“Leaky Pipelines”, Gwern2014-11-27 (, , ; backlinks)⁠:

Many multi-step processes look like ‘leaky pipelines’, where a fractional loss/success happens at every step. Such multiplicative processes can often be modeled as a log-normal distribution (or power law), with counterintuitive implications like skewed output distributions and large final differences from small differences in per-step success rates.