“Goodbye 2010”, 2010-10-10 (; backlinks; similar):
It’s been a very eventful year for me, both personally and on the work front. I keep my personal life off this blog, and as for work… um, substantial things are happening but I’m not ready to talk about them yet. 🙂
My longest running prediction, since 1999, has been the time until roughly human level AGI. It’s been consistent since then, though last year I decided to clarify things a bit and put down an actual distribution and some parameters. Basically, I gave it a log-normal distribution with a mean of 2028, and a mode of 2025.
Over the last year computer power has increased as expected, and so it looks like we’re still on target to have supercomputers with 1018 FLOPS around 2018. In terms of neuroscience and machine learning, I think things are progressing well, maybe a little faster than I’d expected. I was toying with the idea of moving the prediction very slightly closer, but decided to play it safe and keep the prediction unmoved at 2028. With many people thinking I’m too optimistic, showing restraint is perhaps wise. 🙂 I can always move my prediction nearer in a year or two.
[Legg, 2023-08-19 (4,697 days later): “I’m pretty happy with how well this prediction has held up so far.”]
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