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  1. The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective

  2. Rajiv Sethi: On the Interpretation of Prediction Market Data

  3. Rajiv Sethi: From Order Books to Belief Distributions

  4. https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/33261/1/510931871.pdf

  5. Automated Market Maker for Intrade Contracts

  6. https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/presidential-dehtml

  7. Automated Market Maker Results

  8. Smoking Lesion

  9. Does Evidential Decision Theory Really Fail Solomon's Problem?

  10. Calibration

  11. 2001-rowe.pdf

  12. 1996-rowe.pdf

  13. Eliminating the Hindsight Bias

  14. How Friends Ruin Memory: The Social Conformity Effect

  15. Following the Crowd: Brain Substrates of Long-Term Memory Conformity

  16. Test Your Calibration!

  17. Most Recent Predictions by Gwern

  18. How Sure Are You?

  19. Kelly Criterion in Detail

  20. Kelly Criterion

  21. Implementing the Kelly Criterion

  22. Do Not Play the Lottery Unless You Are a Millionaire

  23. Prediction Markets Are Hot, But Here's Why They Can Be So Wrong

  24. https://intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=702407&z=1285870999458

  25. https://intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=639648&z=1285871684768

  26. https://intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=652756&z=1285872122100

  27. Sarah Palin Will Not Be the Republican Nominee for President of the United States in 2012

  28. https://intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=686537&z=1290800258450

  29. Sarah Palin Is Mounting a 2012 Presidential Campaign

  30. https://www.lesswrong.com/

  31. 2011 Intrade Fee Changes, Or, Intrade Considered No Longer Useful for LessWrongers

  32. https://intrade.com/jsp/intrade/help/index.jsp?page=general.html%23fees

  33. https://web.archive.org/web/20110107094639/http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/4797.page#44860

  34. https://www.bizjournals.com/news/technology/startups

  35. Intrade Will Close/merge/be Sold by 2012

  36. Intrade Will Close/merge/be Sold by 2013

  37. Intrade Will Close/merge/be Sold by 2015

  38. The Prediction Market Intrade Will Still Be Open for Business in 2020

  39. Witcoin

  40. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ijr8rsyvJci2edxot/making-money-with-bitcoin?commentId=umgwisuM8bxw8HPRv

  41. On Monetary Restandardization

  42. ​ Silk Road 1: Theory & Practice

  43. Pirateat40 Will Win His Bet With Vandroiy That BTCST Will Not Default, As Judged by Nanotube

  44. https://web.archive.org/web/20140723071618/http://www.bitcointrading.com/forum/talk-bitcoin/confused-about-the-7-8-9-5-btcusd-bubble-answers-here-bitcoin-2012-07-17/

  45. https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/wpllp/can_someone_explain_in_simple_terms_what_the_hell/

  46. Mt. Gox

  47. #bitcoin-Otc

  48. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/68TGNutjDcBcq6PCZ/bitcoin-cryonics-fund?commentId=5Da2f8n9aXmfJ7FYA

  49. Bets of Bitcoin

  50. http://betsofbitco.in/help

  51. BitBet Stole ~$7,000 from Me (10 BTC)

  52. Zerocoin: Anonymous Distributed E-Cash from Bitcoin

  53. Zerocoin: Making Bitcoin Anonymous

  54. Zerocoin Project

  55. We’re Going to Release It As an Alt-Coin. It Will Take a Few Months to Get It to That Point. Bitcoin Can Do What It Wants.

  56. CoinJoin: Bitcoin Privacy for the Real World

  57. ​ In Defense of Inclusionism

  58. Zerocoin As Functioning Altcoin Network within a Year

  59. Zerocoin Market Cap >$7,700,000,000 within 5 Years (Conditional on Launch)

  60. Zerocoin Market Cap >$7,000,000 within 5 Years (Conditional on Launch)

  61. Zerocoin Functionality Incorporated into Bitcoin within 1 Year

  62. Zerocoin Functionality Incorporated into Bitcoin within 5 Years

  63. A Bet Is a Tax on Bullshit

  64. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/w7ozrkxRsXF9DEreq/eliezer-yudkowsky-and-michael-vassar-at-nyu-thursday-march?commentId=rNw7QKkr9SEojxja2

  65. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pBTcCB5uJTzADdMm4/harry-potter-and-the-methods-of-rationality-discussion-15?commentId=qw9jdGrk5nGzjepyZ

  66. Reddit, Help Me Find Some Peace I'M Dying Young

  67. Is This One Emotion Driving The Google Stock Price Up?

  68. https://www.reddit.com/r/HPMOR/comments/1hc6x6/spoiler_discussion_thread_for_ch_8889/cat7wsz/

