Automated Social Science: Language Models as Scientist and Subjects
Covid-19 is (Probably) Not an Exogenous Shock or Valid Instrument
Do Models Explain Themselves? Counterfactual Simulatability of Natural Language Explanations
Attributing agnostically detected large reductions in road CO2 emissions to policy mixes
The Magnitude Heuristic: Larger Differences Increase Perceived Causality
Clarifying the causes of consistent and inconsistent findings in genetics
Residual Confounding in Health Plan Performance Assessments: Evidence From Randomization in Medicaid
Learning Causal Overhypotheses through Exploration in Children and Computational Models
Causal emergence is widespread across measures of causation
Megastudies improve the impact of applied behavioral science
Inducing Causal Structure for Interpretable Neural Networks (IIT)
Testing the structure of human cognitive ability using evidence obtained from the impact of brain lesions over abilities
Providing a lower-bound estimate for psychology’s ‘crud factor’: The case of aggression
Is Coffee the Cause or the Cure? Conflicting Nutrition Messages in 2 Decades of Online New York Times’ Nutrition News Coverage
Causal and Associational Linking Language From Observational Research and Health Evaluation Literature in Practice: A systematic language evaluation
Common elective orthopaedic procedures and their clinical effectiveness: umbrella review of level 1 evidence
What Is Your Estimand? Defining the Target Quantity Connects Statistical Evidence to Theory
The revolution will be hard to evaluate: How co-occurring policy changes affect research on the health effects of social policies
The piranha problem: Large effects swimming in a small pond
My cat Chester’s dynamical systems analysyyyyy7777777777777777y7is of the laser pointer and the red dot on the wall: correlation, causation, or SARS-Cov-2 hallucination?
Interpolating Causal Mechanisms: The Paradox of Knowing More
Quantifying causality in data science with quasi-experiments
Intelligence and General Psychopathology in the Vietnam Experience Study: A Closer Look
The causal foundations of applied probability and statistics
Objecting to experiments even while approving of the policies or treatments they compare
Generative Adversarial Phonology: Modeling unsupervised phonetic and phonological learning with neural networks
Rethinking Causation for Data-intensive Biology: Constraints, Cancellations, and Quantized Organisms: Causality in complex organisms is sculpted by constraints rather than instigators, with outcomes perhaps better described by quantized patterns than rectilinear pathways
Why the Increasing Use of Complex Causal Models Is a Problem: On the Danger Sophisticated Theoretical Narratives Pose to Truth
Reward Tampering Problems and Solutions in Reinforcement Learning: A Causal Influence Diagram Perspective
A Comparison of Approaches to Advertising Measurement: Evidence from Big Field Experiments at Facebook
Correlation = Causation? Music Training, Psychology, and Neuroscience
Effect of a Workplace Wellness Program on Employee Health and Economic Outcomes: A Randomized Clinical Trial
Why scatter plots suggest causality, and what we can do about it
Using genetic data to strengthen causal inference in observational research
Causal language and strength of inference in academic and media articles shared in social media (CLAIMS): A systematic review
Measuring Consumer Sensitivity to Audio Advertising: A Field Experiment on Pandora Internet Radio
A combined analysis of genetically correlated traits identifies 187 loci and a role for neurogenesis and myelination in intelligence
Polygenic prediction of the phenome, across ancestry, in emerging adulthood
Percutaneous coronary intervention in stable angina (ORBITA): a double-blind, randomized controlled trial
Implicit Causal Models for Genome-wide Association Studies
Bias and high-dimensional adjustment in observational studies of peer effects
The surprising implications of familial association in disease risk
Redundancy, Unilateralism and Bias beyond GDP—results of a Global Index Benchmark
Coz: Finding Parallel Code that Counts with Causal Profiling
Agreement of treatment effects for mortality from routinely collected data and subsequent randomized trials: meta-epidemiological survey
Shared genetic aetiology between cognitive functions and physical and mental health in UK Biobank (n = 112,151) and 24 GWAS consortia
A Test of Exogeneity Without Instrumental Variables in Models With Bunching
The Unfavorable Economics of Measuring the Returns to Advertising
Mendelian Randomization with invalid instruments: effect estimation and bias detection through Egger regression (MR-Egger)
Bounding a Linear Causal Effect Using Relative Correlation Restrictions
When causation does not imply correlation: robust violations of the Faithfulness axiom
When Correcting for Unreliability of Job Performance Ratings, the Best Estimate Is Still 0.52
The Mystery Machine: End-to-end performance analysis of large-scale Internet services
Observational Studies Often Make Clinical Practice Recommendations: an Empirical Evaluation of Authors' Attitudes
A Decade of Reversal: An Analysis of 146 Contradicted Medical Practices
Does Retail Advertising Work? Measuring the Effects of Advertising on Sales Via a Controlled Experiment on Yahoo
Here, there, and everywhere: correlated online behaviors can lead to overestimates of the effects of advertising
The Possibility of Unmeasured Confounding Variables in Observational Studies: a Forgotten Fact?
Overestimation of the effects of adherence on outcomes: a case study in healthy user bias and hypertension
Causal Inference and Observational Research: The Utility of Twins
Association of Bisphenol A With Diabetes and Other Abnormalities
Retrospectives Guinnessometrics: The Economic Foundation of ‘Student’s’ t
Systematic Reviews of Animal Experiments Demonstrate Poor Contributions Toward Human Healthcare
Clustered Environments and Randomized Genes: A Fundamental Distinction between Conventional and Genetic Epidemiology
How close is close enough? Evaluating propensity score matching using data from a class size reduction experiment
Proceeding From Observed Correlation to Causal Inference: The Use of Natural Experiments
Comparison of evidence on harms of medical interventions in randomized and nonrandomized studies
Contradicted and Initially Stronger Effects in Highly Cited Clinical Research
Looking to the 21st Century: Have We Learned from Our Mistakes, or Are We Doomed to Compound Them?
