The number of ‘exceptional’ people: Fewer than 85 per 1 million across key traits
The global pattern of centenarians highlights deep problems in demography
Is Target-Based Drug Discovery Efficient? Discovery and ‘Off-Target’ Mechanisms of All Drugs
Distinct Elements in Streams: An Algorithm for the (Text) Book
Accurate detection of shared genetic architecture from GWAS summary statistics in the small-sample context
Predictive Validity in Drug Discovery: What It Is, Why It Matters and How to Improve It
Improving Graduate-School Admissions by Expanding Rather Than Eliminating Predictors
Bias, Fairness, and Validity in Graduate-School Admissions: A Psychometric Perspective
The promise of potential: A study on the effectiveness of jury selection to a prestigious visual arts program
Effective Mutation Rate Adaptation through Group Elite Selection
On extensions of rank correlation coefficients to multivariate spaces
A Review of the Gumbel-max Trick and its Extensions for Discrete Stochasticity in Machine Learning
Artificial intelligence in drug discovery: what is realistic, what are illusions? Part 1: Ways to make an impact, and why we are not there yet: Quality is more important than speed and cost in drug discovery
Recipes and Economic Growth: A Combinatorial March Down an Exponential Tail
A New Coefficient of Correlation: Supplementary Material: Proofs
Supercentenarian and remarkable age records exhibit patterns indicative of clerical errors and pension fraud
Low Base Rates Prevented Terman from Identifying Future Nobelists
Right-Tail Range Restriction: A Lurking Threat to Detecting Associations between Traits and Skill among Experts
Nature vs. Nurture: Have Performance Gaps Between Men and Women Reached an Asymptote?
Innovation and cumulative culture through tweaks and leaps in online programming contests
Is Individual Job Performance Distributed According to a Power Law? A Review of Methods for Comparing Heavy-Tailed Distributions
When Quality Beats Quantity: Decision Theory, Drug Discovery, and the Reproducibility Crisis
Comparing the Pearson and Spearman Correlation Coefficients across Distributions and Sample Sizes: A Tutorial Using Simulations and Empirical Data
The discovery of first-in-class drugs: origins and evolution
The Best And The Rest: Revisiting The Norm Of Normality Of Individual Performance
A Copula-Based Non-parametric Measure of Regression Dependence
On the distribution of time-to-proof of mathematical conjectures
A new car-following model yielding log-normal type headways distributions
The Major Role of Clinicians in the Discovery of Off-Label Drug Therapies
Computing the Distribution and Expected Value of the Concomitant Rank-Order Statistics
Accurate approximation to the extreme order statistics of Gaussian samples
Seeing The Forest From The Trees: When Predicting The Behavior Or Status Of Groups, Correlate Means
The Relevance of Group Membership for Personnel Selection: A Demonstration Using Bayes’ Theorem
Fairness in Employment Testing: Validity Generalization, Minority Issues, and the General Aptitude Test Battery
Maxima of Normal Random Vectors: Between Independence and Complete Dependence
The Asymptotic Theory of Extreme Order Statistics, Second Edition
An examination of two alternative techniques to estimate the standard deviation of job performance in dollars
Impact of valid selection procedures on work-force productivity
Asymptotic Independence of Certain Statistics Connected with the Extreme Order Statistics in a Bivariate Distribution
On the Statistics of Individual Variations of Productivity in Research Laboratories
The Asymptotical Distribution of Range in Samples from a Normal Population
The Relationship Of Validity Coefficients To The Practical Effectiveness Of Tests In Selection: Discussion And Tables
What Does It Mean to Have a Low R-Squared? A Warning about Misleading Interpretation
Univariate Distributional Analysis With L-Moment Statistics Using R
Analyzing DeepMind’s Probabilistic Methods for Evaluating Agent Capabilities
2024-08-21-gwern-tailcollapse-shrinkageofempiricalstandarddeviationafterresamblingmanygenerationswithoutbiascorrection.jpg
2022-07-25-gwern-activelearningvsrandomsearch-200simulationruns.webm
gwern-topp-necessarycorrelationstrengthtoreach50percent.jpg
gwern-orderstatistics-selection-bivariate-negativecorrelation.png
gwern-orderstatistics-increasedvarianceadvantage-n10000.png
gwern-orderstatistics-increasedvarianceadvantage-n1000.png
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https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EbFABnst8LsidYs5Y/goodhart-taxonomy
https://www.quantamagazine.org/computer-scientists-invent-an-efficient-new-way-to-count-20240516/
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Is Target-Based Drug Discovery Efficient? Discovery and ‘Off-Target’ Mechanisms of All Drugs
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Artificial intelligence in drug discovery: what is realistic, what are illusions? Part 1: Ways to make an impact, and why we are not there yet: Quality is more important than speed and cost in drug discovery
https%253A%252F%252Fwww.sciencedirect.com%252Fscience%252Farticle%252Fpii%252FS1359644620305274%2523sec0010.html
Recipes and Economic Growth: A Combinatorial March Down an Exponential Tail
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Is Individual Job Performance Distributed According to a Power Law? A Review of Methods for Comparing Heavy-Tailed Distributions
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The Best And The Rest: Revisiting The Norm Of Normality Of Individual Performance
Seeing The Forest From The Trees: When Predicting The Behavior Or Status Of Groups, Correlate Means
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The Relevance of Group Membership for Personnel Selection: A Demonstration Using Bayes’ Theorem
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