“Embryo Selection For Intelligence § Glue Robbers: Sequencing Nobelists Using Collectible Letters”, Gwern2016-01-22 (R, economics, genetic correlation, decision theory, order statistics, power analysis, forecasting, transhumanism; similar)⁠:

A cost-benefit analysis of the marginal cost of IVF-based embryo selection for intelligence and other traits with 2016–2017 state-of-the-art

A major challenge in GWASes of cognitive traits like intelligence & personality is getting sufficient statistical power to produce results. Statistical power can be increased by increasing sample size, or increasing the ‘effect size’ (ie. size of differences). One way of increasing effect size is collecting extreme datapoints, such as the extremely-high IQ SMPY/TIP samples for comparison with a baseline group. As such datapoints are by definition rare, they are hard to collect in bulk. This is true for other cognitive traits such as personality, ambition, accomplishment, scientific breakthroughs—all surely connected, but even harder to screen for & collect.

The increasing power of DNA sequencing methods means that as of 2018, one can extract & sequence DNA from envelopes & postal stamps which are decades or centuries old. This is legally permissible, and many such envelopes & stamps from historical figures can be bought for low prices.

This means that one can potentially genotype—in addition to everyone else in the past—the greatest minds in history and run analyses. They could be used as an ultra-highly-enriched sample in GWASes for intelligence or achievement with potentially high statistical power and combined with other datasets for further gains in PGSes.

• Overview of Major Approaches
• FAQ: Frequently Asked Questions
• Embryo Selection Cost-Effectiveness
  • Benefit
    • Value of IQ
    • Polygenic Scores For IQ
      • SNP
  • Cost Of Embryo Selection
    • Cost Of Polygenic Scores
      • SNP Cost Forecast
    • PGD Net Costs
  • Modeling Embryo Selection
    • Societal Effects
  • Cost-Benefit
    • Value of Information
      • Public Interest In Selection
      • VoI For USA IVF Population
  • Improvements
    • Overview of Selection Improvements
    • Limiting Step: Eggs Or Scores?
      • Optimal Stopping/Search
    • Multiple Selection
      • Multiple Selection On Independent Traits
      • Multiple Selection On Genetically Correlated Traits
  • Gamete Selection
    • Sperm Phenotype Selection
    • Chromosome Selection
  • Embryo Selection Versus Alternative Breeding Methods
  • Multi-Stage Selection
• Iterated Embryo Selection
  • Limits to Iterated Selection: The Paradox of Polygenicity
• Cloning
• See Also
• External Links
• Appendix
  • IQ/Income Bibliography
  • Plotz2005’, Gwern2016” id=”toc-the-genius-factory-plotz-2005”>The Genius Factory, Plotz2005
  • Kong Et Al 2017 Polygenic Score Decline Derivation
  • The Bell Curve, Murray & Herrnstein 1994_30ya: Dysgenics Opportunity Cost
  • Embryo Selection And Dynasties
    • Family Success As Sequential Liability-Threshold Model
      • Inferring Difficulty Of Adequate Succession
      • Solving For Average Length
    • Connection To Embryo Selection
      • Embryo Selection’s Benefits
  • Polygenic Scores In Plink
  • History of IES
  • Glue Robbers: Sequencing Nobelists Using Collectible Letters

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