Bibliography:

‘statistics’ tag
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‘Stigler’s diet problem’ tag
‘adversarial examples (human)’ tag
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Statistical Notes
A/B testing long-form readability on Gwern.net
Dog Cloning For Special Forces: Breed All You Can Breed
Evolution as Backstop for Reinforcement Learning
Self-Blinded Mineral Water Taste Test
Local Optima & Greedy Choices
Banner Ads Considered Harmful
Embryo Selection For Intelligence
Redshift sleep experiment
Solving Pascal’s Mugging with Dynamic Programming
How Should We Critique Research?
Timing Technology: Lessons From The Media Lab
Are Sunk Costs Fallacies?
The Explore-Exploit Dilemma in Media Consumption
Embryo editing for intelligence
Frank P. Ramsey Bibliography
History of Iterated Embryo Selection
Life Extension Cost-Benefits
When Should I Check The Mail?
Internet WiFi improvement
AI Risk Demos
Caffeine wakeup experiment
Bitter Melon for blood glucose
Ethics of Lithotomy
Console Insurance Is A Ripoff
Centaur: a foundation model of human cognition
Towards a Law of Iterated Expectations for Heuristic Estimators
An Intuitive Explanation of Black-Scholes: I Explain the Black-Scholes Formula Using Only Basic Probability Theory and Calculus, With a Focus on the Big Picture and Intuition over Technical Details
Song Pong: Synchronizing Pong to Music With Constrained Optimization
An Abundance of Katherines: The Game Theory of Baby Naming
A Cellular Basis for Mapping Behavioral Structure
A/B Interactions: A Call to Relax
Using temperature to analyze the neural basis of a time-based decision
Combining Human Expertise with Artificial Intelligence: Experimental Evidence from Radiology
You And Your Research
Reinforcement Learning in Newcomb-like Environments
Conditional Causal Decision Theory Reduces to Evidential Decision Theory
The nematode worm C. elegans chooses between bacterial foods as if maximizing economic utility
Can GPT-3 produce new ideas? Partially automating Robin Hanson and others § If you never miss a plane…
How honey bees make fast and accurate decisions
Simulated automated facial recognition systems as decision-aids in forensic face matching tasks
Too Much Efficiency Makes Everything Worse: Overfitting and the Strong Version of Goodhart’s Law
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Peltzman Revisited: Quantifying 21^st-Century Opportunity Costs of FDA Regulation
Problem 14 Dynamic Programming Solutions
Modeling Bounded Rationality in Multi-Agent Simulations Using Rationally Inattentive Reinforcement Learning
Learning with Differentiable Algorithms
Revisiting the Temporal Pattern of Regret in Action Versus Inaction: Replication of Gilovich & Medvec 1994 With Extensions Examining Responsibility
This Is Air: The ‘Non-Health’ Effects of Air Pollution
The forecast trap
Efficiently irrational: deciphering the riddle of human choice
A Systematic Review of Human Challenge Trials, Designs, and Safety
Which Findings Should Be Published?
The InterModel Vigorish (IMV): A flexible and portable approach for quantifying predictive accuracy with binary outcomes
False Discovery in A/B Testing
Noise Increases Anchoring Effects
A rational reinterpretation of dual-process theories
ν-SDDP: Neural Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming
Prior knowledge elicitation: The past, present, and future
Strategically overconfident (to a fault): How self-promotion motivates advisor confidence
A confirmation bias in perceptual decision-making due to hierarchical approximate inference
Enhanced rationality in autism spectrum disorder
TV Advertising Effectiveness and Profitability: Generalizable Results From 288 Brands
Steps of Reasoning in Children and Adolescents
Learning to hesitate
Alignment Problems With Current Forecasting Platforms
Agent Incentives: A Causal Perspective
Solving Mixed Integer Programs Using Neural Networks
The causal foundations of applied probability and statistics
Adversarial vulnerabilities of human decision-making
Targeting for long-term outcomes
The Temporal Dynamics of Opportunity Costs: A Normative Account of Cognitive Fatigue and Boredom
Optimal Peanut Butter and Banana Sandwiches
Robust Decision Theory and Econometrics
Speed-accuracy trade-off in plants
Modeling Imprecision in Perception, Valuation, and Choice
A Comparison of Methods for Treatment Assignment with an Application to Playlist Generation
The Secret History of Facial Recognition: Sixty years ago, a sharecropper’s son invented a technology to identify faces. Then the record of his role all but vanished. Who was Woody Bledsoe, and who was he working for?
