“Statistical Notes § Oh Deer: Could Deer Evolve to Avoid Car Accidents?”, Gwern2014-07-17 (Haskell, JS, R, genetics, IQ, Bayes, causality, decision theory, order statistics, power analysis, survey; similar)⁠:

Miscellaneous statistical stuff

Can deer evolve under the selection pressure of car accidents to learn to avoid roads? Probably, but it’ll take a long time.

I’ve noticed while driving many deer corpses over the years. Cars seem like they could be a major source of deer mortality. If they are, deer might be evolving behavior to avoid cars. But deer/car accident rates appear stable or increasing (perhaps due to human population growth & construction). How fast would we expect to see any deer adaptation?

Looking at some of the mortality statistics, I model it as a liability threshold trait being selected on via truncation selection, and calculate some hypotheticals about whether and how fast they could adapt.

Teal deer: “of course, but it’d be slow.”

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• “Someone Should Do Something”: Wishlist of Miscellaneous Project Ideas
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• The Traveling Gerontologist Problem
• Bayes Nets
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• Genome Sequencing Costs
• Proposal: Hand-Counting Mobile App for More Fluid Group Discussions
• Air Conditioner Replacement
  • Parameters
  • Cost-Benefit
    • Discounting
  • Sensitivity Analysis
• Some Ways of Dealing With Measurement Error
• Value of Information: Clinical Prediction Instruments for Suicide
• Bayesian Model Averaging
• Dealing With All-Or-Nothing Unreliability of Data
  • Binomial
    • Binomial With Binary Unreliability
      • ABC
      • Mixture
      • Weakening Heuristic?
• Dysgenics Power Analysis
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  • Mutation Load
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    • Power Simulation
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• On the Value of New Statistical Methods
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• Expectations Are Not Expected Deviations and Large Number of Variables Are Not Large Samples
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• Oh Deer: Could Deer Evolve to Avoid Car Accidents?
• Evolution As Backstop for Reinforcement Learning
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