  69. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hxGEKxaHZEKT4fpms/our-phyg-is-not-exclusive-enough?commentId=pqqSFKmy8JwCv5Pcq

  70. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6518399

  71. SR: <30 Related Arrests within a Year.

  72. The Price of Bitcoin Will Be ≀$50 Before 2013-12-20: 5%

  73. Pastebin.com - Not Found (#404)

  74. https://www.reddit.com/r/SilkRoad/comments/1pko9y/the_bet_bmr_and_sheep_to_die_in_a_year/

  75. https://www.reddit.com/r/SilkRoad/comments/1pko9y/the_bet_bmr_and_sheep_to_die_in_a_year/cd3ar75/

  76. Idea Talkers Clump

  77. https://x.com/carlking/status/822128552015314945

  78. https://x.com/carlking

  79. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t5W87hQF5gKyTofQB/ufo-betting-put-up-or-shut-up?commentId=7qyFLsx9WQJdZfpjC

  80. [Resignation Announcement]

  81. https://www.amazon.com/Rational-Decisions-Gorman-Lectures-Economics/dp/0691149895/

  82. ​ Spaced Repetition for Efficient Learning

  83. https://x.com/alaindebotton/status/112772752041181184

  84. Making an Amanda Knox Prediction Market

  85. You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event

  86. https://www.davidbrin.com/predictionsregistry.htm

  87. Upcoming Predictions

  88. ​ Long Bets as Charitable Giving Opportunity

  89. 02008-02017 (10 Years): Over a Ten-Year Period Commencing on January 1, 2008, and Ending on December 31, 2017, the S&P 500 Will Outperform a Portfolio of Funds of Hedge Funds, When Performance Is Measured on a Basis Net of Fees, Costs and Expenses.

  90. Future Timeline Technology Singularity Future Events 2025 2050

  91. ​ about#long-content

    [Transclude the forward-link's context]

  92. https://www.amazon.com/Expert-Political-Judgment-Good-Know/dp/0691128715/

  93. Foxes vs Hedgehogs: Predictive Success

  94. Statistical Prediction Rules Out-Perform Expert Human Judgments

  95. Futuristic Predictions As Consumable Goods

  96. https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/tetlock-wisdomhtml

  97. Question Feed

  98. Recent Predictions

  99. http://betsofbitco.in/list?status=available&category=All&sorting=-moderationTime

  100. http://betsofbitco.in/list?status=available&category=All&sorting=deadlineTime

  101. https://home.inklingmarkets.com/recent/markets

  102. https://home.inklingmarkets.com/expiring/markets

  103. https://web.archive.org/web/20121219234250/http://markets.nitle.org/markets

  104. https://web.archive.org/web/20121226035058/http://markets.nitle.org/expiring/markets

  105. FX Claims

  106. https://feeds.feedburner.com/longbets

  107. Opening This Week

  108. Upcoming Movies - New Releases

  109. IARPA - ACE

  110. The Good Judgment Project

  111. Do Political Experts Know What They’re Talking About?

  112. [LINK] Get Paid to Train Your Rationality

  113. I Will Be Accepted by the Good Judgement Team.

  114. 2011-gwern-gjp-psychsurveys.html

  115. I Will Complete the Good Judgment Project and Be Paid the Full Honorarium.

  116. https://www.google.com/search?q=%22GJP%3A%20%22%20site%3Apredictionbook%2Ecom

  117. GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1007: Will There Be a Lethal Confrontation Involving Government Forces in the South China Sea or East China Sea by 31 December 2011?

  118. 2011-gwern-gjp-forecastresults.html

  119. Good Judgment Project Participant Feedback Reportβ€”Season 2 Performance

  120. gjp-season4-allpages.maff

  121. https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/20100/wits-and-wagers

  122. https://www.amazon.com/How-Measure-Anything-Intangibles-Business/dp/0470539399/

  123. ​ β€˜Fermi problems’ directory

  124. YourMorals

  125. evalinfo_process.html

  126. cog_ab_process.html

  127. bidr_process.html

  128. crowne_process.html

  129. selfeval_process.html

  130. Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners

  131. https://www.amazon.com/Risk-Intelligence-How-Live-Uncertainty/dp/1451610904/

  132. https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304451104577392270431239772

