Bibliography:

  1. ‘AI scaling’ tag

  2. ‘AlphaFold’ tag

  3. ‘Codex’ tag

  4. ‘experience curves’ tag

  5. ‘DeepMind’ tag

  6. ‘OA’ tag

  7. The State of Chinese AI

  8. Hardware Hedging Against Scaling Regime Shifts

  9. Laws of Tech: Commoditize Your Complement

  10. The Hyperbolic Time Chamber & Brain Emulation

  11. Why Tool AIs Want to Be Agent AIs

  12. Slowing Moore’s Law: How It Could Happen

  13. Why a US AI "Manhattan Project" could backfire: notes from conversations in China

  14. [Amazon to Invest Another $4 Billion in Anthropic; Anthropic to Use Trainium Chips]

  15. Letter from Shanghai: Reflections on China in 2024—#73 § culture of science in China & AI arms races

  16. Business Spending on AI Surged 500% This Year to $13.8 Billion

  17. Long Context RAG Performance of Large Language Models

  18. Alphabet Q3 Earnings Call: CEO Sundar Pichai’s Remarks

  19. Model Equality Testing: Which Model Is This API Serving?

  20. Memorandum on Advancing the United States’ Leadership in Artificial Intelligence

  21. ‘King of the geeks’: how Alex Gerko built a British trading titan: XTX Markets conquered foreign exchange trading and made its Russian-born founder a multibillion-pound fortune

  22. A Single Cloud Compromise Can Feed an Army of AI Sex Bots

  23. Constellation Energy to Restart Three Mile Island Nuclear Power Plant & Sell All Power to Microsoft for Datacenter

  24. Nvidia’s AI chips are cheaper to rent in China than US: Supply of processors helps Chinese start-ups advance artificial intelligence technology despite Washington’s restrictions

  25. OpenAI co-founder Sutskever’s new safety-focused AI startup SSI raises $1 billion

  26. How to Lose Money on the World’s Most Popular Investment Theme: Pity the investors in the three artificial-intelligence-themed ETFs that managed to lose money this year

  27. Is Xi Jinping an AI doomer? China’s elite is split over artificial intelligence

  28. AI-powered coding pulls in almost $1bn of funding to claim ‘killer app’ status

  29. Chips or Not, Chinese AI Pushes Ahead: A host of Chinese AI startups are attempting to write more efficient code for large language models

  30. Can AI Scaling Continue Through 2030?

  31. 5c00a88806d4f5be233a817b199df13bc601f299.html

  32. An Update to Adept [Amazon acquihire]

  33. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei on Being an Underdog, AI Safety, and Economic Inequality

  34. Development cost of ARC GPT-4o prototype

  35. OpenAI’s Colin Jarvis predicts "exponential" advancements in large language model capabilities during AI Summit London keynote

  36. Apple to ‘Pay’ OpenAI for ChatGPT Through Distribution, Not Cash

  37. New AI battle adopts old price war strategy as Chinese tech giants keep start-ups at bay behind the Great Firewall

  38. China’s latest answer to OpenAI is ‘Chat Xi PT’: Internet regulator uses Chinese leader’s political philosophy to help answer questions posed to latest large language model

  39. Meet Facebook’s AI lobbying army: With 30 lobbyists & 7 agencies, the company is primed to push its agenda on Washington

  40. Where Does China Stand In the Current AI Wave? China’s top policy experts discuss the US-China gap, open vs. closed, and societal implications

  41. Paper Tiger? Chinese Science and Home Bias in Citations

  42. Sam Altman Invests in Energy Startup Focused on AI Data Centers: Investment by OpenAI CEO highlights artificial intelligence’s electricity appetite

  43. Now Hiring: Sophisticated (but Part-Time) Chatbot Tutors: The human work of teaching A.I. is getting a lot more complex as the technology improves

  44. How Tech Giants Cut Corners to Harvest Data for AI: OpenAI, Google and Meta ignored corporate policies, altered their own rules and discussed skirting copyright law as they sought online information to train their newest artificial intelligence systems

  45. Inside Big Tech’s underground race to buy AI training data

  46. A Peter Thiel-Backed AI Startup, Cognition Labs, Seeks $2 Billion Valuation: Funding round could increase startup’s valuation nearly sixfold in a matter of weeks, reflecting AI frenzy

  47. Microsoft, OpenAI plan $100 billion data-center project, media report says

  48. Stability AI Announcement

  49. Anthropic is lining up a new slate of investors, but the AI startup has ruled out Saudi Arabia

  50. The NSA Warns That US Adversaries Free to Mine Private Data May Have an AI Edge: Gilbert Herrera, who leads research at the National Security Agency, says large language models are incredibly useful—and a bit of a headache—for America’s intelligence machine

  51. China said to fall short of matching US advances in AI owing to ‘many challenges in theory and technologies’

  52. Marc Andreessen Eats Washington

  53. The carbon emissions of writing and illustrating are lower for AI than for humans

  54. Beyond Chinchilla-Optimal: Accounting for Inference in Language Model Scaling Laws

  55. Training Stable Diffusion from Scratch Costs <$160k

  56. Generative AI Beyond LLMs: System Implications of Multi-Modal Generation

  57. ByteDance is secretly using OpenAI’s tech to build a competitor

  58. Politics and the Future

  59. Real-Time AI & The Future of AI Hardware

  60. Google now spends more on compute than on people

  61. Microsoft Swallows OpenAI’s Core Team § Compute Is King

  62. Market Concentration Implications of Foundation Models

  63. OpenAI Seeks New Valuation of Up to $90 Billion in Sale of Existing Shares

  64. Insights into Stack Overflow’s traffic: We’re setting the record straight

  65. LLMs as Workers in Human-Computational Algorithms? Replicating Crowdsourcing Pipelines with LLMs

  66. Are Large Language Models a Threat to Digital Public Goods? Evidence from Activity on Stack Overflow

  67. He Spent $140 Billion on AI With Little to Show. Now He Is Trying Again. Billionaire Masayoshi Son said he would make SoftBank ‘the investment company for the AI revolution’, but he missed out on the most recent frenzy

  68. The 26-year-old CEO who became Washington’s AI whisperer

  69. Inflection AI announces $1.3 billion of funding led by current investors, Microsoft, and NVIDIA

  70. Why YouTube Could Give Google an Edge in AI

  71. Microsoft and OpenAI Forge Awkward Partnership as Tech’s New Power Couple: As the companies lead the AI boom, their unconventional arrangement sometimes causes conflict

  72. Scale AI CEO Says US Risks Losing AI ‘Ammunition’ Edge to China

  73. LTX by Broadridge Launches BondGPT™ Powered by OpenAI GPT-4

  74. The AI Boom Runs on Chips, but It Can’t Get Enough: ‘It’s like toilet paper during the pandemic.’ Startups, investors scrounge for computational firepower

  75. China Says Chatbots Must Toe the Party Line: The Communist Party outlined draft rules that would set guardrails on the rapidly growing industry of services like ChatGPT

  76. AI is taking the jobs of Kenyans who write essays for US college students: Ghostwriters say the meteoric rise of ChatGPT has coincided with a drop in income

  77. In AI Race, Microsoft and Google Choose Speed Over Caution: Technology companies were once leery of what some artificial intelligence could do. Now the priority is winning control of the industry’s next big thing

  78. China’s answer to ChatGPT? Baidu shares tumble as Ernie Bot disappoints

  79. Salesforce Announces Einstein GPT, the World’s First Generative AI for CRM

  80. China tells big tech companies not to offer ChatGPT services: State media outlet blasts chatbot as spreading US government ‘misinformation’

  81. Context on the NVIDIA ChatGPT opportunity—and ramifications of large language model enthusiasm

  82. New Bing, and an Interview with Kevin Scott and Sam Altman About the Microsoft-OpenAI Partnership

  83. Microsoft thinks AI can beat Google at search—CEO Satya Nadella explains why: AI is coming for your browser, your social media, and your operating system, too

  84. OpenAI’s Sam Altman Talks ChatGPT And How Artificial General Intelligence Can ‘Break Capitalism’

  85. How ChatGPT Kicked Off an AI Arms Race: Even inside the company, the chatbot’s popularity has come as something of a shock

