“Caffeine Wakeup Experiment”, Gwern2013-04-07 (R, caffeine, QS, Bayes, decision theory, power analysis, sleep)⁠:

Self-experiment on whether consuming caffeine immediately upon waking results in less time in bed & higher productivity. The results indicate a small and uncertain effect.

One trick to combat morning sluggishness is to get caffeine extra-early by using caffeine pills shortly before or upon trying to get up. From 2013–2014 I ran a blinded & placebo-controlled randomized experiment measuring the effect of caffeine pills in the morning upon awakening time and daily productivity. The estimated effect is small and the posterior probability relatively low, but a decision analysis suggests that since caffeine pills are so cheap, it would be worthwhile to conduct another experiment; however, increasing Zeo equipment problems have made me hold off additional experiments indefinitely.

• Pilot Analysis
• First Morning Caffeine Experiment
  • Analysis
    • Data Preparation
    • Bayesian Analysis
    • Decision Analysis