  133. 1001 PredictionBook Nights

  134. Keep Your Identity Small

  135. Probability Is Subjectively Objective

  136. Rationality Is Systematized Winning

  137. Beyond the Reach of God

  138. Ugh Fields

  139. Overcoming Suffering: Emotional Acceptance

  140. Avoiding Your Belief's Real Weak Points

  141. The Importance of Saying "Oops"

  142. How To Actually Change Your Mind

  143. Tsuyoku Naritai! (I Want To Become Stronger)

  144. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HWH46whexsoqR3yXk/normal-ending-last-tears-6-8?commentId=GZb3kSi9ZrBQHFY5P

  145. So As I Pray, Unlimited Moe Works

  146. Track Your Calibration

  147. ​ Archiving URLs

  148. The Arena for Accountable Predictions

  149. Future Timeline Technology Singularity Future Events 2025 2050

  150. Arthur C. Clarke - Expand Your Knowledge on Finances

  151. New Year's Predictions Thread

  152. New Year's Predictions Thread (2011)

  153. Lesswrong.com Site:predictionbook.com

  154. Predictionbook.com Site:reddit.com

  155. FSK's Guide to Reality: The Defect of Intrade

  156. Arbitrage of Prediction Markets

  157. What Do You Have to Say About Ron Paul?

  158. https://web.archive.org/web/20111011185020/http://www.regruntled.com/2008/10/21/selling-delusion-short/

  159. https://web.archive.org/web/20111011185055/http://www.regruntled.com/2008/11/06/intrade-retrospective/

  160. Prediction Markets

  161. Forecasting: Expectations, Intentions, and Confidence

  162. Arbitrage of Prediction Markets

  163. United States to Conduct Overt Military Action against North Korea Before Midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012

  164. China to Conduct Overt Military Action against Taiwan Before Midnight ET 31 Dec 2013

  165. Japan to Announce It Has Acquired a Nuclear Weapon Before Midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013

  166. Lost Purposes

  167. https://projects.csail.mit.edu/gsb/old-archive/gsb-archive/gsb2000-02-11.html

  168. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CfTH84gGFCRqo8D7t/cult-impressions-of-less-wrong-singularity-institute?commentId=u7Ga5JhcoyuYSKRSq

  169. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Kn6H8Tk6EPT4Atq4k/test-your-rationality?commentId=3PkwsKYyhNBgvbs2f

  170. Some Heroes

  171. ​ NGE Rebuild Predictions

  172. ​ nootropics#adderall-blind-testing

    [Transclude the forward-link's context]

  173. ​ nootropics#modalert-blind-day-trial

    [Transclude the forward-link's context]

  174. ​ LSD microdosing RCT

  175. ​ Summers of Code, 2006–2013

  176. ​ summer-of-code#predicting-2010-results

    [Transclude the forward-link's context]

  177. ​ summer-of-code#predicting-2011-results

    [Transclude the forward-link's context]

  178. ​ summer-of-code#predictions

    [Transclude the forward-link's context]

  179. ​ summer-of-code#predictions-1

    [Transclude the forward-link's context]

  180. ​ google-shutdown#predictions

    [Transclude the forward-link's context]

  181. It's Charisma, Stupid

  182. https://x.com/stevenkaas/statuses/149616831290818560

  183. ​ About This Website

  184. ​ Choosing Software

  185. ​ Nootropics

  186. ​ Zeo sleep self-experiments

  187. ​ Wikipedia & Knol: Why Knol Already Failed

  188. ​ Predicting Google closures

  189. ​ Methods of Rationality predictions

  190. ​ Slowing Moore’s Law: How It Could Happen

  191. ​ The Notenki Memoirs: Studio Gainax And The Men Who Created Evangelion Β§ β†©οΈŽ

    [Transclude the forward-link's context]

  192. ​ Modafinil

  193. ​ Who Wrote The Death Note Script?

  194. ​ The Crypto-Currency: Bitcoin and its mysterious inventor

  195. ​ 2014 Jed McCaleb MtGox interview

  196. ​ Blackmail fail

  197. The Mystery of the Haunted Rationalist

  198. Remind Physicalists They'Re Physicalists

  199. George Orwell: In Front of Your Nose

  200. The Sin of Underconfidence

  201. XiXiDu Will Not Comment or Post to LW for 5 Years

  202. 2011-donaldson.pdf

  203. https://www.fanfiction.net/s/5782108/20/Harry_Potter_and_the_Methods_of_Rationality

