Hail Jeffrey Wernick [Pre-Hanson Employment & Conditional Prediction Markets]
The Death and Life of Prediction Markets at Google: Over the past Two Decades, Google Has Hosted Two Different Internal Platforms for Predictions. Why Did the First One Fail—And Will the Other Endure?
ChatGPT Can Predict the Future when it Tells Stories Set in the Future About the Past
Crowd prediction systems: Markets, polls, and elite forecasters
Academics are more specific, and practitioners more sensitive, in forecasting interventions to strengthen democratic attitudes
Large Language Model Prediction Capabilities: Evidence from a Real-World Forecasting Tournament
Self-Resolving Prediction Markets for Unverifiable Outcomes
Incentivizing honest performative predictions with proper scoring rules
Deep Learning based Forecasting: a case study from the online fashion industry
On the Accuracy, Media Representation, and Public Perception of Psychological Scientists’ Judgments of Societal Change
Long-Range Subjective-Probability Forecasts of Slow-Motion Variables in World Politics: Exploring Limits on Expert Judgment
The unlikelihood effect: When knowing more creates the perception of less
Does constructing a belief distribution truly reduce overconfidence?
Augur: a Decentralized Oracle and Prediction Market Platform (v2.0)
An appropriate verbal probability lexicon for communicating surgical risks is unlikely to exist
A simple cognitive method to improve the prediction of matters of taste by exploiting the within-person wisdom-of-crowd effect
Modeling Transformative AI Risks (MTAIR) Project—Summary Report
Taking a Disagreeing Perspective Improves the Accuracy of People’s Quantitative Estimates
Politicizing mask-wearing: predicting the success of behavioral interventions among Republicans and Democrats in the US
A 680,000-person megastudy of nudges to encourage vaccination in pharmacies
Dream Interpretation from a Cognitive and Cultural Evolutionary Perspective: The Case of Oneiromancy in Traditional China
M5 accuracy competition: Results, findings, and conclusions
Megastudies improve the impact of applied behavioral science
Forecasting Skills in Experimental Markets: Illusion or Reality?
Strategically overconfident (to a fault): How self-promotion motivates advisor confidence
Long-Range Transformers for Dynamic Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Sigmoids behaving badly: why they usually cannot predict the future as well as they seem to promise
Wise teamwork: Collective confidence calibration predicts the effectiveness of group discussion
Behavioral scientists and laypeople misestimate societal effects of COVID-19
How the wisdom of crowds, and of the crowd within, are affected by expertise
Mind the Gap: Assessing Temporal Generalization in Neural Language Models § Scaling
Kaggle forecasting competitions: An overlooked learning opportunity
Danny Hernandez on forecasting and the drivers of AI progress
AI and Efficiency: We’re releasing an analysis showing that since 2012 the amount of compute needed to train a neural net to the same performance on ImageNet classification has been decreasing by a factor of 2 every 16 months
ForecastQA: A Question Answering Challenge for Event Forecasting with Temporal Text Data
LightGBM: A Highly Efficient Gradient Boosting Decision Tree
N-BEATS: Neural basis expansion analysis for interpretable time series forecasting
Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project
The Wisdom of Crowds Approach to Influenza-Rate Forecasting
The wisdom of the inner crowd in three large natural experiments
When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts
DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks
Roosevelt Predicted to Win: Revisiting the 1936 Literary Digest Poll
Looking Across and Looking Beyond the Knowledge Frontier: Intellectual Distance, Novelty, and Resource Allocation in Science
Mechanical Versus Clinical Data Combination in Selection and Admissions Decisions: A Meta-Analysis
General knowledge norms: Updated and expanded from the Nelson & Narens 1980 norms
Learning Performance of Prediction Markets with Kelly Bettors
Can physicians accurately predict which patients will lose weight, improve nutrition and increase physical activity?
Why Do Humans Reason? Arguments for an Argumentative Theory
Applying the Fermi Estimation Technique to Business Problems
Predicting the Next Big Thing: Success as a Signal of Poor Judgment
Measuring the Crowd Within: Probabilistic Representations Within Individuals
The Meta-Analysis of Clinical Judgment Project: 56 Years of Accumulated Research on Clinical Versus Statistical Prediction
A systematic review on communicating with patients about evidence
Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners
Who Is Arguing About the Cat? Moral Action and Enlightenment According to Dōgen
Beyond Regression: New Tools for Prediction and Analysis in the Behavioral Sciences
Can AI Outpredict Humans? Results From Metaculus’s Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark [No]
Maths Writer/cowritter Needed: How You Can't Distinguish Early Exponential from Early Sigmoid
Demographically Diverse Crowds Are Typically Not Much Wiser Than Homogeneous Crowds
Why the State Department’s INR Intelligence Agency May Be the Best in DC
2022-gelman-figure3-overconfidenceinstudentclassroomcalibrationexercise.jpg
2022-zou-figure1-exampleautocastdatapointcomparingforecastingoflanguagemodeltohumanforecasters.png
2022-zou-table2-modelaccuracyonautocastpredictiondatasetbyquestiontypeandmodeltype.png
2021-hutcherson-figure1-expertandlaymancoronavirusforecastsvsreality.jpg
2021-milkman-figure1-actualvspredictedeffectsofgymgoingincentivesinrandomizedexperiments.png
2019-aiimpacts-goodforecasting-gjp-ensemblingperformance.jpg
2017-vandolder-figure1-scalingofaccuracyofcrowdestimatesbywithinpersonvsbetweenperson.jpg
2008-vul-figure1-wisdomofinnercrowdimprovespredictions.jpg
https://blog.polybdenum.com/2023/08/01/how-i-came-second-out-of-999-in-the-salem-center-prediction-market-tournament-without-knowing-anything-about-prediction-markets-and-what-i-learned-along-the-way-part-1.html
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/H7xWzvwvkyywDAEkL/creating-a-database-for-base-rates
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/akn2BFhhM9CzwpLEA/wisdom-of-the-crowd-vs-the-best-of-the-best-of-the-best
https://joecarlsmith.com/2023/05/08/predictable-updating-about-ai-risk/
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-this-markets-probability-be-at
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/12/shiller-on-trills.html
https://news.manifold.markets/p/isaac-kings-whales-vs-minnows-and
https://niplav.github.io/notes.html#Subscripts_for_Probabilities
3bfea91ca98f0a91ce2b3d1485818f942b03bef9.html#Subscripts_for_Probabilities
https://progressforum.org/posts/49tFxpkaxkQ748BAu/working-draft-of-getting-the-conditions-right-progress-in
https://sumrevija.si/en/eng-peter-watts-the-wisdom-of-crowds-sum11/
https://web.archive.org/web/20070714204136/http://www.michaelcrichton.net/speech-whyspeculate.html
https://worksinprogress.co/issue/why-prediction-markets-arent-popular/
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/against-learning-from-dramatic-events
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/crowds-are-wise-and-ones-a-crowd
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-buying-things-from-a-store-faq
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-extinction-tournament
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/68TGNutjDcBcq6PCZ/bitcoin-cryonics-fund#5Da2f8n9aXmfJ7FYA
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/epgCXiv3Yy3qgcsys/you-can-t-predict-a-game-of-pinball#wjLFhiWWacByqyu6a
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t5W87hQF5gKyTofQB/ufo-betting-put-up-or-shut-up#7qyFLsx9WQJdZfpjC
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ufW5LvcwDuL6qjdBT/latent-variables-for-prediction-markets-motivation-technical
https://www.macroscience.org/p/the-frontier-of-scientific-plausibility
https://www.maximum-progress.com/p/grading-extropian-predictions
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/notebooks/8702/the-promise-and-impact-of-the-next-generation-of-weight-loss-drugs/
Large Language Model Prediction Capabilities: Evidence from a Real-World Forecasting Tournament
On the Accuracy, Media Representation, and Public Perception of Psychological Scientists’ Judgments of Societal Change
https%253A%252F%252Fwww.sciencedirect.com%252Fscience%252Farticle%252Fpii%252FS0169207021001679.html
Augur: a Decentralized Oracle and Prediction Market Platform (v2.0)
%252Fdoc%252Fstatistics%252Fprediction%252F2022-peterson.pdf.html
https%253A%252F%252Farxiv.org%252Fabs%252F2207.05221%2523anthropic.html
Politicizing mask-wearing: predicting the success of behavioral interventions among Republicans and Democrats in the US
https%253A%252F%252Fwww.nature.com%252Farticles%252Fs41598-022-10524-1.html
%252Fdoc%252Fstatistics%252Fprediction%252F2022-gelman.pdf.html
https%253A%252F%252Fwww.lesswrong.com%252Fposts%252FSbAgRYo8tkHwhd9Qx%252Fdeepmind-the-podcast-excerpts-on-agi.html
A 680,000-person megastudy of nudges to encourage vaccination in pharmacies
https%253A%252F%252Fwww.pnas.org%252Fdoi%252F10.1073%252Fpnas.2115126119.html
Dream Interpretation from a Cognitive and Cultural Evolutionary Perspective: The Case of Oneiromancy in Traditional China
%252Fdoc%252Fstatistics%252Fprediction%252F2022-hong.pdf.html
M5 accuracy competition: Results, findings, and conclusions
https%253A%252F%252Fwww.sciencedirect.com%252Fscience%252Farticle%252Fpii%252FS0169207021001874.html
Megastudies improve the impact of applied behavioral science
%252Fdoc%252Fstatistics%252Fprediction%252F2021-milkman.pdf.html
Mind the Gap: Assessing Temporal Generalization in Neural Language Models § Scaling
https%253A%252F%252Farxiv.org%252Fabs%252F2102.01951%2523scaling%2526org%253Ddeepmind.html
Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project
https%253A%252F%252Faiimpacts.org%252Fevidence-on-good-forecasting-practices-from-the-good-judgment-project-an-accompanying-blog-post%252F.html
The wisdom of the inner crowd in three large natural experiments
%252Fdoc%252Fstatistics%252Fprediction%252F2017-vandolder.pdf.html
Mechanical Versus Clinical Data Combination in Selection and Admissions Decisions: A Meta-Analysis
%252Fdoc%252Fstatistics%252Fprediction%252F2013-kuncel.pdf.html
General knowledge norms: Updated and expanded from the Nelson & Narens 1980 norms
https%253A%252F%252Flink.springer.com%252Farticle%252F10.3758%252Fs13428-012-0307-9.html
https%253A%252F%252Fwww.vetta.org%252F2010%252F12%252Fgoodbye-2010%252F.html
%252Fdoc%252Fpsychology%252Fcognitive-bias%252Fillusion-of-depth%252F2009-kahneman.pdf.html
Wikipedia Bibliography:
