“Embryo Selection For Intelligence § Embryo Selection And Dynasties”, Gwern2016-01-22 (R, economics, genetic correlation, decision theory, order statistics, power analysis, forecasting, transhumanism; similar)⁠:

A cost-benefit analysis of the marginal cost of IVF-based embryo selection for intelligence and other traits with 2016–2017 state-of-the-art

Genetic selection & engineering technologies, if banned or highly regulated, could exacerbate existing social inequality by increasing genetic differences between groups on key traits like intelligence or Conscientiousness or ethnocentrism and ensuring near-permanent continuity of wealth or power. Whether this is a serious problem quantitatively with feasible levels of embryo selection has not been much examined. I consider the specific scenario of a single family, such as a royal family or wealthy corporate owner, which wishes to increase the odds of succession to a sufficiently-competent heir who can maintain the dynasty. I suggest a toy model treating it as a repeated liability-threshold model in which heirs are selected as order statistics and if any heir is above a threshold, the dynasty survives another generation; given average numbers of generations and heirs, this defines an unique threshold of competence. Adding embryo selection turns this into a two-stage selection process. In some scenarios, assuming a threshold of ~+1SD and advanced polygenic scores for multiple selection, embryo selection could considerably increase the lifespan of a dynasty due to tail effects on the increased mean in each stage.

• Overview of Major Approaches
• FAQ: Frequently Asked Questions
• Embryo Selection Cost-Effectiveness
  • Benefit
    • Value of IQ
    • Polygenic Scores For IQ
      • SNP
  • Cost Of Embryo Selection
    • Cost Of Polygenic Scores
      • SNP Cost Forecast
    • PGD Net Costs
  • Modeling Embryo Selection
    • Societal Effects
  • Cost-Benefit
    • Value of Information
      • Public Interest In Selection
      • VoI For USA IVF Population
  • Improvements
    • Overview of Selection Improvements
    • Limiting Step: Eggs Or Scores?
      • Optimal Stopping/Search
    • Multiple Selection
      • Multiple Selection On Independent Traits
      • Multiple Selection On Genetically Correlated Traits
  • Gamete Selection
    • Sperm Phenotype Selection
    • Chromosome Selection
  • Embryo Selection Versus Alternative Breeding Methods
  • Multi-Stage Selection
• Iterated Embryo Selection
  • Limits to Iterated Selection: The Paradox of Polygenicity
• Cloning
• See Also
• External Links
• Appendix
  • IQ/Income Bibliography
  • Plotz2005’, Gwern2016” id=”toc-the-genius-factory-plotz-2005”>The Genius Factory, Plotz2005
  • Kong Et Al 2017 Polygenic Score Decline Derivation
  • The Bell Curve, Murray & Herrnstein 1994_30ya: Dysgenics Opportunity Cost
  • Embryo Selection And Dynasties
    • Family Success As Sequential Liability-Threshold Model
      • Inferring Difficulty Of Adequate Succession
      • Solving For Average Length
    • Connection To Embryo Selection
      • Embryo Selection’s Benefits
  • Polygenic Scores In Plink
  • History of IES
  • Glue Robbers: Sequencing Nobelists Using Collectible Letters

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