“Hyperbolic Growth”, 2017-10-04 (; similar):
My view of the future is strongly influenced by the history of economic output. I think it’s instructive to look at the sequence of doubling times—how long did it take economic output to double, and then how long did it take it to double again, and so on? Here are the lengths of the first 8 doublings since 0 AD (followed by the year that the doubling ends):
1,000 (ending in 1000 AD)
600 (ending in 1570 AD)
200 (ending in 1765 AD)
100 (ending in 1860 AD)
40 (ending in 1900 AD)
40 (ending in 1940 AD)
20 (ending in 1960 AD)
15 (ending in 1975 AD)
20 (ending in 1995 AD)
- <20 (to present)
…We have been in a period of slowing growth for the last 40 years. That’s a long time, but looking over the broad sweep of history I still think the smart money is on acceleration eventually continuing, and seeing something like this (though I have little idea whether it will start in 2025 or 2045 or 2075 AD):
20 (ending in 2025 AD)
10 (ending in 2035 AD)
5 (ending in 2040 AD)
2 (ending in 2042 AD)
1 (ending in 2043 AD)
0.5 (ending in June 2043 AD)…
This is consistent with my view of particular technologies that are currently progressing rapidly (especially computing hardware, AI, robotics, and energy).