Bibliography:

  1. ​ ‘forecasting’ tag

  2. ​ Prediction Markets

  3. ​ 2012 election predictions

  4. ​ Statistical paradises and paradoxes in big data (1): Law of large populations, big data paradox, and the 2016 US presidential election

  5. ​ Disentangling Bias and Variance in Election Polls

  6. ​ The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective

  7. ​ 2012-gwern-notes.txt

  8. ​ 2012-linzer-statewinprob.csv

  9. ​ 2012-presidential.csv

  10. ​ 2012-senatemargin.csv

  11. ​ 2012-senatewin.csv

  12. ​ 2012-statemargin.csv

  13. ​ 2012-statewin.csv

  14. ​ https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/mantic-monday-51324

  15. ​ 6988258fa33b299999e7ff003a8d2a2b5ccc46fd.html