Testing Hypotheses about the Relationship between Cannabis Use and Psychosis
Personal Reflections on Lessons Learned from Randomized Trials Involving Newborn Infants, 1951–1967
Nonexperimental Replications of Social Experiments: A Systematic Review
It pays to be ignorant: A simple political economy of rigorous program evaluation
Can Nonexperimental Comparison Group Methods Match the Findings from a Random Assignment Evaluation of Mandatory Welfare-to-Work Programs? MDRC Working Papers on Research Methodology
Comparison of Evidence of Treatment Effects in Randomized and Nonrandomized Studies
Crosstalk and specificity in signaling: Are we crosstalking ourselves into general confusion?
Causal Effects in Nonexperimental Studies: Reevaluating the Evaluation of Training Programs
Interpreting the evidence: choosing between randomized and non-randomized studies
Spurious precision? Meta-analysis of observational studies
Who Goes First? The Story of Self-Experimentation in Medicine
The unpredictability paradox: review of empirical comparisons of randomized and non-randomized clinical trials
Evaluating Program Evaluations: New Evidence on Commonly Used Nonexperimental Methods
Inferring the direction of causation in cross-sectional twin data: Theoretical and empirical considerations
Testing hypotheses about direction of causation using cross-sectional family data
Bias in Relative Odds Estimation owing to Imprecise Measurement of Correlated Exposures
Smoking As ‘Independent’ Risk Factor for Suicide: Illustration of an Artifact from Observational Epidemiology?
How Independent Are ‘Independent’ Effects? Relative Risk Estimation When Correlated Exposures Are Measured Imprecisely
Developing improved observational methods for evaluating therapeutic effectiveness
Memories of the British Streptomycin Trial in Tuberculosis: The First Randomized Trial
The Adequacy of Comparison Group Designs for Evaluations of Employment-Related Programs
Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs with Experimental Data
Heredity, Environment, & Personality: A Study of 850 Sets of Twins
On Prior Probabilities of Rejecting Statistical Hypotheses
A Computer Movie Simulating Urban Growth in the Detroit Region
Distributions of Correlation Coefficients in Economic Time Series
The Fallacy Of The Null-Hypothesis Statistical-Significance Test
The Influence of ‘Statistical Methods for Research Workers’ on the Development of the Science of Statistics
Why Do We Sometimes Get Nonsense-Correlations between Time-Series?--A Study in Sampling and the Nature of Time-Series
Behavior Genetic Frameworks of Causal Reasoning for Personality Psychology
Inventing the Randomized Double-Blind Trial: The Nürnberg Salt Test of 1835
2023-jeng-figure1-cumulativedistributionofabtestinteractionpvaluetestsshowingnearzeropresenceofinteractions.jpg
2022-wallace-figure1-differencebetweenrandomizedandcorelationalestimatesfromlouisianamedicaidnaturalexperiment.jpg
2021-05-21-meme-theyrethesamephoto-judeapearl-colliderbias.jpg
2019-12-21-gwern-meme-ancientaliens-correlationcausation.jpg
2018-jones-supplement-randomizedvscorrelation-tablea3-ac.png
2018-jones-supplement-randomizedvscorrelation-tablea3-de.png
2018-jones-supplement-randomizedvscorrelation-tablea3-fg.png
https://www.harvardmagazine.com/2012/02/twilight-of-the-lecture
2007-wilde-table5-experimentalvsnonexperimentalestimatesinprojectstar.jpg
http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/unpublished/reversecausal_13oct05.pdf
https://books.worksinprogress.co/book/maintenance-of-everything/vehicles/what-motorcycles-teach-about-maintenance/4
https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.648.1155
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4022745
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2024/01/15/a-feedback-loop-can-destroy-correlation-this-idea-comes-up-in-many-places/
https://www.chess.com/article/view/no-castling-chess-kramnik-alphazero
https://www.the100.ci/2023/03/07/non-representative-samples-what-could-possibly-go-wrong/
Clarifying the causes of consistent and inconsistent findings in genetics
https%253A%252F%252Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%252Fdoi%252Ffull%252F10.1002%252Fgepi.22459.html
Residual Confounding in Health Plan Performance Assessments: Evidence From Randomization in Medicaid
%252Fdoc%252Fstatistics%252Fcausality%252F2022-wallace.pdf.html
Megastudies improve the impact of applied behavioral science
%252Fdoc%252Fstatistics%252Fprediction%252F2021-milkman.pdf.html
The piranha problem: Large effects swimming in a small pond
Coz: Finding Parallel Code that Counts with Causal Profiling
Overestimation of the effects of adherence on outcomes: a case study in healthy user bias and hypertension
%252Fdoc%252Fstatistics%252Fcausality%252F2011-lafleur.pdf.html
It pays to be ignorant: A simple political economy of rigorous program evaluation
Inferring the direction of causation in cross-sectional twin data: Theoretical and empirical considerations
%252Fdoc%252Fgenetics%252Fheritable%252Fcorrelation%252F1994-duffy.pdf.html
Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs with Experimental Data
Wikipedia Bibliography:
