“The Messy, Secretive Reality behind OpenAI’s Bid to save the World: The AI Moonshot Was Founded in the Spirit of Transparency. This Is the inside Story of How Competitive Pressure Eroded That Idealism”, 2020-02-17 (; backlinks):
There are two prevailing technical theories about what it will take to reach AGI. In one, all the necessary techniques already exist; it’s just a matter of figuring out how to scale and assemble them. In the other, there needs to be an entirely new paradigm; deep learning, the current dominant technique in AI, won’t be enough. Most researchers fall somewhere between these extremes, but OpenAI has consistently sat almost exclusively on the scale-and-assemble end of the spectrum. Most of its breakthroughs have been the product of sinking dramatically greater computational resources into technical innovations developed in other labs.
Brockman and Sutskever deny that this is their sole strategy, but the lab’s tightly guarded research suggests otherwise. A team called “Foresight” runs experiments to test how far they can push AI capabilities forward by training existing algorithms with increasingly large amounts of data and computing power. For the leadership, the results of these experiments have confirmed its instincts that the lab’s all-in, compute-driven strategy is the best approach. For roughly six months, these results were hidden from the public because OpenAI sees this knowledge as its primary competitive advantage. Employees and interns were explicitly instructed not to reveal them, and those who left signed nondisclosure agreements. It was only in January that the team, without the usual fanfare, quietly posted a paper on one of the primary open-source databases for AI research. People who experienced the intense secrecy around the effort didn’t know what to make of this change. Notably, another paper with similar results from different researchers had been posted a month earlier.
…One of the biggest secrets is the project OpenAI is working on next. Sources described it to me as the culmination of its previous four years of research: an AI system trained on images, text, and other data using massive computational resources. A small team has been assigned to the initial effort, with an expectation that other teams, along with their work, will eventually fold in. On the day it was announced at an all-company meeting, interns weren’t allowed to attend. People familiar with the plan offer an explanation: the leadership thinks this is the most promising way to reach AGI. [See DALL·E 1, CLIP.]
…The man driving OpenAI’s strategy is Dario Amodei, the ex-Googler who now serves as research director. When I meet him, he strikes me as a more anxious version of Brockman. He has a similar sincerity and sensitivity, but an air of unsettled nervous energy. He looks distant when he talks, his brows furrowed, a hand absentmindedly tugging his curls. Amodei divides the lab’s strategy into two parts. The first part, which dictates how it plans to reach advanced AI capabilities, he likens to an investor’s “portfolio of bets.” Different teams at OpenAI are playing out different bets. The language team, for example, has its money on a theory postulating that AI can develop a substantial understanding of the world through mere language learning. The robotics team, in contrast, is advancing an opposing theory that intelligence requires a physical embodiment to develop. As in an investor’s portfolio, not every bet has an equal weight. But for the purposes of scientific rigor, all should be tested before being discarded. Amodei points to GPT-2, with its remarkably realistic auto-generated texts, as an instance of why it’s important to keep an open mind. “Pure language is a direction that the field and even some of us were somewhat skeptical of”, he says. “But now it’s like, ‘Wow, this is really promising.’” Over time, as different bets rise above others, they will attract more intense efforts. Then they will cross-pollinate and combine. The goal is to have fewer and fewer teams that ultimately collapse into a single technical direction for AGI. This is the exact process that OpenAI’s latest top-secret project has supposedly already begun.