[curse of dimensionality: calculating out some extremes for those who need some concrete numbers] Cognitive biases can lead to overestimating the expected prevalence of exceptional multi-talented candidates, leading to potential dissatisfaction in recruitment contexts.
This study aims to accurately estimate the odds of finding individuals who excel across multiple correlated dimensions. According to the literature, the 3 key individual differences variables are intelligence, Conscientiousness, and Emotional Stability [Neuroticism].
Consequently, data were simulated using a multivariate normal distribution (n = 20 million), where the 3 variables were standardized (mean of 0 and SD of 1). The correlations were specified as: intelligence with Conscientiousness (−0.03), intelligence with Emotional Stability (0.07), and Conscientiousness with Emotional Stability (0.42). Cases were classified into 4 categories based on z-scores across the 3 dimensions: notable (≥ 0.0 SD), remarkable (≥ 1.0 SD), exceptional (≥ 2.0 SD), and profoundly exceptional (≥ 3.0 SD).
~16% of cases were classified as notable, 1% as remarkable, and only 0.0085% met the exceptional criterion of 2 SDs above the mean. Just 1 case was identified as profoundly exceptional.
These findings highlight the rarity of individuals excelling across multiple traits, suggesting a need to recalibrate recruitment expectations. Even moderately above-average individuals on these key dimensions may merit greater recognition due to their scarcity.
Note: n = 100,000; black markers indicate the 7 cases classified as exceptional (ie. scoring 2 SDs above the mean on all 3 dimensions). The right image presents the frontal view, while the left shows the bird’s-eye view.