“Genius Revisited Revisited § Replacing the SAT With PGSes”, Gwern2016-06-19 (R, heritability, SMPY, psychology, order statistics, power analysis)⁠:

A book study of surveys of the high-IQ elementary school HCES concludes that high IQ is not predictive of accomplishment; I point out that the disappointing results are consistent with the subjects not being geniuses due to regression to the mean (because of extremely early IQ tests) & small sample size.

Can the SAT’s role in university admissions be replaced in theory by powerful genetic predictors? The predictive validity of the SAT for academic success turns out to be lower than that of academic success’s heritability, implying it is possible.

• High IQ Background
• HCES Results
  • Disappointingly Average
  • Sample Size
  • Alumni
  • Weak Childhood IQ Scores: Regression To The Mean
    • More Precise Testing: High School Age
  • Implications for Gifted Education
  • Improving HCES?
• See Also
• External Links
• Appendix
  • Replacing the SAT With PGSes