: - ["Why Did why the lucky stiff Quit? ...or, is this time well spent?"](https://kev.town/2013/04/30/why-did-why-the-lucky-stiff-quit/) - [Wrongful life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wrongful_life) - ["The Wish Never to Have Been Born"](/doc/psychiatry/1932-cavan.pdf), Cavan 1932 - ["Newtonian Ethics"](https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/05/17/newtonian-ethics/) ## Books **Nonfiction**: - [_Double Entry: How the Merchants of Venice Created Modern Finance_](https://www.amazon.com/Double-Entry-Merchants-Created-Finance/dp/0393088960), Gleeson-White 2012 ([review](/review/book#double-entry-gleeson-white-2012)) - [_Fascinating Mathematical People_](https://www.amazon.com/Fascinating-Mathematical-People-Interviews-Memoirs/dp/0691148295), ed Albers 2011 ([review](/review/book#fascinating-mathematical-people-albers-2011)) **Fiction**: - [_Utsuro no Hako to Zero no Maria_ ("The Empty Box and The Zeroth Maria")](https://www.baka-tsuki.org/project/index.php?title=Utsuro_no_Hako:Volume1) ([review](/review/book#the-empty-box-and-the-zeroth-maria-mikage-2009)) ## Film/TV **Anime**: - [_Kill la Kill_](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kill_la_Kill) ## Music **Touhou**: - ["恋色マスタースパーク (Love-Colored Master Spark)"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9RQOdcMT4s) (霧雨 魔理沙; _Charisma Lash Type-M_ {C86}) [orchestral] - ["感情の摩天楼 ~ Cosmic Mind"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wu8hEaeEwAw) (聖 白蓮; _Charisma Lash Type-M_ {C86}) [orchestral] - ["少女さとり ~3rd eye"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJ4-TvwCso4) (古明地 さとり; _Charisma Lash Type-M_ {C86}) [orchestral] - ["百鬼夏祭"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SWZLZcovH2w) (狐の工作室; _夏風の音_ {C86}) [acoustic/jazz?] - ["天空を駆ける風の都"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BrYxpndIRoc) (狐の工作室; _夏風の音_ {C86}) [acoustic] - ["Skydiver"](https://babbemusic.bandcamp.com/track/skydiver) (Babbe feat. kuroTenshi; _SUNSHINE EP_ {2014-08-16}) [house] - ["Beat of Summer"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VqFM_Z6yqPA) (Babbe feat. Kasuka; _SUNSHINE EP_ {2014-08-16}) [house] - ["月光跡"](https://www.dropbox.com/s/v583agzx3iz4cur/%E6%9F%8A%E7%A7%80%E9%9B%AA-mt22-%E6%9C%88%E5%85%89%E8%B7%A1.ogg) (柊秀雪 feat. Atori; _MT22_ {C86}) [Rock] - ["An cailin ar an tine"](https://www.dropbox.com/s/vcgyss8pfckvtzf/escarmew-mt22-ancailinarantine.ogg) (Escarmew; _MT22_ {C86}) [Celtic] - ["Fires of Hokkai"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZLSRRI01D_g) (Jun.A; _Cradle2_ {C77}) [electronic] **Doujin**: - ["The Strong Peanuts"](https://www.dropbox.com/s/494zqz8bh9r8zk0/takahiroeguchi-tomohikotogashi-adhouse3-thestrongpeanuts.ogg?dl=0) (Takahiro Eguchi + Tomohiko Togashi; 'AD:HOUSE 3' {C86}) [instrumental] - ["Sajou"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOgG-GanqrE) (doriko feat. Hanatan; _PRIMROSE FLOWER VOICE_ {2013}) [rock] - ["ロリババアに恋をした"](https://www.dropbox.com/s/6wpif5wepdwy1zq/honeyworks-%E5%A5%BD%E3%81%8D%E3%81%AA%E3%81%B2%E3%81%A8%E3%80%82-%E3%83%AD%E3%83%AA%E3%83%90%E3%83%90%E3%82%A2%E3%81%AB%E6%81%8B%E3%82%92%E3%81%97%E3%81%9F.ogg) (HoneyWorks feat. Sana; _Suki na Hito._ {C86}) [Jpop] - ["清恋 ~ベルティネの夜の夢~"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYA_sStHAjs) (Drop feat. 葉月ゆら; _Eclipse Parade_ {C86}) [Jpop] **Vocaloid**: - ["NICE MATCHING!"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7cIKGJpKGs) (miki; M@SATOSHI; _銀杏色D-i-s-k_ {VM23}) [electronic] - ["shallow moon"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3FcWqmA358) (Rin; 曼荼羅P; _selbstmord_ {2014}) [vocal] - ["チョコレートサンデー"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btxoyV8dLwg) (Miku; 空海月; _MIKUHOP LP_ {2014}) [Hip-hop] - ["Yokkora sex"](https://www.dropbox.com/s/bn9ze7bt5i2un81/96neko-memoreal-yokkorasex.ogg) (96Neko; _memoReal_ {2012}) [rock]