The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective
Rajiv Sethi: On the Interpretation of Prediction Market Data
Rajiv Sethi: From Order Books to Belief Distributions
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/33261/1/510931871.pdf
Automated Market Maker for Intrade Contracts
https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/presidential-dehtml
Automated Market Maker Results
Smoking Lesion
Does Evidential Decision Theory Really Fail Solomon's Problem?
Calibration
2001-rowe.pdf
1996-rowe.pdf
Eliminating the Hindsight Bias
How Friends Ruin Memory: The Social Conformity Effect
Following the Crowd: Brain Substrates of Long-Term Memory Conformity
Test Your Calibration!
Most Recent Predictions by Gwern
How Sure Are You?
Kelly Criterion in Detail
Kelly Criterion
Implementing the Kelly Criterion
Do Not Play the Lottery Unless You Are a Millionaire
Prediction Markets Are Hot, But Here's Why They Can Be So Wrong
https://intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=702407&z=1285870999458
https://intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=639648&z=1285871684768
https://intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=652756&z=1285872122100
Sarah Palin Will Not Be the Republican Nominee for President of the United States in 2012
https://intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=686537&z=1290800258450
Sarah Palin Is Mounting a 2012 Presidential Campaign
https://www.lesswrong.com/
2011 Intrade Fee Changes, Or, Intrade Considered No Longer Useful for LessWrongers
https://intrade.com/jsp/intrade/help/index.jsp?page=general.html%23fees
https://web.archive.org/web/20110107094639/http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/4797.page#44860
https://www.bizjournals.com/news/technology/startups
Intrade Will Close/merge/be Sold by 2012
Intrade Will Close/merge/be Sold by 2013
Intrade Will Close/merge/be Sold by 2015
The Prediction Market Intrade Will Still Be Open for Business in 2020
Witcoin
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ijr8rsyvJci2edxot/making-money-with-bitcoin?commentId=umgwisuM8bxw8HPRv
On Monetary Restandardization
β Silk Road 1: Theory & Practice
Pirateat40 Will Win His Bet With Vandroiy That BTCST Will Not Default, As Judged by Nanotube
https://web.archive.org/web/20140723071618/http://www.bitcointrading.com/forum/talk-bitcoin/confused-about-the-7-8-9-5-btcusd-bubble-answers-here-bitcoin-2012-07-17/
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/wpllp/can_someone_explain_in_simple_terms_what_the_hell/
Mt. Gox
#bitcoin-Otc
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/68TGNutjDcBcq6PCZ/bitcoin-cryonics-fund?commentId=5Da2f8n9aXmfJ7FYA
Bets of Bitcoin
http://betsofbitco.in/help
BitBet Stole ~$7,000 from Me (10 BTC)
Zerocoin: Anonymous Distributed E-Cash from Bitcoin
Zerocoin: Making Bitcoin Anonymous
Zerocoin Project
Weβre Going to Release It As an Alt-Coin. It Will Take a Few Months to Get It to That Point. Bitcoin Can Do What It Wants.
CoinJoin: Bitcoin Privacy for the Real World
β In Defense of Inclusionism
Zerocoin As Functioning Altcoin Network within a Year
Zerocoin Market Cap >$7,700,000,000 within 5 Years (Conditional on Launch)
Zerocoin Market Cap >$7,000,000 within 5 Years (Conditional on Launch)
Zerocoin Functionality Incorporated into Bitcoin within 1 Year
Zerocoin Functionality Incorporated into Bitcoin within 5 Years
A Bet Is a Tax on Bullshit
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/w7ozrkxRsXF9DEreq/eliezer-yudkowsky-and-michael-vassar-at-nyu-thursday-march?commentId=rNw7QKkr9SEojxja2
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pBTcCB5uJTzADdMm4/harry-potter-and-the-methods-of-rationality-discussion-15?commentId=qw9jdGrk5nGzjepyZ
Reddit, Help Me Find Some Peace I'M Dying Young
Is This One Emotion Driving The Google Stock Price Up?
https://www.reddit.com/r/HPMOR/comments/1hc6x6/spoiler_discussion_thread_for_ch_8889/cat7wsz/
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hxGEKxaHZEKT4fpms/our-phyg-is-not-exclusive-enough?commentId=pqqSFKmy8JwCv5Pcq
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6518399
SR: <30 Related Arrests within a Year.
The Price of Bitcoin Will Be β€$50 Before 2013-12-20: 5%
Pastebin.com - Not Found (#404)
https://www.reddit.com/r/SilkRoad/comments/1pko9y/the_bet_bmr_and_sheep_to_die_in_a_year/
https://www.reddit.com/r/SilkRoad/comments/1pko9y/the_bet_bmr_and_sheep_to_die_in_a_year/cd3ar75/
Idea Talkers Clump
https://x.com/carlking/status/822128552015314945
https://x.com/carlking
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t5W87hQF5gKyTofQB/ufo-betting-put-up-or-shut-up?commentId=7qyFLsx9WQJdZfpjC
[Resignation Announcement]
https://www.amazon.com/Rational-Decisions-Gorman-Lectures-Economics/dp/0691149895/
β Spaced Repetition for Efficient Learning
https://x.com/alaindebotton/status/112772752041181184
Making an Amanda Knox Prediction Market
You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event
https://www.davidbrin.com/predictionsregistry.htm
Upcoming Predictions
β Long Bets as Charitable Giving Opportunity
02008-02017 (10 Years): Over a Ten-Year Period Commencing on January 1, 2008, and Ending on December 31, 2017, the S&P 500 Will Outperform a Portfolio of Funds of Hedge Funds, When Performance Is Measured on a Basis Net of Fees, Costs and Expenses.
Future Timeline Technology Singularity Future Events 2025 2050
β about#long-content
[Transclude the forward-link's
context]
https://www.amazon.com/Expert-Political-Judgment-Good-Know/dp/0691128715/
Foxes vs Hedgehogs: Predictive Success
Statistical Prediction Rules Out-Perform Expert Human Judgments
Futuristic Predictions As Consumable Goods
https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/tetlock-wisdomhtml
Question Feed
Recent Predictions
http://betsofbitco.in/list?status=available&category=All&sorting=-moderationTime
http://betsofbitco.in/list?status=available&category=All&sorting=deadlineTime
https://home.inklingmarkets.com/recent/markets
https://home.inklingmarkets.com/expiring/markets
https://web.archive.org/web/20121219234250/http://markets.nitle.org/markets
https://web.archive.org/web/20121226035058/http://markets.nitle.org/expiring/markets
FX Claims
https://feeds.feedburner.com/longbets
Opening This Week
Upcoming Movies - New Releases
IARPA - ACE
The Good Judgment Project
Do Political Experts Know What Theyβre Talking About?
[LINK] Get Paid to Train Your Rationality
I Will Be Accepted by the Good Judgement Team.
2011-gwern-gjp-psychsurveys.html
I Will Complete the Good Judgment Project and Be Paid the Full Honorarium.
https://www.google.com/search?q=%22GJP%3A%20%22%20site%3Apredictionbook%2Ecom
GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1007: Will There Be a Lethal Confrontation Involving Government Forces in the South China Sea or East China Sea by 31 December 2011?
2011-gwern-gjp-forecastresults.html
Good Judgment Project Participant Feedback ReportβSeason 2 Performance
gjp-season4-allpages.maff
https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/20100/wits-and-wagers
https://www.amazon.com/How-Measure-Anything-Intangibles-Business/dp/0470539399/
β βFermi problemsβ directory
YourMorals
evalinfo_process.html
cog_ab_process.html
bidr_process.html
crowne_process.html
selfeval_process.html
Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners
https://www.amazon.com/Risk-Intelligence-How-Live-Uncertainty/dp/1451610904/
https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304451104577392270431239772
1001 PredictionBook Nights
Keep Your Identity Small
Probability Is Subjectively Objective
Rationality Is Systematized Winning
Beyond the Reach of God
Ugh Fields
Overcoming Suffering: Emotional Acceptance
Avoiding Your Belief's Real Weak Points
The Importance of Saying "Oops"
How To Actually Change Your Mind
Tsuyoku Naritai! (I Want To Become Stronger)
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HWH46whexsoqR3yXk/normal-ending-last-tears-6-8?commentId=GZb3kSi9ZrBQHFY5P
So As I Pray, Unlimited Moe Works
Track Your Calibration
β Archiving URLs
The Arena for Accountable Predictions
Future Timeline Technology Singularity Future Events 2025 2050
Arthur C. Clarke - Expand Your Knowledge on Finances
New Year's Predictions Thread
New Year's Predictions Thread (2011)
Lesswrong.com Site:predictionbook.com
Predictionbook.com Site:reddit.com
FSK's Guide to Reality: The Defect of Intrade
Arbitrage of Prediction Markets
What Do You Have to Say About Ron Paul?
https://web.archive.org/web/20111011185020/http://www.regruntled.com/2008/10/21/selling-delusion-short/
https://web.archive.org/web/20111011185055/http://www.regruntled.com/2008/11/06/intrade-retrospective/
Prediction Markets
Forecasting: Expectations, Intentions, and Confidence
Arbitrage of Prediction Markets
United States to Conduct Overt Military Action against North Korea Before Midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012
China to Conduct Overt Military Action against Taiwan Before Midnight ET 31 Dec 2013
Japan to Announce It Has Acquired a Nuclear Weapon Before Midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013
Lost Purposes
https://projects.csail.mit.edu/gsb/old-archive/gsb-archive/gsb2000-02-11.html
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CfTH84gGFCRqo8D7t/cult-impressions-of-less-wrong-singularity-institute?commentId=u7Ga5JhcoyuYSKRSq
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Kn6H8Tk6EPT4Atq4k/test-your-rationality?commentId=3PkwsKYyhNBgvbs2f
Some Heroes
β NGE Rebuild Predictions
β nootropics#adderall-blind-testing
[Transclude the forward-link's
context]
β nootropics#modalert-blind-day-trial
[Transclude the forward-link's
context]
β LSD microdosing RCT
β Summers of Code, 2006β2013
β summer-of-code#predicting-2010-results
[Transclude the forward-link's
context]
β summer-of-code#predicting-2011-results
[Transclude the forward-link's
context]
β summer-of-code#predictions
[Transclude the forward-link's
context]
β summer-of-code#predictions-1
[Transclude the forward-link's
context]
β google-shutdown#predictions
[Transclude the forward-link's
context]
It's Charisma, Stupid
https://x.com/stevenkaas/statuses/149616831290818560
β About This Website
β Choosing Software
β Nootropics
β Zeo sleep self-experiments
β Wikipedia & Knol: Why Knol Already Failed
β Predicting Google closures
β Methods of Rationality predictions
β Slowing Mooreβs Law: How It Could Happen
β The Notenki Memoirs: Studio Gainax And The Men Who Created Evangelion Β§ β©οΈ
[Transclude the forward-link's
context]
β Modafinil
β Who Wrote The Death Note Script?
β The Crypto-Currency: Bitcoin and its mysterious inventor
β 2014 Jed McCaleb MtGox interview
β Blackmail fail
The Mystery of the Haunted Rationalist
Remind Physicalists They'Re Physicalists
George Orwell: In Front of Your Nose
The Sin of Underconfidence
XiXiDu Will Not Comment or Post to LW for 5 Years
2011-donaldson.pdf
https://www.fanfiction.net/s/5782108/20/Harry_Potter_and_the_Methods_of_Rationality
Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality
New Year's Predictions Thread
http://csjarchive.cogsci.rpi.edu/Proceedings/2005/docs/p512.pdf
Why Do Humans Reason? Arguments for an Argumentative Theory
This Is What 5% Feels Like.
