“Embryo Selection For Intelligence”, Gwern2016-01-22 (R, economics, genetic correlation, decision theory, order statistics, power analysis, transhumanism; backlinks; similar)⁠:

A cost-benefit analysis of the marginal cost of IVF-based embryo selection for intelligence and other traits with 2016–2017 state-of-the-art

With genetic predictors of a phenotypic trait, it is possible to select embryos during an in vitro fertilization process to increase or decrease that trait. Extending the work of Shulman & Bostrom2014/Hsu2014, I consider the case of human intelligence using SNP-based genetic prediction, finding:

• a meta-analysis of GCTA results indicates that SNPs can explain >33% of variance in current intelligence scores, and >44% with better-quality phenotype testing

• this sets an upper bound on the effectiveness of SNP-based selection: a gain of 9 IQ points when selecting the top embryo out of 10

• the best 2016 polygenic score could achieve a gain of ~3 IQ points when selecting out of 10

• the marginal cost of embryo selection (assuming IVF is already being done) is modest, at $1,875.95^$1,500₂₀₁₆ + $250.13^$200₂₀₁₆ per embryo, with the sequencing cost projected to drop rapidly

• a model of the IVF process, incorporating number of extracted eggs, losses to abnormalities & vitrification & failed implantation & miscarriages from 2 real IVF patient populations, estimates feasible gains of 0.39 & 0.68 IQ points

• embryo selection is currently unprofitable (mean: −$447.73^$358₂₀₁₆) in the USA under the lowest estimate of the value of an IQ point, but profitable under the highest (mean: $7,791.44^$6,230₂₀₁₆). The main constraints on selection profitability is the polygenic score; under the highest value, the NPV EVPI of a perfect SNP predictor is $30.02^$24₂₀₁₆b and the EVSI per education/SNP sample is $88.79^$71₂₀₁₆k

• under the worst-case estimate, selection can be made profitable with a better polygenic score, which would require n > 237,300 using education phenotype data (and much less using fluid intelligence measures)

• selection can be made more effective by selecting on multiple phenotype traits: considering an example using 7 traits (IQ/height/BMI/diabetes/ADHD/bipolar/schizophrenia), there is a factor gain over IQ alone; the outperformance of multiple selection remains after adjusting for genetic correlations & polygenic scores and using a broader set of 16 traits.

• Overview of Major Approaches
• FAQ: Frequently Asked Questions
• Embryo Selection Cost-Effectiveness
  • Benefit
    • Value of IQ
    • Polygenic Scores For IQ
      • SNP
  • Cost Of Embryo Selection
    • Cost Of Polygenic Scores
      • SNP Cost Forecast
    • PGD Net Costs
  • Modeling Embryo Selection
    • Societal Effects
  • Cost-Benefit
    • Value of Information
      • Public Interest In Selection
      • VoI For USA IVF Population
  • Improvements
    • Overview of Selection Improvements
    • Limiting Step: Eggs Or Scores?
      • Optimal Stopping/Search
    • Multiple Selection
      • Multiple Selection On Independent Traits
      • Multiple Selection On Genetically Correlated Traits
  • Gamete Selection
    • Sperm Phenotype Selection
    • Chromosome Selection
  • Embryo Selection Versus Alternative Breeding Methods
  • Multi-Stage Selection
• Iterated Embryo Selection
  • Limits to Iterated Selection: The Paradox of Polygenicity
• Cloning
• See Also
• External Links
• Appendix
  • IQ/Income Bibliography
  • Plotz2005’, Gwern2016” id=”toc-the-genius-factory-plotz-2005”>The Genius Factory, Plotz2005
  • Kong Et Al 2017 Polygenic Score Decline Derivation
  • The Bell Curve, Murray & Herrnstein 1994_30ya: Dysgenics Opportunity Cost
  • Embryo Selection And Dynasties
    • Family Success As Sequential Liability-Threshold Model
      • Inferring Difficulty Of Adequate Succession
      • Solving For Average Length
    • Connection To Embryo Selection
      • Embryo Selection’s Benefits
  • Polygenic Scores In Plink
  • History of IES
  • Glue Robbers: Sequencing Nobelists Using Collectible Letters

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