“Prediction Markets”, 2009-01-10 (; backlinks):
My prediction/betting strategies and track record, reflections on rationality, prediction judgments
I explain what I’ve learned from creating and judging thousands of predictions on personal and real-world matters: the challenges of maintenance, the limitations of prediction markets, the interesting applications to my other essays, skepticism about pundits and unreflective persons’ opinions, my own biases like optimism & planning fallacy, 3 very useful heuristics/approaches, and the costs of these activities in general. (Plus a geeky parody of Fate/Stay Night.)