  204. Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality

  205. New Year's Predictions Thread

  206. http://csjarchive.cogsci.rpi.edu/Proceedings/2005/docs/p512.pdf

  207. Why Do Humans Reason? Arguments for an Argumentative Theory

  208. This Is What 5% Feels Like.

  209. Planning Fallacy

  210. Hindsight Bias

  211. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/2030

  212. Understanding Your Understanding

  213. https://www.amazon.com/Yogi-Book-Berra/dp/0761154434/

  214. Can self-prediction overcome barriers to Hepatitis B vaccination? A randomized controlled trial

  215. The Scientific Method

  216. Actuarial Life Table

  217. Techniques for Probability Estimates

  218. 1986-osberg.pdf

  219. A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan Level) Nuclear Accident Will Take Place by End of 2020.

  220. Within Ten Years the SAT Testing Service Will Require Students to Take a Blood Test to Prove They Are Not on Cognitive Enhancing Drugs

  221. News and Press Releases

  222. By 2025 There Will Be at Least One Confirmed Person Who Has Lived to 130.

  223. By 2085 There Will Be at Least One Confirmed Person Who Has Lived to 150

  224. What Is the Future of Solar Power?

  225. https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/when-see-solarhtml

  226. Obama Gets Reelected and during That Time Hillary Clinton Brokers the Middle East Peace Deal between Israel and Palestine for the Two State Solution. This Secures Her Presidency in 2016.

  227. There Will Be a Major War, Starting in the Middle East. Israel Will Lose (75%). China Will Probably Join in on the Radical-Muslim Side. Iran Will Try to Use Its Nukes but They Will Be Duds. Israel Will Not Use Theirs...

  228. https://x.com/stevenkaas/status/9852587905912832

  229. ​ The Ups and Downs of the Hope Function In a Fruitless Search

  230. https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/art13.html

  231. 1978-fischhoff.pdf

  232. ​ 2012 election predictions

  233. Forecasting Newsletter

  234. Calibrate Your Self-Assessments

  235. Calibrating Our Confidence

  236. Calibration Test With Database of 150,000+ Questions

  237. Amanda Knox: Post Mortem

  238. A Short Note

  239. https://fs.blog/decision-journal/

  240. Prediction Markets: When Do They Work?

  241. Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project

  242. Data on Forecasting Accuracy across Different Time Horizons and Levels of Forecaster Experience

  243. Alignment Problems With Current Forecasting Platforms

  244. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6489135

  245. ​ One Man’s Modus Ponens

  246. Fucked

  247. Science Fiction, Double Feature, 2: Part 2

  248. ​ Plastination versus Cryonics

  249. In China, Philanthropy As a New Measuring Stick

  250. The Biggest Losers of the Decade

  251. 10,000 Year Clock

  252. Policy Review

  253. https://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,998313,00.html

  254. The Mystery of Steve Jobs's Public Giving

  255. The Post-Jobs Era: Tim Cook Brings Philanthropy back to Apple

  256. Future of Steve Jobs' $6.7 Billion Wealth Likely to Remain As Private As He Was

  257. Story E6frfmd9 1226650636880

  258. The World's Richest People

  259. Absence of Evidence Is Evidence of Absence

  260. Absence of Evidence Is Evidence of Absence

  261. https://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/02/opinion/bono-praises-steve-jobs-as-generous-and-poetic.html

  262. https://www.amazon.com/Steve-Jobs-Walter-Isaacson/dp/1451648537/

  263. https://www.amazon.com/Inside-Apple-Americas-Admired-Secretive-Company/dp/145551215X

  264. Kindle Notes: Inside Apple by Adam Lashinsky

  265. https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304610404579405420617578250