  86. Google is asking employees to test potential ChatGPT competitors, including a chatbot called 'Apprentice Bard'

  87. Anthropic, an AI Start-Up, Is Said to Be Close to Adding $300 Million: Anthropic specializes in generative artificial intelligence, a hot investment in Silicon Valley. The new funding could value the company at roughly $5 billion

  88. The inside story of ChatGPT: How OpenAI founder Sam Altman built the world’s hottest technology with billions from Microsoft

  89. Microsoft and OpenAI extend partnership

  90. General availability of Azure OpenAI Service expands access to large, advanced AI models with added enterprise benefits

  91. Microsoft Bets Big on the Creator of ChatGPT in Race to Dominate AI: As a new chatbot wows the world with its conversational talents, a resurgent tech giant is poised to reap the benefits while doubling down on a relationship with the start-up OpenAI

  92. Inside the structure of OpenAI’s looming new investment from Microsoft and VCs

  93. Microsoft + OpenAI: Inside Tech’s Hottest Romance. As Microsoft and OpenAI finalize a blockbuster financing round, a big question looms: Can both sides get what they want—and rocket ahead of rivals like Google—without things getting too complicated?

  94. Microsoft is weighing $10 billion investment in OpenAI, sources say

  95. Microsoft eyes $10 billion bet on ChatGPT

  96. A New Chat Bot Is a ‘Code Red’ for Google’s Search Business: A new wave of chat bots like ChatGPT use artificial intelligence that could reinvent or even replace the traditional internet search engine

  97. Here’s What I Saw at an AI Hackathon: AI gossip, celebrity sightings, tech trends—and some great projects

  98. 6 New Theories About AI: Software with superpowers § GPT-4

  99. TSMC Racing to 1nm, Investing $32 Billion for Fab: Report

  100. OpenAI, Valued at Nearly $20 Billion, in Advanced Talks with Microsoft For More Funding

  101. Programming Possibility: Kevin Scott on AI’s Impact on Cognitive Work

  102. Measuring the Carbon Intensity of AI in Cloud Instances

  103. Ethan Caballero on Private Scaling Progress

  104. Varuna: Scalable, Low-cost Training of Massive Deep Learning Models

  105. Sustainable AI: Environmental Implications, Challenges and Opportunities

  106. On the Opportunities and Risks of Foundation Models

  107. First-Generation Inference Accelerator Deployment at Facebook

  108. Ezra Klein Interviews Sam Altman

  109. Anthropic raises $124 million to build more reliable, general AI systems

  110. Research community dynamics behind popular AI benchmarks

  111. Cooperative AI Foundation (CAIF)

  112. Carbon Emissions and Large Neural Network Training

  113. ChinAI #137: Year 3 of ChinAI: Reflections on the newsworthiness of machine translation

  114. GPT-3 Powers the Next Generation of Apps: Over 300 applications are delivering GPT-3–powered search, conversation, text completion, and other advanced AI features through our API

  115. Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2021 § Chapter 2: Technical Performance

  116. f9adc64f9266c52eb7772f587ab83f5726b65ffc.pdf#page=41

  117. Organizational Update from OpenAI

  118. AI and Efficiency: We’re releasing an analysis showing that since 2012 the amount of compute needed to train a neural net to the same performance on ImageNet classification has been decreasing by a factor of 2 every 16 months

  119. Thoughts on OpenAI [redacted]

  120. AI and Compute

  121. OpenAI and Elon Musk § Tesla Merger Proposal

  122. TikTok Owner ByteDance Quietly Launched 4 Generative AI Apps Powered By OpenAI’s GPT

  123. Funding Safe AGI

  124. Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence

  125. Carl Shulman on the Economy and National Security After AGI

  126. How to Build a Startup Monopoly With GPT-3 (20 Techniques)

  127. Microsoft and OpenAI Partner to Propose Digital Transformation of Export Controls

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  129. Cohere

  130. A Call to Build Models Like We Build Open-Source Software

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  132. Trading Off Compute in Training and Inference

  133. Scale AI Secures $1B Funding at $14B Valuation As Its CEO Predicts Big Revenue Growth and Profitability by Year-End [On Very High Quality Data]