How People Decide What They Want to Know
The Gambler’s Problem and Beyond
On ‘Statistical Inference Enables Bad Science; Statistical Thinking Enables Good Science’, Tong 2019
The Vulnerable World Hypothesis
A/B Testing With Fat Tails
A Scientific Approach to Entrepreneurial Decision Making: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial
Bayesian Persuasion and Information Design
Generalizable and Robust TV Advertising Effects
Is the FDA too conservative or too aggressive?: A Bayesian decision analysis of clinical trial design
Using the Results from Rigorous Multisite Evaluations to Inform Local Policy Decisions
Reinventing the Wheel: Discovering the Optimal Rolling Shape With PyTorch
Test Driving ‘Power of Two Random Choices’ Load Balancing
Accounting Theory as a Bayesian Discipline
Test & Roll: Profit-Maximizing A/B Tests
Computational noise in reward-guided learning drives behavioral variability in volatile environments
Effects of Non-normal Performance Distributions on the Accuracy of Utility Analysis
ActiveRemediation: The Search for Lead Pipes in Flint, Michigan
Delayed Impact of Fair Machine Learning
Ordered Preference Elicitation Strategies for Supporting Multi-Objective Decision Making
Differentiable Dynamic Programming for Structured Prediction and Attention
P-Hacking and False Discovery in A/B Testing
How to train your oracle: The Delphi method and its turbulent youth in operations research and the policy sciences
Better Decision Making in Drug Development Through Adoption of Formal Prior Elicitation
Willpower Satisficing
Toward a Rational and Mechanistic Account of Mental Effort
Pricing the Future in the 17^th Century: Calculating Technologies in Competition
The Reinhardt Conjecture as an Optimal Control Problem
The Kelly Coin-Flipping Game: Exact Solutions
Bamboo Garden Trimming Problem (Perpetual Maintenance of Machines with Different Attendance Urgency Factors)
Rational Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Observed Betting Patterns on a Biased Coin
Was Angelina Jolie Right? Optimizing Cancer Prevention Strategies Among BRCA Mutation Carriers
The Risk Elicitation Puzzle
Search in Patchy Media: Exploitation-Exploration Tradeoff
The Performance Pay Nobel
Blood sugar level follows perceived time rather than actual time in people with type 2 diabetes
Brainless but Multi-Headed: Decision Making by the Acellular Slime Mould Physarum polycephalum
Deep DPG (DDPG): Continuous control with deep reinforcement learning
Reflective Oracles: A Foundation for Classical Game Theory
Costs and benefits of iodine supplementation for pregnant women in a mildly to moderately iodine-deficient population: a modeling analysis
The Unfavorable Economics of Measuring the Returns to Advertising
When causation does not imply correlation: robust violations of the Faithfulness axiom
Objective Bayesian Two Sample Hypothesis Testing for Online Controlled Experiments
Selectiongain: an R Package for Optimizing Multi-Stage Selection
Focusing on the Long-term: It’s Good for Users and Business
Red Black Card Game and Generalized Catalan Numbers
Your Life in Weeks
Entanglement guarantees emergence of cooperation in quantum prisoner’s dilemma games on networks
On the Near Impossibility of Measuring the Returns to Advertising
The Wait Calculation: The Broader Consequences of the Minimum Time from Now to Interstellar Destinations and its Statistical-Significance to the Space Economy
Rerandomization to improve covariate balance in experiments
Does Retail Advertising Work? Measuring the Effects of Advertising on Sales Via a Controlled Experiment on Yahoo
Utility of Human-Computer Interactions: Toward a Science of Preference Measurement
Here, there, and everywhere: correlated online behaviors can lead to overestimates of the effects of advertising
Travelers’ types
Improving Vineyard Sampling Efficiency via Dynamic Spatially Explicit Optimization
The time resolution of the St Petersburg paradox
On the Heritability of Consumer Decision Making: An Exploratory Approach for Studying Genetic Effects on Judgment and Choice
How to improve R&D productivity: the pharmaceutical industry’s grand challenge
Drug Harms in the UK: a Multicriteria Decision Analysis
Are birds smarter than mathematicians? Pigeons (Columba livia) perform optimally on a version of the Monty Hall Dilemma
Convergence of Expected Utility for Universal AI
When to Stop: How to Gamble If You Must—The Mathematics of Optimal Stopping
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Adversarial Risk Analysis
Strategic Reliabilism: A Naturalistic Approach to Epistemology
Retrospectives Guinnessometrics: The Economic Foundation of ‘Student’s’ t
Convergence of Expected Utilities with Algorithmic Probability Distributions
Logarithmic regret algorithms for online convex optimization
The Guidelines Manual—Chapter 8: Incorporating Health Economics in Guidelines and Assessing Resource Impact
On the Evolution of Investment Strategies and the Kelly Rule—A Darwinian Approach
The Cambist and Lord Iron: A Fairy Tale of Economics
Cognition and Behavior in Two-Person Guessing Games: An Experimental Study
Information Systems Project Continuation in Escalation Situations: A Real Options Model
Decision by sampling
Interstellar Travel: The Wait Calculation and the Incentive Trap of Progress
The Optimizer’s Curse: Skepticism and Postdecision Surprise in Decision Analysis
Good and Real: Demystifying Paradoxes from Physics to Ethics
The Kelly Criterion in Blackjack Sports Betting, and the Stock Market
Investing in the Unknown and Unknowable
A systematic review on communicating with patients about evidence
Uncertainty and the Value of Diagnostic Information, With Application to Axillary Lymph Node Dissection in Breast Cancer
Bayesian Informal Logic and Fallacy
The Problem of Thinking Too Much
Policy Mining: Learning Decision Policies from Fixed Sets of Data
John W. Tukey: His Life and Professional Contributions
DART: Revolutionizing Logistics Planning
Comments on the Origin and Application of Markov Decision Processes
William Sealy Gosset
Bayesian Value-Of-Information Analysis: an Application to a Policy Model of Alzheimer’s Disease
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The Power of Two Random Choices: A Survey of Techniques and Results
The Contributions of the Economics of Information to 20^th Century Economics
Should we take measurements at an intermediate design point?
Rational Choice Theory
Averaging Expert Predictions
Comparing classifiers when the misallocation costs are uncertain
Adding Risks: Samuelson's Fallacy of Large Numbers Revisited
A Representation Theorem for Causal Decision Theory
A Conversation With I. Richard Savage (with the Assistance of Bruce Spencer)
Information Theory and an Extension of the Maximum Likelihood Principle
‘Improving ratings’: audit in the British University system
The Cold War, RAND, and the Generation of Knowledge, 1946–1962
The ‘Awful Idea of Accountability’: Inscribing People into the Measurement of Objects
Comments on Tengs Et Al ‘Comparative Study of the Cost-Effectiveness of Life-Saving Interventions’
Seeing The Forest From The Trees: When Predicting The Behavior Or Status Of Groups, Correlate Means
Five-Hundred Life-Saving Interventions and Their Cost-Effectiveness
Noise and Learning in Semiconductor Manufacturing
Processing Linguistic Probabilities: General Principles and Empirical Evidence
_Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory_
Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping and Wagering Systems: A Report
The temporal pattern to the experience of regret
Bayesian updating in hierarchic Markov processes applied to the animal replacement problem
Universal Portfolios
Learning from Coarse Information: Biased Contests and Career Profiles
F. P. Ramsey: Philosophical Papers
‘Student’: A Statistical Biography of William Sealy Gosset
Weight or the Value of Knowledge
The Total Evidence Theorem for Probability Kinematics
Nonlinear Preference and Utility Theory
A Shortest Augmenting Path Algorithm for Dense and Sparse Linear Assignment Problems
Measuring the vague meanings of probability terms
Noise
Can people behave ‘randomly’?: The role of feedback
Searching for Positive Returns at the Track: A Multinomial Logit Model for Handicapping Horse Races
An examination of two alternative techniques to estimate the standard deviation of job performance in dollars
Game Theoretic Analysis of a Bankruptcy Problem from the Talmud
Re-Evaluation of Decision Alternatives Dependent upon the Reversibility of a Decision and the Passage of Time
Influence Diagrams
The Citation Bias: Fad and Fashion in the Judgment and Decision Literature
Readings on the Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis: Volume 1: General Collection
Readings on the Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis: Volume 2: Professional Collection
Belief in God: A Game-Theoretic Paradox
The Variance of Discounted Markov Decision Processes
What Good Are Warfare Models?
Multi-Bayesian Statistical Decision Theory
Reversible and Irreversible Decisions: Preference for Consonant Information As a Function of Attractiveness of Decision Alternatives
The Statistical Research Group, 1942–1945
Prisoners' Dilemma Is a Newcomb Problem
Impact of valid selection procedures on work-force productivity
Robustness in the Strategy of Scientific Model Building
Tools for Thought
Science and Statistics
Boundaries of Analysis: An Inquiry into the Tocks Island Dam Controversy
When Values Conflict: Essays on Environmental Analysis, Discourse, and Decision
Portfolio Choice and the Kelly Criterion
Cross-Modality Matching of Money Against Other Continua
The General Impossibility of Normative Accounting Standards
An Evaluation of Consumer Protection Legislation: The 1962 Drug Amendments
The Theory of Social Choice
What Makes for a Beautiful Problem in Science?