  266. Steve Jobs's Will Shall Donate >=99% of His Wealth to Charity.

  267. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3616

  268. Steve Jobs's Will Shall Donate 0-10% of His Wealth to Charity

  269. Laurene Powell Jobs Goes Public to Promote Dream Act

  270. Steve Jobs’s Widow Sets Philanthropy Goals

  271. How Steve Jobs Got Sick, Got Better, and Decided to Save Some Lives

  272. Steve Jobs' Liver Transplant: Did He Game the System?

  273. American Medical Association

  274. Publish or Perish

  275. Apple Institutes New Charitable Matching Program for Employees

  276. The Trouble With Steve Jobs

  277. Darwin's Employer Was One of the 6 Named Billionaires.

  278. Darwin's Employer Was Either Bezos, Thiel, or Simonyi.

  279. Darwin's Employer Was Bezos.

  280. Darwin's Employer Was Peter Thiel.

  281. Darwin's Employer Was Charles Simonyi

  282. Wikipedia Bibliography:

    1. Prediction market

    2. Expected value

    3. Immanuel Kant

    4. Critique of Pure Reason

    5. Robin Hanson

    6. Efficient-market hypothesis

    7. No-trade theorem

    8. Zero-sum game

    9. Decision theory

    10. Cognitive bias

    11. Overconfidence effect

    12. Calibration (statistics)

    13. Calibrated probability assessment

    14. Delphi method

    15. George Ainslie (psychologist)

    16. Hindsight bias

    17. Kelly criterion

    18. Kelly criterion Β§ Criticismsβ€‰β€Š:

    19. Tilt (poker)β€‰β€Š:

    20. Risk aversion

    21. Hollywood Stock Exchangeβ€‰β€Š:

    22. Betfairβ€‰β€Š:

    23. Betdaqβ€‰β€Š:

    24. Intrade

    25. TradeSportsβ€‰β€Š:

    26. Nadexβ€‰β€Š:

    27. Iowa Electronic Marketsβ€‰β€Š:

    28. W. Somerset Maughamβ€‰β€Š:

    29. Fred Thompsonβ€‰β€Š:

    30. Margin (finance)β€‰β€Š:

    31. 2010 California Proposition 19β€‰β€Š:

    32. Felix Salmonβ€‰β€Š:

    33. Bitcoin

    34. Pump and dumpβ€‰β€Š:

    35. Dwollaβ€‰β€Š:

    36. Zero-knowledge proof

    37. Namecoinβ€‰β€Š:

    38. Iron law of oligarchy

    39. Bullshit Β§ Harry Frankfurt's conceptβ€‰β€Š:

    40. Credit risk Β§ Counterparty riskβ€‰β€Š:

    41. Mira Murati

    42. OpenAI

    43. Amanda Knox

    44. Friedman Unitβ€‰β€Š:

    45. Philip E. Tetlock

    46. Performative utterance

    47. Confirmation bias

    48. Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activityβ€‰β€Š:

    49. The Second Coming (poem)β€‰β€Š:

    50. Loss aversion

    51. William James

    52. The Will to Believeβ€‰β€Š:

    53. David Brin

    54. Nate Silver

    55. Favourite-longshot biasβ€‰β€Š:

    56. Paul Graham (programmer)

    57. Hiroyuki Yamaga

    58. FranΓ§ois de La Rochefoucauld (writer)

    59. George Orwellβ€‰β€Š:

    60. Evolutionary psychology

    61. Parkinson's law

    62. Credit default swapβ€‰β€Š:

    63. Yogi Berraβ€‰β€Š:

    64. Framing (social sciences)β€‰β€Š:

    65. Push pollβ€‰β€Š:

    66. Life tableβ€‰β€Š:

    67. Base rate

    68. Availability heuristic

    69. Fermi problem

    70. Single-nucleotide polymorphism

    71. One-child policy

    72. Sex-selective abortionβ€‰β€Š:

    73. Phlebotomyβ€‰β€Š:

    74. Strategies for engineered negligible senescence

    75. Besse Cooperβ€‰β€Š:

    76. Technological singularity

    77. Tyler Cowen

    78. Conjunction fallacy

    79. Subadditivity effectβ€‰β€Š:

    80. Anchoring effect

    81. Richards Heuerβ€‰β€Š:

    82. Roy Amara Β§ Amara's lawβ€‰β€Š:

    83. Mike Darwin

    84. Amber

    85. Fermi calculationsβ€‰β€Š:

    86. Jeff Bezos

    87. Clock of the Long Now

    88. Category:Australian billionairesβ€‰β€Š:

    89. Openness to experience

    90. Category:American billionairesβ€‰β€Š:

    91. Larry Page

    92. Sergey Brin

    93. Larry Ellison

    94. Charles Simonyiβ€‰β€Š:

    95. Jay S. Walker

    96. Jay S. Walker Β§ The Walker Library of the History of Human Imaginationβ€‰β€Š:

    97. Peter Thiel

    98. Jerry Yang

    99. Global catastrophic risk

    100. Anthropic principle

    101. Peter Thiel Β§ Philanthropyβ€‰β€Š:

    102. Seasteading

    103. Machine Intelligence Research Institute

    104. Methuselah Foundation Β§ Methuselah Mouse Prizeβ€‰β€Š:

    105. Stewart Brand

    106. Larry Ellison Β§ Philanthropy and other endeavorsβ€‰β€Š:

    107. Steve Jobs

    108. Laurene Powell Jobsβ€‰β€Š:

    109. IWozβ€‰β€Š:

    110. Matching fundsβ€‰β€Š:

    111. CNN Businessβ€‰β€Š:

    112. Jim Simons (mathematician)β€‰β€Š: