A world where the gambler’s fallacy was true via Sampling-Without-Replacement
Towards a Law of Iterated Expectations for Heuristic Estimators
Statistical Patterns in the Equations of Physics and the Emergence of a Meta-Law of Nature
A proof that HT is more likely to outnumber HH than vice versa in a sequence of n coin flips
How to Answer Questions of the Type: If you toss a coin n times, how likely is HH to show up more than HT?
Fair coins tend to land on the same side they started: Evidence from 350,757 Flips
Sciama’s argument on life in a random universe: Distinguishing apples from oranges
Distinct Elements in Streams: An Algorithm for the (Text) Book
Arithmetic Sampling: Parallel Diverse Decoding for Large Language Models
Why are Roman-period dice asymmetrical? An experimental and quantitative approach
Policy Learning and Evaluation with Randomized Quasi-Monte Carlo
A High-Dimensional Sphere Spilling out of a High-Dimensional Cube despite Exponentially Many Constraints
Learning in High Dimension Always Amounts to Extrapolation
Can humans perform mental regression on a graph? Accuracy and bias in the perception of scatterplots
The piranha problem: Large effects swimming in a small pond
Follow-up: I found two identical packs of Skittles, among 468 packs with a total of 27,740 Skittles
Tweedie Gradient Boosting for Extremely Unbalanced Zero-inflated Data
Information flow reveals prediction limits in online social activity
Requiem for a Shuffle: Why Steve Jobs told me he loved the littlest iPod—and why we’re going to miss it
Amplifiers and Suppressors of Selection for the Moran Process on Undirected Graphs
The Concrete Distribution: A Continuous Relaxation of Discrete Random Variables
Most Undirected Random Graphs Are Amplifiers of Selection for Birth-Death Dynamics, but Suppressors of Selection for Death-Birth Dynamics
What Teachers Should Know about the Bootstrap: Resampling in the Undergraduate Statistics Curriculum
Asymptotic expression for the fixation probability of a mutant in star graphs
Universality of fixation probabilities in randomly structured populations
Fixation probabilities on superstars, revisited and revised
On the Distribution of Job Performance: The Role of Measurement Characteristics in Observed Departures from Normality
Emergence of good conduct, scaling and Zipf laws in human behavioral sequences in an online world
Quality of random number generators affects results of Monte Carlo simulations for organic and biological systems
A new car-following model yielding log-normal type headways distributions
When to Stop: How to Gamble If You Must—The Mathematics of Optimal Stopping
Continuous Parameter Estimation Model: Expanding the Standard Statistical Paradigm
An alternative to null-hypothesis statistical-significance tests
Solution to the OK Corral Model via Decoupling of Friedman’s Urn
The Power of Two Random Choices: A Survey of Techniques and Results
The Ok Corral And The Power Of The Law (A Curious Poisson-Kernel Formula For A Parabolic Equation)
Randomness conservation inequalities; information and independence in mathematical theories
Application of the Buffon needle problem and its extensions to parallel-line search sampling scheme
Characteristic Statistical Problems of Stochastic Geometry
Stabilization in Systems: Chreods and Epigenetic Landscapes
A Markov process of gene frequency change in a geographically structured population
Generation of Random Permutations of Given Number of Elements Using Random Sampling Numbers
Research Update: Towards a Law of Iterated Expectations for Heuristic Estimators
The Infinitesimal Model: Definition, Derivation, and Implications
2024-09-05-gwern-meme-butitcouldworkforus-regressiontothemean.jpg
2016-ernst-equation-varianceoftheempiricalcorrelationof2independentrandomwalkwienerprocesses.jpg
2009-ekstrom-figure1-optimalstoppingboundaryofabrownianbridgeproblem.png
1973-meshalkin-collectionofproblemsinprobabilitytheory.pdf
1966-feller-anintroductiontoprobabilitytheoryanditsapplications-2.pdf
1957-feller-anintroductiontoprobabilitytheoryanditsapplications-1.pdf
https://aleph.se/andart2/math/weird-probability-distributions/
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https://blog.demofox.org/2017/05/29/when-random-numbers-are-too-random-low-discrepancy-sequences/
https://danielroelfs.com/blog/everything-is-a-linear-model/
https://dennybritz.com/posts/probability-monads-from-scratch/
https://extremelearning.com.au/unreasonable-effectiveness-of-quasirandom-sequences/
https://hedgehogreview.com/issues/markets-and-the-good/articles/language-machinery
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https://joshualoftus.com/posts/2020-11-23-least-squares-as-springs/
https://marckhoury.github.io/blog/counterintuitive-properties-of-high-dimensional-space/
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https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pEZoTSCxHY3mfPbHu/catastrophic-goodhart-in-rl-with-kl-penalty
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vfb5Seaaqzk5kzChb/when-is-correlation-transitive
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https://www.quantamagazine.org/computer-scientists-invent-an-efficient-new-way-to-count-20240516/
https://www.quantamagazine.org/mathematicians-find-hidden-structure-in-a-common-type-of-space-20230412/
https://www.reddit.com/r/SampleSize/comments/fr4rnl/results_i_asked_you_to_choose_any_integer_from/
https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/Real-World/million.html
https%253A%252F%252Fjournals.sagepub.com%252Fdoi%252Ffull%252F10.1177%252F25152459231197605.html
Arithmetic Sampling: Parallel Diverse Decoding for Large Language Models
https%253A%252F%252Farxiv.org%252Fabs%252F2210.15458%2523google.html
Can humans perform mental regression on a graph? Accuracy and bias in the perception of scatterplots
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The piranha problem: Large effects swimming in a small pond
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Requiem for a Shuffle: Why Steve Jobs told me he loved the littlest iPod—and why we’re going to miss it
https%253A%252F%252Fwww.wired.com%252Fstory%252Frequiem-for-the-ipod-shuffle%252F.html
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https%253A%252F%252Farxiv.org%252Fabs%252Fphysics%252F0510117.html
The Power of Two Random Choices: A Survey of Techniques and Results
https%253A%252F%252Fwww.ic.unicamp.br%252F~celio%252Fpeer2peer%252Fmath%252Fmitzenmacher-power-of-two.pdf.html
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