“Towards Reproducible Brain-Wide Association Studies”, 2020-08-22 (; backlinks; similar):
Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) continues to drive many important neuroscientific advances. However, progress in uncovering reproducible associations between individual differences in brain structure/function and behavioral phenotypes (eg. cognition, mental health) may have been undermined by typical neuroimaging sample sizes (median n = 25)1,2.
Leveraging the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study3 (n = 11,878), we estimated the effect sizes and reproducibility of these brain-wide associations studies (BWAS) as a function of sample size.
The very largest, replicable brain-wide associations for univariate and multivariate methods werer = 0.14 andr = 0.34, respectively. In smaller samples, typical for brain-wide association studies (BWAS), irreproducible, inflated effect sizes were ubiquitous, no matter the method (univariate, multivariate).
Until sample sizes started to approach consortium-levels, BWAS were underpowered and statistical errors assured. Multiple factors contribute to replication failures4–6; here, we show that the pairing of small brain-behavioral phenotype effect sizes with sampling variability is a key element in wide-spread BWAS replication failure. Brain-behavioral phenotype associations stabilize and become more reproducible with sample sizes of N⪆2,000. While investigator-initiated brain-behavior research continues to generate hypotheses and propel innovation, large consortia are needed to usher in a new era of reproducible human brain-wide association studies.