Bibliography:

  1. Automation As Colonization Wave

  2. ‘economics’ tag

  3. ‘Metcalfe’s Law’ tag

  4. ‘AI economics’ tag

  5. ‘experience curves’ tag

  6. ‘robotics’ tag

  7. Evolution as Backstop for Reinforcement Learning

  8. ARPA and SCI: Surfing AI

  9. Complexity no Bar to AI

  10. The Hyperbolic Time Chamber & Brain Emulation

  11. Why Tool AIs Want to Be Agent AIs

  12. Getting AI Datacenters in the UK: Why the UK Needs to Create Special Compute Zones; and How to Do It

  13. More to Lose: The Adverse Effect of High Performance Ranking on Employees’ Pre-implementation Attitudes Toward the Integration of Powerful AI Aids

  14. McDonald’s Touchscreen Kiosks Were Feared As Job Killers. Instead, Something Surprising Happened

  15. [Yacht laptops: more dakka]

  16. Philippines’ Call Centers Navigate AI Impact on Jobs

  17. AI Doesn’t Kill Jobs? Tell That to Freelancers: There’s now data to back up what freelancers have been saying for months

  18. Election Workers Are Drowning in Records Requests. AI Chatbots Could Make It Worse: Experts worry that election deniers could weaponize chatbots to overwhelm and slow down local officials

  19. Generative AI and the Future of Work: A Reappraisal

  20. Answering the Call of Automation: How the Labor Market Adjusted to Mechanizing Telephone Operation

  21. Who Is AI Replacing? The Impact of Generative AI on Online Freelancing Platforms

  22. Over 3 Decades, Tech Obliterated Media: My Front-Row Seat to a Slow-Moving Catastrophe

  23. Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI

  24. Generative AI is already widespread in the public sector

  25. Artificial Intelligence in the Knowledge Economy

  26. AI and Jobs: Has the Inflection Point Arrived? Evidence from an Online Labor Platform

  27. Consulting Giants See AI Shaving Years Off the Path to Partner

  28. Computer Center Sabotage, 1968–1971: Luddism, Black Studies, and the Diversion of Technological Progress

  29. Explosive growth from AI automation: A review of the arguments

  30. "Generate" the Future of Work through AI: Empirical Evidence from Online Labor Markets

  31. LLMs as Workers in Human-Computational Algorithms? Replicating Crowdsourcing Pipelines with LLMs

  32. Online Appendices for ‘Structural Change and Internal Labor Migration: Evidence from the Great Depression’

  33. Structural Change and Internal Labor Migration: Evidence from the Great Depression

  34. Combining Human Expertise with Artificial Intelligence: Experimental Evidence from Radiology

  35. People Hire Phone Bots to Torture Telemarketers: AI software and voice cloners simulate distracted saps willing to stay on the phone forever—or until callers finally give up

  36. Appendix for Online Publication 'Do Robots Increase Wealth Dispersion?', Gomes et al 2023

  37. Do Robots Increase Wealth Dispersion?

  38. Today was the first day that I could definitively say that GPT-4 has saved me a substantial amount of tedious work

  39. Generative AI at Work

  40. When and How Artificial Intelligence Augments Employee Creativity

  41. GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models

  42. The Characteristics and Geographic Distribution of Robot Hubs in US Manufacturing Establishments

  43. GPT-3 as Knowledge Worker: A Zero-Shot Evaluation of AI CPA Capabilities

  44. On the feasibility of technosocialism

  45. Exposure to automation explains religious declines

  46. AI, Ageing and Brain-Work Productivity: Technological Change in Professional Japanese Chess

  47. Will the AI revolution cause a great divergence?

  48. The Wild, Wonderful World of Estate Sales: The estate-sale industry is fragile and persistent in a way that doesn’t square with the story of the world as we have come to expect it

  49. Latency

  50. The Rise of the Machines: Automation, Horizontal Innovation, and Income Inequality

  51. Robots and Firm Investment

  52. What is the point of computers? A question for pure mathematicians

  53. Hyperspecialization and hyperscaling: A resource-based theory of the digital firm

  54. Cognitive Performance in Remote Work: Evidence from Professional Chess

  55. Technological change and obsolete skills: Evidence from men’s professional tennis

  56. On the Opportunities and Risks of Foundation Models

  57. Does the rise of robotic technology make people healthier?

  58. The ‘sailing-ship effect’ as a technological principle

  59. The Life Cycle of Businesses and their Internal Organization

  60. ChinAI #137: Year 3 of ChinAI: Reflections on the newsworthiness of machine translation

  61. Film Festivals Are Evolving for the Better: COVID-19 is making big, week-long gatherings of cinephiles complicated, if not impossible. What emerges in their place could change the cinema landscape

