“Attribution Bias in Major Decisions: Evidence from the United States Military Academy”, 2021-08 (; similar):
Using administrative data, we test for attribution bias in college major choice.
Students are conditionally randomly assigned to introductory course schedules.
The time at which an introductory course is taken affects subsequent major choices.
Students assigned to a 7:30 AM slot are 10% less likely to choose the related major.
We also find negative effects for a second source of fatigue (back-to-back courses).
Using administrative data, we study the role of attribution bias in a high-stakes, consequential decision: the choice of a college major. Specifically, we examine the influence of fatigue experienced during exposure to a general education course on whether students choose the major corresponding to that course.
To do so, we exploit the conditional random assignment of student course schedules at the United States Military Academy.
We find that students who are assigned to an early morning (7:30 AM) section of a general education course are roughly 10% less likely to major in that subject, relative to students assigned to a later time slot for the course. We find similar effects for fatigue generated by having one or more back-to-back courses immediately prior to a general education course that starts later in the day.
Finally, we demonstrate that the pattern of results is consistent with attribution bias and difficult to reconcile with competing explanations.
[Keywords: attribution bias, misattribution, college major choice]
…In this estimate we find that each immediately preceding course decreases the probability that a student selects a corresponding major by 7.94% or 0.15 percentage points (significant at the 5% level). In each column 2–3 of Panel B we control for unique course fixed effects, additionally including demographic controls in column 3. These specifications control for any classroom-specific variation such as the level of preparation and fatigue of the instructor, the light, smell, and temperature in the room, and the behavior of the students within the class. Both of these specifications provide consistent evidence that increasing the number of back-to-back courses before a class reduces the probability of majoring in a related subject. In column 2 we find that each immediately preceding course decreases the probability that a student chooses a narrowly defined corresponding major by 12.11% or 0.23 percentage points (significant at the 1% level). Adding demographic controls in column 3 does not change our estimates or precision.
[another fun randomization from the underappreciated US military academies!]
See Also:
“From Natural Variation to Optimal Policy? The Importance of Endogenous Peer Group Formation”
“Genetically Proxied Diurnal Preference, Sleep Timing, and Risk of Major Depressive Disorder”
“Interplay of chronotype and school timing predicts school performance”
“A national experiment reveals where a growth mindset improves achievement”
“The Temporal Dynamics of Opportunity Costs: A Normative Account of Cognitive Fatigue and Boredom”