“GPT-4 Rumors From Silicon Valley: People Are Saying Things…”, Alberto Romero2022-11-11 ()⁠:

People have been talking these months. What I’ve heard from several sources: GPT-4 is almost ready and will be released (hopefully) sometime December-February [2023].

“OpenAI started to train GPT-4. Release is planned for Dec–Feb [2023].” —Igor Baikov (2022-09-02).

“I have a friend who works on it and he said it’s as incredible a step up as GPT-3 was.” —Robert Scoble (2022-09-02).

…An open secret: GPT-4 is almost ready: I first heard OpenAI was giving GPT-4 beta access to a small group close to the company on August 20, when Robert Scoble tweeted these:

This is, of course, anecdotal evidence. It could very well be biased by excitement, cherry-picking, or the lack of a reliable testing method.

“A friend has access to GPT-4 and can’t talk about it due to NDAs. Was about to tell me everything about it and then remembered who he was talking to. His emotion alone told me it is next level…He said it is just as exciting a Leap as GPT-3 was. Insane.” —Robert Scoble (2022-08-20).

But, if GPT-4 is to GPT-3 what GPT-3 was to GPT-2—which isn’t at all unreasonable given that OpenAI took its time with this one—this is big news. Think about it: as models improve, we need larger leaps in performance to feel a similar degree of excitement. Thus, if we assume Scoble’s source relies mainly on perception (in contrast to rigorous scientific assessment) those claims may imply a substantially larger leap than GPT-2 → GPT-3.

On November 8 Scoble did it again: “Disruption is coming. GPT-4 is better than anyone expects. And it is one of several such AIs that will ship next year.”.

More hype. Two days ago, Altman tweeted this not-so-cryptic captioned image: “don’t be too proud of this technological terror you’ve constructed. The ability to pass the Turing test is insignificant next to the power of the Force.” [“I meant it as a joke about how I think people are (correctly) realizing the Turing test is a bad test. I regret the tweet, but I’ll leave it up in the spirit of leaving my Ls.”]

Even with NDAs hiding the good stuff, I had access to a more detailed description of what GPT-4 will (may) be like. I can’t personally assess the reliability of the source (it was shared in a private subreddit). And neither can Gwern, who shared it (he said: “No idea how reliable”). It may not be (completely) true but it’s the best we’ve got. Take it with a (big) grain of salt [from Russian Telegram]:

OpenAI started training GPT-4. The training will be completed in a couple of months. I can’t say more so as not to create problems .. But what you should know:

PS: where is the info from? ..from there. do I trust it myself? Well, in some ways yes, in some ways no. my job is to tell, yours is to refuse