“Politicizing Mask-Wearing: Predicting the Success of Behavioral Interventions among Republicans and Democrats in the US”, 2022-05-09 (; similar):
Scientists and policymakers seek to choose effective interventions that promote preventative health measures.
We evaluated whether academics, behavioral science practitioners, and laypeople (n = 1,034) were able to forecast the effectiveness of 7 different messages compared to a baseline message for Republicans and Democrats separately. These messages were designed to nudge mask-wearing attitudes, intentions, and behaviors.
When examining predictions across political parties, forecasters predicted larger effects than those observed for Democrats compared to Republicans and made more accurate predictions for Republicans compared to Democrats. These results are partly driven by a lack of nudge effects on Democrats, as reported in et al 2022.
Academics and practitioners made more accurate predictions compared to laypeople. Although forecasters’ predictions were correlated with the nudge interventions, all groups overestimated the observed results.
We discuss potential reasons for why the forecasts did not perform better and how more accurate forecasts of behavioral intervention outcomes could potentially provide insight that can help save resources and increase the efficacy of interventions.
See Also:
Behavioral scientists and laypeople misestimate societal effects of COVID-19
A 680,000-person megastudy of nudges to encourage vaccination in pharmacies
Megastudies improve the impact of applied behavioral science
Laypeople Can Predict Which Social-Science Studies Will Be Replicated Successfully
Do Political Elites Have Accurate Perceptions of Social Conditions?
What we can learn from five naturalistic field experiments that failed to shift commuter behavior