  62. The Productivity J-Curve: How Intangibles Complement General Purpose Technologies

  63. Why Working From Home Will Stick

  64. The 2020s Political Economy of Machine Translation

  65. Industry Concentration and Information Technology

  66. Superexponential [Modeling the Human Trajectory]

  67. Modeling the Human Trajectory

  68. Transatlantic Technologies: The Role of ICT in the Evolution of US and European Productivity Growth

  69. AI Helps Warehouse Robots Pick Up New Tricks: Backed by machine learning luminaries, Covariant.ai’s bots can handle jobs previously needing a human touch

  70. Testing the Automation Revolution Hypothesis

  71. Automation As Colonization Wave (OB)

  72. ‘What’s Wrong With The Way I Talk?’ The Effect Of Sound Motion Pictures On Actor Careers

  73. Does Machine Translation Affect International Trade? Evidence from a Large Digital Platform

  74. The Robot Revolution: Managerial and Employment Consequences for Firms

  75. Is an Army of Robots Marching on Chinese Jobs?

  76. Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics

  77. ‘Automation’ of Manufacturing in the Late 19th Century: The Hand and Machine Labor Study

  78. Profiling the international academic ghost writers who are providing low-cost essays and assignments for the contract cheating industry

  79. Hyperbolic growth

  80. The Price of Nails since 1700: Even Simple Products Experienced Large Price Declines

  81. The Economic Impact of Moore’s Law: Evidence from When it Faltered

  82. No Great Technological Stagnation

  83. Before The Startup

  84. Is US Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the 6 Headwinds

  85. Dispelling the myth of robotic efficiency: why human space exploration will tell us more about the Solar System than will robotic exploration alone

  86. Hall’s Law: The 19th Century Prequel to Moore’s Law

  87. Americans Do IT Better: US Multinationals and the Productivity Miracle

  88. Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence

  89. InterNyet: why the Soviet Union did not build a nationwide computer network

  90. Economics Of The Singularity: Stuffed into skyscrapers by the billion, brainy bugbots will be the knowledge workers of the future

  91. The Economics of Has-beens

  92. Computing Productivity: Firm-Level Evidence

  93. The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration

  94. Technical Change, Inequality, and the Labor Market

  95. Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Models

  96. Beyond Computation: Information Technology, Organizational Transformation and Business Performance

  97. Certificates and Computers: The Remaking of Wall Street, 1967–1971

  98. Balancing Act: How to Capture Knowledge Without Killing It

  99. Beyond the productivity paradox

  100. Office productivity: the impacts of staffing, intellectual specialization and technology

  101. Organizational Transformation as Punctuated Equilibrium: An Empirical Test

  102. Don’t Fire the Clerical Staff!

  103. Survey finds low office productivity linked to staffing imbalances

  104. Lisp: Good News, Bad News, How to Win Big [Worse Is Better]

  105. The Dynamo and the Computer: A Historical Perspective on the Modern Productivity Paradox

  106. Computer and Dynamo: The Modern Productivity Paradox In A Not-Too Distant Mirror

  107. We’d Better Watch Out [Review of Manufacturing Matters: The Myth of the Post-Industrial Economy, Cohen & Zysman 1987]

  108. Designing Organizations for an Information-Rich World

  109. Optimum Location in Spatial Competition

  110. Increasing Returns and Economic Progress

  111. Rise of the Robots Speeds Up in Pandemic With U.S. Labor Scarce

  112. What Explains the Evolution of Management Models over the past Two Centuries?

  113. The Soul of Maintaining a New Machine—First Draft

  114. Technology Transfer and Early Industrial Development: The Case of the Sino-Soviet Alliance

  115. Remote Work and the Future of Innovation

  116. Beware of the Robot Pharmacist

  117. The End of Starsky Robotics

  118. The Poor ROI of Autonomy. A Product Dive on How Most ROI Comes...

  119. The Puzzle of the Missing Robots

  120. fb9d7de114dd07499d547ddca9d5484091bedfb5.html

  121. Reflections on Palantir [After Leaving]

  122. Overboard On Offshore Fears

  123. ‘Rasmussen and Practical Drift: Drift towards Danger and the Normalization of Deviance’, 2017

  124. No Human Can Match This High-Speed Box-Unloading Robot Named After a Pickle

  125. An Army of Grain-Harvesting Robots Marches Across Russia

  126. 332dd95d8613e7f5d9eea95f4c89067b8143628e.html

  127. Today’s Robotic Surgery Turns Surgical Trainees Into Spectators

  128. e0485fb7fac7651cd2c51d20c497fd0ce8c09464.html

  129. Roomba Inventor Joe Jones on His New Weed-Killing Robot, and What’s So Hard About Consumer Robotics

  130. Selling Software To Large Businesses

  131. Winged Luddites: Aviators Are the Biggest Threat to Carrier Aviation

  132. cbf2a7e357cf7fefb1cf119731e3ef8bfeee8b7d.html

  133. The Robots Are Coming for Garment Workers

  134. c42181c63db6669de23dc07ea44dce68ab814d39.html

  135. Alibaba's Driverless Robots Just Made Their One Millionth E-Commerce Delivery

  136. 6e4b30e6e9558984e169e4c320841c6ee66be19d.html

  137. The March of Robots Into Chinese Factories

  138. The U.S. Productivity Slowdown: an Economy-Wide and Industry-Level Analysis

  139. General Purpose Technologies and the Rise & Fall of Great Powers

  140. 1e78cf53d012984076e7045143d486a97496ab12.html

  141. Where Are The Robotic Bricklayers?

  142. Japan Is Both Obsessed With and Resistant to Robots

  143. Kai-Fu Lee on How Covid Spurs China’s Great Robotic Leap Forward

  144. Economists Are Revising Their Views on Robots and Jobs

  145. What Is It like to Work in an Ethiopian Factory?

  146. Is Software Eating the World?

  147. Welcoming Our New Robot Overlords

  148. The Age of Robot Farmers

  149. Paging Dr. Robot

  150. What Robots Can—And Can’t—Do for the Old and Lonely

  151. Invasion of the Robot Umpires

  152. Robotic Milkers and an Automated Greenhouse: Inside a High-Tech Small Farm

  153. The Robots Are Coming for Phil in Accounting

  154. ‘We Don’t Need Another Michelangelo’: In Italy, It’s Robots’ Turn to Sculpt

  155. A New Generation of AI-Powered Robots Is Taking over Warehouses

  156. c085fd18b23c9baacb5087bdccdc9bd251cb2fac.html

  157. How Graze Mowing's Self-Driving Mower Is Disrupting the $100 Billion Commercial Landscaping Industry

  158. aa9ccdcbf164e2e9fa57a790d9328c989716d65d.html

  159. Tog’s Paradox [Jevons Paradox for Software Features]

  160. Turns Out the Dot-Com Bust’s Worst Flops Were Actually Fantastic Ideas

  161. Inside the Amazon Warehouse Where Humans and Machines Become One

  162. Robots Are Fueling the Quiet Ascendance of the Electric Motor

  163. f7b40f275a1312b6822ca8254dbe376527e51c36.html

  164. As Robots Fill the Workplace, They Must Learn to Get Along

  165. 486872b2237b0d8c373723bd35031d0dae2ae7b0.html

  166. These Robots Follow You to Learn Where to Go

  167. 4a2f69015b1ca0fa00d5d3de3ee45b8ec06f1b7b.html

  168. Robots Invade the Construction Site

  169. a78cc766aa599ab0fa5f31daeffec8ed6f658450.html

  170. You Can Now Buy Spot the Robot Dog—If You’ve Got $74,500

  171. 6b01f088e5ae5fbb5d05533fedcd8a928b108b49.html

  172. The Robots Are Coming for Garment Workers. That’s Good for the U.S., Bad for Poor Countries: Automation Is Reaching into Trades That Once Seemed Immune, Transforming Sweatshops in Places like Bangladesh and Bringing Production back to America

  173. Automation

  174. design#future-tag-features

    [Transclude the forward-link's context]

  175. 2023-boone-figure3-replacementofhorsesandmulesbytrucksandtractorsinamerica1900to2000.jpg

  176. 2023-brynjolfsson-w31161-improvementincustomercomplaintresolutionperhourusinggpt3.jpg

  177. 2023-debrouwer-figure4-resultsofencouragingunemployedtofindjobsdrivesthemintodisabilityinsurance.jpg

  178. 2022-01-07-xkcd-2565-latency.png

  179. 2021-handwerker-figure2-panelb-flatterstartupmanagementovertime.png

  180. 2021-kunn-figure1-eliterapidchessperformanceonlineduringcovid19.jpg

  181. http://www.tobyord.com/writing/a-childs-plaything

  182. https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2022/11/the-long-slow-death-of-global-development/

  183. https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/the-marginal-revolution-is-dead

  184. https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2023/12/report-google-ads-restructure-could-replace-some-sales-jobs-with-ai/

  185. https://cacm.acm.org/research/the-decline-of-computers-as-a-general-purpose-technology/

  186. https://danluu.com/diseconomies-scale/

  187. https://fullfrontal.moe/animes-present-and-future-interview-with-terumi-nishii-and-ayano-fukumiya/

  188. https://loeber.substack.com/p/15-maybe-you-should-invest-in-translation

  189. https://markusstrasser.org/extracting-knowledge-from-literature/

  190. https://martinfowler.com/bliki/ConwaysLaw.html

  191. https://medium.com/@Vinylmint/history-of-the-record-industry-1920-1950s-6d491d7cb606

  192. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36036635

  193. f4a1f7363138e6a3248ae5cf5587613ee427fb4e.html

  194. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/hec.4361

  195. https://outlast.me/robot-hiveminds-with-network-effects/

  196. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4594466

  197. https://quillette.com/2022/07/21/steam-electricity-slavery-and-societal-sustainability/

  198. https://qz.com/1419418/uniqlo-cut-90-of-staff-at-one-warehouse-by-replacing-them-with-robots/

  199. 3116a149124a105d994b7fcc0850f591acfebb0e.html

  200. https://reallifemag.com/perpetual-motion-machines/

  201. 8302b4c24d2e6702ce6313eda137a0256fc2756d.html

  202. https://restofworld.org/2022/china-romance-novels/

  203. https://restofworld.org/2023/youtube-thumbnail-ai/

  204. https://richardkatz.substack.com/p/2025-digital-cliff-part-i

  205. https://richardkatz.substack.com/p/metis-2025-digital-cliff-part-ii

  206. https://richardkatz.substack.com/p/metis-2025-digital-cliff-part-iii

  207. https://sergey.substack.com/p/whats-the-price-elasticity-of-demand

  208. https://sifted.eu/articles/cala-robot/

  209. cfa5dcccb7b9993e1c19ca8008eccd281ddbcb1e.html

  210. https://worksinprogress.co/issue/the-beauty-of-concrete/

  211. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-40673694

  212. https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-02-09/lessons-from-a-slow-motion-robot-takeover

  213. https://www.construction-physics.com/p/what-happened-to-the-us-machine-tool

  214. ade299e01fd4db6210bbef549637e6cb0f64f319.html

  215. https://www.construction-physics.com/p/where-do-economies-of-scale-come

  216. https://www.economist.com/business/2024/02/29/how-businesses-are-actually-using-generative-ai

  217. https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2024/january/does-working-from-home-boost-productivity-growth/

  218. 0282d5e6e863c0f88a3df6c7b343a9da57b03148.html

  219. https://www.melconway.com/Home/Committees_Paper.html

  220. https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/the-rise-and-fall-of-getting-things-done

  221. https://www.npr.org/2023/01/25/1151435033/a-robot-was-scheduled-to-argue-in-court-then-came-the-jail-threats

  222. https://www.overcomingbias.com/2020/08/remote-work-specializes.html

  223. https://www.reddit.com/r/duolingo/comments/18sx06i/big_layoff_at_duolingo/

  224. d54e76c26d5f82708508c43bef4f600587c822dc.html

  225. https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1fmwqfj/what_are_your_most_funlucrative_financial_hustle/lody9b1/

  226. d3c032a3b0047b7239fcb91eb94ca7b06685544b.html

  227. https://www.secondbest.ca/p/the-limits-of-explosive-growth

  228. 96f56962abfe15b24fc5fd1bb1401665ec368421.html

  229. https://www.stockperformer.com/blog/is-ai-killing-the-stock-industry-a-data-perspective/

  230. 1acf612b93a0d432508a5ff781b5c726d1e7356e.html

  231. https://www.theregister.com/2016/07/06/researchers_create_robotic_rectum_for_science/

  232. https://www.vice.com/en/article/v7begx/overemployed-hustlers-exploit-chatgpt-to-take-on-even-more-full-time-jobs

  233. https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24108787/ai-economic-growth-explosive-automation

  234. https://www.wired.com/story/china-chatgpt-opportunists-grifters-hard-at-work/

  235. https://www.wired.com/story/dog-poodemic-robots-drones/

  236. f762eb9902f19e4b0806b2bc75250a9033e01f27.html

  237. https://www.wired.com/story/why-the-floppy-disk-just-wont-die/

  238. https://www.wsj.com/articles/craftsman-america-wrench-stanley-black-decker-reshoring-factory-1125792f

  239. https://www.wsj.com/articles/meatpackers-covid-safety-automation-robots-coronavirus-11594303535

  240. https://www.wsj.com/articles/restaurant-robots-kitchen-labor-shortage-11628290623

  241. https://www.wsj.com/business/meet-the-robots-slicing-your-barbecue-ribs-338a7794

  242. 9416e91eb1c4f533e70b14f82cfe6802cab487f5.html

  243. https://x.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1740524282390941900

  244. https://x.com/ID_AA_Carmack/status/1636043611266490368

  245. https://x.com/klarnaseb/status/1795540481138397515

  246. https://x.com/tamaybes/status/1810818412433850684

  247. https://xkcd.com/1205/

  248. Election Workers Are Drowning in Records Requests. AI Chatbots Could Make It Worse: Experts worry that election deniers could weaponize chatbots to overwhelm and slow down local officials

  249. https%253A%252F%252Fwww.wired.com%252Fstory%252Fai-chatbots-foia-requests-election-workers%252F.html

  250. Answering the Call of Automation: How the Labor Market Adjusted to Mechanizing Telephone Operation

  251. %252Fdoc%252Feconomics%252Fautomation%252F2024-feigenbaum.pdf.html

  252. Who Is AI Replacing? The Impact of Generative AI on Online Freelancing Platforms

  253. https%253A%252F%252Fpapers.ssrn.com%252Fsol3%252Fpapers.cfm%253Fabstract_id%253D4602944.html

  254. Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI

  255. https%253A%252F%252Farxiv.org%252Fabs%252F2401.02843.html

  256. Combining Human Expertise with Artificial Intelligence: Experimental Evidence from Radiology

  257. https%253A%252F%252Fwww.nber.org%252Fpapers%252Fw31422.html

  258. When and How Artificial Intelligence Augments Employee Creativity

  259. %252Fdoc%252Feconomics%252Fautomation%252F2023-jia.pdf.html

  260. GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models

  261. https://www.danielianrock.com/

  262. https%253A%252F%252Farxiv.org%252Fabs%252F2303.10130.html

  263. GPT-3 as Knowledge Worker: A Zero-Shot Evaluation of AI CPA Capabilities

  264. https%253A%252F%252Farxiv.org%252Fabs%252F2301.04408.html

  265. Hyperspecialization and hyperscaling: A resource-based theory of the digital firm

  266. https%253A%252F%252Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%252Fdoi%252Ffull%252F10.1002%252Fsmj.3365.html

  267. Technological change and obsolete skills: Evidence from men’s professional tennis

  268. %252Fdoc%252Feconomics%252Fautomation%252F2021-fillmore.pdf.html

  269. On the Opportunities and Risks of Foundation Models

  270. Michael Bernstein

  271. Stefano Ermon

  272. Yuhuai (Tony) Wu’s Home Page

  273. Percy Liang

  274. https%253A%252F%252Farxiv.org%252Fabs%252F2108.07258.html

  275. ChinAI #137: Year 3 of ChinAI: Reflections on the newsworthiness of machine translation

  276. https%253A%252F%252Fchinai.substack.com%252Fp%252Fchinai-137-year-3-of-chinai.html

  277. Film Festivals Are Evolving for the Better: COVID-19 is making big, week-long gatherings of cinephiles complicated, if not impossible. What emerges in their place could change the cinema landscape

  278. https%253A%252F%252Fwww.wired.com%252Fstory%252Ffilm-festivals-hybrid%252F.html

  279. ‘What’s Wrong With The Way I Talk?’ The Effect Of Sound Motion Pictures On Actor Careers

  280. %252Fdoc%252Feconomics%252Fautomation%252F2019-hanssen.pdf.html

  281. Before The Startup

  282. https%253A%252F%252Fpaulgraham.com%252Fbefore.html.html

  283. InterNyet: why the Soviet Union did not build a nationwide computer network

  284. %252Fdoc%252Fpolitics%252F2008-gerovitch.pdf.html

  285. Technical Change, Inequality, and the Labor Market

  286. %252Fdoc%252Feconomics%252Fautomation%252F2002-acemoglu.pdf.html

  287. Survey finds low office productivity linked to staffing imbalances

  288. %252Fdoc%252Fpsychology%252Fwriting%252F1992-sassone.pdf.html