“Bitter Melon for Blood Glucose”, 2015-09-14 ():
Analysis of whether bitter melon reduces blood glucose in one self-experiment and utility of further self-experimentation
I re-analyze a bitter-melon/blood-glucose self-experiment, finding a small effect of increasing blood glucose after correcting for temporal trends & daily variation, giving both frequentist & Bayesian analyses. I then analyze the self-experiment from a subjective Bayesian decision-theoretic perspective, cursorily estimating the costs of diabetes & benefits of intervention in order to estimate Value Of Information for the self-experiment and the benefit of further self-experimenting; I find that the expected value of more data (EVSI) is negative and further self-experimenting would not be optimal compared to trying out other anti-diabetes interventions.