  134. Let’s Reproduce GPT-2 (1.6B): One 8×H100 Node, 24 Hours, $672

  135. NFDG [VC Firm]

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  137. Scale: The Data Platform for AI; High quality training and validation data for AI applications

  138. Stability AI CEO Resigns Because You Can’t Beat Centralized AI With More Centralized AI

  139. Introducing Adept

  140. AMA Conjecture, A New Alignment Startup

  141. Starting a Business Around GPT-3 Is a Bad Idea

  142. c98dd701cfb9bc9fc684403b1a9dd1b48f487b9b.html

  143. Anthropic Raises $124 Million to Build More Reliable, General AI Systems

  144. General Purpose Technologies and the Rise & Fall of Great Powers

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  146. How to Build a $20 Billion Semiconductor Fab

  147. Carl Shulman #2: AI Takeover, Bio & Cyber Attacks, Detecting Deception, & Humanity's Far Future

  148. The Emerging Age of AI Diplomacy: To Compete With China, the United States Must Walk a Tightrope in the Gulf

  149. Compute Funds and Pre-Trained Models

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  151. Counting AGIs

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  153. The Colliding Exponentials of AI

  154. AGI Will Drastically Increase Economies of Scale

  155. We Are Conjecture, A New Alignment Research Startup

  156. Two Interviews With the Founder of DeepSeek

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  158. Liability Regimes for AI

  159. FTC Is Investigating ChatGPT Maker

  160. US Clears Way for Antitrust Inquiries of Nvidia, Microsoft and OpenAI

  161. Energy Companies Turn to Robots to Install Solar Panels

  162. ChatGPT’s weekly users have doubled in less than a year: Now 200 million people use the AI chatbot each week

  163. Bill Gates Reveals Superhuman AI Prediction

  164. OpenAI now generates about 100 billion words per day

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  246. OpenAI co-founder Sutskever’s new safety-focused AI startup SSI raises $1 billion

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  248. How to Lose Money on the World’s Most Popular Investment Theme: Pity the investors in the three artificial-intelligence-themed ETFs that managed to lose money this year

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  252. AI-powered coding pulls in almost $1bn of funding to claim ‘killer app’ status

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  254. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei on Being an Underdog, AI Safety, and Economic Inequality

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  266. Sam Altman Invests in Energy Startup Focused on AI Data Centers: Investment by OpenAI CEO highlights artificial intelligence’s electricity appetite

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  277. The NSA Warns That US Adversaries Free to Mine Private Data May Have an AI Edge: Gilbert Herrera, who leads research at the National Security Agency, says large language models are incredibly useful—and a bit of a headache—for America’s intelligence machine

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  283. Training Stable Diffusion from Scratch Costs <$160k

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  294. He Spent $140 Billion on AI With Little to Show. Now He Is Trying Again. Billionaire Masayoshi Son said he would make SoftBank ‘the investment company for the AI revolution’, but he missed out on the most recent frenzy

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  298. Why YouTube Could Give Google an Edge in AI

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  306. China Says Chatbots Must Toe the Party Line: The Communist Party outlined draft rules that would set guardrails on the rapidly growing industry of services like ChatGPT

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  322. OpenAI’s Sam Altman Talks ChatGPT And How Artificial General Intelligence Can ‘Break Capitalism’

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  328. Anthropic, an AI Start-Up, Is Said to Be Close to Adding $300 Million: Anthropic specializes in generative artificial intelligence, a hot investment in Silicon Valley. The new funding could value the company at roughly $5 billion

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  333. General availability of Azure OpenAI Service expands access to large, advanced AI models with added enterprise benefits

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  335. Microsoft Bets Big on the Creator of ChatGPT in Race to Dominate AI: As a new chatbot wows the world with its conversational talents, a resurgent tech giant is poised to reap the benefits while doubling down on a relationship with the start-up OpenAI

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  363. Carbon Emissions and Large Neural Network Training

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  365. ChinAI #137: Year 3 of ChinAI: Reflections on the newsworthiness of machine translation

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  367. GPT-3 Powers the Next Generation of Apps: Over 300 applications are delivering GPT-3–powered search, conversation, text completion, and other advanced AI features through our API

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  369. AI and Compute

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