The Practicality Gap
General Proof That Diversification Pays
Optimal Dairy Cow Replacement Policies
Systems Analysis Problems of Limited War
Measuring utility by a single-response sequential method
Sequential Medical Trials
A Model for Selecting One of Two Medical Treatments
Probability, Statistical Decision Theory, and Accounting
Studies of War, Nuclear and Conventional
Applied Statistical Decision Theory
Gradient Theory of Optimal Flight Paths
Letter to the Editor—A Classroom Example of Linear Programming (Lesson Number 2)
Rational Decision-Making In Portfolio Management
Criteria for Choice Among Risky Ventures
Testing Statistical Hypotheses (First Edition)
Probability and Statistics for Business Decisions: An Introduction to Managerial Economics Under Uncertainty
An Optimum Character Recognition System Using Decision Functions
Evolutionary Operation: A Method for Increasing Industrial Productivity
Unsolved Problems of Experimental Statistics
Non-Cooperative Games
The Economic Life of Industrial Equipment
The Relationship Of Validity Coefficients To The Practical Effectiveness Of Tests In Selection: Discussion And Tables
"Student" as Statistician
Presidential Address to the First Indian Statistical Congress
On the Theory of Apportionment
The Lanarkshire Milk Experiment
Pasteurised and Raw Milk
The Lanarkshire Milk Experiment [Student]
On Testing Varieties of Cereals
The Application Of The ‘Law Of Error’ To The Work Of The Brewery
Brian Christian on Computer Science Algorithms That Tackle Fundamental and Universal Problems
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When RAND Made Magic in Santa Monica
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Bayesian Optimization Book
The Final Cut [Ford-Fulkerson’s Max-Flow Min-Cut As Planning Paradigm]
In Praise of Sparsity and Convexity
Measurement, Benchmarking, and Data Analysis Are Underrated
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Solving Probabilistic Tic-Tac-Toe
Jury Theorems
Quantum-Bayesian and Pragmatist Views of Quantum Theory
Scaling up Linear Programming With PDLP
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The Science of Production
The Battleships Game That Countered German U-Boat Attacks During WW2
New Winning Strategies for the Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma
In Strategic Time, Open-Source Games Are Loopy
Research Update: Towards a Law of Iterated Expectations for Heuristic Estimators
Why We Can’t Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They’re Unbiased)
Fat Tails Discourage Compromise
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Optimizing Crop Planting With Mixed Integer Linear Programming in Stardew Valley
Leaky Delegation: You Are Not a Commodity
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Probable Points and Credible Intervals, Part 2: Decision Theory
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1987-macgregor.pdf
1986-lehmann-testingstatisticalhypotheses.pdf
1986-stephens-foragingtheory.pdf
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1984-thorp-themathematicsofgambling-ch4.pdf
1983-hauer.pdf
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1972-savage-foundationsofstatistics.pdf
1968-cohen.pdf
1965-black.pdf
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1933-thompson.pdf
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An Abundance of Katherines: The Game Theory of Baby Naming
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Combining Human Expertise with Artificial Intelligence: Experimental Evidence from Radiology
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You And Your Research
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Can GPT-3 produce new ideas? Partially automating Robin Hanson and others § If you never miss a plane…
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Simulated automated facial recognition systems as decision-aids in forensic face matching tasks
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Peltzman Revisited: Quantifying 21^st-Century Opportunity Costs of FDA Regulation
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Problem 14 Dynamic Programming Solutions
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Modeling Bounded Rationality in Multi-Agent Simulations Using Rationally Inattentive Reinforcement Learning
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Efficiently irrational: deciphering the riddle of human choice
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False Discovery in A/B Testing
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Steps of Reasoning in Children and Adolescents
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Speed-accuracy trade-off in plants
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Effects of Non-normal Performance Distributions on the Accuracy of Utility Analysis
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The Kelly Coin-Flipping Game: Exact Solutions
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Bamboo Garden Trimming Problem (Perpetual Maintenance of Machines with Different Attendance Urgency Factors)
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The Performance Pay Nobel
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The Cambist and Lord Iron: A Fairy Tale of Economics
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Interstellar Travel: The Wait Calculation and the Incentive Trap of Progress
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Comments on the Origin and Application of Markov Decision Processes
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The Power of Two Random Choices: A Survey of Techniques and Results
https%253A%252F%252Fwww.ic.unicamp.br%252F~celio%252Fpeer2peer%252Fmath%252Fmitzenmacher-power-of-two.pdf.html
Seeing The Forest From The Trees: When Predicting The Behavior Or Status Of Groups, Correlate Means
%252Fdoc%252Fstatistics%252Forder%252F1996-lubinski-2.pdf.html
Robustness in the Strategy of Scientific Model Building
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Wikipedia Bibliography: