“Embryo Selection For Intelligence § GCTA Meta-Analysis”, Gwern2016-01-22 (R, economics, genetic correlation, decision theory, order statistics, power analysis, forecasting, transhumanism; similar)⁠:

A cost-benefit analysis of the marginal cost of IVF-based embryo selection for intelligence and other traits with 2016–2017 state-of-the-art

Davies et al 2011’s 0.5 (50%) SNP heritability is outdated & small, based on n = 3,511 with correspondingly large imprecision in the GCTA estimates. We can do better by bringing it up to date incorporating the additional GCTAs which have been published since 2011_13ya through 2018.

Compiling 12 GCTAs, I find a meta-analytic estimate of SNPs can explain >33% of variance in current intelligence scores, and, adjusting for measurement error (as we care about the latent trait, not individual noisy measurements), >44% with better-quality phenotype testing.

• Overview of Major Approaches
• FAQ: Frequently Asked Questions
• Embryo Selection Cost-Effectiveness
  • Benefit
    • Value of IQ
    • Polygenic Scores For IQ
      • SNP
  • Cost Of Embryo Selection
    • Cost Of Polygenic Scores
      • SNP Cost Forecast
    • PGD Net Costs
  • Modeling Embryo Selection
    • Societal Effects
  • Cost-Benefit
    • Value of Information
      • Public Interest In Selection
      • VoI For USA IVF Population
  • Improvements
    • Overview of Selection Improvements
    • Limiting Step: Eggs Or Scores?
      • Optimal Stopping/Search
    • Multiple Selection
      • Multiple Selection On Independent Traits
      • Multiple Selection On Genetically Correlated Traits
  • Gamete Selection
    • Sperm Phenotype Selection
    • Chromosome Selection
  • Embryo Selection Versus Alternative Breeding Methods
  • Multi-Stage Selection
• Iterated Embryo Selection
  • Limits to Iterated Selection: The Paradox of Polygenicity
• Cloning
• See Also
• External Links
• Appendix
  • IQ/Income Bibliography
  • Plotz2005’, Gwern2016” id=”toc-the-genius-factory-plotz-2005”>The Genius Factory, Plotz2005
  • Kong Et Al 2017 Polygenic Score Decline Derivation
  • The Bell Curve, Murray & Herrnstein 1994_30ya: Dysgenics Opportunity Cost
  • Embryo Selection And Dynasties
    • Family Success As Sequential Liability-Threshold Model
      • Inferring Difficulty Of Adequate Succession
      • Solving For Average Length
    • Connection To Embryo Selection
      • Embryo Selection’s Benefits
  • Polygenic Scores In Plink
  • History of IES
  • Glue Robbers: Sequencing Nobelists Using Collectible Letters

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