Planning Fallacy
Hindsight Bias
https://predictionbook.com/predictions/2030
Understanding Your Understanding
https://www.amazon.com/Yogi-Book-Berra/dp/0761154434/
Can self-prediction overcome barriers to Hepatitis B vaccination? A randomized controlled trial
The Scientific Method
Actuarial Life Table
Techniques for Probability Estimates
1986-osberg.pdf
A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan Level) Nuclear Accident Will Take Place by End of 2020.
Within Ten Years the SAT Testing Service Will Require Students to Take a Blood Test to Prove They Are Not on Cognitive Enhancing Drugs
News and Press Releases
By 2025 There Will Be at Least One Confirmed Person Who Has Lived to 130.
By 2085 There Will Be at Least One Confirmed Person Who Has Lived to 150
What Is the Future of Solar Power?
https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/when-see-solarhtml
Obama Gets Reelected and during That Time Hillary Clinton Brokers the Middle East Peace Deal between Israel and Palestine for the Two State Solution. This Secures Her Presidency in 2016.
There Will Be a Major War, Starting in the Middle East. Israel Will Lose (75%). China Will Probably Join in on the Radical-Muslim Side. Iran Will Try to Use Its Nukes but They Will Be Duds. Israel Will Not Use Theirs...
https://x.com/stevenkaas/status/9852587905912832
β The Ups and Downs of the Hope Function In a Fruitless Search
https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/art13.html
1978-fischhoff.pdf
β 2012 election predictions
Forecasting Newsletter
Calibrate Your Self-Assessments
Calibrating Our Confidence
Calibration Test With Database of 150,000+ Questions
Amanda Knox: Post Mortem
A Short Note
https://fs.blog/decision-journal/
Prediction Markets: When Do They Work?
Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project
Data on Forecasting Accuracy across Different Time Horizons and Levels of Forecaster Experience
Alignment Problems With Current Forecasting Platforms
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6489135
β One Manβs Modus Ponens
Fucked
Science Fiction, Double Feature, 2: Part 2
β Plastination versus Cryonics
In China, Philanthropy As a New Measuring Stick
The Biggest Losers of the Decade
10,000 Year Clock
Policy Review
https://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,998313,00.html
The Mystery of Steve Jobs's Public Giving
The Post-Jobs Era: Tim Cook Brings Philanthropy back to Apple
Future of Steve Jobs' $6.7 Billion Wealth Likely to Remain As Private As He Was
Story E6frfmd9 1226650636880
The World's Richest People
Absence of Evidence Is Evidence of Absence
Absence of Evidence Is Evidence of Absence
https://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/02/opinion/bono-praises-steve-jobs-as-generous-and-poetic.html
https://www.amazon.com/Steve-Jobs-Walter-Isaacson/dp/1451648537/
https://www.amazon.com/Inside-Apple-Americas-Admired-Secretive-Company/dp/145551215X
Kindle Notes: Inside Apple by Adam Lashinsky
https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304610404579405420617578250
Steve Jobs's Will Shall Donate >=99% of His Wealth to Charity.
https://predictionbook.com/predictions/3616
Steve Jobs's Will Shall Donate 0-10% of His Wealth to Charity
Laurene Powell Jobs Goes Public to Promote Dream Act
Steve Jobsβs Widow Sets Philanthropy Goals
How Steve Jobs Got Sick, Got Better, and Decided to Save Some Lives
Steve Jobs' Liver Transplant: Did He Game the System?
American Medical Association
Publish or Perish
Apple Institutes New Charitable Matching Program for Employees
The Trouble With Steve Jobs
Darwin's Employer Was One of the 6 Named Billionaires.
Darwin's Employer Was Either Bezos, Thiel, or Simonyi.
Darwin's Employer Was Bezos.
Darwin's Employer Was Peter Thiel.
Darwin's Employer Was Charles Simonyi