“Possible Takeaways from the Coronavirus Pandemic for Slow AI Takeoff”, Vika2020-05-31 (x-risk, sociology; backlinks; similar)⁠:

As the COVID-19 pandemic unfolds, we can draw lessons from it for managing future global risks, such as other pandemics, climate change, and risks from advanced AI…A key element in AI risk scenarios is the speed of takeoff—whether advanced AI is developed gradually or suddenly…slow AI takeoff is more likely than fast takeoff, but is not necessarily easier to manage, since it poses different challenges, such as large-scale coordination. This post expands on this point by examining some parallels between the coronavirus pandemic and a slow takeoff scenario. The upsides of slow takeoff include the ability to learn from experience, act on warning signs, and reach a timely consensus that there is a serious problem. I would argue that the COVID-19 pandemic had these properties, but most of the world’s institutions did not take advantage of them. This suggests that, unless our institutions improve, we should not expect the slow AI takeoff scenario to have a good default outcome.

1. Learning from experience… [none]

2. Warnings signs… [many]

3. Consensus on the problem… [none]

We can hope that the transformative technological change involved in the slow takeoff scenario will also help create more competent institutions without these weaknesses. We might expect that institutions unable to adapt to the fast pace of change will be replaced by more competent ones. However, we could also see an increasingly chaotic world where institutions fail to adapt without better institutions being formed quickly enough to replace them. Success in the slow takeoff scenario depends on institutional competence and large-scale coordination. Unless more competent institutions are in place by the time general AI arrives, it is not clear to me that slow takeoff would be much safer than fast takeoff.

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