https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/epgCXiv3Yy3qgcsys/you-can-t-predict-a-game-of-pinball#wjLFhiWWacByqyu6a (science, decision theory, forecasting)
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/epgCXiv3Yy3qgcsys/you-can-t-predict-a-game-of-pinball#wjLFhiWWacByqyu6a
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